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s OUTLOOK FOR SUPPLY OF NUCLEAR ENGINEERS The potential supply of nuclear engineers is primarily a function of the supply of those who obtain degrees in quantitative fields. "Quantitative fields" include engineering, mathematics, the physical sciences, and the computer and information sciences. In this chapter, the terms "nuclear engineer," "engineer," "mathematician," "computer scientist," and "physical scientist" are defined by the field of degree, not by activity subsequent to graduation. The minimum degree level considered in this study is the bachelor's level. The number who obtain degrees in nuclear engineering varies, depending on such variables as (1) the perceived and actual demand for nuclear engineers, as indicated to students by such measures as wages and employer recruiting activities, (2) scholarship support for such training relative to support for training in related fields, such as other subfields of engineering or physics, (3) social attitudes toward nuclear energy, and (4) the size and vitality of the nuclear engineering educational infrastructure. The "swing" in the supply of nuclear engineers is also heavily constrained by the supply of those who have interests in and abilities to pursue quantitative fields. Some questions about the future supply of nuclear engineers can be answered by examining the history of and projected future of quantitative degrees. To assess future supply, trends in degree completion over the last decade for all fields, quantitative fields, engineering, and nuclear engineering were examined. National Center for Education Statistics data bases were used to describe trends in all degrees, quantitative degrees, and engineering degrees. These statistics do not identify nuclear engineering as an engineering subfield, so to estimate past supply of nuclear engineers, Department of Energy (DOE) and Engineering Manpower Commission (EMC) data bases were also used (DOE, 1984 and 1989; EMC, 1979-1989; NCES, 1980-1989~. 57
58 The committee also tried to establish the potential supply of quantitative degree holders, as indicated by trends in students' tested mathematics and verbal abilities that nuclear engineering undergraduate programs have identified as required to pursue such degrees. Although the past obviously does not necessarily predict the future, it can give some indication of future supply. (For example, Asian immigration rates will affect the number of quantitative degree holders, but it is difficult to predict these rates and, therefore, their degree consequences.) To simplify the following discussion, many of the data tables on which this chapter is based are found in Appendix F. DEGREE TRENDS FOR ALL FIELDS AND QUANTITATIVE FIELDS The period from 1977 to 1987 shows an 8-percent increase (from 917,900 to 991,260) in the number of all bachelor's degrees awarded annually including both B.A.s and B.S.s, a 9-percent decrease (from 316,602 to 289,341) in all master's degrees (both M.A.s and M.S.s), and a 3-percent increase (from 33,126 to 34,033) in all Ph.D. degrees (see Appendix F. Table Fin. With nonresident aliens excluded from these numbers, the bachelor's degrees awarded are relatively unchanged, master's degrees awarded declines by 13 percent, and Ph.D.s awarded decrease by nearly 7 percent. Over this period, nonresident aliens increased their share of total master's degrees by almost 90 percent and their share of total Ph.D. degrees by over 70 percent (see Table F-2~. Table 5-1 shows a picture for quantitative degrees radically different from that for total degrees. Between 1977 and 1987 the number of quantitative degrees awarded increased substantially at all degree levels, regardless of whether nonresident aliens were taken into account. The number of quantitative degrees going to U.S. residents increased by 62 and 29 percent at the B.S. and M.S. levels respectively, while doctorates awarded remained stable (the increase in total Ph.D. degrees awarded is almost entirely attributable to nonresident aliens) (see Table F-3~. An analysis of quantitative degrees awarded as a share of all degrees awarded, for all degree recipients, U.S. residents, and nonresident aliens, shows that this share increased between 1977 and 1987 for all degree levels and for all three groups (see Table F-49. If a quantitative degree holder is viewed as a potential nuclear engineering student, then between 1977 and 1987 the potential supply of nuclear engineers increased substantially in absolute numbers and as a share of all degrees awarded.
59 TABLE 5-1 Quantitative Degrees Granted by Degree Level and U.S. Residency Status, 1977 and 1987 Total U.S. Residentsa Percent Percent Degree Level 1977 1987 Change 1977 1987 Change B.S. M.S. Ph.D. 91,191 149,944 64.4 86,474 139,945 61.8 27,570 39,476 43.2 22,637 29,253 29.2 6,952 8,575 23.4 5,368 5,379 0.2 IS. residents includes U.S. citizens and resident aliens. SOURCES: U.S. Department of Education (1980, 1989~. DEGREE TRENDS IN ENGINEERING AND NUCLEAR ENGINEERING As Table 5-2 shows, engineering degrees earned increased substantially between 1978 and 1988 at all degree levels, with the production of B.S. degrees in engineering peaking in 1986 at 78,178 (EMC, 1979-1989~. During this period B.S., M.S., and Ph.D. degrees in engineering increased 55, 58, and 78 percent, respectively. Even with nonresident aliens excluded, there were substantial increases at all degree levels. The number of engineering degrees awarded were not a main factor in the increase in quantitative degrees during the decade. Engineering degrees constituted smaller shares of quantitative degrees in 1987 than in 1977 for total engineering degrees at the B.S. and M.S. levels, for U.S. resident B.S. degrees, and for nonresident alien B.S. and M.S. degrees. In other words, although the absolute number of engineering degrees awarded at all levels increased during the decade, the increases in nonengineering quantitative degrees were generally greater. Thus, the increase in quantitative degrees is more significant (see Table F-69. However, as engineering gained at all degree levels, nuclear engineering decreased at all degree levels except at the doctoral level. From 1978 to 1988 there were 44- and 52-percent decreases in nuclear engineering B.S. and M.S. degrees, respectively, while the number of total nuclear engineering doctorates remained relatively stable. Removing nonresident aliens from the numbers reveals the magnitude of the decline in M.S. and Ph.D. levels for U.S. residents: a 62 percent decline in M.S. degrees awarded and a 25 percent decrease in the number of doctorates awarded.
60 TABLE 5-2 Engineering and Nuclear Engineering Degrees Granted, by Degree Level and U.S. Residency Status, 1978 and 1988 Total Field and Percent Degree Level 1978 1988 Change All Engineering U S Residentsa Percent 1978 1988 Change B.S. 46,09171,38654.942,99765,623 52.6 M.S. 16,18225,61658.312,60318,338 45.5 Ph.D. 2,5734,57177.71,6992,538 49.4 Nuclear Engineering B.S. 863484-43.9822463 -43.7 M.S. 486232-52.3383145 -62.1 Ph.D. 1121141.87758 -24.7 a U. S . residents includes U.S. citizens and resident aliens. SOURCES: Engineering Manpower Commission (1979-1989), for all engineers; U.S. Department of Energy (1984, 1989), for nuclear engineers. DEGREE TRENDS BY GENDER, RACE, AND ETHNICITY Historically, relatively small numbers of quantitative degrees have been awarded to women and non-Asian minorities. Even small changes in this pattern could provide long-term expansion of the supply of professionals in quantitative fields. Degree Trends for Women Degrees awarded to women increased in all fields between 1977 and 1987, both in absolute numbers at the bachelor's, master's, and Ph.D. levels, and as a share of total degrees awarded at all three levels. Over the same period, degrees awarded to men decreased at all three degree levels, both in absolute numbers and as a share of degrees (see Table Fib. Between 1977 and 1987 the absolute number of quantitative degrees at all degree levels increased for both men and women. However, increases for women were proportionally greater at all degree levels, especially at the B.S. level (see Table 5-39. Since nonresident aliens earn a substantial fraction of the quantitative degrees awarded, especially at the M.S. and Ph.D. levels, and nonresident aliens are disproportionately male, eliminating nonresident aliens
61 further increases the share of U.S. resident women's quantitative degree awards at all degree levels (see Table F-8~. TABLE 5-3 Quantitative Degrees Granted, by Degree Level and Gender, 1977 and 1987 1977 _ 1987 Degree Percent Percent Level MaleFemale Female Male Female Female B.S. 78,240 14,143 15.3 111,598 38,346 25.6 M.S. 24,703 3,366 12.0 31,506 7,970 20.2 Ph.D. 6,446 520 7.5 7,504 1,071 12.5 SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics (1980, 1989~. Since women have increased their absolute numbers and shares of degrees in all fields, are their increases in quantitative degree numbers and shares simply attributable to increased numbers of women completing post-secondary degrees? An examination of women's quantitative degrees as shares of their total degrees shows that a woman who received a degree at any of the three levels in 1987 was more likely than her 1977 or 1981 counterpart to receive it in a quantitative field. Thus, the data show small, but positive, shifts of women toward quantitative fields (see Tables F-9 and F-10~. Women in 1988 earned substantially greater numbers and shares of engineering degrees, doubling or tripling their 1978 shares at all degree levels (see Table F-ll), though again, even by 1988, the number of engineering degrees earned by women was still relatively small at all degree levels. Still, contrary to the downward B.S. and M.S. degree trends in nuclear engineering for men during the decade, women showed a small increase by 1988 in absolute numbers and in the fraction of nuclear engineering degrees they earned at the B.S. and M.S. levels. Degree Trends by Race and Ethnicity Relative to 1977, total degrees earned by White non-Hispanics and Black non Hispanics in 1987 decreased at all degree levels, except for a minor increase
62 for Whites at the B.A./B.S. level. All other groups--Hispanics, American Indians, and Asians--show increases at all degree levels (see Table F-12~.1 A different result emerges from the data for quantitative degrees granted between 1977 and 1987 by race, ethnicity, and degree level. Relative to 1977, 1987 shows increases for all subgroups in quantitative degrees earned at the B.S. and M.S. levels (see Table F-13~. The size of the college-age population is increasing for Blacks, Hispanics, and Asians relative to Whites. The Ph.D. level shows a mixed picture: losses for White non-Hispanics and Black non- Hispanics and gains for Hispanics and Asians. The absolute numbers are so small for American Indians that trends for this group are insignificant. The decrease for Whites and the increase for Hispanics and Asians seem relatively robust, but this is uncertain and it is difficult to separate the roles of changes in population bases and in degree production rates in these results. Between 1978 and 1988 all subgroups also increased in the number of engineering degrees awarded at all levels (though American Indians showed no change at the Ph.D. level). Except for the White subgroup, the numbers are small, especially at the Ph.D. level, but trends in the number of engineering degrees are uniformly positive (Table 5-49. The story is different for nuclear engineering. Except for Whites, who show significant losses in nuclear engineering degrees between 1978 and 1988 at all degree levels, the numbers are so small for all other subgroups as to render interpretation meaningless. The data do show that members of non- White subgroups are not rushing to fill nuclear engineering educational programs (Table F-14~. l To interpret these data, the total degree production rate for each subgroup is needed. For example, has the B.A./B.S. degree attainment rate per 1,000 American Indian college-age youth increased in this decade? Since the Hispanic and Asian subgroups have experienced substantial in-migration during this decade and U.S. decennial census data are almost 10 years old, we have no accurate measure of the size of Hispanic and Asian college-age cohorts. However, White cohorts are declining in size, American Indian cohorts are relatively stable, and the cohorts of all other subgroups are increasing, especially the Hispanic and Asian. The White degree decline can be partly attributed to this group's declining numbers, but the Black decline indicates a declining degree production rate. The American Indian degree increases--although the absolute numbers are small--could be attributable to an increased degree production rate. The Hispanic and Asian degree increases should be at least partly attributable to increases in the college-age population base; however, data gaps make it difficult to separate the contributions of increases in degree production rates and increased cohort sizes to increases in total degrees.
63 TABLE 5-4 Engineering Degrees Granted by Degree Level and Race and Ethnicity, 1978 and 1988a Subgroup B.S. M.S. Percent Percent 1978 1988 Change 1978 1988 Change 1978 . White, Non Hispanics Black, Non Hispanics Hispanics American Indians Asians 39,79955,193 38.7 8942,211 147.3 1,0722,441 127.7 37187 405.4 1,1955,591 367.9 a Data exclude nonresident aliens. 11,77715,700 33.3 1,481 199364 82.9 239475 98.7 432 700.0 7841,767 125.4 SOURCES: Engineering Manpower Commission (1979-1989~. Summary Ph.D. Percent 1988 Change 2,195 48.2 15 25 3 175 2993.3 3644.0 30 27557.1 Table 5-5 summarizes degree trends for different subgroups, including U.S. residents, men, women, and different racial and ethnic groups. This table tells a striking story. Trends in nuclear engineering degrees are negative for most groups at all degree levels, especially if nonresident aliens are excluded. Trends in total degrees are negative or only weakly positive. However, the trends for quantitative degrees and for engineering degrees are strongly positive for virtually all groups at all degree levels. Even if only U.S. resident degrees are considered, the growth in quantitative and engineering degrees between 1977 and 1987 far outstrips any loss in nuclear engineering degrees during this period. Nevertheless, if positive trends in the number of quantitative and engineering degrees continue, it cannot be assumed that future shortfalls in nuclear engineering can be--or should be--met by recruiting students from other quantitative fields. Even relative to the demand for quantitative degrees, the increase in the number of quantitative degrees awarded may constitute a shortfall. In this case, shifting students from other quantitative fields to nuclear engineering amounts to robbing Peter to pay Paul. It is also not known if special incentives will be needed to attract students to nuclear engineering, or whether standard incentives, such as market wage increases, will suffice.
64 TABLE 5-5 Summary of Degree Trends for Subgroups, 1977-1978 compared to 1987-1988 Nuclear Quantitative Engineering Engineering Total Degrees Degrees Degrees Degrees Subgroup B.S. M.S. Ph.D. B.S. M.S. Ph.D. B.S. M.S. Ph.D. B.S. M.S. Ph.D. Total + - -~ + + + + + + U.S. Residents + - - + + ~~ + + + - - - Non-Res. Aliens + + + + + + + + + + Men - - + + + + + + - - - ~ Women + ~~ + + + + + + + + + ~ Whites + - - + + - + + + - - - Blacks - - - + + - + + + I Hispanics + + + + + + + + + Amer. Indians + + + + + - + + Asians + + + + + + + + + + = positive trend - = negative trend -~ = stable trend Numbers too small to be meaningful TRENDS IN SCHOLASTIC APTITUDE TEST SCORES Trends in earned quantitative and engineering degrees are one way to define a potential pool of nuclear engineers. A much broader definition is to determine the share of college graduates who had the verbal and mathematical abilities at college or graduate school entry to successfully complete a nuclear engineering program. In the committee's survey of nuclear engineering degree programs, respondents specified the minimum Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT) mathematical and verbal scores that they had found students needed to successfully complete the
65 nuclear engineering B.S. program. Although responses varied, their range of variation was not large. These scores can be used to define the proportion of the SAT test group that could successfully complete a B.S. degree in nuclear engineering. This proportion represents a potential pool. Note that the lowest SAT mathematics and verbal scores that nuclear engineering departments listed are used, a score of 550 in mathematics and a verbal score of 450. The proportion of SAT test-takers who have achieved both minimum scores cannot be identified, but data show the following (see Tables F-15 and F-16~: o The proportions of the SAT test group that met the verbal and mathematics minimums were stable from 1983 to 1988, for male and female, and for the various racial and ethnic groups. o In 1988, about 30 percent met the minimum mathematics score, about 40 percent the minimum verbal score. For 1988, the "yield" was over 300,000 individuals who met the minimum quantitative requirement and almost half a million individuals who met the minimum verbal requirement. o The percent that met mathematical and verbal minimums varied by gender, especially the mathematics minimum. In 1988 only about 23 percent of the female, but 37 percent of the male, SAT group met the mathematical minimum. Forty percent of the women and 45 percent of the men met the verbal ~ e mlulmum . O The proportion that met mathematical and verbal minimums varied substantially by race and ethnicity. In 1988, 32 percent of the non-Hispanic whites met the mathematical minimum and 48 percent the verbal minimum. Asian Americans roughly reversed the white pattern: 45 percent met the mathematical minimum and 38 percent the verbal minimum. Non-Hispanic Blacks had the weakest performance: in 1988 only 8 percent met the mathematics minimum and 17 percent the verbal minimum. Puerto Rican SAT test-takers did only slightly better than Blacks; other non-Asian minorities performed somewhat better than Puerto Ricans, but not strongly. Survey respondents often did not identify Graduate Record Examination (ORE) score minimums for expected nuclear engineering graduate program success. However, for whatever these data are worth, the average GRE verbal and mathematics scores of engineering B.S. graduates taking the GRE might indicate likely success in completing a master's degree or doctorate in nuclear engineering. In 1986-1987 the average mathematics score of all engineering B.S.- degreed GRE test-takers was 680, their average verbal score, 518. Using a cutoff score of 500 for the minimum verbal score and 650 for the minimum quantitative score, of all 1986-1987 GRE test-takers, slightly more than one- fifth met the quantitative criterion and more than half met the verbal criterion. Again, there is substantial variation in test scores by race and ethnicity, for example, 42 percent of Asian, 23 percent of White, and 4
66 percent of Black GRE test-takers met the quantitative score criterion (See Table F-17~. PROJECTIONS OF THE SIZE, RACIAL AND ETHNIC COMPOSITION, AND HIGHER EDUCATION COMPLETION RATES OF YOUTH COHORTS The size of the college-age cohort (14 to 34 years of age) will shrink in the next two decades, and its composition will become less White and more Black, Hispanic, and Asian. A major question about these demographic trends is their implication for college and graduate degree completion. The total U.S. population is projected to steadily increase in absolute size between 1990 and 2010, but the 14- to 34-year-old age group is expected to decline in absolute size over this period. In 1980 those 14 to 34 years old were 37 percent of the total U.S. population; for 2010 this figure is projected to drop to 28 percent. Although the size of the college-age group is expected to begin to increase between 2000 and 2010, it will still be below the 1990 level in 2010 (see Table F-18 and Figure F-1~. These smaller college-age cohorts are also projected to change in racial and ethnic composition: (1) declining ire White college-age cohorts from about three of every four 14 to 34 years old in 1980, to about two of three in 2010; (2) increasing in Black college-age cohorts from about one of eight in 1980, to about one of six in 2010; (3) increasing in Hispanic college-age cohorts from about one of fourteen in 1980, to about one of eight in 2010; and (4) increasing slightly in other races, including Asians, between 1980 and 2010 (see Table F-19~. Changes in cohort sizes and racial and ethnic composition matter only to the extent that they affect cohort degree production rates and field choices. A study that projects the number of B.A. and M.A./Ph.D. degrees for 1995 and 2005 indicates virtually no change between 1984, 1995, and 2005 in either B.A. or M.A./Ph.D. production rates. For example, in 1984 the 18- to 34-year old cohort had a B.A. production rate of 12.1 percent; for 1995 and 2005 this age group is projected to have B.A. production rates of 12.1 and 11.3 percent respectively. Thus, changes in cohort size, not in racial and ethnic com- position, are projected to have the greatest effect. Since the 2005 college- age cohort is projected to be only 90 percent the size of the 1984 cohort, even at a constant rate of degree production, this future cohort will achieve smaller numbers of degrees (see Tables F-18 to F-20~. These data indicate the effects of changes in racial and ethnic composition on quantitative-degree production rates. If While quantitative- degree production rates are used as the baseline for estimating the quantitative field effects of population shifts toward minorities, the higher Asian production rates more than compensate for the lower rates of Blacks and American Indians at all degree levels. For example, the 14.1-percent
67 production rate of quantitative bachelor's degrees for Whites can be used to assess the effect of lower rates for Blacks and American Indians. The 31.3- percent rate for Asians creates 5,610 more B.S. quantitative degrees than would be expected from the White rate, a number that more than compensates for the lower Black and American Indian rates, relative to the number of degrees that would have been expected using the White rate, which would yield 1,103 B.S. quantitative degrees. The 1987 numbers suggest that population shifts away from Whites and toward minorities may have few effects--may in fact have numerically positive effects--on the production of quantitative degrees. BALANCE BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND There are a number of considerations and uncertainties in making supply and demand projections for nuclear engineering: 1. Market forces tend to correct for supply shortages if market signals are clear and consistent (e.g., increasing wages for nuclear engineers and an increasingly positive view in the United States of nuclear energy as an energy supply option). Corrections do take time, not a great amount in the case of the B.S. degree, because undergraduates can readily shift majors, but longer for the production of M.S. and Ph.D. nuclear engineers. Market forces alone can probably attract additional students up to the capacity of the educational institutions. However, market forces cannot, in the near term, expand institutional capacity. As this capacity declines, the ability of market forces to compensate also declines. 2. Over the next 20 years, the total demand for quantitative degrees, especially in engineering, may be high, and there may be significant shortages of scientists and engineers. If predicted shortages develop in other engineering fields, the market forces needed to enhance nuclear engineering enrollments will have to be greater. 3. Standard ways to meet shortages, for example, by using foreign engineers or retraining engineers from other fields abroad have limited utility for nuclear engineering. The requirement for security clearances in many nuclear engineering jobs reduces the ability of employers to draw an increasingly international supply of professional labor. Additionally, the reemergence of nuclear power as a U.S. energy supply option may require a higher percentage of uniquely trained and fully accredited degreed nuclear engineers. Also, the countries from which these nuclear engineers might come could have their own increasing demand for this engineering pool. 4. Because of the need for security clearances and citizenship for many both government and industry, concerns about the supply are greater because of the decline in percent and numbers nuclear engineers in of nuclear engineers
68 of M.S. and Ph.D. degrees in the field being awarded to U.S. citizens. The large portion of the graduate student population that does not contain U.S. citizens has the potential of meeting future U.S. demand for nuclear engineering graduates by contributing to the supply of potential employees for non-sensitive jobs in the utility industry and in the nuclear equipment manufacturing sector. To the extent that these graduates can fill some of these positions, and are permanent residents or have a "green card," future demand in sensitive areas will have a better chance of being met by recruiting from the available U.S. citizen graduate pool. There are relatively few non- U.S. citizen graduates in nuclear engineering from foreign institutions that enter the U.S. work force without taking at least one degree from a U.S. institution. Thus, the potential for non-U.S. citizen degree holders is largely for the student who receives nuclear engineering training from U.S. institutions. 5. The projected decline and changes in composition of the college-age population could limit the number of degrees awarded in quantitative fields, leading to intense competition for qualified students. However, the trends in quantitative degrees are positive for all segments, and there is evidence that greater numbers of women and minorities are achieving these degrees. However, it is uncertain whether these shifts will continue, at what rate, and whether they will be enough to satisfy demand. A number of major employers informed the committee that they were encountering no difficulty in recruiting nuclear engineers with the possible exception of Ph.D.s. The committee compared starting salaries for nuclear engineers with those for engineers from other disciplines and found them to be generally comparable (Table 5-6~. Although the supply and demand of nuclear engineers is in balance as of 1989, projections indicate a shortfall in supply under all scenarios (see Chapter 3) unless significant changes are made. Figure 5-1 shows actual and projected graduates available for employment and demand, and estimates of additional students that could be educated each year without additional faculty or facilities. This analysis assumes no further decline in the supply of new graduates. While the 1988 and 1989 enrollment and degree data seem to support the view that the decline has largely stopped, it is still too early to tell. While several schools report increases and more healthy programs, several other schools are still discussing phasing out their programs. These simple projections show that for the best-estimate demand scenario, demand will exceed supply before 1995, even if the decline in capacity slows. If annual demand stays at about 400 new labor market entrants, shortages will almost certainly develop before the end of the century. If it is assumed that
69 U. o . - _' Q) s~ .,] : - .m U7 u C~ b~ .,' a, a' ..- bC L~ 3 z 5- o U. . - U] . - U u U) .,l :^ 1 U~ L~ ::: L~ z =: Z O O O O O J ax c~ u~ ~ _ _ _ _ ~o ~ c~ ~ r~ C~ C~ ~ ~ ~ O O O O O u~ ~1 C~ ~ O U~, - ~ _ _ _ _ . ~D O ~ ~ oO C~ ~ ~ ~ ~ O O O O O ~) oo ~ o U~ oo _ _ _ _ _ 0 c~ ~ ~ r~ ~J ~ ;t J ~ O O O O O O U~ ~ U~ _____ C~ kD ~ a~ oo O O O O O O ~ O O O O C~ ~ ~ ~ o ~ C~ C~ ~ ~ ~ o~ ~ ~ U~ oo ~ o C~ oo C~ oo ___________ u~ ~ ~ u~ r~ oo ~ ~ C~ ~ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 O O O O O O O O O ~ ~ CX:) U~ ~J ~ oo ________ ~ ~ ~o ~ oo O ~ C~ C~ C~ C~ C~ C~ ~ ~ ~ O O O O C~ O O O r- J r~ a~ ~ ~ u~ 0 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 0 c~ ~ ~ a~ ~ c~ C~ C~ C~ C~ C~ ~ ~ ~ O O O O O O O O O 0 0 0 cn In o:) c~ u~ r~ u~ a~ oo c~ ;t oO O _________ O C~ ~ ~ ~ O ~ C~ C~ C~ C~ C~ C~ ~ ~ ~ ~ O O O O O O O O O O O c~ r- r- 0 ~ ·~ co 0 ~ ~ c~ ~ ~ ~ ~ c~ ~ ~ O ___________ CS, ~ ;t ~ ~ C~ O C~ C~ C~ C~ C~ C~ O O O O O O O O O O ~i ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~J ~ U~ O ~ ~ ~ C~ ~ O _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ oo ~ C~ ~ C~ C~ C~ C~ ~ C~ C~ C~ C~ O O O O O O O O O O O J ~ =) r~ o O r~ ~ c~ c~ u~ r- tn U~ J ~ ~ ~ ~o ___________ co 0 c~ J u~ cO =) ~ O ~ C~ C~ C~ C~ C~ C~ C~ ~ C~ O O O O O O O O O O O J ;t ~ ~ ~ ~ C~ ~ oo ~ ~ U~ ___________ 0 c~ ~ u~ ~ ~ ~ ~ a~ 0 ~ C~ C~ C~ C~ C~ C~ C~ C~ C~ O O O O O O O O O O O ~ C~ ~ C~ O O oo O ~ ~ a~ ~ ~ r~ u~ r~ ___________ O c~ J ~ ~ cO a: c~ c~ c~ c~ c~ c~ c~ c~ c~ ~ 0 ~ c~ ~ J u~ ~ r~ co ax oo oo oo oo ~ oo oo ;x~ oo oo a ~ a~ u, . - bC - X C: O O u~ ~ _ _ ~ ~D . _ v, a) . - bC a O O O O O _ c~ c~ ~ u O O ~ O ~D a' O C~ _ _ _ J u~ c~ ._ u, 5- ~u c~ .,1 £ m- ._1 ~O S~ '- ~d a' .,4 ~0 c: O o ~^ b0 . - I a' . - o O _! c Vl . - 1 o o u ~0 a o C: c/:
70 1400 _ 1 200 ~ 5 1 000 _ 800 C} Jobs i IVY 600 400 200 Grads ~ \ jet/ - ,~ -~ r ~7~ ~History O l 1981 1985 1989 1995 YEAR ~0 Best Estimate / ~':/~/~/~ Range of Decline in Capacity 1 2000 2005 2010 FIGURE 5-1 Supply and demand projections for new graduate nuclear engineers in the U.S. civilian labor force (see Table 5-7 for background). 20 percent of the jobs can be filled by graduates with degrees in physics or other fields of engineering, shortages might not develop until the year 2000 but they will eventually develop unless changes occur. FINDINGS Committee findings regarding the future supply of nuclear engineers include the following: o Current U.S. replacement needs for those with B.S., M.S., and doctorate degrees in nuclear engineering are about 400 new labor market entrants annually. This demand roughly balances the current output of the educational system. O Although the number of degrees awarded in quantitative fields between 1978 and 1988 increased at all degree levels, the number awarded annually in
71 TABLE 5-7 Calculations on which Employment Data in Figure 5-1 are Based Three-Year Annual Rate Estimated Job Reported Survey Moving (growth + re- Openings for Year Employment Average placement = sum} New Graduates 1977 7,450 n.a. 1981 8,080 8,480 800 1983 9,920 9,443 1985 10,330 10,630 1987 11,640 11,203 1989 11,640a 11,640 1990 a Estimated. 496 + 314 = 810 287 + 382 = 669 11,640a 11,640 0 + 407 = 407 675 425 nuclear engineering decreased at the B.S. and M.S. levels and remained relatively stable at the Ph.D. level. For U.S. residents, nuclear engineering degrees decreased at all levels. If current demand trends continue, a shortfall in supply will occur and grow with time. o The potential for increased demand is greater than the potential for increased supply, owing primarily to decreasing student populations. Significant shortages in nuclear engineers may be observed as early as the mid-1990s. o Between 1977 and 1987, the absolute numbers and shares of total engineering and nuclear engineering degrees earned by women increased. The data also show small but positive structural shifts in women's field choices towards quantitative fields. 0 Between 1977 and 1987 quantitative degrees earned by minorities increased and there are also shifts in their field choices toward quantitative fields. These trends present an opportunity to attract more minority candidates to nuclear engineering. The fact that an increasing proportion of the college-age cohort will consist of minorities makes such a strategy almost a necessity. o Between 1977 and 1987 trends for quantitative degrees and for engineering degrees are strongly positive for virtually all groups at all degree levels. For U.S. residents, this growth outstrips any loss in nuclear engineering degrees. However, it cannot be assumed that any increased demand
72 for nuclear engineers will be met by attracting students from these other quantitative fields, because the demand from many other quarters for these quantitative degrees is also expected to rise. o Simple projections show that for the best-estimate demand scenario, demand will exceed supply before 1995, even if the decline in capacity slows If annual demand for nuclear engineers stays at about 400, new labor market entrants shortages will almost certainly develop before the year 2000.