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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23550.
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The Economic and
Fiscal Consequences of
Immigration

Panel on the Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration

Francine D. Blau and Christopher Mackie, Editors

Committee on National Statistics

Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

A Report of

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, DC
www.nap.edu

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23550.
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This activity was supported by Grant No. 13-103091-000-CFP from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, with additional support from the National Academy of Engineering Independent Fund, the National Academy of Medicine Independent Fund, and the National Academy of Sciences Independent Fund. Support for the work of the Committee on National Statistics is provided by a consortium of federal agencies through a grant from the National Science Foundation (award number SES-1024012). Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the organization or agency that provided support for the project.

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Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. (2017). The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: https://doi.org/10.17226/23550.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23550.
×

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23550.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23550.
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PANEL ON THE ECONOMIC AND FISCAL CONSEQUENCES OF IMMIGRATION

FRANCINE D. BLAU (Chair), Department of Economics, Cornell University

MICHAEL BEN-GAD, Department of Economics, School of Arts and Social Sciences, City, University of London

GEORGE J. BORJAS, Malcolm Wiener Center for Social Policy, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University

CHRISTIAN DUSTMANN, Department of Economics, University College London

BARRY EDMONSTON, Department of Sociology, University of Victoria, BC

ISAAC EHRLICH, Department of Economics, State University of New York at Buffalo

CHARLES HIRSCHMAN, Department of Sociology, University of Washington, Seattle

JENNIFER HUNT, Department of Economics, Rutgers University

DOWELL MYERS, Sol Price School of Public Policy, University of Southern California

PIA M. ORRENIUS, Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, TX

JEFFREY S. PASSEL, Pew Research Center, Washington, DC

KIM RUEBEN, Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute, Washington, DC

MARTA TIENDA, Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University

YU XIE, Princeton Institute of International and Regional Studies, Princeton University

GRETCHEN DONEHOWER, University of California, Berkeley (consultant to the panel)

RYAN EDWARDS, Queens College, City University of New York (consultant to the panel)

SARAH GAULT, Urban Institute (consultant to the panel)

JULIA GELATT, Urban Institute (consultant to the panel)

CHRISTOPHER MACKIE, Study Director

CONSTANCE F. CITRO, CNSTAT Director

ESHA SINHA, Associate Program Officer

ANTHONY S. MANN, Program Coordinator

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23550.
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COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS

LAWRENCE D. BROWN (Chair), Department of Statistics, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania

FRANCINE BLAU, Department of Economics, Cornell University

MARY ELLEN BOCK, Department of Statistics (emerita), Purdue University

MICHAEL CHERNEW, Department of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School

JANET CURRIE, Department of Economics, Princeton University

DONALD DILLMAN, Social and Economic Sciences Research Center, Washington State University

CONSTANTINE GATSONIS, Department of Biostatistics and Center for Statistical Sciences, Brown University

JAMES S. HOUSE, Survey Research Center, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan

THOMAS MESENBOURG, U.S. Census Bureau (retired)

SUSAN MURPHY, Department of Statistics and Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan

SARAH NUSSER, Office of the Vice President for Research, Iowa State University

COLM O’MUIRCHEARTAIGH, Harris School of Public Policy Studies, University of Chicago

RUTH PETERSON, Criminal Justice Research Center, Ohio State University

ROBERTO RIGOBON, Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

EDWARD SHORTLIFFE, Department of Biomedical Informatics, Columbia University and Arizona State University

CONSTANCE F. CITRO, Director

BRIAN HARRIS-KOJETIN, Deputy Director

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23550.
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Acknowledgments

This report is the product of contributions from many colleagues, whom we thank for their time, generosity, and expert guidance. The project was sponsored by the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation. We thank Tara Magner and Valerie Chang, who represented the MacArthur Foundation, for their roles in initiating the study and for their insights during the development and early stages of the project. Supplemental support was provided by the National Academy of Engineering Independent Fund, the National Academy of Medicine Independent Fund, and the National Academy of Sciences Independent Fund.

The panel thanks the following individuals who attended open meetings and generously gave of their time to present material to inform the panel’s deliberations. Ronald Lee (University of California, Berkeley) reviewed methods for producing intergenerational population and fiscal impact projections. Gordon Hanson (University of California, San Diego) discussed the role of immigrants in innovation. Ian Preston (University College London) gave a presentation about immigration and public finances in the United Kingdom. Alan Auerbach (University of California, Berkeley) shared his deep expertise on tax and fiscal policy and on intergenerational estimates of fiscal impacts. Matthew Hall (Cornell University) described his research on interstate migration and the assimilation of U.S. immigrants. Brian Cadena (University of Colorado Boulder) described how immigrants affected the spatial allocation of labor across localized markets during the Great Recession. Audrey Singer (Brookings Institution) discussed the comparative skill and educational profiles of immigrants and the native-born in the United States, as well as policy and public responses to immigration. David Card (Uni-

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23550.
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versity of California, Berkeley) engaged the panel on a wide range of labor market topics, including wage impacts and employment effects across skill and other groups, and on variation in the capacity of industries to absorb immigrants. Ethan Lewis (Dartmouth College) presented on immigrant and native substitutability in the labor market and on the impact of immigration on production technology and economic growth. Ted Mouw (University of North Carolina) discussed evidence from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics on worker displacement in high-immigration industries. Rob Fairlie (University of California, Santa Cruz) described findings from his research on the impact of immigrants on entrepreneurship and job creation. Magnus Lofstrom (Public Policy Institute of California) likewise discussed entrepreneurship and job creation and the role of state policies affecting these processes. Sarah Bohn (Public Policy Institute of California) discussed the role of immigrants in informal labor markets in California. Annette Bernhardt (University of California, Berkeley) presented on how unauthorized status plays out in the workplace—its correlation with higher rates of unemployment and labor law violations, and how current immigration policy shapes the bargaining between employers and undocumented workers. Laura Hill (Public Policy Institute of California), with input from Hans Johnson (Public Policy Institute of California), provided an overview of state and local policy issues affected by immigration in California, and of methods using administrative IRS data and indirect survey methods for measuring the extent of unregulated/unauthorized work. Nancy Folbre (University of Massachusetts Amherst) provided information to the panel about immigration and nonmarket and care work. Giovanni Peri (University of California, Davis) presented on labor market issues ranging from the role of immigrants in stimulating local labor markets to the impact of foreign science, technology, engineering, and mathematics workers on native wages and employment in U.S. cities. Dan Lichter (Cornell University) discussed Hispanic boomtowns and how immigration affects population change and racial diversity in rural America. Klaus Zimmermann (University of Bonn) presented evidence to the panel on the economic and fiscal impacts of circular migration. Lynn Karoly and Francisco Perez-Arce (RAND Corporation) presented a framework for benefit-cost analyses of state-specific immigration policies (e.g., in-state tuition, e-verify, driver’s licensing, etc.). These presentations stimulated extensive discussion of the issues covered in this report.

The panel also wishes to thank Joan Monras (Columbia University), Joan Llull (Center for Monetary and Financial Studies), and Patricia Cortés (Boston University) for their help with the Chapter 5 analysis of the effect on native wages of an inflow of immigrants into the labor market.

The panel could not have conducted its work efficiently without the capable staff of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. Connie Citro, director of the Committee on National Statistics, and

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23550.
×

Robert Hauser, executive director of the Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, provided institutional leadership and substantive contributions during meetings—Connie also contributed to the writing of the report as well. Kirsten Sampson-Snyder, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, expertly coordinated the review process. Robert Katt provided meticulous, insightful, and thorough final editing that improved the readability of the report for a wide audience. Esha Sinha provided highly capable data analyses for the panel and helped coordinate panel meetings. We also thank program associate Anthony Mann for his well-organized and efficient logistical support of the panel’s meetings.

On behalf of the panel, I would like to express our deep gratitude to our study director, Christopher Mackie. He did a superb job in keeping us on track and coordinating all our myriad activities from our review of the existing literature to our original data analyses. He helped organize our meetings and develop the structure of the panel’s final report, contributed to our literature review and the drafting and reworking of the report’s chapters, and shepherded the report through the final review process. We all benefited enormously from his superlative organizational skills, insightful input into the report, and resourcefulness, as well as his patience and good humor. Speaking personally, it has been a great pleasure to collaborate with Chris on this important endeavor.

We thank the consultants to the panel who were absolutely critical to the extensive data analyses underlying major parts of this report. Collaborating with members of the panel, Gretchen Donehower (University of California, Berkeley) and Ryan Edwards (Queens College and University of California, Berkeley) produced the national-level fiscal impact estimates. Sarah Gault (Urban Institute) provided data analysis for the state and local fiscal impacts estimates. Julia Gelatt (Urban Institute) provided a range of data analyses of educational and occupational profiles of the population.

Finally, and most importantly, a note of appreciation is in order for my fellow panel members. Despite their many professional commitments, every panel member donated countless hours and shared extensive expertise to make this report possible. As a result, the report reflects the collective expertise and commitment of all panel members: Michael Ben-Gad, City, University of London; George J. Borjas, Harvard University; Christian Dustmann, University College London; Barry Edmonston, University of Victoria; Isaac Ehrlich, State University of New York at Buffalo; Charles Hirschman, University of Washington, Seattle; Jennifer Hunt, Rutgers University; Dowell Myers, Sol Price School of Public Policy at the University of Southern California; Pia Orrenius, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Jeffrey S. Passel, Pew Research Center; Kim Rueben, Urban Institute; Marta Tienda, Princeton University; and Yu Xie, Princeton University. This group—deliberately chosen for their varied perspectives, diverse back-

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23550.
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grounds, and deep subject-matter knowledge—displayed rigor and creativity, and also patience when dealing with one another to produce this report.

This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that assist the institution in making its reports as sound as possible, and to ensure that the reports meet institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process.

The panel thanks the following individuals for their helpful reviews of this report: Alan J. Auerbach, Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley; Claire D. Brindis, Bixby Center for Global Reproductive Health and Adolescent and Young Adult Health-National Resource Center, University of California, San Francisco; Steven Camarota, Center for Immigration Studies, Washington, DC; David Card, Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley; Gordon Hanson, Center for Emerging and Pacific Economies, School of International Relations and Pacific Studies, University of California, San Diego; Laura Hill, Public Policy Institute of California; Ronil Hira, Department of Political Science, Howard University; Ronald Lee, Department of Demography, University of California, Berkeley; Ethan G Lewis, Economics Department, Dartmouth College; Douglas S. Massey, Department of Sociology, Princeton University; Alejandro Portes, Department of Sociology, Princeton University; Audrey Singer, Metropolitan Policy Program, Brookings Institution; and Madeline Zavodny, Department of Economics, Agnes Scott College.

Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of the report was overseen by Julie DaVanzo, Center for the Study of Family Economic Development, RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, and Christopher A. Sims, Department of Economics, Princeton University. Appointed by the Report Review Committee of the National Academies, they were responsible for making certain that the independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. We are indebted to them for scrupulously executing their charge. Responsibility for the final content of the report rests entirely with the authoring panel and the institution.

Francine D. Blau, Chair

Panel on the Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23550.
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Page xiii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23550.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23550.
×

3-3 Segregation Index of U.S.-born and Foreign-born Workers, Ages 25-64, Across 41 Occupations, by Decennial Census Year 1970-2000, and in 2012

3-4 Mean Share of Weeks Worked by Foreign-born and Native-born Men, by Decennial Census Year 1970-2000, and in 2012, Ages 25-64

3-5 Mean Share of Weeks Worked by Foreign-born and Native-born Women, by Decennial Census Year 1970-2000, and in 2012, Ages 25-64

3-6 Mean Share of Weeks Worked by Foreign-born and Native-born Men, by Decennial Census Year 1970-2000, and in 2012, Ages 25-54

3-7 Mean Share of Weeks Worked by Foreign-born and Native-born Women, by Decennial Census Year 1970-2000, and in 2012, Ages 25-54

3-8 Difference in Share of Weeks Worked for Immigrant Cohorts, Relative to Native-born Cohort, by Census Period, Men, Ages 25-64

3-9 Difference in Share of Weeks Worked for Immigrant Cohorts, Relative to Native-born Cohort, by Census Period, Women, Ages 25-64

3-10 Average Hourly Wages and Earnings of Employed Foreign-born and Native-born Men, by Decennial Census Year 1970-2000, and in 2012, Ages 25-64, in 2012 Dollars

3-11 Average Hourly Wages and Earnings of Employed Foreign-born and Native-born Women, by Decennial Census Year 1970-2000, and in 2012, Ages 25-64, in 2012 Dollars

3-12 Weekly Wage Assimilation of Male Immigrants, by Cohort (percentage difference between native-born and foreign-born wages)

3-13 Weekly Wage Assimilation of Female Immigrants, by Cohort (percentage difference between native-born and foreign-born wages)

3-14 Percentage of Immigrants and Their Children in Poverty and Near Poverty, by Source Country and World Region of Birth, 2011

3-15 Welfare Use of Households with Children, by State, Current Population Survey 2011-2013 (in percentage)

3-16 Educational Attainment of Male Immigrants, Ages 25 and Older, by Decennial Census Year 1970-2000, and in 2012

3-17 Educational Attainment of Female Immigrants, Ages 25 and Older, by Decennial Census Year 1970-2000, and in 2012

Page xvii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23550.
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3-18 Share of Foreign-born Male Workers (percentage), Ages 25-64, by Occupational Category, by Decennial Census Year 1970-2000, and in 2012

3-19 Share of Foreign-born Female Workers (percentage), Ages 25-64, by Occupational Category, by Decennial Census Year 1970-2000, and in 2012

3-20 Difference in Share of Weeks Worked for Immigrant Cohorts, by Decennial Census Year 1970-2000, and in 2012, Men, Ages 25-64, Controlling for Age (cubic) Only

3-21 Difference in Share of Weeks Worked for Immigrant Cohorts, by Decennial Census Year 1970-2000, and in 2012, Men, Ages 25-64, Controlling for Age (cubic) and Years of Education

3-22 Difference in Share of Weeks Worked for Immigrant Cohorts, by Decennial Census Year 1970-2000, and in 2012, Women, Ages 25-64, Controlling for Age (cubic) Only

3-23 Difference in Share of Weeks Worked for Immigrant Cohorts, by Decennial Census Year 1970-2000, and in 2012, Women, Ages 25-64, Controlling for Age (cubic) and Years of Education

3-24 Age-adjusted Relative Weekly Earnings of Immigrant Cohorts, by Decennial Census Year 1970-2000, Men, Ages 25-64, Controlling for Age (cubic) Only

3-25 Age- and Education-adjusted Relative Weekly Earnings of Immigrant Cohorts, by Decennial Census Year 1970-2000, and in 2012, Men, Ages 25-64, Controlling for Age (cubic) and Years of Education

3-26 Age-adjusted Relative Weekly Earnings of Immigrant Cohorts, by Decennial Census Year 1970-2000, and in 2012, Women, Ages 25-64, Controlling for Age (cubic) Only

3-27 Age- and Education-adjusted Relative Weekly Earnings of Immigrant Cohorts, by Decennial Census Year 1970-2000, and in 2012, Women, Ages 25-64, Controlling for Age (cubic) and Years of Education

3-28 Age-adjusted Probabilities of Speaking English Very Well, Immigrant Cohorts, by Decennial Census Year 1980-2000, and in 2012, Men, Ages 25-64, Controlling for Age (cubic) Only

3-29 Age-adjusted Probabilities of Speaking English Very Well, Immigrant Cohorts, by Decennial Census Year 1980-2000, and in 2012, Women, Ages 25-64, Controlling for Age (cubic) Only

3-30 Age-adjusted Probabilities of Speaking English Well, Immigrant Cohorts, by Decennial Census Year 1980-2000, and in 2012, Men, Ages 25-64, Controlling for Age (cubic) Only

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23550.
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3-31 Age-adjusted Probabilities of Speaking English Well, Immigrant Cohorts, by Decennial Census Year 1980-2000, and in 2012, Women, Ages 25-64, Controlling for Age (cubic) Only

5-1 Simulated Percentage for Wage Impacts of 1990-2010 Immigrant Supply Shock

5-2 Effect on Native Wages of an Inflow of Immigrants That Increases Labor Supply by 1 Percent

5-3 Recent Studies Using Cross-Area, Occupation, or Industry Approaches

6-1 Educational Attainment as of 2012 of the Foreign-born Population (in thousands), Ages 25 and Older, by Year of Entry

6-2 Educational Attainment as of 2012 of the U.S. Foreign-born and Native-born Populations (in thousands), Ages 25 and Older, by World Region of Birth

6-3 Mean Years of Schooling of U.S.-born Versus All and Recent Foreign-born Immigrant Populations by World Region of Birth

7-1 Domains and Types of Impacts of Immigration That Affect Fiscal Balances

7-2 Multiple Impacts of Granting Eligibility to Undocumented Immigrants for In-State Tuition

8-1 Net per Capita Fiscal Impacts, in 1994 and 2013, of First Generation Immigrants and Their Dependents, Second Generation Native-born Independent Individuals and Their Dependents, and Third-plus Generation Native-born Independent Individuals and Their Dependents, by Level of Government

8-2 Net per Capita Fiscal Impacts of First, Second, and Third-plus Generation Groups (each with dependents) in 2013, by Scenario and Level of Government

8-3 Regression Analysis of Net Fiscal Impacts (in dollars per person) of First and Second Generation Groups Relative to Third-plus Generation Group, 1994-2013, by Level of Government

8-4 Average Annual Growth in Per Capita Flows, 2012-2087 (under three scenarios, in percentage)

8-5 Educational Distribution by Generation, Ages 25 and Older, for Recent (past 5 years) and All Immigrants

8-6 Age Distribution by Generation, 1994-1996 and 2011-2013

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23550.
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8-7 Average per Person Benefits Received, by Age Group and Generational Group, 1995 and 2010 (in thousands of 2012 dollars)

8-8 Predicted Educational Distribution of U.S.-born Children of a Foreign-born Parent, Percentages of Parental Offspring Expected to Be in an Educational Category (rows add to 100)

8-9 Predicted Educational Distribution of U.S.-born Children of a U.S.-born Parent, Percentages of Parental Offspring Expected to Be in an Educational Category (rows add to 100)

8-10 Observed and Projected Educational Distribution for Immigrants, Ages 20-30, Who Arrived in the United States in the Past 5 Years and Their Descendants

8-11 Demographic Indicators Used in Fiscal Impact Calculations

8-12 75-year Net Present Value Flows for Consolidated Federal, State, and Local Governments for Two Future Budget Scenarios, by Education and Age of Arrival, Varying the Treatment of Public Goods and Characteristics of an Average Immigrant (fiscal impacts are in thousands of 2012 dollars)

8-13 75-year Net Present Value Flows Comparing an Immigrant Arriving at Age 25 with a Native-born Person Followed from Age 25, for Consolidated Government Finances under Two Future Budget Scenarios, by Educational Attainment, Varying the Treatment of Public Goods (in thousands of 2012 dollars)

8-14 75-year Present Value Flows for Consolidated Federal, State, and Local Governments for Three Future Budget Scenarios, by Grouped Ages of Immigrant Arrival in the United States, with Public Goods Excluded from Incremental Benefit Costs to Immigrants and Descendants (flows in thousands of 2012 dollars)

8-15 75-year Present Value Flows for Federal Government Only, for Three Future Budget Scenarios, by Grouped Ages of Immigrant Arrival in the United States, with Public Goods Excluded from Incremental Benefit Costs to Immigrants and Descendants (flows in thousands of 2012 dollars)

8-16 75-year Present Value Flows for State and Local Governments only, for Three Future Budget Scenarios, by Grouped Ages of Immigrant Arrival in the United States, with Public Goods Excluded from Incremental Benefit Costs to Immigrants and Descendants (flows in thousands of 2012 dollars)

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23550.
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8-17 75-year Present Value Flows for Consolidated Federal, State, and Local Governments for Three Future Budget Scenarios, by Grouped Ages of Immigrant Arrival in the United States, with Public Goods (defense, federal subsidies, and rest-of-world payments) Included in Incremental Benefit Costs to Immigrants and Descendants (flows in thousands of 2012 dollars)

8-18 75-year Present Value Flows for Federal Governments Only, for Three Future Budget Scenarios, by Grouped Ages of Immigrant Arrival in the United States, with Public Goods (defense, federal subsidies, and rest-of-world payments) Included in Incremental Benefit Costs to Immigrants and Descendants (flows in thousands of 2012 dollars)

9-1 Percentage Foreign-born Population by State, 2011-2013 and 2000, in Order from Highest to Lowest Percentage Foreign-born in 2011-2013

9-2 Percentage Independent Persons by Immigrant Generation, by State, 2011-2013, in Order from Highest to Lowest Percentage (first generation independent persons)

9-3 Average Age and Percentage, Ages 65 and Older, Independent Persons by Immigrant Generation by State, 2011-2013

9-4 State and Local Revenues per Independent Person Unit (rounded to nearest $50), by Immigrant Generation by State, 2011-2013

9-5 State and Local Expenditures per Independent Person Unit (rounded to nearest $50), by Immigrant Generation by State, 2011-2013

9-6 Net Difference between State and Local Revenues and Expenditures per Independent Person Unit (rounded to nearest $50), by Immigrant Generation by State, 2011-2013

9-7 Net Difference between State and Local Revenues and Expenditures per Household Unit (rounded to nearest $50), by Immigrant Generation by State, 2011-2013

9-8 Regression Analysis of Net Fiscal Impact at the State and Local Level per Independent Person Unit, by Immigrant Generation, 2011-2013

9-9 Net Difference between State and Local Revenues and Expenditures per Independent Person Unit with Alternative Assignment of Education Expenditures (rounded to nearest $50), by Immigrant Generation, 2011-2013

9-10 Net Difference between State and Local Revenues and Expenditures per Independent Person Unit with a Marginal Allocation of Fixed Revenues and Expenditures (rounded to nearest $50), by Immigrant Generation by State, 2011-2013

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23550.
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9-11 Census of Governments (COG) State and Local Revenue Flow Types and Allocation Methods

9-12 Census of Governments (COG) State and Local Expenditure Flow Types and Allocation Methods

9-13 Annualized Weighted Sample Cases of Independent Persons by Immigrant Generation by State, Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement for 2011-2013

9-14 Sum of Unweighted Sample Cases of Independent Persons by Immigrant Generation by State, Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement for 2011-2013 Total

9-15 Average Number of Children (dependents) per Independent Person Unit, by Immigrant Generation by State, 2011-2013

9-16 Average Adjusted Gross Income (AGI) per Independent Person Unit (rounded to nearest $50), by Immigrant Generation by State, 2011-2013

9-17 Percentage with Less Than a High School Degree (<HS) and More Than a Bachelor’s Degree (>BA), Independent Persons by Immigrant Generation by State, 2011-2013

9-18 Net Difference between State and Local Revenues and Expenditures per Independent Person Unit (rounded to nearest $50), Including Coefficient of Variation Below, by Immigrant Generation by State, 2011-2013

9-19 Average Household Size per Household Unit, by Immigrant Generation by State, 2011-2013

9-20 Annualized Weighted Sample Cases of Households by Immigrant Generation by State, Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement for 2011-2013

FIGURES

2-1 Legal immigration to the United States, 1820-2012

2-2 Percentage of first and second generations in the U.S. population, 1850-2030

2-3 Change in age composition of U.S. population from 1960-2030 (projected)

2-4 Rising senior ratio in the U.S. population, with and without projected immigration

2-5 Net change in working-age population each decade, by immigrant generation (in millions), 1960-1970 to 2020-2030

3-1 Educational attainment of recent immigrants (those who entered in the 5 years prior), by Decennial Census year 1970-2000, and in 2012 (in percentages)

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23550.
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3-2 Mean years of educational attainment of U.S.-born and recent immigrants (those who entered in the 5 years prior), by Decennial Census year, 1970-2000, and in 2012

3-3 Mean years of educational attainment of recent immigrants, (those who entered in the 5 years prior), by Decennial Census year, 1970-2000, and in 2012, by country/region of birth

3-4 Age and educational attainment of foreign-born residents, 1970 and 2012

3-5 Age and educational attainment of U.S.-born residents, 1970 and 2012

3-6 Aging profile for high English-language proficiency of male immigrants (wage earners), by arrival cohort

3-7 Aging profile for high English-language proficiency of female immigrants (wage earners), by arrival cohort

3-8 Aging profile for moderate English-language proficiency of male immigrants (wage earners), by arrival cohort

3-9 Aging profile for moderate English-language proficiency of female immigrants (wage earners), by arrival cohort

3-10 Poverty rates for all U.S. residents, natives, and immigrants, 1970-2010

3-11 Safety net participation as fraction of households (Y axis) with incomes less than 200 percent of the federal poverty level

3-12 Trends in poverty rate of children, 1994-2009

3-13 Trends in program participation of children, 1994-2009

4-1 Labor market (with inelastic labor supply) response to an influx of immigrant workers

4-2 Capital market (with inelastic labor supply) response to an influx of immigrant workers

4-3 Labor market (with elastic labor supply) response to an influx of immigrant workers

4-4 Capital market (with elastic labor supply) response to an influx of immigrant workers

4-5 Low-skilled labor market response to an influx of low-skilled immigrant workers

4-6 High-skilled labor market response to an influx of low-skilled immigrant workers

4-7 Capital market response to an influx of low-skilled immigrant workers

4-8 High-skilled labor market response to an influx of high-skilled immigrant workers

4-9 Low-skilled labor market response to an influx of high-skilled immigrant workers

Page xxiii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23550.
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4-10 Capital market response to an influx of high-skilled immigrant workers

4-11 The allocations of capital and labor in a two-good economy, before and after immigration

4-12 High-skilled labor market response to an influx of high-skilled immigrant workers (with long-run technological change)

5-1 Predicted and actual position of recent immigrants (less than 2 years in the United States) in the wage distribution

5-2 Scatter between male wages and male immigration across skill groups

5-3 Self-employment rates by nativity, 2000-2012

7-1 Age-specific taxes and benefits, by immigrant generation, United States, 2012

8-1 The U.S. population by age and immigrant status in 1995

8-2 The U.S. population by age and immigrant status in 2011

8-3 Average number of own children in household, by immigrant generation, 2013

8-4 Average years of education across age by immigrant generation in 1994

8-5 Average years of education across age by immigrant generation in 2013

8-6 Employment-to-population ratio across age by immigrant generation in 1994

8-7 Employment-to-population ratio across age by immigrant generation in 2013

8-8 Wage and salary income in 2012 dollars by immigrant generation in 1995

8-9 Wage and salary income in 2012 dollars by immigrant generation in 2012

8-10 Fiscal flows, first generation immigrants to the United States, 2012

8-11 Total taxes paid per capita in 1995 at all levels of government, by age and immigrant generation

8-12 Total taxes paid per capita in 2012 at all levels of government, by age and immigrant generation

8-13 Total per capita benefits received in 1995 at all levels of government, by age and by immigrant generation

8-14 Total per capita benefits received in 2012 at all levels of government, by age and by immigrant generation

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The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration finds that the long-term impact of immigration on the wages and employment of native-born workers overall is very small, and that any negative impacts are most likely to be found for prior immigrants or native-born high school dropouts. First-generation immigrants are more costly to governments than are the native-born, but the second generation are among the strongest fiscal and economic contributors in the U.S. This report concludes that immigration has an overall positive impact on long-run economic growth in the U.S.

More than 40 million people living in the United States were born in other countries, and almost an equal number have at least one foreign-born parent. Together, the first generation (foreign-born) and second generation (children of the foreign-born) comprise almost one in four Americans. It comes as little surprise, then, that many U.S. residents view immigration as a major policy issue facing the nation. Not only does immigration affect the environment in which everyone lives, learns, and works, but it also interacts with nearly every policy area of concern, from jobs and the economy, education, and health care, to federal, state, and local government budgets.

The changing patterns of immigration and the evolving consequences for American society, institutions, and the economy continue to fuel public policy debate that plays out at the national, state, and local levels. The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration assesses the impact of dynamic immigration processes on economic and fiscal outcomes for the United States, a major destination of world population movements. This report will be a fundamental resource for policy makers and law makers at the federal, state, and local levels but extends to the general public, nongovernmental organizations, the business community, educational institutions, and the research community.

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