Guidebook for Preparing and Using Airport Design Day Flight Schedules (2016)

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D-1 A p p e n d i x d A key challenge to addressing uncertainty in DDFSs is the level of resources required to first prepare and then apply each DDFS. This makes many traditional methods of evaluating uncer- tainty (alternative scenarios, sensitivity tests, Monte Carlo analyses applied directly to DDFSs) identified in Chapter 8 very costly. The objective of this appendix is to apply the research results from the development of this guidebook to estimate general confidence intervals for each DDFS element. These confidence intervals can be used to run Monte Carlo models of DDFS metrics (average delay, peak period passengers, etc.) without generating a new DDFS for each Monte Carlo simulation. This method does not offer quite the same degree of precision that would result from multiple DDFS and simulation runs but has the virtue of being more cost-effective and practical. This appendix includes an assessment of confidence intervals associated with an analysis of historical schedule data and application of these confidence intervals estimates of facility. As part of the background research to this guidebook, the confidence intervals were calculated from an analysis of historical airline schedule data, in conjunction with planning factors from ACRP Report 25: Airport Passenger Terminal Planning and Design, Volumes 1 and 2 http://onlinepubs. trb.org/onlinepubs/acrp/acrp_rpt_025v1.pdf and airfield simulation analyses. D.1 Confidence Intervals Associated with DDFS Elements Historical airport activity information was used to quantify how much factors such as peak hour percentages, flight times, flight frequency, number of nonstop markets, and load factor were likely to fluctuate from the long-term trend. Peak Periods Table D.1 presents confidence intervals for peak hour passenger aircraft operations, aircraft arrivals, and aircraft departures at large, medium, small, and non-hub airports. The table indi- cates that, at large-hub airports, there is a 98 percent chance that the peak hour operations percentage will be at least 94 percent of the long-term peak hour percentage. For example, at a large-hub airport that currently has 1000 daily passenger operations and 80 peak hour passenger operations, the peak hour percentage would be 8 percent (80/1000). If the 10 year forecast projects 1200 daily operations, and no peak spreading is assumed, the peak hour passenger operations forecast would be 96 (1200 × 8 percent). However, there is some uncertainty associated with this projection since the peak hour percentage varies from year to year. The intent of Table D.1 and subsequent tables is to quantify this uncertainty. Confidence Intervals for DDFS Elements

D-2 Guidebook for preparing and Using Airport design day Flight Schedules Continuing with the example, the large-hub row in Table D.1 indicates that there is a 98 percent chance that there will be at least 90 future peak hour operations (96 × 94 percent = 90). There is a 90 percent chance that there will be at least 92 peak hour operations (96 × 96 percent = 92). As would be expected with a normal probability distribution, there is a 50 percent chance that peak hour operations will be as high as the baseline peak hour forecast (96 × 100 percent). There is a two percent chance that there will be 102 peak hour operations or more (96 × 106 percent). Note that, in this example, it is assumed that the annual forecasts are accurate. As noted ear- lier, the annual forecasts also carry some uncertainty. Therefore, the true peak hour confidence interval is a combination of the probability distribution associated with the annual forecasts and the probability distribution associated with the peak hour percentage. As shown in Table D.1, the probability distribution decreases with airport size. At a large-hub airport, there is an 80 percent degree of confidence (90 percent minus 10 percent, highlighted in green) that the variation in the peak hour will be within plus/minus four percent (96 to 104 per- cent). At a non-hub airport, the same 80 degree of confidence, highlighted in blue, encompasses a variation of plus/minus 13 percent (87 to 113 percent). Tables D.2 and D.3 are similar to Table D.1 except that they show the confidence intervals for the 30 minute and 15 minute peak instead of the 60 minute peak. The 30 minute and 15 min- ute peak distributions were derived from the 60 minute distributions by performing a Monte Carlo distribution of an existing DDFS and generating ratios of the 15 and 30 minute mean and standard deviations to the 60 minute mean and standard deviations. Activity levels during small time intervals tend to be more volatile than activity levels during larger time intervals. Therefore, the confidence intervals for the 30 minute and 15 minute peaks tend to be wider than for the 60 minute peaks. Tables D.4 through D.6 are similar to Tables D.1 through D.3 but show scheduled seat arrivals and departures instead of aircraft operations. Seat arrival and departure distributions are useful because 98% 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% 2% Large Hubs 94% 95% 96% 98% 100% 102% 104% 105% 106% Medium Hubs 91% 92% 94% 97% 100% 103% 106% 108% 109% Small Hubs 87% 89% 91% 96% 100% 104% 109% 111% 113% Non Hubs 79% 83% 87% 93% 100% 107% 113% 117% 121% Large Hubs 92% 93% 95% 97% 100% 103% 105% 107% 108% Medium Hubs 88% 90% 92% 96% 100% 104% 108% 110% 112% Small Hubs 84% 87% 90% 95% 100% 105% 110% 113% 116% Non Hubs 70% 75% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 125% 130% Large Hubs 92% 94% 95% 97% 100% 103% 105% 106% 108% Medium Hubs 89% 91% 93% 96% 100% 104% 107% 109% 111% Small Hubs 90% 92% 94% 97% 100% 103% 106% 108% 110% Non Hubs 85% 87% 90% 95% 100% 105% 110% 113% 115% Peak Hour Aircra Departures Variation in Peak Hour Operaons by Confidence Interval Peak Hour Aircra Operaons Peak Hour Aircra Arrivals Table D.1. Peak hour operations by confidence interval.

Confidence intervals for ddFS elements D-3 98% 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% 2% Large Hubs 92% 93% 95% 97% 100% 103% 105% 107% 108% Medium Hubs 87% 89% 91% 95% 100% 105% 109% 111% 113% Small Hubs 81% 84% 88% 94% 100% 106% 112% 116% 119% Non Hubs 70% 75% 81% 90% 100% 110% 119% 125% 130% Large Hubs 91% 92% 94% 97% 100% 103% 106% 108% 109% Medium Hubs 86% 88% 91% 95% 100% 105% 109% 112% 114% Small Hubs 81% 85% 88% 94% 100% 106% 112% 115% 119% Non Hubs 65% 71% 77% 88% 100% 112% 123% 129% 135% Large Hubs 86% 88% 91% 95% 100% 105% 109% 112% 114% Medium Hubs 80% 84% 87% 93% 100% 107% 113% 116% 120% Small Hubs 83% 85% 89% 94% 100% 106% 111% 115% 117% Non Hubs 72% 77% 82% 91% 100% 109% 118% 123% 128% Peak 30Minute Aircraft Departures Variation in Peak 30Minute Operations by Confidence Interval Peak 30Minute Aircraft Operations Peak 30Minute Aircra Arrivals Table D.2. Peak 30 minute operations by confidence interval. 98% 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% 2% Large Hubs 87% 90% 92% 96% 100% 104% 108% 110% 113% Medium Hubs 79% 83% 87% 93% 100% 107% 113% 117% 121% Small Hubs 70% 75% 81% 90% 100% 110% 119% 125% 130% Non Hubs 53% 61% 70% 84% 100% 116% 130% 139% 147% Large Hubs 86% 89% 91% 95% 100% 105% 109% 111% 114% Medium Hubs 79% 82% 86% 93% 100% 107% 114% 118% 121% Small Hubs 72% 77% 82% 91% 100% 109% 118% 123% 128% Non Hubs 47% 56% 66% 82% 100% 118% 134% 144% 153% Large Hubs 78% 81% 85% 92% 100% 108% 115% 119% 122% Medium Hubs 68% 73% 79% 89% 100% 111% 121% 127% 132% Small Hubs 72% 76% 82% 90% 100% 110% 118% 124% 128% Non Hubs 55% 62% 71% 85% 100% 115% 129% 138% 145% Peak 15Minute Aircraft Departures Variation in Peak 15Minute Operations by Confidence Interval Peak 15Minute Aircraft Operations Peak 15Minute Aircra Arrivals Table D.3. Peak 15 minute operations by confidence interval.

D-4 Guidebook for preparing and Using Airport design day Flight Schedules 98% 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% 2% Large Hubs 92% 93% 95% 97% 100% 103% 105% 107% 108% Medium Hubs 90% 91% 93% 96% 100% 104% 107% 109% 110% Small Hubs 85% 87% 90% 95% 100% 105% 110% 113% 115% Non Hubs 77% 81% 85% 92% 100% 108% 115% 119% 123% Large Hubs 92% 94% 95% 97% 100% 103% 105% 106% 108% Medium Hubs 87% 89% 91% 95% 100% 105% 109% 111% 113% Small Hubs 81% 85% 88% 94% 100% 106% 112% 115% 119% Non Hubs 66% 71% 78% 88% 100% 112% 122% 129% 134% Large Hubs 93% 94% 95% 98% 100% 102% 105% 106% 107% Medium Hubs 88% 90% 92% 96% 100% 104% 108% 110% 112% Small Hubs 89% 91% 93% 96% 100% 104% 107% 109% 111% Non Hubs 83% 86% 89% 94% 100% 106% 111% 114% 117% Peak Hour Scheduled Seat Departures Variation in Peak Hour Scheduled Seats by Confidence Interval Peak Hour Scheduled Seats Peak Hour Scheduled Seat Arrivals Table D.4. Peak hour scheduled seats by confidence interval. 98% 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% 2% Large Hubs 88% 90% 92% 96% 100% 104% 108% 110% 112% Medium Hubs 85% 87% 90% 95% 100% 105% 110% 113% 115% Small Hubs 78% 82% 86% 93% 100% 107% 114% 118% 122% Non Hubs 66% 72% 78% 89% 100% 111% 122% 128% 134% Large Hubs 91% 93% 94% 97% 100% 103% 106% 107% 109% Medium Hubs 84% 87% 90% 95% 100% 105% 110% 113% 116% Small Hubs 78% 82% 86% 93% 100% 107% 114% 118% 122% Non Hubs 60% 67% 74% 86% 100% 114% 126% 133% 140% Large Hubs 87% 89% 91% 95% 100% 105% 109% 111% 113% Medium Hubs 79% 82% 86% 93% 100% 107% 114% 118% 121% Small Hubs 80% 83% 87% 93% 100% 107% 113% 117% 120% Non Hubs 69% 74% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 126% 131% Peak 30Minute Scheduled Seat Departures Variation in Peak 30Minute Scheduled Seats by Confidence Interval Peak 30Minute Scheduled Seats Peak 30Minute Scheduled Seat Arrivals Table D.5. Peak 30 minute seats by confidence interval.

Confidence intervals for ddFS elements D-5 they can serve as proxy for passenger distributions. Empirical data on passenger peaks are generally not available, and therefore cannot be used to directly estimate peak hour passenger distributions. The scheduled seat distributions have patterns that are similar to the passenger operations distributions but with slightly broader confidence intervals. This suggests that scheduled seat peaks, and associated passenger peaks, are slightly more volatile than passenger aircraft opera- tion peaks. Flight Times Table D.7 is based on flight time analyses from historical airline schedule data. The Table shows the degree to which flight times to individual markets are likely to vary over time. The analysis was 98% 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% 2% Large Hubs 81% 84% 88% 94% 100% 106% 112% 116% 119% Medium Hubs 76% 80% 85% 92% 100% 108% 115% 120% 124% Small Hubs 66% 72% 78% 88% 100% 112% 122% 128% 134% Non Hubs 47% 56% 66% 82% 100% 118% 134% 144% 153% Large Hubs 87% 89% 91% 96% 100% 104% 109% 111% 113% Medium Hubs 77% 81% 85% 92% 100% 108% 115% 119% 123% Small Hubs 68% 73% 79% 89% 100% 111% 121% 127% 132% Non Hubs 40% 50% 61% 80% 100% 120% 139% 150% 160% Large Hubs 78% 82% 86% 93% 100% 107% 114% 118% 122% Medium Hubs 65% 71% 78% 88% 100% 112% 122% 129% 135% Small Hubs 67% 73% 79% 89% 100% 111% 121% 127% 133% Non Hubs 50% 58% 67% 83% 100% 117% 133% 142% 150% Peak 15Minute Scheduled Seat Departures Variation in 15Minute Scheduled Seats by Confidence Interval Peak 15Minute Scheduled Seats Peak 15Minute Scheduled Seat Arrivals Table D.6. Peak 15 minute seats by confidence interval. 50% 25% 10% 5% 2.5% Atlanta First Flight 9.5 14.9 19.8 22.7 25.2 Atlanta Last Flight 9.0 14.4 19.3 22.2 24.7 PDX First Flight 12.0 22.8 32.6 38.5 43.7 PDX Last Flight 9.0 19.2 28.3 33.9 38.7 PVD First Flight 18.0 30.9 42.5 49.5 55.6 PVD Last Flight 15.0 26.5 36.9 43.2 48.7 SGF First Flight 9.0 13.1 16.9 19.2 21.4 SGF Last Flight 8.0 12.8 17.2 20.0 22.4 Variation of Change in Flight Time by Confidence Interval (min.) Table D.7. Change in flight times by confidence interval.

D-6 Guidebook for preparing and Using Airport design day Flight Schedules limited to the first and last flight of the day to markets in which the number of daily flights did not change. Flight times to markets where the number of flights do change are likely to vary more significantly. Appendix Q: New Flight Analysis in ACRP WOD 14 (technical report accompanying ACRP Report 82) http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/acrp/acrp_w014.pdf provides more detail of the impact of new additional frequencies on flight times. As shown from the examples in Table D.7, there appears to be at least a 50 percent chance that flight times to specific markets will vary by 8 minutes or more, and there is a 10 percent chance that they could vary as much 40 minutes depending on the airport. The variation of flight times is important to the construction of DDFSs. Often, flight times in future DDFSs need to be changed to accommodate greater turnaround times (when the aircraft gauge increases) or a new flight pairing. The ranges in Table D.7 can provide a rough guide as to how much these times can be changed and still be consistent with current airport scheduling patterns. Flight Frequency The confidence intervals in Table D.8 are based on a flight frequency analysis of histori- cal airline schedule data. The table shows the extent to which the number of daily flights to individual markets is likely to change over a 10 year period. The confidence intervals are quite broad, suggesting substantial volatility in flight frequency especially at non-hub airports. Note that the analysis was performed on data from 2005 to 2014, when there was substantial aircraft up-gauging accompanied by reduced flight frequency, in many small markets. There- fore, the data in Table D.8 may represent a secular trend rather than true random variation. It is possible that, had the analysis been performed during a more stable period in the airline industry, the confidence intervals would not be as broad. Like the variation in flight times, the frequency of flights by market is important to the con- struction of DDFSs. When adding flights, the DDFS preparer must choose a balance between increasing frequencies to existing markets and introducing flights from new nonstop markets. The distributions in Table D.8 provide rough controls on the extent to which frequencies in existing markets can be changed. Load Factor Table D.9 provides confidence intervals for average load factors by market for large, medium, small, and non-hubs. The confidence intervals are relatively broad even for large airports. Two factors should be considered prior to applying these confidence intervals in the preparation or evaluation of DDFSs. 98% 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% 2% Large Hubs 73% 78% 83% 91% 100% 109% 117% 122% 127% Medium Hubs 51% 59% 68% 83% 100% 117% 132% 141% 149% Small Hubs 54% 62% 70% 85% 100% 115% 130% 138% 146% Non Hubs 22% 35% 50% 74% 100% 126% 150% 165% 178% Variation in Individual Market Flight Frequencies by Confidence Interval Table D.8. Flights per market by confidence interval.

Confidence intervals for ddFS elements D-7 First the ranges include month-by-month variation in addition to year-by-year variation. If a future DDFS is based on a peak month that doesn’t change, a more appropriate confidence interval would be based on data from just that month, which would be expected to exhibit less variation. Also, the variation in load factor has decreased over the last 10 years as airlines have reduced or eliminated service to low performing markets. Consequently, it is probable that load factor confidence intervals developed in future years will show less variation than those exhibited in Table C.9. Table D.10 is similar to Table D.9 except that it shows load factor confidence intervals by airline rather than by market. As with the Table D.9 analysis, the cautions regarding seasonal variations and long-term reductions in the degree of variation apply. D.2 Impact of DDFS Elements on Facility Requirements This section examines the application of the confidence intervals earlier in this appen- dix upon facility requirements. Impacts on airfield and terminal/landside requirements are described. Airfield Analysis Table D.11 combines the peak hour confidence interval developed in Table C.1 together with the evaluation of the peak hour impact on delay performed as part of the research for this guide- book. The table shows that, in this instance, there is a 96 percent chance (98 percent - 2 percent) that the average aircraft delay per operation would vary plus/minus 0.07 minutes (4 seconds) or less from the baseline estimate as a result of a variation in the peak hour estimate. Note that these results are specific to the single airport that was tested, and that other airports may exhibit a different degree of variation. 98% 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% 2% Large Hubs 69.4% 71.4% 73.6% 77.3% 81.4% 85.5% 89.2% 91.4% 93.4% Medium Hubs 64.6% 66.8% 69.3% 73.6% 78.3% 83.0% 87.3% 89.8% 92.0% Small Hubs 62.6% 64.9% 67.5% 71.8% 76.7% 81.6% 85.9% 88.5% 90.8% Non Hubs 59.9% 62.4% 65.3% 70.2% 75.6% 81.0% 85.9% 88.8% 91.3% Variation in Individual Market Load Factors by Confidence Interval Table D.9. Average load factor by confidence interval (markets). 98% 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% 2% Large Hubs 70.4% 72.2% 74.2% 77.6% 81.4% 85.2% 88.6% 90.6% 92.4% Medium Hubs 65.6% 67.6% 70.0% 73.9% 78.3% 82.7% 86.6% 89.0% 91.0% Small Hubs 63.4% 65.5% 68.0% 72.1% 76.7% 81.3% 85.4% 87.9% 90.0% Non Hubs 60.7% 63.1% 65.9% 70.5% 75.6% 80.7% 85.3% 88.1% 90.5% Variation in Individual Carrier Load Factors by Confidence Interval Table D.10. Average load factor by confidence interval (airlines).

D-8 Guidebook for preparing and Using Airport design day Flight Schedules Terminal and Landside Analysis Tables D.12 through D.19 show how the terminal and landside facility requirements are likely to vary depending on the confidence intervals developed earlier in this appendix. Table D.12 provides the confidence intervals for ticket position counters for large, medium, small, and non-hub airports. Included are examples of ticket counter requirements. In this instance, the table shows that if a large-hub airport has a requirement for 25 ticket counters, based on the variation in peak 30-minute departing seats (proxy for passenger originations) there is a 10 percent chance that the airport would need at least 27 ticket counter positions and a 5 percent chance that it would need at least 28 ticket counter positions. Note that the planning factors used to develop facilities requirements are often based on long-term empirical observations of what works. Most airport users or operators would not consider a facility that meets demand only 50 percent of time as working. Therefore, it is likely that most planning factors implicitly include a safety margin that accounts for some of the varia- tion detailed in these tables. To continue with the example, if a planner takes the baseline facility requirement (25 counter positions), assumes it accounts for none of the variation in peaking, and then increases the requirement to 28 to ensure that the facility operates effectively 95 percent of the time during peak periods, the facility would likely be overdesigned. 98% 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% 2% Peak Hour Confidence Interval 94% 95% 96% 98% 100% 102% 104% 105% 106% Esmated Variation in Delay (min.) Total (0.07) (0.06) (0.05) (0.03) 0.03 0.05 0.06 0.07 Sources: Table D.1. Variation in Peak Hour Operations by Confidence Interval Table D.11. Impact of peak hour operations on delay estimates. Example Requirement 98% 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% 2% Large Hubs 87% 89% 91% 95% 100% 105% 109% 111% 113% Medium Hubs 79% 82% 86% 93% 100% 107% 114% 118% 121% Small Hubs 80% 83% 87% 93% 100% 107% 113% 117% 120% Non Hubs 69% 74% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 126% 131% Sample Counter Requirements Large Hubs 25 22 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 28 Medium Hubs 15 12 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 18 Small Hubs 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 Non Hubs 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 Note: Based on peak 30minute originations. Sources: Table D.5. Variation in Counter Posion Requirements by Confidence Interval Table D.12. Variation in counter position requirements by airport size.

Confidence intervals for ddFS elements D-9 Example Requirement 98% 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% 2% Large Hubs 87% 89% 91% 95% 100% 105% 109% 111% 113% Medium Hubs 79% 82% 86% 93% 100% 107% 114% 118% 121% Small Hubs 80% 83% 87% 93% 100% 107% 113% 117% 120% Non Hubs 69% 74% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 126% 131% Sample Kiosk Requirements Large Hubs 20 17 18 18 19 20 21 22 22 23 Medium Hubs 12 9 10 10 11 12 13 14 14 15 Small Hubs 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 Non Hubs 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 Note: Based on peak 30minute originations. Sources: Table D.5. Variation in Kiosk Counter Requirements by Confidence Interval Table D.13. Variation in kiosk requirements by airport size. Example Requirement 98% 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% 2% Large Hubs 87% 89% 91% 95% 100% 105% 109% 111% 113% Medium Hubs 79% 82% 86% 93% 100% 107% 114% 118% 121% Small Hubs 80% 83% 87% 93% 100% 107% 113% 117% 120% Non Hubs 69% 74% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 126% 131% Sample Curbside Counter Requirements Large Hubs 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 Medium Hubs 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 Small Hubs 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 Non Hubs 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 Note: Based on peak 30minute originations. Sources: Table D.5. Variation in Curbside Counter Requirements by Confidence Interval Table D.14. Variation in curbside counter positions by airport size.

D-10 Guidebook for preparing and Using Airport design day Flight Schedules Example Requirement (square feet) 98% 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% 2% Large Hubs 93% 94% 95% 98% 100% 102% 105% 106% 107% Medium Hubs 88% 90% 92% 96% 100% 104% 108% 110% 112% Small Hubs 89% 91% 93% 96% 100% 104% 107% 109% 111% Non Hubs 83% 86% 89% 94% 100% 106% 111% 114% 117% Sample Baggage Screening Space Requirements Large Hubs 10000 9,265 9,387 9,525 9,751 10,000 10,249 10,475 10,613 10,735 Medium Hubs 6000 5,297 5,413 5,545 5,762 6,000 6,238 6,455 6,587 6,704 Small Hubs 3000 2,669 2,724 2,786 2,888 3,000 3,112 3,214 3,276 3,331 Non Hubs 1500 1,245 1,287 1,335 1,414 1,500 1,586 1,665 1,713 1,755 Note: Based on peak 60minute originations. Sources: Table D.4. Variation in Baggage Screening Space Requirements by Confidence Interval Table D.15. Variation in baggage screening space requirements by airport size. Example Requirement 98% 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% 2% Large Hubs 87% 89% 91% 95% 100% 105% 109% 111% 113% Medium Hubs 79% 82% 86% 93% 100% 107% 114% 118% 121% Small Hubs 80% 83% 87% 93% 100% 107% 113% 117% 120% Non Hubs 69% 74% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 126% 131% Sample Required Screening lanes Large Hubs 10 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 Medium Hubs 7 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 Small Hubs 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 Non Hubs 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 Note: Based on peak 30minute originations. Sources: Table D.5. Variation in Required Screening Lanes by Confidence Interval Table D.16. Variation in required screening lanes by airport size.

Confidence intervals for ddFS elements D-11 Example Requirement (square feet) 98% 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% 2% Large Hubs 87% 89% 91% 95% 100% 105% 109% 111% 113% Medium Hubs 79% 82% 86% 93% 100% 107% 114% 118% 121% Small Hubs 80% 83% 87% 93% 100% 107% 113% 117% 120% Non Hubs 69% 74% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 126% 131% Sample Required Screening lanes Large Hubs 10000 8,662 8,883 9,134 9,547 10,000 10,453 10,866 11,117 11,338 Medium Hubs 7000 5,505 5,753 6,033 6,494 7,000 7,506 7,967 8,247 8,495 Small Hubs 3000 2,398 2,497 2,610 2,796 3,000 3,204 3,390 3,503 3,602 Non Hubs 2000 1,381 1,483 1,600 1,791 2,000 2,209 2,400 2,517 2,619 Note: Based on peak 30minute originations. Sources: Table D.5. Variation in Screening Space Requirement by Confidence Interval Table D.17. Variation in screening space requirements by airport size. Example Requirement (feet) 98% 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% 2% Large Hubs 87% 89% 91% 96% 100% 104% 109% 111% 113% Medium Hubs 77% 81% 85% 92% 100% 108% 115% 119% 123% Small Hubs 68% 73% 79% 89% 100% 111% 121% 127% 132% Non Hubs 40% 50% 61% 80% 100% 120% 139% 150% 160% Sample Required Screening lanes Large Hubs 1000 867 889 914 955 1,000 1,045 1,086 1,111 1,133 Medium Hubs 600 461 484 510 553 600 647 690 716 739 Small Hubs 300 203 219 238 267 300 333 362 381 397 Non Hubs 150 61 75 92 120 150 180 208 225 239 Note: Based on peak 15minute terminations. Sources: Table D.6. Variation in Baggage Claim Frontage Requirements by Confidence Interval Table D.18. Variation in baggage claim frontage requirements by airport size.

D-12 Guidebook for preparing and Using Airport design day Flight Schedules Example Requirement (length in feet) 98% 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% 2% Large Hubs 92% 93% 95% 97% 100% 103% 105% 107% 108% Medium Hubs 90% 91% 93% 96% 100% 104% 107% 109% 110% Small Hubs 85% 87% 90% 95% 100% 105% 110% 113% 115% Non Hubs 77% 81% 85% 92% 100% 108% 115% 119% 123% Sample Curbside Requirement Large Hubs 3000 2,754 2,795 2,841 2,917 3,000 3,083 3,159 3,205 3,246 Medium Hubs 1500 1,343 1,369 1,398 1,447 1,500 1,553 1,602 1,631 1,657 Small Hubs 1000 850 875 903 949 1,000 1,051 1,097 1,125 1,150 Non Hubs 500 384 403 425 461 500 539 575 597 616 Note: Based on peak 60 minute originaons and terminaons. Sources: Table D.4. Variaon in Curbside Length Requirements by Confidence Interval Table D.19. Variation in curbside requirements by airport size.