Population Growth and Economic Development Policy Questions (1986) / Chapter Skim
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Conclusion
Conclusion
Pages 85-93
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From page 85... ...
EFFECTS OF SLOWER POPULATION GROWTH ON ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Following the framework set up in the Introduction, we consider how conditions are likely to differ if a country, through a government program, were to achieve and maintain lower fertilibr than it would otherwise have experienced (with constant mortality)
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From page 86... ...
If fertility declines are largest among highincome families, average levels of schooling and health among children could actually decrease despite an absolute improvement in measures of well-being among poor families. But if family planning programs result in larger fertilibr reductions among poorer families, the within-family gains will be accentuated at the societal level.
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From page 87... ...
We have found little evidence that the aggregate savings rate depends on growth rates or the age structure of a population. Assuming that the savings rate remains unchanged, a fertility decline will lead to an increase in the ratio of capital to labor and, along with it, labor productivity, wages, and per capita income.
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From page 88... ...
Such markets permit the initial effects of population growth to be registered in the fonn of price changes, which can trigger a variety of adjustments, including the introduction of other factors of production that have become more valuable as a result of the increase in population; a search for substitutes for increasingly scarce factors of production; intensified research to find production processes better suited to the new conditions; reallocation of resources toward sectors (e.g., food production) in which demand may be most responsive to population change; and so on.
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From page 89... ...
It is of interest to briefly examine and contrast Me interplay between population grown and institutions in two important areas, China and tropical Africa. China, with its extremely low arable landlpopulation ratio, is often seen as greatly in need of population control policies in order to boost per capita agricultural income; this view is reflected in the government's severe disincentives for large families.
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From page 90... ...
That these over devices exist does not imply a minimal role for population grown, but it does caution against advocacy of growth as the only way to achieve them. On balance, we reach the qualitative conclusion Cat slower population growth would be beneficial to economic development for most developing counties.
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From page 91... ...
POLICY IMPLICATIONS: THE ROLE OF FAMILY PLANNING We have stressed that population growth can exacerbate the ill effects of a variety of inefficient policies, such as urban bias in the provision of infrastructure, direct and indirect food subsidies Hat distort agricultural markets, credit market distortions, and inadequate management of common property. A fundamental solution to these problems lies in better policies outside the population arena.
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From page 92... ...
F~ermore, when health services are provided by government, an additional rationale for government family planning programs is that the services can be efficiently supplied by existing health pet sonnet (World Bank, 1984~. Finally, family planning programs are likely to be of more value to lower income groups than to higher income groups, who may have beKer access to private services, so government support for these programs can help to advance equity goals If people use the services and information supplied by government family planning programs and if fertility falls as a result, an obvious case can be made that the program has increased the private welfare of users by reducing the cost of fertility control and by reducing the gap between desired and achieved fertility.
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From page 93... ...
. When a couple's childbearing decision imposes external costs on other families-in overexploitation of common resources, congestion of public services, or contribution to a socially undesirable distribution of incomea case may be made for policies that go "beyond family planning." Such policies include persuasive campaigns to change family size norms and combinations of incentives and taxes related to family size.
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