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Describing Socioeconomic Futures for Climate Change Research and Assessment: Report of a Workshop (2010)

Chapter: Appendix A: Workshop Agenda and List of Participants

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Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Workshop Agenda and List of Participants." National Research Council. 2010. Describing Socioeconomic Futures for Climate Change Research and Assessment: Report of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13007.
×

Appendix A
Workshop Agenda and List of Participants

AGENDA

Thursday, February 4, 2010

Session 1:
New Scenarios for Climate Change Research and Assessment, Thomas J. Wilbanks, Chair

8:30 a.m.

Workshop Objectives, Concepts, and Definitions, Richard Moss

8:50

Advancing the State of Science for Projecting Socioeconomic Futures, Thomas J. Wilbanks

9:10

Perspectives on Needs for Socioeconomic Scenarios

  • Impacts, Adaptation, Vulnerability, and IPCC WG II, Chris Field

  • Mitigation and IPCC WG III, Ottmar Edenhofer

  • Ecosystem Services, Anthony Janetos

  • Energy Trends and the Global Energy Assessment, Nebojsa Nakićenović

9:45

Relevance of the New Scenario Process, Richard Moss

10:15

Discussion

Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Workshop Agenda and List of Participants." National Research Council. 2010. Describing Socioeconomic Futures for Climate Change Research and Assessment: Report of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13007.
×

10:45

Coffee break

Session 2:
Evolving Methods and Approaches, Thomas J. Wilbanks, Chair

11:15

Philosophies and State of Science in Projecting Long-Term Socioeconomic Change, Robert Lempert

11:45

Panel Discussion: Issues in Projecting Socioeconomic Change

  • Demographic Change, Thomas Buettner

  • Economic Development, Gary Yohe

  • Connecting Narrative Story Lines with Quantitative Socioeconomic Projections, Ritu Mathur

  • Quantitative Downscaling Approaches, Tom Kram

  • U.S. Department of Interior Scenarios

12:30 p.m.

Lunch

Session 3:
Driving Forces and Critical Uncertainties—Adaptation/Vulnerability and Mitigation, Chris Field, Chair

This session will include both plenary and breakout groups that seek to stimulate discussion of the major forces that will influence future vulnerability, adaptation potential, and mitigation potential to be analyzed in future scenarios. Breakout groups will meet for several hours today and reconvene over lunch on Friday.

1:30

Importance of “Driving Forces” and Critical Uncertainties in Scenario Construction, M. Granger Morgan

1:45

Panel and Open Discussion: Illustrative Drivers and Uncertainties for Adaptation/Vulnerability and Mitigation

This session will include short (5-minute) interventions on driving forces and disciplinary perspectives in a number of domains relevant to assessing future vulnerability, adaptation, and mitigation. Open discussion involving all participants will follow.

 

  • Population, Brian O’Neill

  • Economy and Infrastructure, Gary Yohe

  • Technology, Nebojsa Nakićenov

Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Workshop Agenda and List of Participants." National Research Council. 2010. Describing Socioeconomic Futures for Climate Change Research and Assessment: Report of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13007.
×

 

  • Transportation, Including Regional Planning, Michael Replogle

  • Policy and Institutions, Frans Berkhout

  • First and Second Best Policies, Elmar Kriegler

  • Ecosystems and Water Resources, Habiba Gitay

  • Food, Nutrition, and Bioenergy, Gerald Nelson

  • Health, Kristie Ebi

3:45

Introduction of Breakout Groups

4:00

Break

Breakout Groups: Driving Forces and Critical Uncertainties for IAV and Mitigation

Terms of reference for breakout groups: Breakout groups are an opportunity for exchange of views on topics of interest to each group. However, each group should find time to discuss three broad sets of issues and to prepare notes and an oral report on your discussions on the following questions:

  1. What factors are most important to include in socioeconomic and environmental scenarios in order to assess adaptation/mitigation?

  2. How are adaptation and mitigation linked with one another and with other issues such as land use change, food security, water resources, and security, and how these linkages should be addressed in scenarios?

  3. What are the major challenges in developing socioeconomic scenarios, (e.g., relating global and local/regional scales, framing uncertainties, working to an appropriate level of detail)?

4:15

Breakout Groups

Group A:

IAV 2020-2050, Chair, Kristie Ebi; Rapporteur, Linda Mearns

Group B:

IAV to 2100, Chair, Gary Yohe; Rapporteur, Ferenc Toth

Group C:

Mitigation 2020-2050, Chair, Mikiko Kainuma; Rapporteur, Michael Mastrandrea

Group D:

Mitigation to 2100, Chair, Tom Kram; Rapporteur, Volker Krey

Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Workshop Agenda and List of Participants." National Research Council. 2010. Describing Socioeconomic Futures for Climate Change Research and Assessment: Report of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13007.
×

Friday, February 5, 2010

Session 4:
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Socioeconomic Scenarios and Narratives, John Weyant, Chair

8:30 a.m.

Characteristics, Uses, and Limits of the RCPs, Jae Edmonds

9:00

Multi-Model Analysis of Key Assumptions Underlying the RCPs, Tom Kram

9:30

Discussion

10:10

Coffee break

Session 5:
Lessons from Experience, Anthony Janetos, Chair

10:30

Panel Discussion: Lessons from Prior and Ongoing Activities

 

Speakers will have approximately 10 minutes each to reflect on lessons from development and application of socioeconomic scenarios in prior assessments or planning exercises

  • SRES, Nebojsa Nakićenović

  • Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, Gerald Nelson

  • U.S. National Assessment, M. Granger Morgan

  • UKCIP, Frans Berkhout

  • Private Sector, Peter Schwartz

  • Asia Low Carbon Society Project, Mikiko Kainuma

11:40

Discussion

Session 6:
Toward a Research Strategy, Ottmar Edenhofer, Chair

2:00 p.m.

Breakout groups report on driving forces and key uncertainties to be addressed in scenarios/narratives.

3:00

Panel Discussion: Developing Socioeconomic Scenarios/Narratives for Future Research and Assessment

Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Workshop Agenda and List of Participants." National Research Council. 2010. Describing Socioeconomic Futures for Climate Change Research and Assessment: Report of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13007.
×

 

Four speakers will give their observations on characteristics of the scenarios/narratives that need to be developed to support future research and assessments including, but not limited to, socioeconomic narratives and scenarios to complement the RCPs.

  1. IAV, Chris Field

  2. Mitigation, Ottmar Edenhofer

  3. National adaptation assessments and planning, Anthony Janetos

  4. International organizations, Ian Noble

4:00

Discussion

4:30

Next Steps in Advancing Socioeconomic Projections, Thomas J. Wilbanks

5:00

Adjourn

PARTICIPANTS

Ines Azevedo, Carnegie Mellon University

Martha Macedo de Lima Barata, Oswaldo Cruz Institute, Fiocruz and Centre for Integrated Studies on Environment and Climate Change, Brazil

Frans Berkhout, Institute for Environmental Studies, Free University of Amsterdam

Thomas Buettner, Population Studies Branch, U.N. Population Division/DESA, New York

Kristie Ebi, IPCC Working Group II, Technical Support, Carnegie Institution, Stanford, CA

Ottmar Edenhofer, IPCC-Working Group III, Potsdam, Germany

Jae Edmonds, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and University of Maryland

Chris Field, Department of Global Ecology, Stanford University and Carnegie Institution, Stanford, CA

Sarah Gillig, Communication Partnership for Science and the Sea (COMPASS), Silver Spring, MD

Habiba Gitay, The World Bank, Washington, DC

Patrick Gonzalez, Center for Forestry, University of California, Berkeley

Stephane Hallegatte, CIRED/Meteo-France, Nogent-sur-Marne, France

Kathy Hibbard, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA

Yasuaki Hijioka, Social and Enviromental Systems Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan

Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Workshop Agenda and List of Participants." National Research Council. 2010. Describing Socioeconomic Futures for Climate Change Research and Assessment: Report of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13007.
×

George Hurtt, Complex Systems Research Center, University of New Hampshire

Anthony Janetos, Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and University of Maryland

Zou Ji, World Resources Institute, Renmin University of China, Beijing

Kejun Jiang, Energy Research Institute, China

Mikiko Kainuma, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Onogawa, Tsukuba, Japan

Robert Kopp, Office of Climate Change Policy and Technology, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC

Tom Kram, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven

Volker Krey, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria

Elmar Kriegler, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany

Hadas Kushnir, The National Academies, Washington, DC

Robert Lempert, Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, CA

Marc Levy, Center for International Earth Sciences Information Network, Columbia University

Michael MacCracken, Climate Institute, Washington, DC

Michael Mastrandrea, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford University

Ritu Mathur, The Energy and Resources Institute, New Delhi, India

Patrick Matschoss, IPCC-TSU-Working Group III, Potsdam, Germany

Linda Mearns, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO

Nobou Mimura, Center for Water Environment Studies Ibaraki University, Hitachi, Ibaraki, Japan

M. Granger Morgan, Carnegie Mellon University

Richard Moss, Joint Global Change Research Institute, University of Maryland

Nebojsa Nakićenović, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria

Gerald Nelson, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC

Ian Noble, The World Bank, Washington, DC

Robert O’Connor, National Science Foundation, Arlington, VA

Cara O’Donnell, Science and Technology Policy Institute, Washington DC

Brian O’Neill, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO

Jon Padgham, START, Washington, DC

Michael Replogle, Institute for Transportation and Development Policy, Washington, DC

Steven Rose, Global Climate Change Policy Resource Center, Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA

Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Workshop Agenda and List of Participants." National Research Council. 2010. Describing Socioeconomic Futures for Climate Change Research and Assessment: Report of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13007.
×

Steffen Schloemer, IPCC-Working Group III, Potsdam, Germany

Peter Schwartz, Global Business Network, San Francisco, CA

Avery Sen, Office of Program Planning and Integration, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, MD

P.R. Shukla, Indian Institute of Management, Vastrapur, Ahmedabad, India

Paul C. Stern, The National Academies, Washington, DC

Miron Straf, The National Academies, Washington, DC

Massimo Tavoni, Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton University

Allison Thompson, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD

Ferenc Toth, Department of Nuclear Energy, International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna, Austria

Robert Vallario, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC

Detlef van Vuuren, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven

Hassan Virji, START, Washington, DC

Thanh Vo Dinh, Office of Program Planning and Integration, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, MD

Brian Wee, NEON, Inc. Boulder, CO

Leigh Welling, U.S. National Park Service, Washington, DC

John Weyant, Department of Management Science and Engineering, Stanford University

Thomas J. Wilbanks, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN

Gary Yohe, Department of Economics, Wesleyan University

Timm Zwickel, IPCC-TSU-Working Group III, Potsdam, Germany

Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Workshop Agenda and List of Participants." National Research Council. 2010. Describing Socioeconomic Futures for Climate Change Research and Assessment: Report of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13007.
×

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Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Workshop Agenda and List of Participants." National Research Council. 2010. Describing Socioeconomic Futures for Climate Change Research and Assessment: Report of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13007.
×
Page 51
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Workshop Agenda and List of Participants." National Research Council. 2010. Describing Socioeconomic Futures for Climate Change Research and Assessment: Report of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13007.
×
Page 52
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Workshop Agenda and List of Participants." National Research Council. 2010. Describing Socioeconomic Futures for Climate Change Research and Assessment: Report of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13007.
×
Page 53
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Workshop Agenda and List of Participants." National Research Council. 2010. Describing Socioeconomic Futures for Climate Change Research and Assessment: Report of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13007.
×
Page 54
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Workshop Agenda and List of Participants." National Research Council. 2010. Describing Socioeconomic Futures for Climate Change Research and Assessment: Report of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13007.
×
Page 55
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Workshop Agenda and List of Participants." National Research Council. 2010. Describing Socioeconomic Futures for Climate Change Research and Assessment: Report of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13007.
×
Page 56
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Workshop Agenda and List of Participants." National Research Council. 2010. Describing Socioeconomic Futures for Climate Change Research and Assessment: Report of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13007.
×
Page 57
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Workshop Agenda and List of Participants." National Research Council. 2010. Describing Socioeconomic Futures for Climate Change Research and Assessment: Report of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13007.
×
Page 58
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The implications of climate change for the environment and society depend on the rate and magnitude of climate change, but also on changes in technology, economics, lifestyles, and policy that will affect the capacity both for limiting and adapting to climate change. Describing Socioeconomic Futures for Climate Change Research and Assessment reviews the state of science for considering socioeconomic changes over long time frames and clarifies definitions and concepts to facilitate communication across research communities. The book also explores driving forces and key uncertainties that will affect impacts, adaptation, vulnerability and mitigation in the future. Furthermore, it considers research needs and the elements of a strategy for describing socioeconomic and environmental futures for climate change research and assessment.

Describing Socioeconomic Futures for Climate Change Research and Assessment explores the current state of science in scenario development and application, asserting that while little attention has been given to preparing quantitative and narrative socioeconomic information, advances in computing capacity are making development of such probabilistic scenarios a reality. It also addresses a number of specific methodological challenges and opportunities and discusses opportunities for a next round of assessments.

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