(NAS Colloquium) Plants and Population Is There Time? (1999) / Chapter Skim
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World food and agriculture: Outlook for the medium and longer term
World food and agriculture: Outlook for the medium and longer term
Pages 5908-5914
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From page 5908... ...
" held December 5-6, 1998, at the Arnold and Mabel Beckman Center in Irvine, CA. World food and agriculture: Outlook for the medium and longer term NIKOS ALEXANDRATOS Global Perspective Studies Unit, Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome 00100, Italy ABSTRACT The world has been making progress in improving food security, as measured by the per person availability of food for direct human consumption.
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From page 5909... ...
We do not have a counterfactual scenario to answer the question of how the different variables of the world food system (in particular the per person food availability of the poor countries and those that became heavy importers) would have actually fared if Western Europe had not followed a policy of heavy support and protection of its agriculture.
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From page 5910... ...
As noted, world average indicators have limited value for welfare analysis, and the variables must be observed at a more disaggregated level for a correct interpretation. Progress in food security need not manifest itself in rising world averages (i.e., with aggregate production or consumption rising faster than world population)
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From page 5911... ...
This is because the overall demographic and economic outlook implies that the share of the poor, or rather those with lower-than-average food consumption levels, in the world population is set to continue rising. The food insecurity and undernutrition problems will persist, at somewhat attenuated levels, in the medium term future and perhaps well beyond, in many countries starting with very unfavorable initial conditions (mainly in sub-Saharan Africa and, to a smaller extent, in South Asia and selected countries in other regions)
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From page 5912... ...
and the prevailing farming systems and more general demographic and socioeconomic conditions favor land expansion. It is estimated that the developing countries outside China have some 2.5 billion ha of land of varying qualities, which has potential for growing rainfed crops at yields above an "acceptable" minimum level.
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From page 5913... ...
Demand for food is decelerating because a significant part of world population with still very inadequate consumption levels lacks purchasing power and has no way of expressing the need to increase consumption in the form of solvable demand in the marketplace. This is why the problems of food insecurity afflicting many countries and population groups remain as severe as ever, regardless that price trends in world markets indicate once again an overabundance of food relative to effective demand at the global level.
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From page 5914... ...
Food, Agriculture and Food Security: Developments Since the World Food Conference and Prospects, Technical Background Document No. 1 for the World Food Summit (Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome)
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