Population Growth and Economic Development Policy Questions (1986) / Chapter Skim
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2 Will slower population growth increase the growth rate of per capita income through increasing per capita availability of renewable resources?
2 Will slower population growth increase the growth rate of per capita income through increasing per capita availability of renewable resources?
Pages 18-34
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From page 18... ...
There are two mechanisms that can create a link between population size or grown rates and the availability of renewable resources. One can be termed the issue of diminishing returns.
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From page 19... ...
Although the economic relationships in each of these cases are complex, population size and growth play at least some role in the demand for these resources. DIMINISHING RETURNS TO LABOR IN AGRICULTURE Historical Responses to Diminishing Returns Lee relations between population and agricultural production are played out against a backdrop of static diminishing marginal returns to labor.
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From page 20... ...
However, Africa has a relatively high ratio of arable land to population, which suggests Cat He decline in per capita agricultural output reRects factors over than diminishing returns due to population grown. These factors reflect a host of human and institutional barriers to expanded output, including a very weak human resource base for agricultural research, extension, and entrepreneurship; overvalued foreign exchange rates
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From page 21... ...
argues in more general terms that institutional structures in developing countries create rigidities that prevent or inhibit the kind of adaptive responses to population pressure and market opportunities exhibited in Japan. Perhaps He most important contemporary country demonstrating diminishing returns to labor in agriculture is Bangladesh.
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From page 22... ...
Clearly, one must examine carefully the preconditions for intensified agriculture in a specific coundy before reaching a verdict on the long-term effects of population growth on its labor productivity in agriculture. Future Prospects for Agricultural Intensification It is important to note that many soils in tropical areas do not have the same capacity for intensified production as soils in temperate areas.
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From page 23... ...
To gain a sense of agricultural production possibilities under alternative techniques, Me U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)
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From page 24... ...
A county whose agricultural production falls below its population's needs for food is in critical shape only if it does not trade with other nations to satisfy its needs for food. The fact that many oil-exporting Middle Eastem countries appear on the critical list mikes clear the arbitrariness of a standard of self-sufficiency.
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From page 25... ...
There are many examples of agricultural production in developing countries responding to market opportunities. The building of railroads in Africa has typically led to intensified production techniques near railroad lines.
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From page 26... ...
Because of characteristics of agriculture, governments in general have a major role to play in agricultural research, particularly in the area of biological techniques. Some people have argued that farmer-generated technical changes do not appear capable of proceeding rapidly enough to keep pace with population grown Bengali and Binswanger, 1984)
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From page 27... ...
stress that "growing poverty and inequality will be an almost certain result if efforts to generate technical progress are insufficient to overcome the decreasing return to labor due to growing population pressure on land." One recent study in north India attempts to pull together evidence on the effect of agricultural population density on agricultural production in the area, including the responses that work through many of the factors considered above: research efforts, provision of credit, electrification, roads, irrigation, and intensity of land use (Evenson, 1984b)
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From page 28... ...
In this matter investments in land productivity do not differ from other forms of investment that increase future production capacity. If more rapid population grown is seen as extending into die future, landowners will have added incentives to invest in their land because He future market will be larger relative to the present one; but the supply of funds for investment may be reduced because more rapid growth increases current consumption demands.
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From page 29... ...
efforts to keep up with the doubling of world food demand since mid-centaly, many of the world's farmers have adopted agricultural production practices that are leading to excessive rates of soil erosion.', In a later article, Brown (1984) cites China, Nepal, Indonesia, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Pakistan, and Andean countries as areas where population pressure is resulting in excessive rates of soil erosion.
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From page 30... ...
In the meantime, however, it is possible that rapid population grown will exacerbate He tendency for a too rapid rate of land degradation on common lands. Over factors unrelated to population grown can also produce a deterioration
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From page 31... ...
experience with Heir own land and that extrapolations of their own expenence may be a poor guide to predicting future effects of intensified production. FORESTS AND FISHERIES There is increasing evidence of loss of forest reserves, although the author of one of the major survey efforts commissioned by the National Academy of Sciences (Myers, 1980)
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From page 32... ...
In Burkina Faso, there is considerable potential for soybean cultivation, but it is report that the shortage of firewood required in food preparation has helped prevent this potential from being realized (Kirchner et al., 19843. While an important aspect of fuelwood deforestation is linked to population pressure, it must be noted that low incomes are a more direct cause of the problem.
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From page 33... ...
First, if no other conditions of production change, expansion of the agricultural labor force probably reduces labor productivity and correspondingly lowers agricultural wages. Second, population grown can accelerate the degradation of renewable resources.
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From page 34... ...
The responses include intensified cropping practices; introduction of additional factors of production, such as fertilizer and irrigation; improved markets; and expanded research efforts. It is worthwhile noting that, with the important exception of Africa, per capita agricultural output has risen in most developing regions dun ng the recent period of rapid population growth.
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