Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions -- The Uses of Microsimulation Modeling Volume I, Review and Recommendations (1991) / Chapter Skim
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11 The Microsimulation Modeling Community
11 The Microsimulation Modeling Community
Pages 273-289
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From page 273... ...
By "structure of the microsimulation modeling community," we mean the relationships among all of the organizational entities that are involved in developing microsimulation models and databases, applying them for policy analysis purposes, and using the resulting estimates to inform policy making. Hence, we are concerned about the relationships among many members of the community: federal policy analysis agencies that support model development and applications, and prepare estimates for decision makers; federal statistical agencies that produce needed input data; research and modeling contractors that conduct studies and analyses for policy analysis agencies; and the staffs of executive and legislative branch decision makers who receive the outputs from the models and interpret and use~r do not use—them in making policy.
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From page 274... ...
Many policies interact, and many policy analysis agencies have overlapping responsibilities and interests. One example is the number of executive and legislative agencies that are involved in tax policy analysis using microsimulation models: Office of Tax Analysis, Joint Committee on Taxation, CBO, ASPE, and others.
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From page 275... ...
Indeed, for health care policy, it appears to us that communication and turf problems have hampered effective coordination of modeling, database construction, and behavioral research needed to support policy analysis. In general, the existence of multiple models and analyses in policy areas such as taxation and income support serves the positive function of providing a means of cross-checking to identify errors in computer codes and to highlight differences in key assumptions underlying model estimates produced by different agencies.
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From page 276... ...
Statistical and Policy Analysis Agencies The fragmentation of authority and the overlapping responsibilities and interests among executive and legislative branch policy analysis agencies also characterize federal statistical agencies. Again, the area of health care is a prime example: not only the National Center for Health Statistics and the Census Bureau, but also the Agency for Health Care Policy and Research, the Health Care Financing Administration, and ASPE, have played a role in sponsoring important data collections that are needed for health care policy analysis.
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From page 277... ...
The Census Bureau and He policy analysis agencies should work together to evaluate alternatives for short-term improvements to the data used for microsimulation modeling of income support and related social welfare programs.
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From page 278... ...
We have every reason to believe that microsimulation modeling contractors have ably fulfilled the terms of their contracts and, indeed, have often providW outstanding service to their agency clients. We also recognize that there are real costs to the agencies to try to increase the contractor pool, given that heightened competition may disrupt agency-contractor relationships that are beneficial for obtaining the most experienced and knowledgeable assistance in carrying out the policy analysis function.
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From page 279... ...
Our recommendation that agencies let separate contracts for model validation and our suggestion that this approach be considered for documenting and archiving models (see Chapters 9 and 103 also offer important benefits from the perspective of model development and use. Such contracts can be expected to provide direct incentives for other firms and academic researchers to become involved with microsimulation modeling and, at least, to broaden the range of perspectives that address issues of model quality and utility.
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From page 280... ...
We recommend that the policy analysis agencies set a goal of increasing the in-house use of microsunulation models by agency analysts, who have the ultimate responsibilib of interpreting model results for policy makers. POLICY ANALYSIS AGENCIES AND DECISION MAKERS' STAFFS To this point we have considered relationships among organizational entities that are involved in the production of policy estimates.
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From page 281... ...
THE ROLE OF RESEARCH Contributions of Research to Policy Analysis Another factor in the limited extent of the community involved in the use of microsimulation modeling for policy purposes has been the disassociation of much of academia from such analysis. Although the concepts of microsimulation originated in academia, relatively few academic researchers have been actively involved in the development and use of microsimulation models for policy applications over the past decade.
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From page 282... ...
In summary, we recommend that policy analysis agencies sponsor · studies of the relationship between behavioral research and microsirnulation modeling, including studies of ways in which research and modeling can complement one another, as well as ways in which the two are alternative modes of deriving answers to policy questions; studies to determine when behavioral response effects are most likely to be important in different policy simulations and to attempt to narrow the range of statistical estimates of those behavioral parameters that may be of major importance to critical policy changes; also, studies on second-round effects of policy changes that may be important to understand; · studies to develop methods for systematically assessing the impact on microsimulation model estimates of the degree of uncertainty in the behavioral parameters that are used~oth the uncertainty arising from the variance of specific parameters and that arising from the range of estimates from different behavioral studies; and · studies to develop improved methods for validating microsimulation model output. We also believe that agencies may benefit from relatively low-cost activities designed to encourage and reward researchers' interest generally in policy analysis concerns that could benefit from a microanalytic perspective.
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From page 283... ...
Recomme~ion 114. We recommend that policy analysis agencies encourage and support the involvement of social science researchers in work that is relevant to microsimulation modeling, and other microlevel policy analysis, through sponsoring regular research conferences.
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From page 284... ...
Stated another way, microsimulation models are vehicles for integrating the results of different strands of socioeconomic research within a framework that forces consistency and alerts a researcher to important gaps in data and knowledge about human behavior. Hence, Orcutt saw microsimulation modeling playing a prominent role in the development of knowledge about socioeconomic behavior.
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From page 285... ...
Improvements in both hardware and software technologies should make it possible to operate very large, complex models in a manner that facilitates direct user interaction and lowers costs of access and use. Improved computing environments should facilitate the ability of users to run alternative models, modify important model components, and validate model outputs~ll activities that are critical to researchers' acceptance of microsimulation modeling as an important social science analytical tool.
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From page 286... ...
We also suggest ways for the agencies to obtain more focused research from academic social scientists that would make possible improved modeling capabilities in such areas as incorporating behavioral response. Such involvement on the part of academic researchers is important to maintain and replenish the intellectual capital that underlies the use of microsimulation models for policy analysis purposes.
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From page 287... ...
. are of interest." We also note that, in basic research fields outside social science, microsimulation modeling has become quite commonplace.
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From page 288... ...
Another application of microsimulation modeling that has been closely linked to academic research— namely, the simulation of systems of behavior in urban areas—also illustrates the utility of the technique. Because of complex locational factors interacting with individual behavioral decisions, researchers have found microsimulation modeling to be useful to integrate research about locational choices and consumer demand with housing and transportation policies.
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From page 289... ...
We are hopeful that the confluence of factors identified above including reduced costs of using microsimulation models, the availability of richer data sets, and the existence of a large and growing community of researchers who have hands-on experience in working with complex microdata will lead not only to better policy making but also to the rebirth of a role for microsimulation modeling in social science research and, ultimately, to the full realization of Omutt's dream.
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