Small-Area Income and Poverty Estimates Priorities for 2000 and Beyond (2000) / Chapter Skim
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1 Introduction
1 Introduction
Pages 11-17
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From page 11... ...
An important application of intercensal small-area estimates of poverty is for the allocation of over $7 billion of funds annually for programs for educationally disadvantaged children under Title I of the Elementary and Secondary Education Act. Reauthorization of that act in 1994 provided that updated estimates of poor school-age children for counties and school districts, produced every 2 years by the Census Bureau, should be used for Title I allocations in place of estimates from the most recent census, unless the Secretaries of Commerce and Education found that they were "inappropriate or unreliable" on the basis of a review by a panel of the Committee on National Statistics at the National Research Council.
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From page 12... ...
The panel subsequently combined the three interim reports into a single technical volume (National Research Council, 2000c) , which documents the current methods for producing SAIPE estimates of poor school-age children for states, counties, and school districts, and the evaluations of them that have been conducted to date.
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From page 13... ...
Such estimates had been regularly produced by the Census Bureau every 2 years from 1971 to 1987, using changes in income reported on tax returns and BEA personal income estimates to update census income estimates (see National Research Council, 1980, for a review of the methodology)
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From page 14... ...
The legislation was passed by the House of Representatives in November 1993, but the Senate did not act on it. One year later, in September 1994, Congress passed the "Improving America's Schools Act," which called for the use of updated Census Bureau estimates of poor school-age children for allocation of Title I funds, if they were found sufficiently reliable by a panel of the National Research Council.
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From page 15... ...
There is at present no single data source either a sample survey, such as the March CPS, or an administrative records system that can be used to produce reliable direct estimates between decennial censuses.4 Instead, multiple sources must be combined in statistical models to produce reliable indirect estimates. Model-dependent indirect estimators use data from other areas and, possibly, other time periods that are obtained from several sources to "borrow strength" and improve the precision of estimates for small areas.5 The basic methodology was first developed several decades ago, and the Census Bureau has used this strategy for several types of estimates.
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From page 16... ...
Chapter 3 provides a technical discussion of the SAIPE estimation models, focusing on the models for poor school-age children for states, counties, and school districts. It summarizes earlier evaluations of the models and lists priorities for model research and development, previously identified by the panel, that the Census Bureau should pursue in the short to medium term (see also National Research Council, 2000c)
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From page 17... ...
in the following areas: practices that are important to follow in the production, evaluation, and documentation of estimates; assessments that users should conduct of estimates; and the need for policy makers to consider carefully the use of estimates for fund allocation and other program purposes in light of their uncertainty. The appendix presents some results of simulating fund allocations with varying levels of uncertainty of estimates and different rules for allocating funds.
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