Transportation's Role in Emergency Evacuation and Reentry (2009)

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74 APPENDIX A EMERGING KNOWLEDGE AND TECHNOLOGIES In addition to the recent development of new and effective field practices, the role of transportation in evacuation also extends to the development and application of new knowledge from research into emerging technologies and ideas. This appendix includes a discussion of emerging knowledge and technological tools in the field, some of which have already been used and others that are in development, under study, or are currently being discussed. Modeling and Simulation An emerging area that has seen significant and rapid improvements in both theory and practice has been in modeling and simulation of evacuation traffic. Recent advances in both the affordability and power of personal computers have resulted in notable advances in the development and application of computer- based evacuation modeling, simulation, and visualization. Over the last decade the creation, adaptation, and utilization of simulation for evacuation traffic analysis has increased rapidly. More than a dozen different general-purpose and specific-use simulation programs are available to evaluate and forecast the impacts of and conditions associated with mass evacuation scenarios. While both the number of programs that are being used and the amount of people using them has been a positive development for evacuation planning, the selection of any particular system for a specific location and hazard can be difficult. Each system comes with varying levels of development effort, computational speed, output fidelity, and so on. They also vary by purpose. Some traffic analysts have preferred to use general-purpose traffic simulation models and adapt them to evacuation conditions, while others have tended toward special-purpose simulation packages developed specifically for emergency evacuation traffic flow modeling. Some of the more notable special-purpose evacuation systems include: MASS eVACuation (MASSVAC), NETwork emergency eVACuation (NETVAC), the Oak Ridge Evacuation Modeling System (OREMS), DYNamic network EVacuation (DYNEV), and the Evacuation Traffic Information System (ETIS). Additional detailed discussion of the capabilities and requirements of these models and others can also be found online in “Appendix F: Hurricane Evacuation Models and Tools” of the recent U.S.DOT “Report to Congress on Catastrophic Hurricane Evacuation Plan Evaluation” (U.S.DOT 2006). A recent effort by Hardy and Wunderlich (2008) compared 30 of the most commonly used simulation systems for evacuation modeling. Among the significant contributions of this work was a characterization of the trade-offs between the scope of the scenario and complexity of the system. The study also included a description of three general classes of modeling scales (macro, meso, and micro) and how each system could be or has been used for modeling evacuation events. The inventory review concluded with an

75 analysis of the ability of each to model varying scopes and complexities as well as the tradeoff between capturing appropriate system detail, developmental effort, and computational speed. The authors used the graphical representation shown in Figure A1 to comparatively illustrate the different scales at which these three modeling scales operate. FIGURE A1 Comparisons of traffic simulation scale and detail (Hardy and Wunderlich 2008). Macroscale Systems At the left of Figure A1, the road network of Seattle metropolitan area is represented at a macroscale level. The representation of traffic flow within macroscale models is often compared to fluid flow through a pipe. At this level of abstraction, roads only down to the functional level of collector-distributor are included and characteristics and movements of individual vehicles and people are aggregated to group averages. Some recent macro-level models have been developed for use in real-time decision support. These tools have been favored by high level decision-makers because they can provide broad view information about how certain transportation system management techniques are likely to impact the movement of evacuees.

76 The diversity and functionality of macroscale evacuation transportation simulation systems are highlighted below using examples of the MASSVAC, OREMS, and ETIS models. These three systems, though all considered macroscopic, require different development effort and yield quite different levels of output. The summary descriptions provided below have been excerpted from the appendix of the 2006 U.S.DOT Report to Congress (U.S.DOT 2006). The precursor to MASSVAC was NETVAC. NETVAC was developed 1982 in response to the Three- Mile Island nuclear reactor incident three years prior. While useful for evacuation with single Point-A-to- Point-B traffic movements, it was found to be limited in applicability to hurricane evacuation, which more often includes multiple origins and destinations. Transportation and emergency managers have used the model to analyze route selection, intersection controls, and lane management. MASSVAC was released in 1985, as a more robust and flexible simulation model designed for “the analysis and evaluation of evacuation plans for urban areas threatened by natural disasters,” including floods, hurricanes, tsunamis, and other related events. It is capable of simulating flow on highway networks and identifying the available efficient routes from a hazard area to the nearest shelters and calculating the evacuation time for the network. In the mid-1990s, the Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratories Center for Transportation Analysis developed the OREMS, “to simulate traffic flow during various defense-oriented emergency evacuations.” The system was based on the U.S.DOT FREEFLO platform which gave it instant familiarity to traffic modelers who were acquainted with the data input and modeling processes of the CORSIM system. It is a probabilistic model that uses network characteristics that, with local knowledge, can be produced with baseline data inputs. Like NETVAC, OREMS shows how a solution for one homeland security problem (terrorist incident) can be cross-applied to another (hurricanes). However, it has not been empirically validated by the developers for hurricane evacuations. As described in its online documentation (ORNL 2005), some uses of OREMS include: • modeling of large transportation networks (covering emergency planning zones that cover thousands of square miles), • determining the feasibility of evacuation without detailed route planning, • identifying best evacuation routes, • identifying bottlenecks that would constrain the flow of traffic, • assessing the effectiveness of alternative traffic control strategies, • assessing the effectiveness of different evacuation strategies,

77 • estimating traffic speed and other measures of effectiveness on specific roads or potions of the network, and • estimating clearance times for the network or potions of the network. Some of the advantages of OREMS include: • easy data entry through a user-friendly interface, • extensive context-sensitive help, • ability to create evacuation zones through a rubberbanding tool, • ability to zoom in and out of the network, • ability to model evacuee response rates, • ability to easily modify the network to simulate accidents or other impediments, • ability to modify the network to assess traffic control strategies such as lane reversal, and • ability to graphically display the results of the simulation statically and dynamically. The ETIS system was created under the support and direction of the U.S.DOT as a direct response to significant cross-state regional traffic problems that were encountered during the evacuation for Hurricane Floyd in 1999. The ETIS program operates on a model that combines behavioral studies, data from past occurrences, and real-time data from ongoing incidents, including weather information, evacuation percentages, and tourist occupancy rates in affected areas. Originally favored by emergency management agencies, it is a web-based GIS tool that assists with collection and dissemination of transportation information during an evacuation. During an emergency transportation officials in each threatened state are responsible for entering information for coastal counties on evacuation status, tourist occupancy, evacuation participation rates, and traffic count information. With this information, ETIS provides a platform for States and the FEMA Regional Operations Center to monitor the overall evacuation process. Among its most useful features was its ability to forecast the amount total cross-state traffic and the likely destinations of the evacuees. Mesoscale Systems In the middle of Figure A1 is a representation of the group of tools classified as mesoscopic models. These systems are typically used to represent larger geographic areas than micro models while permitting the computation of more disaggregate results than macro models. Various models within the mesoscale category can have more or fewer characteristics of the micro and macro categories. One way mesoscale results are produced is by subdividing a corridor into sub-segments where the movement of vehicles is

78 aggregated to represent “average” flow rates and speeds. The cell transmission technique is one example of such an approach. Recently, the U.S.DOT has supported developmental work to investigate adaptability of the mesoscale TRansportation ANalysis and SIMulation System (TRANSIMS) for the purposes of evacuation traffic analysis. TRANSIMS is a set of activity-based travel modeling procedures that give detailed output on travel, congestion, and emissions in highway networks. Because TRANSIMS has the capability to evaluate highly congested scenarios and operational changes on highways and transit systems, it has been thought to be ideally suited to the analysis of multimodal mass evacuation scenarios. Originally developed by researchers at the Los Alamos National Laboratory and commercially available free of charge through the FHWA Transportation Model Improvement Program (TMIP) website, TRANSIMS incorporates four primary modules, including a population synthesizer, an activity generator, a route planner, and a traffic microsimulator. Using these four components, the system can estimate activities for individuals and households, plans trips satisfying those activities, assigns trips to routes, and creates a microsimulation of all vehicles, transportation systems, and resulting traffic in a given study area (web source: http://tmip.tamu.edu/transims/). Preliminary data from an in-progress FHWA TRANSIMS study of New Orleans illustrates the potential applicability of the system for evacuation traffic analysis. Among it strengths are its ability to: simulate networks over enormous geographic areas that may encompass thousands of square miles, as shown in • model intermodal evacuations that include pedestrian, passenger vehicle, and transit modes; • track and collect detailed statistics on millions of separate vehicles over several days; and • produce output that can be displayed over high resolution aerial photography using animations as shown in Figure A3 and graphically as shown in Figure A4.

79 FIGURE A2 New Orleans evacuation simulation TRANSIMS regional road network. FIGURE A3 New Orleans evacuation simulation animation. FIGURE A2 New Orleans evacuation simulation TRANSIMS regional road network. FIGURE A3 New Orleans evacuation simulation animation.

80 FIGURE A4 Evacuation travel speed space-time diagram. Although the TRANSIMS system appears to be a promising avenue for mass evacuation simulations, it is not without some limitations. Among the most significant of these drawbacks is the significant level of effort required to code, calibrate, and validate the model. Calibration is particularly difficult for evacuations because few comparative evacuation traffic data sets exist. Another is the limited level of user-friendliness of the system. Currently, the program does not incorporate any type of graphical user interface. The U.S.DOT has recently redeveloped TRASNIMS to operate in a PC environment and is currently working toward simplifying its coding and model development processes. Microscale Systems Microlevel simulation systems afford the highest level of fidelity of the three platform types. Detailed performance measures can be produced for individual vehicles and specific locations, even down to specific intersection approach lanes. However, this additional detail comes with a price. Two major drawbacks to microscale modeling are the coding effort required to represent the network as well as limited area and time durations that can be represented. These issues have limited the applicability of microlevel modeling for the simulation of large-scale evacuation scenarios. In the past, microscale models have been used to represent only portions of road segments because of the input data and coding challenges. Prior micro models have been used to focus on critical interchanges and contraflow termini. In these cases, however, they were immensely useful to analyze specific operating and performance characteristics in these vicinities. Another limiting factor for micro models can be computational time. Because of the required level of their detail, micro models can take many hours to

81 process. This can result in lengthy delays when multiple iterations are required for alternative scenario analyses. Some examples of prior microcale modeling applications include the use of the CORSIM system for the planning of the I-10 contraflow segment out of the New Orleans metropolitan area (Wolshon et al. 2006) and for the assessment of subdivision-level evacuation for wildfire emergencies (Wolshon and Marchive 2007). In the New Orleans application, micro-modeling was used to assess the performance of the contraflow segment by focusing on the initiation and termination points since these have been recognized to effectively regulate the capacity of reversible flow segments (Lambert and Wolshon 2008). The models were used to predict the operating conditions associated with the segment as well as identifying methods to enhance the flow characteristics around them (Lim and Wolshon 2005, Theodoulou and Wolshon 2004). A similar study conducted in North Carolina proved to be instrumental in the development of enhancements in the loading configuration of the I-40 contraflow segment starting in Wilmington (Williams et al 2007). Other Research and Development Initiatives Several other areas of research exploration and knowledge development have been occurring across a variety of related areas of specialization. Among those receiving the most significant recent interest are: • needs for assisted evacuation, • human behavioral aspects of evacuation process, • evacuation transportation planning and demand forecasting, • traffic control and management during emergencies, and • transportation resource planning and allocation. Although much of the recent work has been geared toward evacuations in urbanized areas and hurricane hazards, efforts have also been ongoing for other types of hazards including terrorist events and other scenarios with limited advanced notice. Among the most active agencies in evacuation information dissemination has been the U.S.DOT through the FHWA and the FTA. Over the past several years, the U.S.DOT has published (or is planning to publish) a series of more than 20 reports aimed at improving transportation operations and mobility during emergencies. The document titles along with their FHWA document numbers are listed in Table A1. All of them are also available on the FHWA Emergency Transportation Operations electronic document library website at: http://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/publications/publications.htm.

82 TABLE A1 FHWA EMERGENCY TRANSPORTATION OPERATIONS ELECTRONIC DOCUMENTS Publication Title FHWA Document No. Best of Public Safety and Emergency Transportation Operations CD FHWA-JPO-08-037 Using Highways For No-Notice Evacuations - Routes to Effective Evacuation Planning Primer Series FHWA-HOP-08-003 Common Issues in Emergency Transportation Operations Preparedness and Response: Results of the FHWA Workshop Series FHWA-HOP-07-090 Best Practices in Emergency Transportation Operations Preparedness and Response: Results of the FHWA Workshop Series FHWA-HOP-07-076 Communicating With the Public Using ATIS During Disasters: A Guide for Practitioners FHWA-HOP-07-068 Managing Pedestrians During Evacuation of Metropolitan Areas FHWA-HOP-07-066 Routes to Effective Evacuation Planning Primer Series: Using Highways During Evacuation Operations for Events with Advance Notice FHWA-HOP-06-109 Transportation Evacuation Planning and Operations Workshop FHWA-HOP-06-076 Coordinating Military Deployments on Roads and Highways: A Guide for State and Local Agencies FHWA-HOP-05-029 Emergency Transportation Response Overview FHWA-OP-04-048 Public Safety & Security Program: Keep America Moving Through Emergencies & National Security Events FHWA-OP-03-108 What Have We Learned About Intelligent Transportation Systems? Chapter 2: What Have We Learned About Freeway, Incident and Emergency Management and Electronic Toll Collection? FHWA-OP-01-006 Intelligent Transportation Systems Field Operational Test Cross-Cutting Study: Emergency Notification and Response FHWA-JPO-99-033 Faster Response Time, Effective Use of Resources – Integrating Transportation and Emergency Management Systems FHWA-JPO-99-004 Speeding Response, Saving Lives – Automatic Vehicle Location Capabilities for Emergency Vehicles FHWA-JPO-99-003 Enhancing Public Safety, Saving Lives – Emergency Vehicle Preemption FHWA-JPO-99-002 Effects of Catastrophic Events on Transportation Systems Management and Operations: Howard Street Tunnel Fire Baltimore City Web publication only Effects of Catastrophic Events on Transportation Systems Management and Operations: Northridge Earthquake January 17, 1994 Web publication only Effects of Catastrophic Events on Transportation Systems Management and Operations: Cross-Cutting Study Web publication only Emergency Transportation Operations Planning Documents Not yet published Additional Emergency Transportation Operations - Prevention Not yet published Additional Emergency Transportation Operations - Preparedness Not yet published

83 Additional Emergency Transportation Operations - Response Not yet published Additional Emergency Transportation Operations - Recovery Not yet published Additional Emergency Transportation Operations - Additional Resources Not yet published (Source: http://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/publications/publications.htm.) The FTA has also been active in developing new information related to the use of transit for assisted and public transportation evacuations. One of the most significant is the currently ongoing National Study on Carless and Special Needs Evacuation Planning (Renne et al. 2008). Much of the information in this report compliments a closely related and congressionally mandated study by the Transportation Research Board of the National Academies on The Role of Transit in Emergency Evacuation (NAS 2008). It is expected that both of these studies will become available for use concurrently with the publication of this synthesis or shortly there after. Recently, the U.S.DOT has also funded the creation of a University Transportation Center (UTC) focused on evacuation-related transportation issues. The Gulf Coast Research Center for Evacuation and Transportation Resiliency, a jointly administered effort between Louisiana State University and the University of New Orleans, will engaged efforts to forward research, education, technology transfer activities in the areas of evacuation traffic planning, modeling, and engineering; the use of mass transportation resources for evacuation; and transportation infrastructure systems to support evacuations among other tasks. Several of the national laboratories are also engaged in evacuation-related work. In addition to their long history of evacuation work for the NRC, the Sandia National Laboratories in collaboration with the Los Alamos National Laboratory, houses the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC) in Albuquerque, New Mexico (internet webpage: http://www.sandia.gov/nisac/index.html). As one of it many activities, NISAC conducts simulation studies of hazard impacts on various infrastructure systems, including highway evacuations. The Oak Ridge National Laboratory, through its National Transportation Research Center, has developed its own modeling tool for evacuation traffic analysis (discussed earlier in this chapter) and has also done work in truck evacuations. The Argonne National Laboratory is currently engaged in large-scale evacuation traffic analyses for the city of Chicago and is developing various high- powered computer capabilities and visualization systems for evacuation. Other organizations such as the National Science Foundation, the Department of Homeland Security, and the National Academies of Science and Engineering through TRB, and the National Cooperative

84 Highway and Transit Research Programs have all also sponsored numerous evacuation-related projects of the past decade. The numbers and specifics of these projects are too numerous to include in this single report. However, descriptions and points of contact for these studies are widely available through their internet web pages. Finally, the Transportation Research Board has also supported a committee dedicated to the purpose of developing, coordinating, and disseminating evacuation-related transportation research information. Initiated in 2000, the TRB Subcommittee on Emergency Evacuation (TRB Committee ANB10-3), was founded to serve as the national focal point for evacuation-related transportation research activities. The membership of the subcommittee is not limited in number and encompasses a diverse group of transportation professionals in the private and public sectors involved or interested in the design, planning, management, operation, enforcement, and research of transportation resources for evacuation.