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53 C H A P T E R 1 0 The objective of ACRP Project 03-28 is to measure the eco- nomic impact of U.S. public use airports and the national airport system (âairportsâ) in the national economy. It can be used to educate communities and aviation stakeholders on the national value of airports. The four approaches used are complementary in under- standing the economic importance of airports to the national economy. The standard approach of estimating the impact of airports through a tabulation of on-airport and visitor spend- ing activities is a snapshot of the economic contribution of airports at a given moment based on when data are collected.39 The three catalytic MFP/consumer surplus approaches account for how national economic impacts of airports will change if connectivity between airports and regions, air cargo ton- nage (not including modal substitution), and/or the cost of air travel change. 10.1 Static Economic Impact Analysis The national direct economic impact of airports, estimated using national data sets, accounts for $637 billion of direct output, which includes $247 billion of value added and sup- ports 2.2 million direct jobs. Including multiplier effects (direct and induced impacts), the contribution of U.S. airports to the national economy totals $1.6 trillion in output (business sales), almost $800 billion in value added, and 7.6 million jobs. Over- all, U.S. airports account for 5.1% of the national GDP and 4.3% of the national job base. These impacts were partly validated by the regression analy- sis developed from the NPIAS database and airport economic impact studies that were reviewed. On-airport direct eco- nomic output is estimated at $198 billion (in 2010 dollars) across the NPIAS airports from the four regression models, which is similar to the $195 billion (in 2010 dollars) on-airport direct output that is calculated by aggregating national data- bases (excluding international visitor spending and interna- tional cargo contributions). Moreover, the total contributions to U.S. GDP from on-airport activities (including indirect and induced effects) are estimated at $242 million from the national data sets and $261 million from the regression analysis. These impacts are also in line with recent national studies conducted by public agencies and private organizations (see Table 32). It is important to note that each study addressed different aspects of the economic impacts of aviation. This study is the only analysis that is limited to the economic effects of U.S. public airports on the national economy. Other national studies include aircraft and parts manufacturing, and effects of domestic air cargo and domestic visitor spend- ing, all of which were explicitly not counted in this study. In addition to quantifying the current economic impact of U.S. airports, the research team investigated how changes in airports will affect the U.S. economy. Specifically, research was conducted on U.S. productivity if air connectivity fac- tors change among domestic airports or between domestic and international airports (MFP); the interrelationships of economic productivity and air cargo (MFP); and economic impacts triggered by changes in airline ticket prices (consumer surplus). 10.2 Catalytic Role of Airports The MFP research has generated a useful start and iden- tified the relative importance of different connectivity vari- ables. It has also shown how the importance of the variables differ across industries. However, the sample used was limited to 20 MSAs and to 11 industries and to four discrete analysis years (1995, 2000, 2005, and 2010). Given the aggregation to major industry sectors, the estimated elasticities should be seen as representative and are not constant among all indus- tries within each sector. The results present a first step in understanding how changes in air service connectivity influ- ence productivity in different sectors of the economy. How- ever, more work is needed to refine and extend these results Conclusions
54 using a more complete set of time series data covering the intermediate years. This will more fully account for temporal trends in other factors that may have influenced productivity, and could also include a finer disaggregation of industries within each sector to test the robustness of the results. These catalytic impacts should be seen as first steps that have yielded initial estimates. It is important to emphasize that the investigations conducted as part of this research are initial steps in understanding how changes at airports could generate national productivity effects, measured by industry or in aggregate. More work is needed using a larger set of data to test the robustness of the results. In particular, the explo- ration into the MFP effects for U.S. airports demonstrates that the network of airports and air cargo services stimulate robust economic impacts throughout the nation and signif- icantly add to national productivity, with less pronounced Study Metric Direct Total Notes ACIâNA 2013 Jobs 5,305,350 9,596,340 Includes local/regional and national visitor spending impacts Payroll $167.6 $357.9 Value Added Output $496.8 $1,135.2 Global Insight 2002 Jobs 4,234,000 11,248,000 Includes aircraft and parts manufacturing Payroll Value Added $343.4 $903.5 Output FAA 2012 Jobs 11,790,000 Includes aircraft and parts manufacturing, and domestic and international cargo & visitor spending Payroll $459.4 Value Added $847.1 Output $1,533.8 ACRP Project 02-28 2011-2012 Jobs 2,172,200 7,628,900 Limited to contributions to the national economy Payroll $147.6 $452.5 Value Added $247.4 $768.4 Output $637.4 $1,597.5 Table 32. Comparison of economic impacts to those of other national level studies (dollars in millions). impacts from similar changes in consumer surplus accumu- lated by personal travelers. Impacts to the national economy that are reported by the research team are based on presumed changes in connectivity, cargo tonnage, and airfare pricing. Different assumptions will lead to different results. However, these are not linear measures. So, a 5% connectivity improve- ment on a given connectivity variable, air tonnage moved, or airfare price reduction will not lead to precisely five times the impacts demonstrated in this report. Different assumptions could be made for each of the various significant connectivity variables. Similarly, future research in cargo effects could strat- ify tonnage by type of airport (e.g., different primary and GA airports) or cross tabulate with type of cargo service (e.g., belly cargo, integrators, and other cargo-only aircraft). Moreover, decreases in connectivity, air tonnage, and increased airfares will lead to negative effects in the U.S. economy.
