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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. From Maps to Models: Augmenting the Nation's Geospatial Intelligence Capabilities. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23650.
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FROM MAPS TO MODELS

AUGMENTING THE NATION’S
GEOSPATIAL INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES

Committee on Models of the World for the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency

Board on Earth Sciences and Resources/Mapping Science Committee
Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
Division on Earth and Life Studies

Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications
Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

A Report of

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, DC
www.nap.edu

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. From Maps to Models: Augmenting the Nation's Geospatial Intelligence Capabilities. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23650.
×

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001

This activity was supported by the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency under Contract No. HM017713C0002. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.

International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-44991-5
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-44991-X
Digital Object Identifier: 10.17226/23650

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Copyright 2016 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Cover: (Upper) Past and projected Arctic sea ice decline, 1890–2090. Observed values (black line) are for 1953–2012. Projected values (colored lines, 2010–2090) represent different future policies for regulating CO2, from very high emissions (red line) to substantially declining emissions after 2020 (green line). SOURCE: Modified from Stroeve et al. (2012). (Lower) Arctic sea ice summertime minimum on September 10, 2016 (white) compared to 1981-2010 average minimum (gold line). SOURCE: NASA Goddard’s Scientific Visualization Studio/C. Starr.

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Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. From Maps to Models: Augmenting the Nation’s Geospatial Intelligence Capabilities. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23650.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. From Maps to Models: Augmenting the Nation's Geospatial Intelligence Capabilities. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23650.
×

Image

The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president.

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. From Maps to Models: Augmenting the Nation's Geospatial Intelligence Capabilities. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23650.
×

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Reports document the evidence-based consensus of an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and committee deliberations. Reports are peer reviewed and are approved by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine.

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. From Maps to Models: Augmenting the Nation's Geospatial Intelligence Capabilities. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23650.
×

COMMITTEE ON MODELS OF THE WORLD FOR THE NATIONAL GEOSPATIAL-INTELLIGENCE AGENCY

DAVID M. HIGDON, Chair, Virginia Tech, Arlington, Virginia

ROBERT L. AXTELL, George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia

VENKATRAMANI BALAJI, Princeton University/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, New Jersey

LAWRENCE E. BUJA, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

KATHERINE V. CALVIN, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory/Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, Maryland

KATHLEEN M. CARLEY, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

REBECCA CASTAÑO, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California

RONALD R. COIFMAN, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut

OMAR GHATTAS, The University of Texas at Austin

JAMES A. HANSEN, Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, California

ANNA M. MICHALAK, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, California

SHASHI SHEKHAR, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis

SHAOWEN WANG, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES OF SCIENCES, ENGINEERING, AND MEDICINE STAFF

ANNE M. LINN, Study Director, Board on Earth Sciences and Resources

EDWARD J. DUNLEA, Senior Program Manager, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

SCOTT T. WEIDMAN, Director, Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications

ERIC J. EDKIN, Senior Program Assistant, Board on Earth Sciences and Resources

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. From Maps to Models: Augmenting the Nation's Geospatial Intelligence Capabilities. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23650.
×

BOARD ON EARTH SCIENCES AND RESOURCES

GENE WHITNEY, Chair, Congressional Research Service (Retired), Washington, District of Columbia

R. LYNDON (LYN) ARSCOTT, International Association of Oil & Gas Producers (Retired), Danville, California

CHRISTOPHER (SCOTT) CAMERON, GeoLogical Consulting, LLC, Houston, Texas

CAROL P. HARDEN, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville

T. MARK HARRISON, University of California, Los Angeles

ANN S. MAEST, Buka Environmental, Boulder, Colorado

DAVID R. MAIDMENT, The University of Texas at Austin

M. MEGHAN MILLER, UNAVCO, Inc., Boulder, Colorado

ISABEL P. MONTAÑEZ, University of California, Davis

HENRY N. POLLACK, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

MARY M. POULTON, University of Arizona, Tucson

JAMES M. ROBERTSON, Wisconsin Geological and Natural History Survey, Madison

SHAOWEN WANG, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES OF SCIENCES, ENGINEERING, AND MEDICINE STAFF

ELIZABETH A. EIDE, Director

ANNE M. LINN, Scholar

SAMMANTHA L. MAGSINO, Senior Program Officer

NICHOLAS D. ROGERS, Financial and Research Associate

COURTNEY R. GIBBS, Program Associate

ERIC J. EDKIN, Senior Program Assistant

RAYMOND M. CHAPPETTA, Program Assistant

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. From Maps to Models: Augmenting the Nation's Geospatial Intelligence Capabilities. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23650.
×

BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE

A.R. RAVISHANKARA, Chair, NAS, Colorado State University, Fort Collins

SHUYI S. CHEN, Vice Chair, University of Miami, Florida

LANCE F. BOSART, University at Albany, State University of New York

MARK A. CANE, NAS, Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, New York

HEIDI CULLEN, Climate Central, Princeton, New Jersey

PAMELA EMCH, Northrop Grumman Aerospace Systems, Redondo Beach, California

ARLENE FIORE, Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, New York

WILLIAM B. GAIL, Global Weather Corporation, Boulder, Colorado

LISA GODDARD, Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, New York

MAURA HAGAN, Utah State University, Logan

TERRI S. HOGUE, Colorado School of Mines, Golden

ANTHONY JANETOS, Boston University, Massachusetts

EVERETTE JOSEPH, University at Albany, State University of New York

RONALD “NICK” KEENER, JR., Duke Energy Corporation, Charlotte, North Carolina

JOHN R. NORDGREN, The Climate Resilience Fund, Bainbridge Island, Washington

JONATHAN OVERPECK, University of Arizona, Tucson

ARISTIDES A.N. PATRINOS, New York University, Brooklyn

S.T. RAO, North Carolina State University, Raleigh

DAVID A. ROBINSON, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Piscataway

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES OF SCIENCES, ENGINEERING, AND MEDICINE STAFF

AMANDA STAUDT, Director

EDWARD DUNLEA, Senior Program Officer

LAURIE GELLER, Program Director

KATHERINE THOMAS, Senior Program Officer

LAUREN EVERETT, Program Officer

APRIL MELVIN, Associate Program Officer

AMANDA PURCELL, Associate Program Officer

RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator

YASMIN ROMITTI, Research Associate

ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate

SHELLY FREELAND, Financial Associate

MICHAEL HUDSON, Senior Program Assistant

ERIN MARKOVICH, Program Assistant

Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. From Maps to Models: Augmenting the Nation's Geospatial Intelligence Capabilities. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23650.
×

BOARD ON MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES AND THEIR APPLICATIONS

DONALD SAARI, Chair, University of California, Irvine

DOUGLAS N. ARNOLD, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis

JOHN B. BELL, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, California

VICKI BIER, University of Wisconsin–Madison

JOHN R. BIRGE, University of Chicago, Illinois

RONALD R. COIFMAN NAS, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut

CHRISTINE H. FOX, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, Maryland

MARK L. GREEN, University of California, Los Angeles

PATRICIA A. JACOBS, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California

JOSEPH A. LANGSAM, University of Maryland, College Park

SIMON A. LEVIN, NAS, Princeton University, New Jersey

ANDREW W. LO, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge

DAVID MAIER, Portland State University, Oregon

JUAN C. MEZA, University of California, Merced

FRED S. ROBERTS, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick

GUILLERMO R. SAPIRO, Duke University, Durham

ELIZABETH A. THOMPSON, NAS, University of Washington, Seattle

KAREN WILCOX, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge

DAVID D. YAO, Columbia University, New York

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES OF SCIENCES, ENGINEERING, AND MEDICINE STAFF

SCOTT T. WEIDMAN, Director

NEAL GLASSMAN, Senior Program Officer

MICHELLE K. SCHWALBE, Program Officer

RODNEY N. HOWARD, Administrative Assistant

BETH DOLAN, Financial Associate

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. From Maps to Models: Augmenting the Nation's Geospatial Intelligence Capabilities. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23650.
×

Acknowledgments

The report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report:

Erica Briscoe, Georgia Tech Research Institute, Smyrna

Paul K. Davis, RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, California

Auroop R. Ganguly, Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts

Michael F. Goodchild, University of California, Santa Barbara

Alexander H. Levis, George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia

Richard M. Medina, University of Utah, Salt Lake City

Guillermo Sapiro, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina

Cyrus Shahabi, University of Southern California, Los Angeles

Jery R. Stedinger, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York

Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by George M. Hornberger, Vanderbilt University, and Keith C. Clarke, University of California, Santa Barbara, who were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

The committee would like to thank the following individuals who shared their expertise with the committee through presentations and discussions: Richard Berg, MITRE; Nadya Bliss, Arizona State University; Michael Chatman, Pacific Disaster Center; Edward Cope, NGA; Dolores Derrington, MITRE; Peter Douchette, Integrity Applications, Inc.; Kerri Dugan, NGA; David Gauthier, NGA; Matt Hancher, Google; Dirk Helbing, ETH Zurich;

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. From Maps to Models: Augmenting the Nation's Geospatial Intelligence Capabilities. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23650.
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Kevin Krystopolski, NGA; Eric Lance, Arizona State University; David Lawrence, NCAR; Michael Lenihan, NGA; Jon Miller, Arizona State University; Sherry Olsen, MITRE; Peter Overton, MITRE; H. Greg Smith, NGA; Monica Smith, NGA; Tim Stearns, Stanford University; and Dave White, Arizona State University.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. From Maps to Models: Augmenting the Nation's Geospatial Intelligence Capabilities. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23650.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. From Maps to Models: Augmenting the Nation's Geospatial Intelligence Capabilities. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23650.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. From Maps to Models: Augmenting the Nation's Geospatial Intelligence Capabilities. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23650.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. From Maps to Models: Augmenting the Nation's Geospatial Intelligence Capabilities. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23650.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. From Maps to Models: Augmenting the Nation's Geospatial Intelligence Capabilities. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23650.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. From Maps to Models: Augmenting the Nation's Geospatial Intelligence Capabilities. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23650.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. From Maps to Models: Augmenting the Nation's Geospatial Intelligence Capabilities. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23650.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. From Maps to Models: Augmenting the Nation's Geospatial Intelligence Capabilities. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23650.
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Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. From Maps to Models: Augmenting the Nation's Geospatial Intelligence Capabilities. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23650.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. From Maps to Models: Augmenting the Nation's Geospatial Intelligence Capabilities. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23650.
×
Page R9
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. From Maps to Models: Augmenting the Nation's Geospatial Intelligence Capabilities. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23650.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. From Maps to Models: Augmenting the Nation's Geospatial Intelligence Capabilities. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23650.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. From Maps to Models: Augmenting the Nation's Geospatial Intelligence Capabilities. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23650.
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Next: Summary »
From Maps to Models: Augmenting the Nation's Geospatial Intelligence Capabilities Get This Book
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The United States faces numerous, varied, and evolving threats to national security, including terrorism, scarcity and disruption of food and water supplies, extreme weather events, and regional conflicts around the world. Effectively managing these threats requires intelligence that not only assesses what is happening now, but that also anticipates potential future threats. The National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) is responsible for providing geospatial intelligence on other countries—assessing where exactly something is, what it is, and why it is important—in support of national security, disaster response, and humanitarian assistance. NGA’s approach today relies heavily on imagery analysis and mapping, which provide an assessment of current and past conditions. However, augmenting that approach with a strong modeling capability would enable NGA to also anticipate and explore future outcomes.

A model is a simplified representation of a real-world system that is used to extract explainable insights about the system, predict future outcomes, or explore what might happen under plausible what-if scenarios. Such models use data and/or theory to specify inputs (e.g., initial conditions, boundary conditions, and model parameters) to produce an output.

From Maps to Models: Augmenting the Nation's Geospatial Intelligence Capabilities describes the types of models and analytical methods used to understand real-world systems, discusses what would be required to make these models and methods useful for geospatial intelligence, and identifies supporting research and development for NGA. This report provides examples of models that have been used to help answer the sorts of questions NGA might ask, describes how to go about a model-based investigation, and discusses models and methods that are relevant to NGA’s mission.

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