Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty Interim Report 3 (1999) / Chapter Skim
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1 Introduction
1 Introduction
Pages 5-10
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From page 5... ...
Having the most up-to-date estimates possible is important so that resources can be directed toward areas that are most in need.1 1See National Research Council (1997:Ch.
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The allocation amounts for both basic and concentration grants depend primarily on the number of eligible children in a county or school district; they also take into consideration the state's average per-pupil expenditure.4 Currently, the formulas for basic and concentration grants include a 100 percent hold-harmless provision so that no county or school district may receive less than its previous year's allocation. Congress also authorized a study through the Department of Educationby a panel of the National Research Council's Committee on National Statistics to review the Census Bureau's small-area poverty estimates for school-age children.
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For this purpose, the Census Bureau provided county estimates of the number of children aged 5-17 inl994 from families with incomes below the poverty level in 1993.5 The estimates were developed from a statistical model that used administrative data from Internal Revenue Service and Food Stamp Program records for 1993, estimates of poor school-age children in 1989 from the 1990 census, and 1994 population estimates to predict county numbers of poor school-age children in 1993 as measured in the March Income Supplement to the Current Population Survey (CPS)
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As in the past, the states then allocated the county amounts to school districts. The states used a variety of data sources for these allocations: many states used 1990 census data wholly or in part; some states used such data sources as estimates of children enrolled in the National School Lunch Program or children in families receiving AFDC in each district.
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Largely because of these complicating factors, there is a paucity of data for developing updated poverty estimates at the school-district level: there are currently no school district equivalents of federal income tax return or Food Stamp Program data that are used in the Census Bureau's state and county estimation models. Because of the lack of data at the school district level, the Census Bureau's procedure for developing 1995 school district poverty estimates uses a simple model that assumes that the proportions or shares of poor school-age children in school districts within each county in 1995 are the same as they were in 1989 (as measured by the 1990 census)
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However, the estimation procedure does produce estimates more recent than the census, it is consistent across the nation, and it responds to the concern that concentration grants be directed to all eligible school districts, including those in counties that are not eligible. PLAN OF THE REPORT This, the panel's third interim report, assesses the Census Bureau's 1995 school district estimates for use in Title I allocations for the 1999-2000 school year.
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