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MAINTAINING FLEXIBILITY IN AN AGE OF STRESS AND RAPID CHANGE 69 3. A major new environmental crisis: large-scale contamination of groundwater resources. 4. Widespread adoption of automated teaching via computer. 5. Rapid shift to use of composite materials as a replacement for metals. 6. Sharp fluctuations in the federal budget for defense R&D. The analysis of the six hypothetical scenarios provided a set of "windows" on the future of the engineering supply system. In each case the panel speculated on what the impact on the engineering community would be, and determined whether (and by what means) the system could cope with the specified circumstances. Significance of the Scenarios None of the scenarios appeared to exceed the capacity of the engineering community and the engineering supply system to respond and adapt. This is certainly a positive reflection of the flexibility of the system as currently configured and as demonstrated on several occasions in the recent past. But that is not to say that there would be no pain associated with the response to those conditions; indeed, short-term stresses would in most cases be severe for engineering schools, for companies, and for individual engineers. It should also be pointed out that the hypothetical scenarios were examined in isolation, as if each one were the only unusual stress being felt by engineering at a given time. In reality, it is likely that two or more such events would be taking place simultaneously, with combined effects that would be much more difficult to predictâand, possibly, to withstand. For example, at the present time there are a number of new technologies whose emergence is not a matter of speculation; they are just arriving or just over the horizon. These include: ⢠Computer-aided design (CAD), manufacturing (CAM), and engineering (CAE) ⢠Biotechnology ⢠Artificial intelligence ⢠Fusion reactors ⢠Space-based weapons systems (lasers, particle beams, etc.). Each of these technologies will have a significant impact on engineering education and practice, particularly when taken collectively. A wide variety of other scenarios can also be projected, most of them no less likely to occur than those that the panel chose to examine. Some of these might be:
