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Ecological Knowledge and Environmental Problem-Solving Concepts and Case Studies (1986) / Chapter Skim
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8. Dealing with Uncertainty
Pages 88-92

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From page 88...
... We often lack the detailed information necessary for making accurate predictions, particularly under the unusual conditions that we impose on ecological systems. Several broad categories of uncertainty make the precise prediction of ecological changes difficult.
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From page 89...
... Fish populations can undergo rapid collapse when overharvested (Murphy, 1977; Ricker, 1963) , and lake communities can undergo distinct changes in composition when nutrient concentrations change (Chapter 204.
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From page 90...
... For example, independent observers counting migrating animals can disagree substantially if the animals pass them rapidly and in great numbers. Estimates of population size must often be made indirectly, as when fish catch statistics are used to estimate stock size (e.g., Chapter 121.
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From page 91...
... Lack of Knowledge We often lack experience with a particular type of environmental perturbation. When neither appropriate studies nor reliable theories or models are available, accurate prediction is not possible, and it might be necessary to conduct extensive ecological studies as an aid to management decisions.
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From page 92...
... Survival is a probabilistic affair, and one who would determine the minimal tolerable population size must decide for how many generations a species is to be protected and the acceptable probability of extinction. Such modeling efforts are usually limited to analyzing the effects of random error, but it is also possible to model systematic errors, in an attempt to identify potential causes of extinction.
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Key Terms

  • environmental changes
  • population size
  • predictive capability
  • ecological effects
  • monitoring studies

  • random error
  • ecological studies
  • basis seasonally
  • complicate assessment
  • undergo seasonal

  • independent observers
  • disagree substantially
  • migrating animals
  • measurement error
  • precise predictions

  • tolerable population
  • measures mean
  • managing ecological
  • constant throughout
  • severe storms

  • concentrations change
  • achieve maximal
  • accurate prediction
  • unexpected effects
  • counting migrating

  • commonly respond
  • undergo rapid
  • acceptable probability
  • nor reliable
  • shorter periods


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