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5
Maintaining Flexibility in an Age of Stress and Rapid Change
Chapter 4 established a general framework for assessing the
adequacy of the engineering supply system, from the point of view
of both society and the engineering profession. Based on experience
up to the present time, a variety of general conclusions were
reached about the importance of flexibility and adaptability among
engineers and within the disciplines at critical junctures in the
nation's industrial/technological development. Basically, the panel
finds that the system can respond (and has responded to changing
demand for three reasons: (1) the engineering educational system is
flexible enough to adapt institutionally and pedagogically to new
requirements; (2) students react quickly to economic signals in
opting for or against an engineering career and in choosing
specific fields of engineering study; and (3) historically, change
has seldom occurred more rapidly than individual engineers could
adapt. But a number of characteristics of the engineering
institutional infrastructure were pointed out as being potential
weaknesses in the system, in the face of emerging economic,
technological, and social stresses.
The general conclusions set forth earlier on the adequacy and
functionality of the system were necessarily tentative,
acknowledging the fact that the environment in which the system
operates is changing rapidly. What was lacking was some means of
understanding more clearly how the system might function under
possible future conditions. Accordingly, the panel undertook to
project a number of potential scenarios of situations affecting
engineering and to use past events
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as a basis for estimating the response of the engineering
manpower supply system. The results of the scenario evaluations are
summarized later in this chapter.
How Well Is the System Working?
The primary questions to ask in judging the adequacy of the
engineering manpower supply system as configured today regard its
current responsiveness (in both quantity and quality) and its
potential for adapting to future conditions.
Does the Supply Meet the Demand?
In general, the supply of engineers to meet industrial needs and
societal goals has proven to be adequate in the past. The response
to demand has occurred via three mechanisms. First, engineering
schools have accommodated large fluctuations in student throughput;
they have also adapted organizationally to pressures for different
forms of interdisciplinary engineering study (e.g., environmental
engineering). This process has been largely reactive—that is,
the institutions tend to be conservative and to make such
adjustments only when they are thrust upon them. Consequently,
organizational changes and associated changes in curricula have
often lagged behind changing demand. Nevertheless, the panel finds
that, in general, this element of the system has worked.
Second, individual practitioners have adapted to changing
technology in their field by acquiring new knowledge and mastering
new skills. Often this is a function of exposure to new technology
on the job. In other cases it is a matter of individuals extending
their capabilities through some form of continuing education,
either within the company or by means of formal course work pursued
on their own initiative. When rapid technological change does occur
in a particular field (e.g., the introduction of integrated
circuits), engineers already working in that field are generally
better positioned to keep abreast of those innovations than are
(for example) students.
Third, transdisciplinary movement of engineers has occasionally
been of major importance in supplying engineers to meet an emerging
demand. There are usually enough generic similarities between a new
application (spacecraft, for example) and existing ones (e.g.,
aircraft, submarines, automobiles, and other vehicles) so that
specialists in a particular area can transfer their knowledge into
the new field with relative ease. The organizational aspects of
R&D and production in
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different fields are sufficiently alike that the difficulty of
"plugging in" to a project effort in a different field is minimized
for a practicing engineer.
These three mechanisms have enabled demand for engineers to be
adequately met, in general, in the present era. There have
occasionally been temporary shortages of engineers in specific
fields; in recent years this has been the case in electronics and
computer engineering. But, thus far, these shortages appear to have
been rectified within a reasonable period of time, and before
damage was done to either the domestic or international competitive
strength of companies entering new areas of technology
development.
Is the Quality of the "Product"
Adequate?
The initial output of the engineering manpower supply system is,
of course, the engineering graduate. Whether this human "product"
is adequate to meet the needs of industry is a subject of varying
degrees of debate from one industry to another. Clearly, in those
fields where change is the most rapid and productivity is the most
critical, the pressure for high-quality entry-level engineering
employees will be most intense. Currently in the high-tech
fields—particularly computers and manufacturing
automation—the issue of quality in engineering graduates is
being examined closely. The question of quality has essentially
three facets: (1) whether engineering graduates come equipped with
enough knowledge in their area of specialization; (2) whether, by
contrast, graduates possess adequate breadth of multidisciplinary
skills; and (3) whether these new employees are sufficiently
oriented toward work in the "real world"—that is, whether they
write and communicate well and are quick to learn how they fit into
the organization and how to work productively on a project
team.
Different facets of the contemporary graduate are criticized by
different industry groups at different times. Perhaps the only
consistent criticism is in the third area, and to some extent the
first, in that (based on informal surveys by panel members) new
hires often require a considerable period of in-house training
before they are capable of functioning productively, confidently,
and autonomously in their jobs. Related to this is a criticism by
some employers of the large math/science component in the
educational background of their new employees. The objection is
that the resulting theoretical orientation is impractical for a
young engineer on the job in many types of engineering work.
In a less obvious sense, another output of the engineering
supply system is the engineers who move into new areas and new
disciplines
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in response to emerging demands. The quality of these
''products" is relevant as well. However, because their adequacy
has apparently never been a subject of open concern in industry,
presumably such engineers are satisfactorily meeting the demands of
positions and responsibilities they obtain.
Can the System Function Under
Projected Future Conditions?
Potential Scenarios of the Future
As was pointed out in Chapter 1, one of the main purposes of
this report is to ask the engineering profession: "Where have we
been; where are we now; and where do we go from here?" Previous
chapters have attempted to answer the first two parts of that
question. Based on inferences drawn from that analysis, it should
be possible to project the future functionality of engineering.
It must be pointed out, however, that to attempt such
predictions in a broad sense would be futile. There are too many
unknowns, too many variables external to the engineering system, to
give any hope of accuracy in assessing the future in general. Since
engineering is not a closed system, there can be no satisfactory
predictive models. However, it is possible to examine the
functioning of engineering under well-defined but hypothetical
situations. Therefore, the panel's approach was to propose a set of
circumstances ("scenarios") that might occur and that would have an
impact on engineering. Their actual likelihood or unlikelihood was
not considered to be crucial. The assumption was that it is
possible to select isolated events of sufficient range so as to
test the capacity of the engineering system for handling stressful
change.1 The scenarios examined
were:
1. Continued development toward unmanned factory operation,
resulting in the United States regaining world leadership in
"smokestack" industries (or, alternatively, losing its
competitiveness in manufacturing altogether).
2. Attainment of a recognized capability for commercial
utilization of space facilitated by reliable space transportation
and permanent in-orbit space manufacturing and laboratory
facilities.
1 The
selection of scenarios to be examined was based on panel discussion
of events that were deemed (a) possible within a roughly
10–15 year time frame and (b) at least potentially capable of
exerting severe stress on engineering practice and/or the
engineering supply system. Some 15 potential scenarios were
considered; 6 were selected for evaluation. Individual panel
members were assigned to write one scenario, in which they
attempted to project the likely sequence of events and the impact
on engineering. Each scenario was then discussed by the full
panel.
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3. A major new environmental crisis: large-scale contamination
of groundwater resources.
4. Widespread adoption of automated teaching via computer.
5. Rapid shift to use of composite materials as a replacement
for metals.
6. Sharp fluctuations in the federal budget for defense
R&D.
The analysis of the six hypothetical scenarios provided a set of
"windows" on the future of the engineering supply system. In each
case the panel speculated on what the impact on the engineering
community would be, and determined whether (and by what means) the
system could cope with the specified circumstances.
Significance of the Scenarios
None of the scenarios appeared to exceed the capacity of the
engineering community and the engineering supply system to respond
and adapt. This is certainly a positive reflection of the
flexibility of the system as currently configured and as
demonstrated on several occasions in the recent past. But that is
not to say that there would be no pain associated with the response
to those conditions; indeed, short-term stresses would in most
cases be severe for engineering schools, for companies, and for
individual engineers.
It should also be pointed out that the hypothetical scenarios
were examined in isolation, as if each one were the only unusual
stress being felt by engineering at a given time. In reality, it is
likely that two or more such events would be taking place
simultaneously, with combined effects that would be much more
difficult to predict—and, possibly, to withstand. For example,
at the present time there are a number of new technologies whose
emergence is not a matter of speculation; they are just arriving or
just over the horizon. These include:
• Computer-aided design (CAD), manufacturing (CAM), and
engineering (CAE)
• Biotechnology
• Artificial intelligence
• Fusion reactors
• Space-based weapons systems (lasers, particle beams,
etc.).
Each of these technologies will have a significant impact on
engineering education and practice, particularly when taken
collectively. A wide variety of other scenarios can also be
projected, most of them no less likely to occur than those that the
panel chose to examine. Some of these might be:
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• A major worldwide depression
• A strong economic resurgence leading to a "boom"
economy
• A critical shortfall of essential materials
(e.g.,oil)
• A widespread resurgence of antitechnology sentiment
• A quadrupling of the cost of education.
Because of the uncertainty about what events—and how
many—might occur that would affect engineering, it cannot be
simply assumed that the engineering supply system is well equipped
to meet any conceivable future. Each of the scenarios would create
stress within the engineering community; even today there are
numerous problems of engineering manpower supply, particularly in
the area of education. In the context of a discussion of
flexibility, it would be well to look specifically at these current
stresses.
Where Are the Greatest Stresses
Appearing in the System?
Under current conditions, a number of points of particular
stress can be identified in the engineering community and the
engineering supply system. Some of the stress points are perhaps
temporary, while others are more long term in their effects; but no
attempt is made here to distinguish them on that basis. Instead,
they are divided into those that primarily affect the engineering
educational system and those that place stress on the engineering
community in general.
Educational System Stresses
• The undercapitalization of engineering education; that
is, inadequate funding for plant, laboratory equipment, and faculty
salaries.
• Overloading of engineering-school classrooms and,
conversely, the rejection of some qualified applicants.
• Divergent pressures regarding educational content (more
specialization versus generalist technical training versus more
liberal arts study).
General Stresses
• Technological obsolescence or displacement of engineers,
brought about by both new technology (including automation) and
discontinuous change in technology.
• Diminishing pool of 18-year-olds over the next 15 years,
resulting in reduced engineering personnel supply.
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• Dominance of government demand for engineering goods and
services in the marketplace.
• Fluctuating societal attitudes toward engineering and
technology, which influence the demand for engineering-intensive
products.
• The increased emphasis on factory automation and new
manufacturing processes.
• Increased demand for and perceived shortages of engineers
trained in information and computer sciences.
Representative terms from entire chapter:
engineering community