Below is the uncorrected machine-read text of this chapter, intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text of each book. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.
111 Andreoni, A. and M. N. Postorino, âA Multivariate ARIMA Model to Forecast Air Transport Demand,â Association for European Transport and Contributors (2006). Armstrong, S. J. and M. C. Grohman, âA Comparative Study of Meth- ods for Long-Range Market Forecasting.â Management Science, Vol. 19, Issue 2 (1972). Baden, W., G. Foster, D. Millner, and G. Solomos, âAn Approach to Incorporating Demand Uncertainty in NAS-Wide Modeling,â The MITRE Corporation (2007). Belin S. C. and R. de Neufville, âAirport Passenger Buildings: Efficiency Through Shared Use of Facilities.â ASCE Journal of Transportation Engineering, Vol. 128, No. 3 (2002), pp. 211â217. Bhadra, D. and R. Schaufele, âProbabilistic Forecasts for Aviation Traf- fic at FAAâs Commercial Terminals: Suggested Methodology and Example.â Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transpor- tation Research Board, No. 2007, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, D.C. (2007), pp. 37â46. Bodde, D. L. and D. L. Lewis, âUnderstanding Political Risk in Invest- ment Planning: An Analysis of National Airspace System Plan.â Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, Vol. 3, No. 4 (1984), pp. 554â560. Bonabeau, E., âAugmented Paranoia.â Part of Anticipating Rare Events: Can Acts of Terror, Use of Weapons of Mass Destruction or Other High Profile Acts Be Anticipated? A Scientific Perspective on Prob- lems, Pitfalls and Prospective Solutions, Office of the Secretary of Defense White Paper, (November 2008). Bongaarts, J. and R. A. Bulatao (editors), Beyond Six Billion: Forecast- ing the Worldâs Population, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. (2000). Bonnefoy, P. A. and R. J. Hansman, âEmergence of Secondary Airports and Dynamics of Regional Airport Systems in the United States,â Report No. ICAT-2005-02, MIT International Center for Air Trans- portation (2005). BRU, âSatellite Gets New Life as Office Environment.â Brussels Airport News (2009). http://www.brusselsairport.be/en/news/newsItems/ 343625. (Accessed November 24, 2010). Bureau of Transportation Statistics, U.S. Air Carrier Traffic Statistics, Revenue Passenger Enplanements (2011). http://www.bts.gov/ xml/air_traffic/src/index.xml. (Accessed on April 9, 2011). Burghouwt, G., Airline Network Development in Europe and its Implica- tions for Airport Planning, Ashgate Publishing Company, Burling- ton, Vermont (2007). Butts, G. and K. Linton, âThe Joint Confidence Paradox: A History of Denial,â Presentation Paper, NASA Cost Symposium (2009). Chambers, R. D., âTackling Uncertainty in Airport Design: A Real Options Approach,â Master of Science Thesis, MIT Technology and Policy Program, Cambridge, MA (2007). Coffman Associates, Inc., Roberts Field Redmond Municipal Airport Master Plan: Final Technical Report, Redmond, Oregon (2005). Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, Airport Development Plan Update (1997). De Neufville, R., âUncertainty Management for Engineering Systems Planning and Design,â Monograph draft for Engineering Systems Division (2004). De Neufville, R. and J. Barber, âDeregulation Induced Volatility of Airport Traffic.â Transportation Planning and Technology, 16(2) (1991), pp. 117â128. De Neufville, R. and M. A. Cardin, âA Direct Interaction Approach to Identify Real Options âinâ Large-Scale Infrastructure Systems,â Real Options Conference (2009). De Neufville, R. and A. Odoni, Airport Systems: Planning, Design, and Management, McGraw-Hill, New York (2003). De Neufville, R. and S. Scholtes, Flexibility in Engineering Design, MIT Press (2011). De Neufville R., S. Scholtes, and T. Wang, âValuing Real Options by Spreadsheet, Parking Garage Case Example.â Journal of Infrastruc- ture Systems, Vol. 12, No. 3 (2006). De Neufville R. and T. Wang, âIdentification of Real Options âinâ Projects.â Proceedings, INCOSE International Symposium, Orlan- do (2006). De Neufville, R., O. de Weck, and J. Lin, âIdentifying Real Options to Improve the Design of Engineering Systems,â Working book chap- ter (2008). http://ardent.mit.edu/real_options/Real_opts_papers/ nembhard%20final%20draft.pdf.(Accessed December 15, 2010). Federal Aviation Administration, Terminal Area Forecasts Summary Fiscal Years 1998â2015, Washington, D.C. (1998). Federal Aviation Administration, Terminal Area Forecasts Summary Fiscal Years 1999â2015, Washington, D.C. (1999). Federal Aviation Administration, Terminal Area Forecasts Summary Fiscal Years 2000â2015, Washington, D.C. (2000). Federal Aviation Administration, Terminal Area Forecasts Summary Fiscal Years 2001â2015, Washington, D.C. (2001). Federal Aviation Administration, Terminal Area Forecasts Summary Fiscal Years 2002â2020, Washington, D.C. (2002). Federal Aviation Administration, Terminal Area Forecasts Summary Fiscal Years 2003â2020, Washington, D.C. (2003). Federal Aviation Administration, Terminal Area Forecasts Summary Fiscal Years 2004â2020, Washington, D.C. (2004). A p p e n d i x A References
112 Kwakkel, J., W. E. Walker, and V. Marchau, âAssessing the Efficacy of Adaptive Airport Strategic Planning: Results from Computational Experiments,â submitted to Transport Policy (2010). Kwakkel, J. H., W. E. Walker, and R. A. A. Wijnen, âThe Treatment of Uncertainty in Airport Strategic Planning: The Case of Schiphol Air- portâs Long-Term Vision,â Paper presented at the 12th Air Trans- port Research Society World Conference, Athens, Greece (2008). Lambert-St. Louis International Airport Official Website, Historical Passenger Statistics. http://www.lambert-stlouis.com/flystl/media- newsroom/stats/. (Accessed February 27, 2012). Landrum & Brown, ACRP Report 25: Airport Passenger Terminal Plan- ning and Design: Volume 1: Guidebook, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, D.C. (2010). Lea, J., âLambert Celebrates Launch of China Cargo.â Air Transport News (September, 2011). http://www.airtransportnews.aero/article. pl?id=32309. (Accessed February 22, 2012). Lewis, D. L., âThe Future of Forecasting: Risk Analysis as a Philosophy of Transportation Planning.â TR News, Issue 177 (MarchâApril, 1995), pp. 3â9. Maldonado, J., âStrategic Planning: An Approach to Improving Airport Planning under Uncertainty,â Masterâs thesis, Massachusetts Insti- tute of Technology, Cambridge, MA (1990). Martin, S. C., ACRP Report 18: Passenger Air Service Development Tech- niques, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, D.C. (2009). Maryland Department of Transportation, âA Report to the Maryland General Assembly Senate Budget and Taxation Committee and House Appropriations Committee Regarding New Internation- al Terminal at Baltimore/Washington International Airportâ (1993). Mauboussin, M. J., More Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places, Columbia University Press, New York (2006). McConnell, J., âA Life-Cycle Flexibility Framework for Designing, Evaluating and Managing Complex Real Options,â PhD Disserta- tion, MIT Engineering Systems Division, Cambridge, MA (2007). McCullough, B. D., âConsistent Forecast Intervals when the Forecast- period Exogenous Variables are Stochastic.â Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 15, Issue 4 (1996), pp. 293â304. Puget Sound Business Journal, âBellingham Airport Closes to Resur- face Runway.â Puget Sound Business Journal (August 2010). http:// www.bizjournals.com/seattle/stories/2010/08/30/daily10.html. (Accessed November 19, 2010). Ralph M. Parsons Company, Volume I: Overview of Baltimore/Washington International Airport Master Plan Update, Maryland Department of Transportation, Maryland (1987). Ricondo and Associates, Inc., Booz Allen Hamilton, Inc., George Mason University, and National Service Research, ACRP Report 20: Strategic Planning in the Airport Industry, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, D.C. (2009). Rodrigue J. P., C. Comtois, and B. Slack, The Geography of Transport Systems, New York: Routledge (2009). Rowe, G. and G. Wright, âThe Delphi Technique as a Forecasting Tool: Issues and Analysis.â International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 15 (1999), pp. 353â375. Spitz, W. and F. Berardino, ACRP Report 48: Impact of Jet Fuel Price Uncer- tainty on Airport Planning and Development, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, D.C. (2011). Spitz, W. and R. Golaszewski, ACRP Synthesis 2: Airport Aviation Activ- ity Forecasting, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, D.C. (2007). Federal Aviation Administration, Terminal Area Forecasts Summary Fiscal Years 2005â2025, Washington, D.C. (2005). Federal Aviation Administration, Terminal Area Forecasts Summary Fiscal Years 2006â2025, Washington, D.C. (2006). Federal Aviation Administration, Terminal Area Forecasts Summary Fiscal Years 2007â2025, Washington, D.C. (2007). Federal Aviation Administration, Terminal Area Forecasts Summary Fiscal Years 2008â2025, Washington, D.C. (2008). Federal Aviation Administration, Terminal Area Forecasts Summary Fiscal Years 2009â2030, Washington, D.C. (2009). Federal Aviation Administration, Terminal Area Forecasts Summary Fiscal Years 2010â2030, Washington, D.C. (2010). Federal Aviation Administration, Terminal Area Forecasts Summary Fiscal Years 2011â2040, Washington, D.C. (2011). Federal Aviation Administration, FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012â2032, Washington, D.C. (2012). Feldstein, M. S., âThe Error of Forecast in Econometric Models when the Forecast-Period Exogenous Variables are Stochastic.â Econo- metrica, Vol. 39, No. 1 (1971), pp. 55â60. Flyvbjerg, B., M. K. S. Holm, and S. L. Buhl, âHow (In)accurate Are Demand Forecasts in Public Works Projects?: The Case of Trans- portation.â Journal of the American Planning Association, Vol. 71, No. 2 (2005), pp. 131â146, Taylor & Francis, Ltd. Goodwin P. and G. Wright, âThe Limits of Forecasting Methods in Anticipating Rare Events.â Technological Forecasting & Social Change, Vol. 77, No. 3 (2010), pp. 355â368. Granger M. and M. Henrion, Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis, Cambridge University Press (1990). Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport Official Website, Operational Statistics. http://www.atlanta-airport.com/Airport/ ATL/operation_statistics.aspx. (Accessed February 27, 2012). HDR Inc., Risk Management System for the SR 520 Bridge Replace- ment and HOV Program for the Washington State Department of Transportation (2011). Hickling Corporation, Economic Analysis of Airfield Capacity Enhance- ment Strategies for Vancouver International Airport (1990). Horonjeff R., F. McKelvey, W. Sproule, and S. Young, Planning and Design of Airports, Fifth Edition, McGraw-Hill, New York (2010). International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), Airport Planning Manual, Part 1, Master Planning, Montreal, Canada (1987). International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), Manual on Air Traf- fic Forecasting, 3rd Edition (2006). Jacobs Consultancy, Memphis International Airport Master Plan Update: Final Technical Report, Memphis, Tennessee (2010). Jacobs Consultancy, Master Plan Update, Portland International Air- port: Technical Memorandum No. 2âAviation Demand Forecasts, Port of Portland (2008). Karlsson, J., âDynamic strategic planning in practice: Pease Interna- tional Tradeport.â Conference Proceedings: Aviation Management and Research Conference, Montréal, Québec: Concordia Univer- sityâs International Aviation MBA Program and International Center for Aviation Management Education and Research (2002). Kasarda J. D., âAirport Cities.â Urban Land (April 2009), pp. 56â60. Keilman, N., D. Q. Pham, and A. Hetland, âWhy Population Fore- casts Should Be ProbabilisticâIllustrated by the Case of Norway.â Demographic Research, Vol. 6, Article 15 (2002). Knight, F. H., Risk, Uncertainty and Profit, Harper Torchbooks, New York (1921). Kramer L. S., ACRP Synthesis 19: Airport Revenue Diversification, Trans- portation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, D.C. (2010).
113 Vilain, P. and T. Muhammad, âRisk Analysis for Demand Forecasts,â Halcrow Consulting Inc., Technical Memorandum (2009). Walker, W. E., âPolicy Analysis: A Systematic Approach to Supporting Policymaking in the Public Sector.â Journal of Multicriteria Deci- sion Analysis, Vol. 9 (2000), pp. 11â27. Walker, W. E., S. A. Rahman, and J. Cave, âAdaptive Policies, Policy Analysis, and Policy-Making.â European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 128 (2001), pp. 282â289. Washington Dulles International Airport Official Website, Air Traffic Statistics, http://www.mwaa.com/dulles/653.htm. (Accessed November 29, 2010). Yokum, T. J. and J. S. Armstrong, âBeyond Accuracy: Comparison of Criteria Used to Select Forecasting Methods.â International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 11, Issue 4 (1995), pp. 591â597. St. Louis Business Journal, 2009, âCommission Looks to Bring Chinese Air Freight to St. Louis.â St. Louis Business Journal (January 2009). http://www.bizjournals.com/stlouis/stories/2009/01/19/daily56. html. (Accessed February 22, 2012). Taleb, N. N., The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Random House Publishing Group, New York (2007). Trigeorgis, L., Real Options: Managerial Flexibility and Strategy in Resource Allocation, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA (1996). UK Department for Transport, UK Air Passenger Demand and CO2 Forecasts, London (2009). URS, Leibowitz & Horton AMC, and JUB Engineers, Inc., Bellingham International Airport Master Plan Update, Port of Bellingham (2004). Vancouver International Airport Authority, YVR: Your Airport 2027, 20-Year Master Plan, Vancouver (2007).