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The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, non- governmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.national-academies.org. The Transportation Research Board is one of seven major programs of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. The mission of the Transportation Research Board is to increase the benefits that transportation contributes to society by providing leadership in transportation innovation and progress through research and information exchange, conducted within a setting that is objective, interdisciplinary, and multimodal. The Boardâs varied committees, task forces, and panels annually engage about 7,000 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. The program is supported by state transportation departments, federal agencies including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transportation, and other organizations and individuals interested in the development of transportation. Learn more about the Transportation Research Board at www.TRB.org.
FOREWORD By Dianne S. Schwager Staff Officer Transportation Research Board TCRP Research Report 201 was developed to help transit managers, planners, and communities understand how changes in demographics, traveler preferences, and markets for public transportation affect transit ridership now and in the future. The research report, which is intended for practitioners and decision-makers, is supported by seven appendices that will benefit researchers. ______________________________________________________________________________ The research conducted for TCRP Research Report 201: Understanding Changes in Demographics, Preferences, and Markets for Public Transportation concludes that a mix of factors interact and ultimately drive transit ridership. An individualâs demographics affect their long-term values, their current attitudes, and the type of neighborhood they live in. Each of these factors also affects their likelihood to ride transit. The research report presents findings in eight major areas: 1. Demographic factors are critical for predicting future markets for transit. 2. Location is critical for predicting the future markets for transit. 3. Market-based preferences are critical for predicting the future markets for transit. 4. Age, preferences, and location together affected changes over the past decade. 5. Age, preferences, and location together can explain expected changes for the future. 6. Transit level-of-service is more important than having a population that is pro-transit. 7. TNCs will offer more competition to transit. 8. Study results have important implications for transit leaders. The report is supplemented by seven Technical Appendices, which are available on the TRB website (www.trb.org) by searching for âTCRP Research Report 201.â These appendices present a literature review and bibliography, and provide additional information on the subjects covered in Chapters 2 through 7 in this final report. â¢ Appendix 1: Literature Review and Bibliography â¢ Appendix 2: Demographics in Support of Chapter 2 â¢ Appendix 3: Geography and Neighborhood Type in Support of Chapter 3 â¢ Appendix 4: Survey and Market Segmentation in Support of Chapter 4 â¢ Appendix 5: Analysis of Preference in Support of Chapter 5 â¢ Appendix 6: Integrated Behavioral Modeling in Support of Chapter 6 â¢ Appendix 7: Information and Communications Technology in Support of Chapter 7