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Page 105
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A - References." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2012. Addressing Uncertainty about Future Airport Activity Levels in Airport Decision Making. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22704.
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Page 106
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A - References." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2012. Addressing Uncertainty about Future Airport Activity Levels in Airport Decision Making. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22704.
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Page 106
Page 107
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A - References." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2012. Addressing Uncertainty about Future Airport Activity Levels in Airport Decision Making. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22704.
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111 Andreoni, A. and M. N. Postorino, “A Multivariate ARIMA Model to Forecast Air Transport Demand,” Association for European Transport and Contributors (2006). Armstrong, S. J. and M. C. Grohman, “A Comparative Study of Meth- ods for Long-Range Market Forecasting.” Management Science, Vol. 19, Issue 2 (1972). Baden, W., G. Foster, D. Millner, and G. Solomos, “An Approach to Incorporating Demand Uncertainty in NAS-Wide Modeling,” The MITRE Corporation (2007). Belin S. C. and R. de Neufville, “Airport Passenger Buildings: Efficiency Through Shared Use of Facilities.” ASCE Journal of Transportation Engineering, Vol. 128, No. 3 (2002), pp. 211–217. Bhadra, D. and R. Schaufele, “Probabilistic Forecasts for Aviation Traf- fic at FAA’s Commercial Terminals: Suggested Methodology and Example.” Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transpor- tation Research Board, No. 2007, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, D.C. (2007), pp. 37–46. Bodde, D. L. and D. L. Lewis, “Understanding Political Risk in Invest- ment Planning: An Analysis of National Airspace System Plan.” Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, Vol. 3, No. 4 (1984), pp. 554–560. Bonabeau, E., “Augmented Paranoia.” Part of Anticipating Rare Events: Can Acts of Terror, Use of Weapons of Mass Destruction or Other High Profile Acts Be Anticipated? A Scientific Perspective on Prob- lems, Pitfalls and Prospective Solutions, Office of the Secretary of Defense White Paper, (November 2008). Bongaarts, J. and R. A. Bulatao (editors), Beyond Six Billion: Forecast- ing the World’s Population, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. (2000). Bonnefoy, P. A. and R. J. Hansman, “Emergence of Secondary Airports and Dynamics of Regional Airport Systems in the United States,” Report No. ICAT-2005-02, MIT International Center for Air Trans- portation (2005). BRU, “Satellite Gets New Life as Office Environment.” Brussels Airport News (2009). http://www.brusselsairport.be/en/news/newsItems/ 343625. (Accessed November 24, 2010). Bureau of Transportation Statistics, U.S. Air Carrier Traffic Statistics, Revenue Passenger Enplanements (2011). http://www.bts.gov/ xml/air_traffic/src/index.xml. (Accessed on April 9, 2011). Burghouwt, G., Airline Network Development in Europe and its Implica- tions for Airport Planning, Ashgate Publishing Company, Burling- ton, Vermont (2007). Butts, G. and K. Linton, “The Joint Confidence Paradox: A History of Denial,” Presentation Paper, NASA Cost Symposium (2009). Chambers, R. D., “Tackling Uncertainty in Airport Design: A Real Options Approach,” Master of Science Thesis, MIT Technology and Policy Program, Cambridge, MA (2007). Coffman Associates, Inc., Roberts Field Redmond Municipal Airport Master Plan: Final Technical Report, Redmond, Oregon (2005). Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, Airport Development Plan Update (1997). De Neufville, R., “Uncertainty Management for Engineering Systems Planning and Design,” Monograph draft for Engineering Systems Division (2004). De Neufville, R. and J. Barber, “Deregulation Induced Volatility of Airport Traffic.” Transportation Planning and Technology, 16(2) (1991), pp. 117–128. De Neufville, R. and M. A. Cardin, “A Direct Interaction Approach to Identify Real Options ‘in’ Large-Scale Infrastructure Systems,” Real Options Conference (2009). De Neufville, R. and A. Odoni, Airport Systems: Planning, Design, and Management, McGraw-Hill, New York (2003). De Neufville, R. and S. Scholtes, Flexibility in Engineering Design, MIT Press (2011). De Neufville R., S. Scholtes, and T. Wang, “Valuing Real Options by Spreadsheet, Parking Garage Case Example.” Journal of Infrastruc- ture Systems, Vol. 12, No. 3 (2006). De Neufville R. and T. Wang, “Identification of Real Options ‘in’ Projects.” Proceedings, INCOSE International Symposium, Orlan- do (2006). De Neufville, R., O. de Weck, and J. Lin, “Identifying Real Options to Improve the Design of Engineering Systems,” Working book chap- ter (2008). http://ardent.mit.edu/real_options/Real_opts_papers/ nembhard%20final%20draft.pdf.(Accessed December 15, 2010). Federal Aviation Administration, Terminal Area Forecasts Summary Fiscal Years 1998–2015, Washington, D.C. (1998). Federal Aviation Administration, Terminal Area Forecasts Summary Fiscal Years 1999–2015, Washington, D.C. (1999). Federal Aviation Administration, Terminal Area Forecasts Summary Fiscal Years 2000–2015, Washington, D.C. (2000). Federal Aviation Administration, Terminal Area Forecasts Summary Fiscal Years 2001–2015, Washington, D.C. (2001). Federal Aviation Administration, Terminal Area Forecasts Summary Fiscal Years 2002–2020, Washington, D.C. (2002). Federal Aviation Administration, Terminal Area Forecasts Summary Fiscal Years 2003–2020, Washington, D.C. (2003). Federal Aviation Administration, Terminal Area Forecasts Summary Fiscal Years 2004–2020, Washington, D.C. (2004). A p p e n d i x A References

112 Kwakkel, J., W. E. Walker, and V. Marchau, “Assessing the Efficacy of Adaptive Airport Strategic Planning: Results from Computational Experiments,” submitted to Transport Policy (2010). Kwakkel, J. H., W. E. Walker, and R. A. A. Wijnen, “The Treatment of Uncertainty in Airport Strategic Planning: The Case of Schiphol Air- port’s Long-Term Vision,” Paper presented at the 12th Air Trans- port Research Society World Conference, Athens, Greece (2008). Lambert-St. Louis International Airport Official Website, Historical Passenger Statistics. http://www.lambert-stlouis.com/flystl/media- newsroom/stats/. (Accessed February 27, 2012). Landrum & Brown, ACRP Report 25: Airport Passenger Terminal Plan- ning and Design: Volume 1: Guidebook, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, D.C. (2010). Lea, J., “Lambert Celebrates Launch of China Cargo.” Air Transport News (September, 2011). http://www.airtransportnews.aero/article. pl?id=32309. 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McConnell, J., “A Life-Cycle Flexibility Framework for Designing, Evaluating and Managing Complex Real Options,” PhD Disserta- tion, MIT Engineering Systems Division, Cambridge, MA (2007). McCullough, B. D., “Consistent Forecast Intervals when the Forecast- period Exogenous Variables are Stochastic.” Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 15, Issue 4 (1996), pp. 293–304. Puget Sound Business Journal, “Bellingham Airport Closes to Resur- face Runway.” Puget Sound Business Journal (August 2010). http:// www.bizjournals.com/seattle/stories/2010/08/30/daily10.html. (Accessed November 19, 2010). Ralph M. Parsons Company, Volume I: Overview of Baltimore/Washington International Airport Master Plan Update, Maryland Department of Transportation, Maryland (1987). Ricondo and Associates, Inc., Booz Allen Hamilton, Inc., George Mason University, and National Service Research, ACRP Report 20: Strategic Planning in the Airport Industry, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, D.C. (2009). Rodrigue J. P., C. Comtois, and B. Slack, The Geography of Transport Systems, New York: Routledge (2009). Rowe, G. and G. Wright, “The Delphi Technique as a Forecasting Tool: Issues and Analysis.” International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 15 (1999), pp. 353–375. Spitz, W. and F. Berardino, ACRP Report 48: Impact of Jet Fuel Price Uncer- tainty on Airport Planning and Development, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, D.C. (2011). Spitz, W. and R. Golaszewski, ACRP Synthesis 2: Airport Aviation Activ- ity Forecasting, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, D.C. (2007). Federal Aviation Administration, Terminal Area Forecasts Summary Fiscal Years 2005–2025, Washington, D.C. 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113 Vilain, P. and T. Muhammad, “Risk Analysis for Demand Forecasts,” Halcrow Consulting Inc., Technical Memorandum (2009). Walker, W. E., “Policy Analysis: A Systematic Approach to Supporting Policymaking in the Public Sector.” Journal of Multicriteria Deci- sion Analysis, Vol. 9 (2000), pp. 11–27. Walker, W. E., S. A. Rahman, and J. Cave, “Adaptive Policies, Policy Analysis, and Policy-Making.” European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 128 (2001), pp. 282–289. Washington Dulles International Airport Official Website, Air Traffic Statistics, http://www.mwaa.com/dulles/653.htm. (Accessed November 29, 2010). Yokum, T. J. and J. S. Armstrong, “Beyond Accuracy: Comparison of Criteria Used to Select Forecasting Methods.” International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 11, Issue 4 (1995), pp. 591–597. St. Louis Business Journal, 2009, “Commission Looks to Bring Chinese Air Freight to St. Louis.” St. Louis Business Journal (January 2009). http://www.bizjournals.com/stlouis/stories/2009/01/19/daily56. html. (Accessed February 22, 2012). Taleb, N. N., The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Random House Publishing Group, New York (2007). Trigeorgis, L., Real Options: Managerial Flexibility and Strategy in Resource Allocation, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA (1996). UK Department for Transport, UK Air Passenger Demand and CO2 Forecasts, London (2009). URS, Leibowitz & Horton AMC, and JUB Engineers, Inc., Bellingham International Airport Master Plan Update, Port of Bellingham (2004). Vancouver International Airport Authority, YVR: Your Airport 2027, 20-Year Master Plan, Vancouver (2007).

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TRB’s Airport Cooperative Research Program (ACRP) Report 76: Addressing Uncertainty about Future Airport Activity Levels in Airport Decision Making provides a systems analysis methodology that augments standard airport master planning and strategic planning approaches.

The methodology includes a set of tools for improving the understanding and application of risk and uncertainty in air traffic forecasts as well as for increasing the overall effectiveness of airport planning and decision making.

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