(NAS Colloquium) Plants and Population Is There Time? (1999) / Chapter Skim
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The growth of demand will limit output growth for food over the next quarter century
The growth of demand will limit output growth for food over the next quarter century
Pages 5915-5920
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From page 5915... ...
In the case of sub-Saharan Africa, the failure to achieve a significant increase in per capita food supplies has been due, not primarily to limitations of natural resources, but to wholly inappropriate national policies that exploited agriculture in the name of promoting economic development as well as by ethnic and civil strife in several countries. A World Bank study of the effects of governmental intervention found for 1960-1984 that for three countries in subSaharan Africa the returns received by farmers were reduced by 51.6% (1~.
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From page 5916... ...
It is argued that world grain production and world food production as well have grown quite slowly during the l990s and that world per capita grain production has declined. World grain production has not kept pace with world population growth since 1984.
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From page 5917... ...
Real incomes affect food demand through the income elasticity of demand a 1% increase in real per capita income increases per capita demand by much less than 1% in the case of grain perhaps by about 0.100.25%., As real incomes increase around the world, the income elasticity of demand declines. Food prices at the farm level have a minor effect on per capita food consumption because the farm price represents only a part of the cost to urban consumers, and the price elasticity of demand has become quite low and will be lower in the future than it now is.
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From page 5918... ...
According to these studies, the world consumption of grain is and will be moved almost entirely by population growth. At the time the studies were being prepared, the projection of the annual rate of world population growth for 1990-2010 was 1.5 To.
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From page 5919... ...
I think it is unlikely that over the next two decades there will be any significant increase in the cropland area, but there could be if agricultural prices increased significantly. But higher real prices for farm products are highly unlikely, so it is unlikely that we will see the development of much new cropland.
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From page 5920... ...
(1994) Population and Food in the Early Twenty-First Century: Meeting Future Food Demand of an Increasing Population (International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC)
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