Measuring a Changing Nation Modern Methods for the 2000 Census (1999) / Chapter Skim
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Executive Summary
Executive Summary
Pages 1-6
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The Census Bureau plans to introduce several new features for the 2000 census: enhanced procedures for developing the master address list to which census forms are mailed; modern mail survey techniques to enhance response, including revised forms and multiple mail contacts; making census forms available in a variety of public places; use of random sampling during nonresponse follow-up; an expanded coverage measurement survey of 750,000 housing units to obtain information about census coverage rates; and incorporation of the results of the nonresponse follow-up and the coverage measurement survey into the census counts using statistical estimation procedures.]
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The panel believes that it is critical to measure the effects of the use of an untargeted replacement form, especially its effects on respondent cooperation and the effectiveness of the unduplication process used for households that return both forms. An analysis of dress rehearsal results should be performed to help decide whether to use an untargeted replacement form in the 2000 census.
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As a result of this, and also due to the possibly higher quality of collected data resulting from the use of sampling, the panel believes that sampling for nonresponse follow-up will provide data of equal or better quality when used for congressional apportionment and that it will approximately replicate, at lower levels of aggregation, what would be obtained with 100 percent follow-up. The panel further concludes that the prespecified nature of the sampling design for nonresponse follow-up and the fact that enumerators will not know whether households they are not visiting are mail respondents or nonrespondents that are not sampled ensures that sampling does not present a new opportunity for manipulation of census counts by enumerators.
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After considering the criticisms related to the validity of, and the impact of departures from these assumptions, which have been used to argue against the use of integrated coverage measurement to produce official population counts, the panel concludes that the criticisms of this approach are not compelling reasons to halt plans to use integrated coverage measurement in 2000. If the Supreme Court prohibits use of integrated coverage measurement for apportionment, the panel still strongly supports a postenumeration survey of the currently budgeted size of 750,000, for purposes other than apportionment.
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The trace sample would provide information about phases of data collection, which would be extremely valuable in guiding future methodological advances. Planning for a decennial census begins at least 10 years before the first questionnaire is mailed.
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The evaluation studies based on the dress rehearsal will provide the final, important input to the decisions the Census Bureau must make as to the final plans for the 2000 census. The 37 evaluation studies are well designed, covering all aspects of census taking.
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