Measuring a Changing Nation Modern Methods for the 2000 Census (1999) / Chapter Skim
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2 Census Methodology
2 Census Methodology
Pages 24-36
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From page 24... ...
A poor address list can contribute greatly to increased rates and poor estimates of the rates of census omissions and erroneous enumerations, including duplicates. Also, to increase the level of confidence in decennial census procedures, local stakeholders officials, business leaders, interest group representatives must be convinced that the address lists for the 2000 census are better than the 1990 lists for their areas.
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From page 25... ...
In the development work and testing carried out before the dress rehearsal, replacement forms had been sent only to households that did not return the original form by a specified date. In developing operations for the 2000 census, the Census Bureau has learned that the scale of the decennial census and timing constraints will not permit the mailing of replacement forms only to nonrespondent households (a targeted replacement questionnaire)
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From page 26... ...
It is therefore critical that thorough evaluation of this procedure follow the 1998 census dress rehearsal on a schedule that allows the findings to influence plans for the 2000 census.2 SAMPLING FOR NONRESPONSE FOLLOW-UP In its first and second interim reports (National Research Council, 1996, 1997b) , the panel endorsed using sampling, combined with statistical estimation, to efficiently and effectively collect information on households that do not respond by mail or to other opportunities for enumeration.
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From page 27... ...
The Census Bureau has since modified the sampling plan for nonresponse follow-up so that census tracts with primary response rates of more than 85 percent will be sampled at a rate of 1 in 3. That rate, combined with the planned sampling rates for areas with lower initial response rates, means that most areas will have similar levels of sampling error.
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From page 28... ...
The less intense and uneven quality of past efforts to collect data from initial nonrespondents with 100 percent nonresponse follow-up resulted in the collection of Poorer oualitv data narticularlv because of relatively high rates J ' 1 J J to for proxy enumerations than would be achieved with a sample-based nonresponse follow-up. With sampling for nonresponse follow-up, the extent of proxy response could be considerably reduced, at the cost of adding sampling variability, which diminishes quickly with increasing population size.
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From page 29... ...
For another example, assume that the mail return rate is 65 percent, the standard error for the total population is 112, and nonresponse follow-up again has an error of 500, this time in counting the 35,000 nonresponding people for a miss rate of 1.43 percent. Sampling for nonresponse follow-up, in counting 25,000 people, would have lower mean square error if it missed (less than or equal to)
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From page 30... ...
Finally, it is important to state in response to this concern that the Census Bureau, except for a handful of top management positions, is staffed by career civil servants who have a long-standing reputation for integrity and professionalism. INTEGRATED COVERAGE MEASUREMENT Both because the master address list, despite the Census Bureau's best efforts, is incomplete and because individuals who live in otherwise enumerated households are at times missed, all decennial censuses fail to count everyone.
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From page 31... ...
, for whom the undercount was around 8.0 percent. Since the differential net undercoverage has persisted for some demographic groups, especially blacks, over several censuses, these groups have been consistently underrepresented in census figures, resulting in possible misallocations of political representation and government funds.6 Dual-System Estimation The decennial censuses from 1950 through 1990 all made use of various evaluation programs to assess the extent of gross and net census undercoverage and its causes.
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From page 32... ...
Census Bureau district office staff conducted a clerical match between census records and drivers' license records, immigration records, and (in New York City) welfare records.
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From page 33... ...
Finally, as we have noted, sampling for nonresponse follow-up has the promise of being able to conclude nonresponse follow-up more expeditiously. This, in turn, would permit the integrated coverage measurement survey interviewers to begin work earlier, which will reduce the number of individuals who have moved since the census, which will reduce the number of erroneous enumerations due to people being enumerated a second time at an address other than the census day address.
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From page 34... ...
The panel recognizes that a decennial census is constitutionally linked to the apportionment of political representation among the states, legally linked to the distribution of many types of federal funds, and used as a basis for forming congressional districts within states to conform to constitutional requirements. These links are the root of legal and constitutional debates about the census.
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From page 35... ...
1lThis problem is not faced in sampling for nonresponse follow-up since there the imputation is done on a household basis, whereas in integrated coverage measurement the characteristics are determined on an individual basis. However, in integrated coverage measurement, the people counted in the post-enumeration survey but missed in the census do have a household affiliation based on the post-enumeration survey interview, but this information is not used in providing household characteristics of the undercounted population.
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From page 36... ...
It is our understanding that recent advances to the initial procedure may have addressed the panel's concern. But because the Census Bureau's decision on whether to integrate this into the production operation had to be made on the basis of the performance of the initial procedure, the panel understands the decision to essentially repeat the method of the 1990 census, i.e., persons added through use of integrated coverage measurement will be assigned for their household, to the special quarters category.
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