The Aging Population in the Twenty-First Century Statistics for Health Policy (1988) / Chapter Skim
Currently Skimming:
2 Social, Economic, and Demographic Changes Among the Elderly
2 Social, Economic, and Demographic Changes Among the Elderly
Pages 52-64
The Chapter Skim interface presents what we've algorithmically identified as the most significant single chunk of text within every page in the chapter.
Select key terms on the right to highlight them within pages of the chapter.
From page 52... ...
Analysis of the demographic and socioeconomic trends of the elderly population will also help identify data needed to make informed policy decisions related to the health of the future elderly population. THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURE OF THE POPULATION The distribution of the population in the United States has shifted rapidly in both the number and proportion of the population age 65 and over.
|
From page 53... ...
(A small portion of the total elderly population is accounted for by net migration, which is not as accurately counted as births and deaths.) The elderly population in the next century depends on the births beginning in the 1930s and the estimated deaths in each year's birth cohort.
|
From page 54... ...
The Census Bureau population projections show that the sex ratio of the population age 65 and over will continue to fall in the next few decades, but more slowly than in the past, reaching 64 males per 100 females in the year 2000 (Siege] and Davidson, 1984~.
|
From page 55... ...
The Census Bureau attributes the difference to higher fertility of the black population and secondarily to higher mortality at ages below 65. The Census Bureau projects that the black population of the future will continue to be a younger population than the white, although improvements in mortality rates for elderly blacks are expected.
|
From page 56... ...
The number of elderly women living alone has doubled in the last 15 years, and projections by the Census Bureau show a substantial increase up to 1995 in the proportion of households with an elderly female living alone or with nonrelatives (Siegel and Davidson, 1984~. This trend has important implications for housing needs and the demand for institutional care.
|
From page 57... ...
In 1984 incomes were below the poverty level for 9 percent of elderly men, 15 percent of elderly women, and 36 percent of elderly black women. Social Security benefits are the largest single source of money income for the elderly (nearly 40 percent)
|
From page 58... ...
The age of eligibility for Social Security and other pension benefits will affect the age of retirement for many elderly, which in turn affects their level of income and economic dependency. The projected decline in labor force participation rates of older persons will lead to a continued rise in the ratio of older nonworkers to the working population and an associated increased dependency.
|
From page 59... ...
In addition to the unknown effects of advancing the age of retirement to 67 for payment of full benefits, fully effective in 2027, other social and legislative changes in the next 50 years may change the relationships between the working and the retired populations, significantly changing the elderly dependency ratio. Morbidity Patterns There is considerable conjecture and controversy regarding future morbidity patterns.
|
From page 60... ...
concludes that the number of very old people is increasing rapidly, the average period of diminished vigor will probably rise, chronic disease will probably occupy a larger proportion of people's life spans, and the needs for medical care in later life are likely to increase substantially. Models linking morbidity and mortality can be developed to predict how healthy or ill cohorts of the older population will be in the future (Manton, 19823.
|
From page 61... ...
In order to forecast the pensions of women, there is a need to monitor the pension benefits being accrued by the more recent cohorts of women. The increased labor force participation of women implies greater financial prospects from pension benefits on one hand, and lesser availability to provide a caregiver role for age parents on the other.
|
From page 62... ...
show a regional shift among the elderly from the Northeast and North Central regions to the South and West regions. In a detailed study of migration patterns of the elderly based on decennial census data, Longino observed that even while migration into the sunbelt states continued, outmigrants from Florida to northern states were characterized by high proportions of persons age 75 and over returning to their state of birth (Longing et al., 19843.
|
From page 63... ...
The future elderly are also expected to have relatively higher incomes and greater assets, along with better health. On the basis of the changes in the labor force experiences of women noted earlier, future generations of women can be expected to enter their retirement years with greater financial resources, from their own pension and Social Security entitlements, but with fewer familial resources to provide necessary support.
|
From page 64... ...
Despite the physiologic losses and psychosocial stresses often associated with advanced age, many elderly individuals have the vitality and resilience to function effectively or to recover and function independently, once again, following a disabling condition. Data are needed that measure the extent to which older individuals remain in good health and the changes that occur as they move from one state of health to another, whether this marks an improvement or progressive loss of function leading to disability, dependency and, ultimately, mortality.
|
Key Terms
This material may be derived from roughly machine-read images, and so is provided only to facilitate research.
More
information on Chapter Skim is available.