Description

This book reviews the uses and abuses of microsimulation models--large, complex models that produce estimates of the effects on program costs and who would gain and who would lose from proposed changes in government policies ranging from health care to welfare to taxes.
Volume 1 is designed to guide future investment in modeling and analysis capability on the part of government agencies that produce policy estimates. It will inform congressional and executive decision makers about the strengths and weaknesses of models and estimates and will interest social scientists in the potential of microsimulation techniques for basic and applied research as well as policy uses.
The book concludes that a "second revolution" is needed to improve the quality of microsimulation and other policy analysis models and the estimates they produce, with a special emphasis on systematic validation of models and communication of validation results to decision makers.

Reviews

"The report will almost certainly be widely cited and consulted by model builders. It should be widely cited, because it covers a broad range of model-building and model-using issues, and widely consulted, because it is so clearly written." --Journal of the American Statistical Association

Authoring Organizations

• Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education (CBASSE)
• Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education (DBASSE)
• More Titles from CBASSE
• More Titles from DBASSE

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