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MAINTAINING FLEXIBILITY IN AN AGE OF STRESS AND RAPID CHANGE 68 in response to emerging demands. The quality of these ''products" is relevant as well. However, because their adequacy has apparently never been a subject of open concern in industry, presumably such engineers are satisfactorily meeting the demands of positions and responsibilities they obtain. CAN THE SYSTEM FUNCTION UNDER PROJECTED FUTURE CONDITIONS? Potential Scenarios of the Future As was pointed out in Chapter 1, one of the main purposes of this report is to ask the engineering profession: "Where have we been; where are we now; and where do we go from here?" Previous chapters have attempted to answer the first two parts of that question. Based on inferences drawn from that analysis, it should be possible to project the future functionality of engineering. It must be pointed out, however, that to attempt such predictions in a broad sense would be futile. There are too many unknowns, too many variables external to the engineering system, to give any hope of accuracy in assessing the future in general. Since engineering is not a closed system, there can be no satisfactory predictive models. However, it is possible to examine the functioning of engineering under well-defined but hypothetical situations. Therefore, the panel's approach was to propose a set of circumstances ("scenarios") that might occur and that would have an impact on engineering. Their actual likelihood or unlikelihood was not considered to be crucial. The assumption was that it is possible to select isolated events of sufficient range so as to test the capacity of the engineering system for handling stressful change.1 The scenarios examined were: 1. Continued development toward unmanned factory operation, resulting in the United States regaining world leadership in "smokestack" industries (or, alternatively, losing its competitiveness in manufacturing altogether). 2. Attainment of a recognized capability for commercial utilization of space facilitated by reliable space transportation and permanent in- orbit space manufacturing and laboratory facilities. 1 The selection of scenarios to be examined was based on panel discussion of events that were deemed (a) possible within a roughly 10â15 year time frame and (b) at least potentially capable of exerting severe stress on engineering practice and/or the engineering supply system. Some 15 potential scenarios were considered; 6 were selected for evaluation. Individual panel members were assigned to write one scenario, in which they attempted to project the likely sequence of events and the impact on engineering. Each scenario was then discussed by the full panel.
