Technology in Services Policies for Growth, Trade, and Employment (1988) / Chapter Skim
Currently Skimming:
Growth of Services Employment in the United States
Growth of Services Employment in the United States
Pages 47-75
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From page 47... ...
services-producing sector, both past and prospective. Also, employment growth by occupation and by the educational requirements of these occupations is assessed.
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More disaggregated data for this specialized group indicate that business and medical services have led the rapid increases in this SIC group's employment growth. However, because of differing rates of measured productivity growth between the goods- and services-producing sectors, the output shift toward services is far less than the shift for employment.2 Occupational Employment Changes, Past and Prospective The BLS projects that the U.S.
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49 8 of 1 o ~ C)
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so m ~- 1 o 3 ~ o C or O ~ ox o Doe' Up.=, Oo ~ -.
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services workers. Employment declines have also occurred and are projected to continue in two broad occupational groups: (1)
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52 au a; o ._ us: Ct on So So Blot C)
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8 40.0 Sales workers 1 1.3 12.3 Administrative support, including clerical 17.8 16.7 Blue-collar-worker supervisors 1.6 1.5 Construction trades and extractive occupations 3.4 3.3 Mechanics and repairers 4.2 4.0 Precision production, and plant and systems workers 2.5 2.2 Level III TOTAL 34.0 32.7 Services workers 15.7 17.2 Agricultural workers 3.3 2.6 Machine setters and operators 4.5 3.6 Assemblers and other handworkers 2.4 1.9 Transportation and materials-moving workers 4.3 4.0 Helpers and laborers 3.8 3.4 NOTE: The data in Table 4 are the same as the 1986 and 2000 data in Table 3. However, the data in Table 4 are more disaggregated so comparison is not easy.
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From page 54... ...
Occupations such as administrative support, including clerical workers; farming, forestry, and fishing workers; and "operators, fabricators, and laborers" are examples. "Services workers," a category that is expected to grow at a faster rate than total employment and account for more of the total growth in employment than any other broad occupational group, is an important exception to the general trend, since the group?
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From page 55... ...
This is a slowly growing occupational group in which women currently hold more than 80 percent of the jobs. EXPLANATIONS FOR THE RAPID GROWTH OF EMPLOYMENT IN THE SERVICES INDUSTRIES4 So far, this chapter has only described the services industries' rapid employment growth patterns and characterized them by industry, occupation,
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Blacks Hispanics Women TOTAL, ALL OCCUPATIONS 1 9 1 0 7 44 Natural scientists and computer specialists 46 6 3 31 Health diagnosing and treating occupations 42 6 3 67 Technicians 38 8 4 47 Engineers, architects, and surveyors 32 4 3 7 Services workers 31 17 9 61 Marketing and sales workers 30 6 5 48 Managerial and management-related workers 29 5 4 43 Other professional workers 26 7 4 43 Construction trades and extractive workers 18 7 8 2 Teachers, librarians, and counselors 16 9 3 68 Mechanics and repairers 15 7 7 3 Administrative support, including clerical 11 11 6 80 Transportation and materials-moving workers 10 14 8 9 Helpers and laborers 6 17 11 16 Precision production, and plant and systems workers 4 9 9 23 Machine setters and operators —4 16 13 42 Assemblers and other handwork occupations —4 13 11 38 Agricultural forestry, and fishing workers —5 ~ it I b
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. ec Cans Marketing and sales workers Administrative support, including clerical Services workers Agricultural, forestry, and fishery 9.5 10.2 10.2 10.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 4.4 2.3 3.3 3.3 11.3 17.8 15.7 workers Blue-collar-worker supervisors Construction trades and extractive workers Mechanics and repairers Precision production, and plant and systems workers 2.8 Machine setters and operators 4.5 Assemblers and other handworkers Transportation and materials moving workers Helpers and laborers 3.2 1.6 3.6 4.2 2.4 4.3 3.8 4.4 2.8 3.6 3.8 12.3 16.6 17.2 2.6 1.5 3.4 4.0 2.1 3.5 1.9 4.0 3.4 4.3 2.8 3.7 4.0 12.3 16.7 17.2 2.6 1.5 3.3 4.0 2.2 3.6 1.9 4.0 3.4 4.3 2.8 3.5 4.0 12.2 16.6 17.1 2.5 1.5 3.4 4.0 2.2 3.6 2.0 4.0 3.4 and period.
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From page 58... ...
growth explains about 40 percent of the producerservices industries' output growth. Similarly, during the 1972-1985 period, GNP growth explains about 50 percent of the communications industry's output growth, about 65 percent of the medical services industries' growth, and about 90 percent of the eating and drinking industry's output growth.
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"Business practices" means the way in which goods and services are assembled, as measured by the coefficients in an input-output table. The difference between the estimated output growth in this calculation and the actual growth measures the effect of changing final demand composition on producer-services industries' output growth.
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The Unbundling Hypothesis Which changes in business practices were most responsible for causing output and employment in the producer-services industries to grow at aboveaverage rates? Some argue that the employment growth of producer-services industries reflects simply the shifting of existing legal, accounting and auditing, janitorial, or clerical activities from one industry to another.
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Increased contracting out implies that manufacturing industries are purchasing more from the producer-services industries. The increased purchases could be from unbundling, from needing new or additional producer services, or from both.
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Employment trends represent the net impact of changes in GNP, final demand composition, business practices, and staffing patterns. (Staffing patterns are the shares of an industry's employment accounted for by particular occupations.)
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63 of ._ sit Cal ._ ._ 3 U: o Ct Cal C)
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Unbundling is one of several explanations given for the slow recovery. One explanation for the employment growth of clerical occupations over the 1983-1986 period is the total employment growth in manufacturing industries during this era.
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Industrial Composition, 1983-1986 Another potential source of employment growth among clerical occupations could be the changing mix of manufacturing industries. Here, industry mix means the number of workers employed in a particular industry as a percentage of total manufacturing employment.
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On this basis most manufacturing industries employed proportionately fewer clerical workers in 1986 than in 1983. However, for clerical occupations, the growth in total manufacturing employment more than offset changes in staffing patterns within the detailed industries resulting in the observed net increase of 49,000 clerical workers over the 1983- 1986 period.
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The number of clerical workers would have increased by 79,000, based on total manufacturing employment growth alone. The number would have increased 17,000, based on changing industry mix alone.
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The employment of services workers within manufacturing declined 33,000 because of changes in staffing patterns alone. If these workers were reabsorbed in producer services, this estimate would account for 2.1 percent of the total employment growth.
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From page 69... ...
Computer and data processing technologies allow services units to spread the high investment and development costs of their systems over many users, thus providing economies of scale. Similarly, management and business consulting services, engineering and architectural services, and other producer services have spread the costs of acquiring sophisticated technical knowledge about demographics, economics, marketing, engineering, and other fields over many users.
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Legal, engineering, or management consulting is highly portable by telecommunications and air travel. The benefit of a lawyer's or an engineer's work is as durable as the output of most manufacturing industries.
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However, if the accountants' or computer programmers' services were contracted for by the same manufacturing firm, they would be classified as services. The same holds for other activities that can be performed within a firm or contracted out, such as legal services, word processing, or building maintenance, to mention only a few.
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There is no reason why medical, legal, entertainment, education, banking, or many other services should require prior goods production to be effective. Such services activities require only that there be income for individuals to buy the services.
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Based on the available evidence, the unbundling of services activities from manufacturing operations accounted for only a small portion of the total producer-services industries' above-average growth. However, unbundling in individual fibs could have been offset by employment growth for these same activities in other firms.
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. This encompasses advertising, computer and data processing services, personnel supply services, management and business consulting services, protective and detective services, services to dwellings and other buildings, legal services, accounting and auditing services, and engineering and architectural services.
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1987. Projections 2000: A look at occupational employment trends to the year 2000.
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