Report 2–New Systems for Measuring Crime
Panel on Modernizing the Nation’s Crime Statistics
Janet L. Lauritsen and Daniel L. Cork, Editors
Committee on National Statistics
Committee on Law and Justice
Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education
A Consensus Study Report of
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The project that is the subject of this report was supported by the Bureau of Justice Statistics, Office of Justice Programs, and the Federal Bureau of Investigation, via a grant from the National Science Foundation (No. SES-1024012) that permits a consortium of federal agencies to support the work of the Committee on National Statistics. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-47261-6
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-47261-X
Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/25035
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Copyright 2018 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
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Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. (2018). Modernizing Crime Statistics—Report 2: New Systems for Measuring Crime. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/25035.
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PANEL ON MODERNIZING THE NATION’S CRIME STATISTICS
JANET L. LAURITSEN,* (Chair), Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice, University of Missouri–St. Louis
DANIEL B. BIBEL, Crime Reporting Unit, Massachusetts State Police, Maynard (retired)
JONATHAN P. CAULKINS, Heinz College of Information Systems and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University
KIM ENGLISH, Division of Criminal Justice, Colorado Department of Public Safety
ROBERT M. GOERGE, Chapin Hall at the University of Chicago
NOLA M. JOYCE, Philadelphia Police Department (retired)
DAVID MCDOWALL, Violence Research Group, University at Albany, State University of New York
JENNIFER H. MADANS, National Center for Health Statistics
MICHAEL D. MALTZ, Department of Criminology, Law, and Justice, University of Illinois at Chicago (emeritus) and Criminal Justice Research Center, Ohio State University
MICHAEL C. MILLER, Coral Gables Police Department, Florida
JAMES J. NOLAN, III, Department of Sociology and Anthropology, West Virginia University
AMY O’HARA, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, Stanford University
JOHN V. PEPPER, Department of Economics, University of Virginia
ALEX R. PIQUERO, School of Economic, Political, and Policy Sciences, University of Texas at Dallas
JEFFREY L. SEDGWICK,† Justice Research and Statistics Association, Washington, DC
JAMES P. LYNCH, Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice, University of Maryland (Consultant to the panel)
PAUL K. WORMELI, Wormeli Consulting, LLC, Ashburn, Virginia (Consultant to the panel and liaison from Committee on Law and Justice)
DANIEL L. CORK, Study Director
SETH HAUSER, Senior Program Officer (February–October 2015)
EDWARD SPAR, Senior Program Officer (through September 2014)
MICHAEL SIRI, Program Associate
JORDYN WHITE, Program Officer
* Served as member of the panel from formation through December 8, 2014.
† Served as chair of the panel from formation through December 8, 2014, following appointment as executive director of the Justice Research and Statistics Association.
COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS 2018
ROBERT M. GROVES (Chair), Office of the Provost, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, and Department of Sociology, Georgetown University
FRANCINE BLAU, Department of Economics, Cornell University
MARY ELLEN BOCK, Department of Statistics, Purdue University
ANNE C. CASE, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University
MICHAEL CHERNEW, Department of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School
JANET CURRIE, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University
DONALD A. DILLMAN, Department of Sociology, Washington State University
CONSTANTINE GATSONIS, Center for Statistical Sciences, Brown University
JAMES S. HOUSE, Survey Research Center, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
THOMAS L. MESENBOURG, Retired; formerly, U.S. Census Bureau
SARAH M. NUSSER, Department of Statistics, Center for Survey Statistics and Methodology, Iowa State University
COLM A. O’MUIRCHEARTAIGH, Harris School of Public Policy Studies, University of Chicago, and NORC at the University of Chicago
JEROME P. REITER, Department of Statistical Science, Duke University
ROBERTO RIGOBON, Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
JUDITH A. SELTZER, Department of Sociology, University of California, Los Angeles
EDWARD H. SHORTLIFFE, Columbia University and Arizona State University
BRIAN HARRIS-KOJETIN, Director
CONSTANCE F. CITRO, Senior Scholar
COMMITTEE ON LAW AND JUSTICE 2018
ROBERT D. CRUTCHFIELD (Chair), Department of Sociology, University of Washington (emeritus)
SALLY S. SIMPSON (Vice-chair), Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice, University of Maryland
PREETI CHAUHAN, John Jay College of Criminal Justice
KIMBERLÉ W. CRENSHAW, School of Law, University of California, Los Angeles
JOHN J. DONOHUE III, Stanford Law School, Stanford University
MARK S. JOHNSON, Department of Community and Family Medicine, Howard University
MARK A.R. KLEIMAN, Marron Institute of Urban Management, New York University
JAMES P. LYNCH, Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice, University of Maryland
KAREN MATHIS, Institute for the Advancement of the American Legal System, University of Denver
DANIEL S. NAGIN, H. John Heinz III College of Public Policy and Information Systems, Carnegie Mellon University
ANNE MORRISON PIEHL, Department of Economics and Program in Criminal Justice, Rutgers University
STEVEN RAPHAEL, Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley
LAURIE O. ROBINSON, Department of Criminology, Law, and Society, George Mason University
CYNTHIA RUDIN, Departments of Computer Science and Electrical and Computer Engineering and Prediction Analysis Lab, Duke University
SUSAN B. SORENSON, School of Social Policy and Practice, University of Pennsylvania
LINDA A. TEPLIN, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University
HEATHER ANN THOMPSON, Department of History, University of Michigan
BRUCE WESTERN, Department of Sociology, Harvard University
KATHI GRASSO, Director
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THE PANEL ON MODERNIZING THE NATION’S CRIME STATISTICS is pleased to submit this second and final report on modernizing the collection of data on crime in the United States. Of necessity, because most of the data gathering for this final report took place during preparation of our first report, these acknowledgments are virtually identical to those in Report 1. We trust that it will be understood that the repetition is not meant to diminish our appreciation of the time and talent of all those who have contributed to the panel’s work.
Both of our sponsoring agencies—the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) and the Criminal Justice Information Services (CJIS) Division of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI)—committed considerable resources and attention to our study, for which we are greatly appreciative. Former BJS director William Sabol, deputy director Gerard Ramker, and deputy and acting director Jeri Mulrow provided constant support; we owe much to senior statistical advisor Allen Beck for his discussions of his participation with the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) expert work group on crime classification; and we thank the other BJS staff who gave unyieldingly of their time, including Howard Snyder, Michael Planty, and Erica Smith. At FBI/CJIS, Amy Blasher provided valuable assistance and liaison to our panel as Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program manager, Crime Statistics Management unit chief, and UCR Modernization manager; Samuel Berhanu provided updates to the panel after succeeding Blasher as Crime Statistics Management unit chief. Michelle Klimt was instrumental in the creation of this project during her time as chief of the CJIS Law Enforcement Support Section, and John Derbas has continued to provide assistance. We have also benefited from extensive interaction with statisticians James Noonan and Cynthia Barnett-Ryan, from the engagement of Randall Thysse in our work, and from a discussion with executive assistant director for the Science and Technology Branch Amy Hess
during her tenure in that position. The U.S. Office of Management and Budget provided the essential encouragement for BJS and FBI to jointly sponsor this review; we are particularly grateful to Rochelle Martinez and the Statistical and Science Policy Office.
The production of a modern classification of crime, in Report 1, is arguably the major product and weightiest conceptual lift of this project. In the development of our proposed classification—from which stems the discussion in this second report—we remain greatly indebted to the work of a UNODC expert work group established to draft an International Classification of Crime for Statistical Purposes. Angela Me, chief of the UNODC’s Research and Trend Analysis Branch, traveled to speak to our panel in person at our second meeting, and Michael Jandl (research officer in the Statistics and Survey Division) graciously stepped in on short notice to give a brief overview of the UNODC work by teleconference at our first meeting. We note that the UNODC work group is continuing to work out the methodological and implementation issues of the kind we address in this report and look forward to continued cooperation, and have appreciated the opportunity to discuss the work at conferences on international crime, justice, and governance statistics.
With continued appreciation, we refer readers to Appendix B of Report 1—the detailed list of participant stakeholders from our panel’s data-gathering meetings. We again thank all the speakers and participants who enriched our discussions with their wide-ranging perspectives (and shared interest in high-quality crime and justice data), and look forward to continued collaboration in implementation stages.
At the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, Michael Siri provided expert and always considerate assistance in managing the logistics of this very active study panel. For a little more than 6 critical months in 2015, the panel had the invaluable assistance of Seth Hauser, who took to a short-term assignment as senior program officer with gusto and deftly constructed the agenda for two of our panel meetings. Program officer Jordyn White assisted with our proceedings. Daniel Cork served as study director for this project and deserves special recognition. His skills for incorporating large amounts of technical and organizational data on crime statistics with insights from data users, providers, and panel members were inimitable and invaluable to the writing of this report.
This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process.
We thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Thomas Abt, Harvard Law School; John J. Donohue III, Stanford Law School; John Jackson, Patrol Region 3, Houston Police, Houston, TX; Angela Me, Research and Trend Analysis Branch, United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime; Peter Reuter, School of Public Policy and Department of Criminology, University of Maryland, College Park; John Roman, NORC at the University of Chicago; and Max Schlueter, The Crime Research Group, Montpelier, VT.
Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Alfred Blumstein, H. John Heinz III College of Public Policy and Information Systems, Carnegie Mellon University, and Philip J. Cook, Sanford School of Public Policy, Duke University. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies.
Janet L. Lauritsen, Chair
Panel on Modernizing the Nation’s Crime Statistics
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List of Figures, Tables, and Boxes
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