National Academies Press: OpenBook
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Development of a NOx Chemistry Module for EDMS/AEDT to Predict NO2 Concentrations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24706.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Development of a NOx Chemistry Module for EDMS/AEDT to Predict NO2 Concentrations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24706.
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Page iii
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Development of a NOx Chemistry Module for EDMS/AEDT to Predict NO2 Concentrations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24706.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Development of a NOx Chemistry Module for EDMS/AEDT to Predict NO2 Concentrations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24706.
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Page v
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Development of a NOx Chemistry Module for EDMS/AEDT to Predict NO2 Concentrations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24706.
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ACKNOWLED This work was Research Prog Sciences, Eng COPYRIGHT I Authors herein persons who o Cooperative R purposes. Per FMCSA, FRA, product, metho uses will give a request permis DISCLAIMER The opinions a are not necess or the program The informatio edited by TRB Deve EDM GMENT sponsored by t ram (ACRP), w ineering, and M NFORMATION are responsibl wn the copyrigh esearch Progra mission is give FTA, Office of d, or practice. ppropriate ack sion from CRP nd conclusions arily those of th sponsors. n contained in t . lopmen S/AEDT he Federal Avia hich is adminis edicine. e for the authen t to any previo ms (CRP) gran n with the unde the Assistant Se It is expected th nowledgment o . expressed or im e Transportatio his document w AC Web-Only t of a N to Pre Mich KB Environm St. Pe tion Administra tered by the Tra ticity of their m usly published o ts permission to rstanding that n cretary for Res at those reprod f the source of a plied in this re n Research Bo as taken direct RP Docume Ox Che dict NO ael Kenney ental Scien tersburg, F tion (FAA). It w nsportation Re aterials and for r copyrighted m reproduce ma one of the mate earch and Tec ucing the mate ny reprinted or port are those o ard; the Nation ly from the subm nt 30: mistry M 2 Conc ces, Inc. L Contrac as conducted t search Board ( obtaining writte aterial used he terial in this pub rial will be used hnology, PHMS rial in this docu reproduced ma f the researche al Academies o ission of the a odule entratio tor’s Final Rep hrough the Airp TRB) of the Na n permissions f rein. lication for clas to imply TRB, A, or TDC endo ment for educat terial. For oth rs who perform f Sciences, Eng uthor(s). This m for ns ort for ACRP Pr Submitted Dece ort Cooperative tional Academie rom publishers sroom and not AASHTO, FAA rsement of a p ional and not-fo er uses of the m ed the researc ineering, and M aterial has not oject 02-43 mber 2016 s of or -for-profit , FHWA, articular r-profit aterial, h. They edicine; been

The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, non- governmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.national-academies.org. The Transportation Research Board is one of seven major programs of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. The mission of the Transportation Research Board is to increase the benefits that transportation contributes to society by providing leadership in transportation innovation and progress through research and information exchange, conducted within a setting that is objective, interdisciplinary, and multimodal. The Board’s varied committees, task forces, and panels annually engage about 7,000 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. The program is supported by state transportation departments, federal agencies including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transportation, and other organizations and individuals interested in the development of transportation. Learn more about the Transportation Research Board at www.TRB.org.

iv  Executive Summary  The ACRP 02-43 Research Project: Development of a NOx Chemistry Module for EDMS/AEDT to Predict NO2 Concentrations was undertaken due to concern that existing methods used to predict NO2 concentrations at airports may be inaccurate. The research project was aimed at three primary objectives: ACRP 02‐43 Objectives   Assess Accuracy - Assess the accuracy of the NOx emissions and speciation methods used in FAA’s EDMS/AEDT models and the U.S. EPA AERMOD model to predict NO2 concentrations near airports;  Alternative Methods - Develop and assess alternative methods (including at least one involving the NO, NO2, and O3 “photostationary state”; and  Preferred Method - From the work to assess alternative methods, produce a Preferred Method for predicting NO2 concentrations resulting from airport emissions. The products of the Research: (i.) a Final Report entitled Development of NOx Chemistry Module for EDMS/AEDT to Predict NO2 Concentrations, (ii.) a Preferred Method and (iii.) a computer module for the Preferred Method will help to ensure that the underlying mechanics and predictive accuracies of FAA’s EDMS/AEDT and EPA’s AERMOD are appropriate for airports and are as accurate as possible. Key Targets  The Research goals are also focused on several “Key” targets:  Reasonable Data Requirements  - Reasonable input data requirements should (i.) allow for easier use of the model by modelers and (ii.) more frequent and consistent use of the method.  Technically Defensible Methodology - The Preferred Method should be technically defensible and supported with back-up data and information demonstrating its applicability and accuracy.  Computational Requirements - The Preferred Method should be computationally streamlined so that software and hardware requirements and runtimes are appropriate by most users.  Reasonable Accuracy - The Preferred Method should be as accurate as possible and produce results that are comparable to other similar modeling applications.  Compatible with EDMS/AEDT/AERMOD - The Preferred Method should be either adoptable within, or work in conjunction with, AERMOD and in the EDMS/AEDT models. Importantly, the Research is primarily focused on modeling of short-term (i.e., one-hour) NO2 concentrations, commensurate with the promulgation of the new NAAQS for this pollutant. Preferred Method  In support of the Research, a substantial number and wide array of models and methods were analyzed using monitor-to-model and model-to-model comparisons of airport-related NOx/NO2 ratios and the resultant NO2 concentrations. Based upon the outcomes of the Research, a recommended Preferred Method for simulating the NO2/NOx formation and dispersion characteristics was developed as a module for use in the EDMS/AEDT-AERMOD software package. This module is called the ARM2-Airport Module and the computer software for its adoption into EDMS/AEDT-AERMOD is included as part of the Research. Additional Research  During the course of this Research, a number of needs, or “gaps,” were identified for potential ACRP research, with specific recommendations for further advancing the model simulation of how airport- related NOx is dispersed from airports and the transition mechanisms by which NO2 is formed in airport environs.

v  Table of Contents  Section  Page    1.0 Introduction and Purpose ........................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Research Objectives ................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Research Program .................................................................................................... 1 1.3 Preferred Method Key Targets ................................................................................ 2 2.0 Background Information ....................................................................................................... 3 2.1 Emission Indices ...................................................................................................... 3 2.2 Emission Ratios ....................................................................................................... 4 2.3 Plume Chemistry ...................................................................................................... 5 2.4 Airport Dispersion Modeling ................................................................................... 6 3.0 Assessments of Models/Methods .......................................................................................... 6 3.1 EDMS/AEDT and AERMOD.................................................................................. 7 3.2 Alternative Models and Methods ............................................................................. 8 3.3 Model/Method Performance Characteristics ........................................................... 9 3.4 Performance Characteristics of AERMOD, ARM, OLM and PVMRM ................. 15 4.0 Modeled vs Measured NO2 Data .......................................................................................... 16 4.1 Case-Study Airports ................................................................................................. 16 4.2 Modeling Methodology ........................................................................................... 17 4.3 Statistical Analyses .................................................................................................. 17 4.4 Case-Study Results .................................................................................................. 25 5.0 Modeled vs Modeled NO2 Comparisons .............................................................................. 26 6.0 NOx Chemistry Methods (including the Photostationary State) ........................................... 29 6.1 Method 1 (Simple Regression-Unconstrained and Constrained) ............................ 32 6.2 Method 2 (Multivariable Regression) Equation ..................................................... 41 6.3 Method 3 (Photostationary State), Equation 1 (Analytically-derived) and 2 (Adjusted) ............................................................................................................... 49 6.4 Preferred Method Recommendation ........................................................................ 54 7.0 Module Development............................................................................................................ 56 8.0 Independent Technical Review ............................................................................................. 57 8.1 The Reviewers ......................................................................................................... 57 8.2 The Independent Technical Review Process ........................................................... 58 8.3 Results of the Independent Technical Review ......................................................... 58 8.4 Conclusion of the Independent Technical Review .................................................. 59 9.0 Future Research Needs ......................................................................................................... 59

vi  Table of Contents (cont.)    List of Tables Table                                 Page    1 EDMS/AEDT Emission Indices for NOx ............................................................................. 3 2 NO2/NOx Emission Ratios for Airport Emission Sources .................................................... 4 3 Overview of Model Properties and Characteristics .............................................................. 13 4 Overview and Comparison of AERMOD and Alternative Model Assets and Limitations .. 14 5 Air Monitoring Time Periods ................................................................................................ 17 6 RHC: Monitored NO2 vs. Modeled NO2 (ppb): ADL ........................................................... 24 7 Mean Squared Error (ppb): ADL .......................................................................................... 25 8 NO2/NOx Methods ................................................................................................................ 30 9 Selected Equations for Comparisons of Modeled and Measured NO2/NOx Values ............. 31 Appendices  Appendix                               Page    A. Interim Report (Including References) ............................................................................... A1 B. Air Monitoring Data Analyses ............................................................................................. B1 C. Modeled vs. Monitored Data Analyses ................................................................................ C1

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TRB's Airport Cooperative Research Program (ACRP) Web-Only Document 30: Development of a NOx Chemistry Module for EDMS/AEDT to Predict NO2 Concentrations explores the methods available for predicting NO2 concentrations at airports. The research project includes a final report, preferred method for employing a module, and a computer model code for the preferred method.

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