Hazardous Materials Transportation Risk Assessment: State of the Practice (2013)

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5 S e c t i o n 2 2.1 Literature Review The first task undertaken for the project was to understand the risk landscape for hazardous materials transportation through a review of relevant literature. 2.1.1 Identification As this is a ‘state of the practice’ research project, the lit- erature review initially focused on documents published since 2005 identified via online searches of transportation databases, including: the Transportation Research Information Service (TRIS),1 the Transportation Research Board (TRB) Research in Progress (RIP) Database,2 the Transportation Libraries Catalog (TLCat),3 the National Technical Information Service (NTIS) Database,4 and the International Transport Docu- mentation Database (ITRD).5 Open-source internet searches were also conducted using Google, Bing, and Google Scholar. These databases and websites were then searched using the following terms: • Hazardous Materials • Dangerous Goods • Risk and – Safety – Security – Assessment – Methodology – Analysis • Vulnerability and – Assessment – Methodology – Analysis • Threat and – Assessment – Methodology – Analysis • Consequence and – Assessment – Methodology – Analysis Bibliographic information, including title, sub-title, author(s), publisher, date, and abstract, was collected from the discovered documents and then compared to pare down documents that included the same subject and author and similar abstracts. It was found that data and information in guides and articles is often updated or used for further analy- sis in later papers. Thus, the literature was refined to focus on the most current and robust documents across subjects. While relevant literature was identified through open- source searches, the literature search was not limited to freely accessible documents. Various documents were obtained through online purchases, already owned journals, and local brick-and-mortar research libraries. To fill in potential gaps, the online search was augmented with documents identified by exploring the citations from other lit- erature, subject-matter expert elicitation, suggestions by inter- viewees and project panelists, and research during interview preparation. As a result, the literature review was a continuous process designed to capture documents crucial to understand- ing how the transportation industry, especially the hazardous materials sector, assesses and uses risk to make decisions. 2.1.2 Compilation Once a copy of the identified document was obtained, the document was read and reviewed, and information in the doc- ument was entered into a template with the following fields: • Title, • Author(s), Description of the Research Approach 1 Available via http://tris.trb.org/ 2 Available via http://rip.trb.org/ 3 Available via http://ntl.bts.gov/cgi-bin/fs.scr 4 Available via http://www.ntis.gov/search/index.asp? 5 Available via http://www.itrd.org/

6the interview efforts of these two projects together. The list includes organizations identified by the HMCRP-Project 10 panel, in the HMCRP Project 12 solicitation, those added by the project team and enumerated in the project’s working plan, and others suggested by the HMCRP Project 12 panel at the interim project meeting. Some additional organizations were identified through the interview process or by • Conducting an Internet search for organizations conduct- ing relevant risk assessments, • Conducting an Internet search for completed risk- assessment research projects, • Reviewing the HMCRP and other cooperative research program websites to identify organizations performing work that relates to risk assessment of hazardous materials transportation, and • Reviewing the TRB Research Needs Database for organiza- tions performing relevant work. An additional step included a conference call with the HMCRP Project 10 panel, which generated some additional organizations and contacts. One or more representatives of each organization were identified through research by the project team and consul- tation with the project panel. After identifying relevant organizations and their represen- tatives, an interview template was created to address specific questions of this project (Appendix D). Questions were meant to guide the discussion and while the project team captured direct responses to particular questions, it recorded general thoughts and ideas that the organizational representatives had about risk assessment and its use in hazmat transportation. Because the project team was also conducting hazmat trans- portation research related to HMCRP Project 10, the inter- view template was developed to serve both projects. Several professional associations were interviewed and many suggested interviewing their membership directly. An online survey was designed to collect responses from these organizations. An invitation to participate in the survey (see Appendix E) was distributed to the Hazmat Transportation Research Committee of the TRB’s distribution list and the specific associations that offered to distribute it. This survey can be found in Appendix F. Specific questions were geared towards the responding organization’s practice of hazmat risk assessment. Contact information for these organizations was collected from the survey, and the project team followed- up with organizations, as appropriate. Responses from the interviews and surveys were recorded in a standard template and analyzed by the project team. In cases where sufficient information was collected from the survey and subsequent follow-up discussions, the responses have been included in Sections 3 and 4. • Publication year, • Journal or source, • Modes addressed, • Categorization of risk theme (data improvement or identi- fication, risk methodology, risk assessment, etc.), • Geographic domain, • Hazardous material area (substance or category), and • Risk components addressed (probability, frequency, threat, vulnerability, and consequence). Not all documents in the literature review contained data for all of these categories; however, the data gathered, along with brief summaries for each document, did allow the doc- uments to be analyzed and categorized into four common themes: 1. New modeling techniques and approaches, 2. Data-driven risk assessment, 3. Use of risk analysis and route choice, and 4. Economic risk analysis. Documents were categorized under the “New Modeling Techniques and Approaches” if they critiqued current risk models or practices, described new methods for calculating risk, or discussed the theory of risk assessments. The docu- ments grouped under “data-driven risk assessment” focused on new data sets, improvements in collecting data, and new mathematical methods for calculating risk. The third cate- gory involved documents that went beyond risk methodol- ogy by specifically discussing route choice decision making. The final literature review category was for documents that centered on quantifying risk components, particularly consequence-related economic values. Once categorized, the key documents were summarized to highlight their contributions to hazardous material transpor- tation risk assessments. Additionally, other articles found in the literature review were added to the end of a section to provide interested parties with further references. 2.2 Interview and Online Survey Procedures The project team identified the organizations listed in Appendix B as potentially conducting hazardous materials- related risk assessments or risk assessment research. This list was initiated from a similar list prepared for a related HMCRP Project HM-10, “Current Hazardous Materials Transporta- tion Research and Future Needs.” In many cases, the appro- priate individuals for hazmat transportation research were also the most knowledgeable about their organization’s involvement with the development or use of hazmat trans- portation risk assessments—making it efficient to connect