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(NAS Colloquium) Plants and Population Is There Time? (1999) / Chapter Skim
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Global and local implications of biotechnology and climate change for future food supplies
Pages 5921-5928

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From page 5921...
... Each submodel consists of equations depicting the supply for each commodity as a function of price and nonprice terms. The demand for each commodity is also Abbreviations: IFPRI, International Food Policy Research Institute; IMPACT, International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities; R&D, research and development; ITI, industrial technology infrastructure; NARs, National Agricultural Research systems; IARCs, International Agricultural Research Centers.
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From page 5922...
... A recently completed study, Rice Research in Asia: Progress and Priorities (2) ,ll provided the basis for subcomponent projections for four broad rice-producing zones (South Asia, Southeast Asia, East Asia, and the rest of the world)
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From page 5923...
... , rice nonprice yield projections were created for each region for the public NARs and IARC components. Note that one can distinguish between biotechnology and conventional breeding components, thus enabling the biotechnology slowdown policy scenarios noted below.
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From page 5924...
... The following alternative policy scenarios are considered: A Demographic gift B
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From page 5925...
... Base case all cereals Growth rates (%) 1993-2020 Countries/regions United States Western Europe Japan Australia Other developed Eastern Europe Former USSR Latin America Nigeria Northern Africa Central-West Africa Southern Africa Eastern Africa Sub-Saharan Africa West Asia-North Africa India Pakistan Bangladesh Other South Asia Indonesia Thailand Malaysia Philippines Vietnam Myanmar Other Southeast Asia China Other East Asia South Asia South Asia (excluding India)
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From page 5926...
... The policy scenarios show that reduced research support, delayed industrialization, delayed biotechnology, and climate change will delay progress in reducing malnutrition. The "global" effects are small, but local effects for some countries, e.g., Bangladesh and Nigeria, are significant.
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From page 5927...
... Appendix: The IFPRI-IMPACT Model Base Case IMPACT, developed at the IFPRI, is a partial equilibrium model covering 17 commodities and 35 countries/regions. It computes global equilibriums in real prices and is synthetic, in that it uses price elasticities and nonprice parameters from other studies.
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From page 5928...
... (1999) "Agricultural Research and Productivity Growth in India," Research Report 109 (International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC)
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Key Terms

  • policy scenarios
  • local effects
  • global effects
  • latin america
  • delayed industrialization

  • conventional breeding
  • rice research
  • delayed biotechnology
  • labor force
  • international food

  • food policy
  • productivity gains
  • south asia
  • local food
  • global food

  • biotechnology delay
  • southeast asia
  • extension programs
  • factor productivity
  • food supply

  • total factor
  • extension contribution
  • nonprice supply
  • biotechnology research
  • yield growth

  • nonprice terms
  • research contribution
  • nonprice trends
  • yield projections
  • nonprice yield


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