(NAS Colloquium) Plants and Population Is There Time? (1999) / Chapter Skim
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The transition to agricultural sustainability
The transition to agricultural sustainability
Pages 5960-5967
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From page 5960... ...
The challenge of the 21st century will be to make the transition to sustainable growth in both presently developed and low income countries. It will involve a transition to a stable global population, it may involve a transition to a stable level of material consumption, and it will involve a transition to a largely urban society.
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From page 5961... ...
The policy reform variant would require major institutional changes, including substantial transfer of resources from rich to poor countries, and major technological changes, including a more rapid shift toward dematerialization and decarbonization than implied in the Reference Scenario. It would also require a more active public role in environmental manage possible patterns of change only.
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From page 5962... ...
In spite of rapid population growth, global average per capita food availability rose from <2,400 to >2,700 calories. Projections of future population and income growth are notoriously uncertain.
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From page 5963... ...
These studies indicate, somewhat surprisingly, that, while there has been some decline in soil organic matter and nitrogen, there has been little or no loss of topsoil or in productive capacity over the more than half-century covered by his study (29-31~. A careful review of the international literature by Crosson suggests that yield losses at the global level might be roughly double the rates estimated for the U.S.
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From page 5964... ...
The major pests of crops and animals include insects, pathogens, and weeds. Strategies include cultural control, biological control, pest resistant crop varieties, and chemical control (42-44~.
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From page 5965... ...
It is possible that actions taken to mitigate global climate change, such as land-intensive approaches to carbon sequestering, substitution of fuels based on agricultural raw materials for petroleum based fuels, and efforts to control carbon, nitrous oxide, and methane emissions, could have a larger negative effect of crop and animal production than the direct impacts of climate change. I have not, in this paper, discussed the potential impacts of health constraints on agricultural production.
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From page 5966... ...
None of the models gives adequate attention to the synergistic interactions among climate change, soil loss and degradation, ground and surface water storage, and the incidence of pests and pathogens. These interactive effects could add up to a significantly larger burden on sustainable growth in production than the relatively small effects of each constraint considered separately.
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From page 5967... ...
(1998) Comprehensive Assessment of the Freshwater Resources of the World (Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm)
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