Computer Chips and Paper Clips Technology and Women's Employment, Volume I (1986) / Chapter Skim
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3. Effects of Technological Change: Employment Levels and Occupational Shifts
3. Effects of Technological Change: Employment Levels and Occupational Shifts
Pages 62-126
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From page 62... ...
With the most rapid diffusion, they projected total employment to grow from 89.2 million person-years in 1978 to 124.1 million in 1990 and to 156.6 million in 2000; clerical employment, however, was projected to grow from 15.9 million in 1978 to only 16.7 million in 1990 and 17.9 million in 2000. Hence, under their assumptions, clerical workers would decline from 17.8 percent of the labor force in 1978 to 13.5 percent in 1990 and to 11.4 percent in 2000.
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From page 63... ...
Office automation may have contributed to this relative reduction in clerical workers. During this same period, however, total employment in the industry expanded substantially from 3.9 million to 5.3 million, an increase of 35.9 percent, about 1.5 times the rate of employment increase in all nonagricultural industries (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1985b)
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From page 64... ...
The productivity gains that are possible can be applied in several ways: to develop new products and services, to improve quality, or to cut costs. Only the third way is likely to have substantially negative effects on employment levels, and those will occur only if the lower costs (and prices)
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From page 65... ...
If economic performance deteriorates and economic pressures on employers intensify, the productivity gains made possible by the new technologies are likely to be applied to cost cutting, and substantial technological displacement might occur, along with the cyclical unemployment that would result from poor overall economic performance. Whatever the impact of technological change and economic growth on the levels of employment, their impact on occupational shifts is less ambiguous.
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From page 66... ...
To assess changes in employment opportunities or outcomes with any degree of confidence in the generalizability of the results requires data from a representative sample of jobs in a local or national labor market, with jobs grouped into occupational categories on the basis of some standard occupational classification scheme. But none of the existing occupational classification schemes e.g., those of the Bureau of the Census, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
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From page 67... ...
They developed a reasonably consistent set of occupational categories for clerical workers across the 19501980 censuses. To look at more recent trends, they use CPS data for the 19721982 period, and they sometimes report 1983-1984 CPS data separately because they are not compatible with earlier data.
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From page 68... ...
Employment projections for specific subfields of clerical work and likely occupational shifts and changes in skill requirements are also discussed. The conclusion attempts to link information about supply and demand to assess the impact of technological change and other factors on employment levels in clerical jobs, currently the dominant source of jobs for women.
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From page 69... ...
The rates have also differed by racial and ethnic group. Labor force participation rates have histoncally been highest for women aged 20-24; for unmamed or divorced women; for well-educated women; and for women without children, especially young children, at home (Bureau of the Census, 1985:Tables 671, 673, 675~.
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From page 70... ...
Although it is difficult to demonstrate that women entered or stayed in the labor force because of the availability of jobs, it is significant that very large numbers of the same kinds of workers who had traditionally held certain jobs arrived in the labor market just at the time of highest demand for those jobs. PROJECTIONS OF LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATES Given the number of influences that might be affecting women's labor force participation rates, it is very difficult to make assumptions about trends in the rates.
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From page 71... ...
TABLE 3-2 Actual and Projected Labor Force Participation Rates of Men Aged 16 and Older by Race, 1970-1995 Year All Men Whites Blacksa 1970 79.7 80.0 76.5 1975 77.9 78.7 71.0 1980 77.4 78.2 70.6 1984 76.4 77.1 70.8 1990b 75.8 ma.
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From page 72... ...
For most of the postwar period, women's labor force participation rates peaked at ages 20-24, dropped at ages 25-34, and rose again at ages 35-54. The drop in rates at ages 25-34 was attributed to withdrawal from the labor force for childbearing.
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From page 73... ...
By contrast, very little change is projected in the participation rates for older women workers: in 1984, 41.7 percent of women aged 55-64 were in the labor force, along with 7.5 percent of those over 65. OTHER FEATURES OF WOMEN S LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION The increased similarity of the labor force participation of women and men over the life cycle corresponds to an increase in female attachment to the labor force.
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From page 75... ...
In 1983 the rate for men had not changed much and stood at about 64 percent (Blau and Ferber, 1986:75~. EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF THE LABOR FORCE Education is an important factor influencing women's labor force participation and their earnings.
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From page 76... ...
TABLE 3-6 Schooling Distnbutions of Selected Birth Cohorts Years of Schooling Less Less Less More Birth Than Than Than Than College Cohort 0 5 9 8 12 12 12 16 Degree Men 1866-1870 7.5 21.1 77.8 35.5 85.8 9.0 5.2 1.6 1.9 1886-1890 5.7 17.4 66.3 28.4 79.3 12.0 8.8 2.3 3.3 1906-1910 1.4 6.6 41.6 20.3 61.5 23.1 15.4 4.6 6.3 1926-1930 0.7 2.8 17.4 8.2 38.6 42.3 19.1 5.7 7.7 1946-1950 0.4 1.5 6.6 2.3 19.1 45.6 35.3 12.9 15.9 Women 1866-1870 8.5 26.0 82.1 33.6 88.1 5.7 6.2 2.2 3.3 1886-1890 6.4 21.6 71.9 28.2 82.1 8.6 9.0 2.8 4.6 1906-1910 1.8 8.8 47.5 22.3 67.0 18.0 15.0 4.7 7.8 1926-1930 1.0 3.9 22.8 10.5 43.5 31.2 25.3 8.7 14.2 1946-1950 0.5 1.2 7.8 3.0 19.4 37.6 43.1 17.6 20.4 SOURCE: Smith and Ward (1984:Table 18)
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From page 77... ...
Despite the equality in years of schooling for men and women in the labor market, there are substantial differences in courses of study. In recent years there has been some convergence.
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From page 78... ...
78 COMPUTER CHIPS AND PAPER CLIPS TABLE 3-8 Educational Attainment of the Labor Force by Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin, 1983a Years of School Completed Fewer than 4 years of high school ( % ) Whites Blacks Hispanics Males Females Males Females Males Females 4 years of high school only ( %)
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From page 79... ...
Most of the baby boom has entered the labor force, and the new replacement cohorts are smaller. Second, labor force participation rates for men are expected to continue their slow decline.
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From page 80... ...
If economic growth slows or if technological change causes significant displacement of women workers from their jobs, however, serious unemployment for women may occur. Because of the variety of interrelated factors influencing women's labor force participation, women are unlikely to withdraw from the labor force simply because their jobs
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From page 81... ...
Or one must hope that the change will occur slowly enough that it can be relatively easily accommodated. A well-educated work force is clearly better able to respond to occupational shifts in the demand for labor.
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From page 82... ...
A second potential impact of the application of new technologies is that they can facilitate the reallocation of functions among occupations, resulting in eithera reduction or en increase in the demand for a particular type of worker. For example, the greater ease of data entry and retrieval using the new computer technologies may encourage employers to shift some of these tasks from clerical workers to other workers or even to consumers (as in banking)
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From page 83... ...
When dictation equipment is used, the material is entered by the clerical workers directly into the typewriter or word processor, and the shorthand skills of the stenographer are no longer needed. The decline in the number of stenographers is not a reflection of a decline in the amount of dictation being done indeed, the- amount of dictation appears to be increasing but the particular skills of stenographers are no longer needed to accomplish this task.
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From page 84... ...
Displaced workers and new entrants to the labor market may or may not be considered structurally unemployed, depending on how quickly and easily they can find new employment. Because the adoption of new technologies almost invariably results in shifts in demands for different types of workers, some displacement of workers is likely to occur.
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From page 85... ...
, male unemployment in blue-collar jobs contributed disproportionately to the increased unemployment. Of special interest is that in the most recent trough the share of unemployment attributable to clerical occupations grew.
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From page 86... ...
Hunt (1985a) .2 The tremendous historical growth in clerical employment is illustrated in Figure 3-1, which shows that the proportion of clerical workers to total employment has doubled in the last 40 years.
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From page 87... ...
In past recessions the proportion of clerical employment tended to increase since employers usually cut back less on clerical workers than on other categories of employees. Significantly, this effect did not hold in the 1981-1982 recession.
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From page 88... ...
OCCUPATIONAL SHIFTS WITHIN CLERICAL WORK Within the clerical category there has been considerable variation over the past 30 years in how specific occupations have fared. Table 3- 10 ranks clerical occupations by the rate of change in employment levels from 1950 to 1980.
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From page 89... ...
These declines appear to be related to the availability and use of new technologies. DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS IN CLERICAL EMPLOYMENT The differential rates of change among the different clerical occupations have affected women and men and minority and majority women somewhat differently because of their different employment patterns in those occupations.
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From page 90... ...
9o to of oN o to ~4 As .> Id ce of Do ~o to c~ o c)
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From page 92... ...
Unlike the nation, this region experienced actual declines, not only lack of growth. Surprisingly, clerical employment fell even more rapidly than total employment between 1980 and 1983 in the four states (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio)
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From page 93... ...
93 e O .= ~ ~ ~ Z A: C C ~ 'SIDE ~ =O ~ 9C O C t: ~ ~ so V)
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From page 94... ...
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From page 95... ...
9s Cot — O ON ~ 00 00 .
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From page 96... ...
Slightly fewer than 3 million clerical jobs are located in each of the next two largest employers of clerical workers retail trade and finance. Although clerical workers are dispersed broadly throughout the economy, these three industries combined—services, retail trade, and finance account for more than 11 million clerical jobs, almost 60 percent of total clerical employment.
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From page 97... ...
The top 10 employers of clerical workers account for about two-thirds of all clerical employment, while the top 20 industries account for more than 80 percent. Since industry employment is crucial to assessing occupational employment trends, the trends over the last 27 years in total industry employment are presented in Figure 3-3, which aggregates the employment in the top 10 clericalemploying industries and shows it relative to employment in the 105 industries that constitute the total economy in this analysis.
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From page 98... ...
(percent) Employment Employment State and local government and educational services 13,068 2,512 19.2 13.4 13.4 Miscellaneous retail trade 10,476 2,496 23.8 13.3 26.8 Wholesale trade 5,294 1,531 28.9 8.2 34.9 Banking 1,650 1,180 71.5 6.3 41.2 Federal government 2,739 1,138 41.5 6.1 47.3 Insurance 1,700 911 53.6 4.9 52.2 Miscellaneous business services 3,139 896 28.5 4.8 57.0 Hospitals 4,166 666 16.0 3.6 60.5 Social services, museums, and membership organizations 2,755 587 21.3 3.1 63.7 Credit agencies, security and commodity brokers 1,015 577 56.9 3.1 66.8 Legal and miscellaneous services 1,628 560 34.4 3.0 69.7 Telephone and other communication 1,174 529 45.1 2.8 72.6 Physician and dental offices 1,309 394 30.1 2.1 74.7 Construction 3,913 324 8.3 1.7 76.4 Eating and drinking places 4,781 224 4.7 1.2 77.6 Electric services and gas distribution 792 207 26.2 1.1 78.7 Trucking and warehousing 1,206 199 16.5 1.1 79.8 Miscellaneous printing and publishing 846 192 22.8 1.0 80.8 Real estate 986 188 19.1 1.0 81.8 Miscellaneous personal services 1,219 186 15.3 1.0 82.8 SOURCE: Hunt and Hunt (1985a:Table 4.5)
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From page 99... ...
Each of these industries has a staffing ratio for clerical workers in excess of 50 percent, the highest of all industries (see Table 3-1 3~. Hospitals were another important source of clerical employment growth (although the staffing ratio is low, it is a large sector)
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From page 100... ...
Changes in the latter two factors cause an occupation to increase or decrease in relative importance in the occupational structure. Changing staffing ratios, which are probably the most visible manifestation of the specific effects of technological change on occupational employment, have also affected clerical employment growth.
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From page 101... ...
in this industry for this period; the more intensive use of clerical workers in the retail trade sector over the decade increased clerical jobs by 252,000 (12.0 percent) ; and the retail sector's above-average growth increased clerical employment by 45,000 (2.1 percent)
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From page 102... ...
102 Go C~ Dig lo, c o C)
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From page 103... ...
Interestingly, changes in staffing ratios contributed to increases in clerical employment in those industries that are relatively small employers of clerical workers: agriculture, mining, construction, and durable and nondurable manufacturing. These changes may point to sources of clerical job growth.
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From page 104... ...
104 at or Do cr.
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From page 105... ...
More recent projections for 1995, with 1984 as the base year, were released by BLS late in 1985; the panel's necessarily brief analysis of the newer projections appears below. Hunt and Hunt's analysis of the 1983 BLS projections shows expected employment increases in eight broad occupational categories, including decomposition of their sources of growth.5 In the past the industries that employed the most clerical workers have been faster growing than the average.
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From page 106... ...
The decomposition does reveal a significant change, however: the impact of staffing ratios on clerical employment is expected to be negative, the only reversal projected by BLS from the existing trends in the historical data. In its later projections for 1995 (released in November 1985)
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From page 107... ...
In their discussion of the new projections, Silvestri and Lukasiewicz point out that growth in clerical employment was about average between 1973 and 1984 and that, despite slower projected growth, clerical employment would still remain the largest category of employment and would add 1.8 million jobs. They suggest that the main reason for the reduced projection is revision in the bureau's estimate of the impact of office automation, not only its direct impact on the tasks performed by clerical workers but also on a shift in tasks from clerical workers to professional, technical, and managerial workers (which are expected to be especially fast-growing occupational categories)
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From page 108... ...
As Table 3-17 shows, the result of this adjustment is that, overall, BLS has not altered its estimate of clerical employment growth. As in 1983, clerical employment growth is expected to be slightly less than average, so that the proportion of clerical employment to total employment falls slightly (indicating a small negative staffing ratio, shown on the last row in the table)
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From page 109... ...
The panel thinks not. Comparison between the largest actual decline in a staffing ratio, that for operatives, and the Leontief and Duchin projection for clerical workers can illuminate the issue.
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From page 110... ...
Although the growth in clerical employment in the panel's estimates is much larger than that projected by Leontief and Duchin, it is also substantially smaller than that projected by BLS because the change in the clerical staffing ratio is substantial and negative. In the panel's judgment, these estimates reflect the "most plausible 6Similar shifts are occurring in the classification of clerical workers, with uncertain effects on observable future employment.
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From page 111... ...
It is interesting to note that in its 1985 projections for 1995, reflecting its latest thinking, BLS approaches the panel's previous most plausible worst case forecast; BLS's revised 1985 projections for clerical employment fall between the 1983 BLS and the 1983 panel projections. As Table 3-17 shows, the 1985 BLS projection is 22.7 million clerical jobs in 1995 compared with the panel's projection of 20.7 million.
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From page 118... ...
In the 1983 BLS estimates, the projected growth rates in these two large clerical occupations, and for clerical workers generally, are approximately equal to those projected for total employment. The projected growth for secretaries is entirely consistent with the historical data (except for the apparent decline of secretaries in 1982, which may have been caused by the recession)
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From page 119... ...
Many of these occupations are held disproportionately by minority women—postal service clerks, file clerks, data-entry operators, and telephone operators. These anticipated shifts among clerical suboccupations make it clear that the slowdown in projected growth for clerical workers will not affect all such workers equally.
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From page 120... ...
120 Cal o · _ .: PA U
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From page 121... ...
combined with data on the proportion of females in each occupation from the 1980 census yield the employment increases for women shown in Table 3-20. As the table shows, several of the slower-growing, but large, female clerical occupations provide the largest job growth: secretanes, general office clerks, and bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks.
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From page 122... ...
Given the overall slow growth predicted in clerical occupations generally, the rapid increase predicted in temporary employment constitutes a shift in clerical employment from permanent to temporary work. Because it is of interest to compare growth in clerical jobs with opportunities elsewhere in the economy, Table 3-21 presents the 20 occupations that are expected to experience the largest growth of jobs by 1995 throughout the entire labor market.
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From page 123... ...
. The slowest-growing of these occupations are the clerical occupations.
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From page 124... ...
Whether white-collar or blue-collar, women remained jobless longer than men; white-collar workers had less joblessness than blue-collar workers, and more women worked in white-collar than in blue-collar jobs. The industries that are especially large employers of clerical workers (for example, government and finance)
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From page 125... ...
Some increased structural unemployment may result. Between 1958 and 1968, clerical employment grew considerably more rapidly than total employment: clerical workers increased their share of total employment from 14.5 to 17.5 percent.
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From page 126... ...
This differential change is likely to pose a particular hardship for minority women, who hold relatively more of the declining jobs. For all women, the slower growth and likely shifts point to the need for sound basic education in core competencies, such as reasoning ability, problem solving, and communication, to prepare workers for the jobs likely to be created.
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