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81.1 Purpose of This Guidebook Air traffic forecasts are an essential tool in airport plan- ning and financing decisions. However, in recent years the ability of traditional forecast techniques to produce reli- able estimates has come into question. There are numerous examples of situations where unforeseen events and devel- opments have had a significant effect on the realization of airport development plans. Many parameters essential for preparation of air traffic forecasts (such as economic growth, fuel costs, and airline yields) have recently become more volatile. For example, the extreme fuel price increases experienced in 2008 led some air carriers to cut air service. This fuel price increase was followed by a severe recession in 2008/09, which in turn put additional pressure on air- line yields, traffic levels, and air carrier viability. In addi- tion, concerns about shock events (e.g., terrorism, health pandemics, natural disasters) have magnified the degree of uncertainty involved in producing reliable air traffic forecasts. The traditional approach to incorporating uncertainty into air traffic forecasting has been to supplement the base- case forecasts with high and low forecasts. This method pro- vides a rough range of likely outcomes and is intended to convey that there is uncertainty in the forecast. However, this approach offers only a cursory understanding of the airportâs risk profile and provides no detail on the likelihood and mag- nitude of the various risk factors in terms of their impact on future traffic development. The purpose of this guidebook is to provide a methodol- ogy to assist airport management when making decisions in the face of an uncertain traffic outlook. The guide- book offers tools for improving the understanding of risk and uncertainty in the forecasting process and provides approaches for enhancing the robustness of airport plan- ning and decision making. 1.2 How to Use This Guidebook The guidebook is structured to be accessible to a wide range of users. The summary at the start of this document provides an overview of the issues and methodology, while the main body of the report provides an expanded discussion of the issues and detailed guidance on the use of the method- ology, including illustrations of its application using two case studies. Appendices at the end provide significantly more in-depth information on some of the materials reviewed to develop the methodology, as well as the analytical techniques outlined in the guidebook. The guidebook is organized into three main parts, plus a concluding section: Part I, following this chapter, provides a primer on risk and uncertainty in future airport activity, including: ⢠The nature of the risks and uncertainties facing airports; ⢠Examples of airports that have been significantly affected by unexpected events, both positive and negative; ⢠An overview of existing methodologies for incorporating uncertainty into the demand forecasting process; and ⢠Existing approaches for addressing uncertainty in the air- port decision-making process. Key Takeaways text boxes at the beginning of sections in Part I summarize the key points of that section. Readers who do not require extensive background information can review these points to advance more quickly through the guidebook. Part II outlines the systems analysis methodology, which can assist airport planners in: ⢠Identifying and characterizing risks (threats or opportuni- ties), including their plausibility and magnitude; ⢠Assessing the impact of these threats and opportunities (i.e., determining what can happen, to what airport or sector, and when these events are most likely to occur); and C h a p t e r 1 Introduction
9 ⢠Developing response and mitigation strategies to avoid or lessen the impact of threats or to foster the realization of opportunities. The methodology is general enough to be used by a wide range of airports, regardless of size, traffic mix, and market conditions. It has been designed to allow users to consider a broad range of events and risks and help them anticipate possible changes that may follow. Part III illustrates the methodology by applying it to two case studies: a small regional airport and a large hub airport, each facing different market conditions and eco- nomic circumstances. Part IV provides general conclusions derived from this research and suggests potential areas for further research. It is not necessary for the reader to review the entire guide- book to understand the methodology put forward. Some users may prefer to skip the primer in Part I and start with the methodology in Part II, referring back to Part I for back- ground material as needed. 1.3 How the Research Was Conducted The project began with an extensive review of materials and intelligence on a number of areas related to this project. The research covered the following: ⢠Current procedures for incorporating uncertainty into avia- tion demand forecasting. This investigation was based pri- marily on a review of industry publications and scholarly journal articles, but also leveraged the collective knowl- edge and experience of the project team in the treatment of uncertainty. ⢠Current industry best practices for recognizing and accom- modating unforeseen events and developments in plans that rely on airport activity level forecasts. The research involved both a literature review and interviews with leading researchers and practitioners in the airport planning field. ⢠Previous instances where unforeseen events or changing conditions, not accounted for in the original forecasts, had a significant impact on airports, either positive or negative. Research was conducted on selected airports using a com- bination of literature reviews and interviews. The key findings from this research are presented in the main portion of this guidebook, with additional supporting data provided in the appendices. Drawing on all the research conducted, a systems analysis methodology was devised that aided in the identification, quan- tification, and management of risk and uncertainty. The frame- work and details of the methodology were tested and refined through application to two case studies of previous instances of unexpected events and conditions affecting airports. The two airports selected were Bellingham International Airport and Baltimore/Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport. Both had been substantially affected by unexpected events, and each had different characteristics in terms of size, market conditions, and economic circumstances. The application of the systems analysis methodology to the case studies was conducted by the ACRP 03-22 project team, and draft versions of the results were provided to the management of the two airports. The feedback received from the airport management was incorporated into the final case studies as presented in this guidebook. 1.4 Related Materials Although this guidebook focuses on uncertainty in future airport activity, it touches on many other aspects of airport management and planning, including the forecasting of air- port activity, the master planning and strategic planning of airports, the use of air service development, revenue diver- sification, and jet fuel price volatility. While this guidebook functions as a stand-alone document, the following ACRP publications are available on the Transportation Research Board website at www.trb.org for readers interested in these related topics: ⢠ACRP Synthesis 2: Airport Aviation Activity Forecasting, ⢠ACRP Report 20: Strategic Planning in the Airport Industry, ⢠ACRP Report 25: Airport Passenger Terminal Planning and Design, ⢠ACRP Report 18: Passenger Air Service Development Techniques, ⢠ACRP Synthesis 19: Airport Revenue Diversification, and ⢠ACRP Report 48: Impact of Jet Fuel Price Uncertainty on Airport Planning and Development.
