Below is the uncorrected machine-read text of this chapter, intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text of each book. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.
2018 T R A N S I T C O O P E R A T I V E R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M TCRP RESEARCH REPORT 201 Research sponsored by the Federal Transit Administration in cooperation with the Transit Development Corporation Subject Areas Planning and Forecasting â¢ Public Transportation Understanding Changes in Demographics, Preferences, and Markets for Public Transportation Matthew Coogan White River Junction, VT Greg Spitz a n d Tom Adler RSG White River Junction, VT Nancy McGuckin South Pasadena, CA Richard Kuzmyak RenaiSSance PlanninG Orlando, FL Karla Karash Grantham, NH
TCRP RESEARCH REPORT 201 Project H-51 ISSN 2572-3782 ISBN 978-0-309-47990-5 Â© 2018 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. COPYRIGHT INFORMATION Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously published or copyrighted material used herein. Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) grants permission to reproduce material in this publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Permission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB, AASHTO, FAA, FHWA, FMCSA, FRA, FTA, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology, PHMSA, or TDC endorsement of a particular product, method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing the material in this document for educational and not-for-profit uses will give appropriate acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission from CRP. NOTICE The research report was reviewed by the technical panel and accepted for publication according to procedures established and overseen by the Transportation Research Board and approved by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this report are those of the researchers who performed the research and are not necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; or the program sponsors. The Transportation Research Board; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; and the sponsors of the Transit Cooperative Research Program do not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturersâ names appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the object of the report. TRANSIT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM The nationâs growth and the need to meet mobility, environmental, and energy objectives place demands on public transit systems. Cur- rent systems, some of which are old and in need of upgrading, must expand service area, increase service frequency, and improve efficiency to serve these demands. Research is necessary to solve operating prob- lems, adapt appropriate new technologies from other industries, and introduce innovations into the transit industry. The Transit Coopera- tive Research Program (TCRP) serves as one of the principal means by which the transit industry can develop innovative near-term solutions to meet demands placed on it. The need for TCRP was originally identified in TRB Special Report 213âResearch for Public Transit: New Directions, published in 1987 and based on a study sponsored by the Urban Mass Transportation Administrationânow the Federal Transit Administration (FTA). A report by the American Public Transportation Association (APTA), Transportation 2000, also recognized the need for local, problem- solving research. TCRP, modeled after the successful National Coop- erative Highway Research Program (NCHRP), undertakes research and other technical activities in response to the needs of transit ser- vice providers. The scope of TCRP includes various transit research fields including planning, service configuration, equipment, facilities, operations, human resources, maintenance, policy, and administrative practices. TCRP was established under FTA sponsorship in July 1992. Proposed by the U.S. Department of Transportation, TCRP was authorized as part of the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act of 1991 (ISTEA). On May 13, 1992, a memorandum agreement outlining TCRP operating procedures was executed by the three cooperating organi- zations: FTA; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, acting through the Transportation Research Board (TRB); and the Transit Development Corporation, Inc. (TDC), a nonprofit educational and research organization established by APTA. TDC is responsible for forming the independent governing board, designated as the TCRP Oversight and Project Selection (TOPS) Committee. Research problem statements for TCRP are solicited periodically but may be submitted to TRB by anyone at any time. It is the responsibility of the TOPS Committee to formulate the research program by identi- fying the highest priority projects. As part of the evaluation, the TOPS Committee defines funding levels and expected products. Once selected, each project is assigned to an expert panel appointed by TRB. The panels prepare project statements (requests for propos- als), select contractors, and provide technical guidance and counsel throughout the life of the project. The process for developing research problem statements and selecting research agencies has been used by TRB in managing cooperative research programs since 1962. As in other TRB activities, TCRP project panels serve voluntarily without compensation. Because research cannot have the desired effect if products fail to reach the intended audience, special emphasis is placed on disseminat- ing TCRP results to the intended users of the research: transit agen- cies, service providers, and suppliers. TRB provides a series of research reports, syntheses of transit practice, and other supporting material developed by TCRP research. APTA will arrange for workshops, train- ing aids, field visits, and other activities to ensure that results are imple- mented by urban and rural transit industry practitioners. TCRP provides a forum where transit agencies can cooperatively address common operational problems. TCRP results support and complement other ongoing transit research and training programs. Published research reports of the TRANSIT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM are available from Transportation Research Board Business Office 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 and can be ordered through the Internet by going to http://www.national-academies.org and then searching for TRB Printed in the United States of America
The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, non- governmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.national-academies.org. The Transportation Research Board is one of seven major programs of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. The mission of the Transportation Research Board is to increase the benefits that transportation contributes to society by providing leadership in transportation innovation and progress through research and information exchange, conducted within a setting that is objective, interdisciplinary, and multimodal. The Boardâs varied committees, task forces, and panels annually engage about 7,000 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. The program is supported by state transportation departments, federal agencies including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transportation, and other organizations and individuals interested in the development of transportation. Learn more about the Transportation Research Board at www.TRB.org.
C O O P E R A T I V E R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M S CRP STAFF FOR TCRP RESEARCH REPORT 201 Christopher J. Hedges, Director, Cooperative Research Programs Lori L. Sundstrom, Deputy Director, Cooperative Research Programs Dianne S. Schwager, Senior Program Officer Daniel J. Magnolia, Senior Program Associate Eileen P. Delaney, Director of Publications Natalie Barnes, Associate Director of Publications Janet M. McNaughton, Senior Editor TCRP PROJECT H-51 PANEL Field of Policy and Planning Tim E. Healy, Sound Transit, Seattle, WA (Chair) Gabriella Serrado Arismendi, City and County of Denver, Denver, CO Clinton S. Bench, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA Brent Boyd, San Diego Metropolitan Transit System, San Diego, CA Philip B. Hemily, Hemily and Associates, Toronto, ON, Canada Shyam Kannan, Washington Metropolitan Area Transportation Authority, Washington, DC Pratap âPatrickâ Mandapaka, HoustonâGalveston Area Council, Houston, TX Hugh A. Mose, State College, PA Christopher M. Puchalsky, City of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, PA Mindy Rhindress, Queens College, CUNY, Flushing, NY Susan A. Shaheen, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA Matthew Sibul, Utah Transit Authority, Salt Lake City, UT Katie Sihler, Moovel (formerly RideScout), Austin, TX Sonali Soneji, Virginia Railway Express, Alexandria, VA Franklin L. Spielberg, Falls Church, VA William C. Van Meter, Regional Transportation DistrictâDenver, Denver, CO Peter Mazurek, FTA Liaison James Ryan, FTA Liaison Melissa A. Anderson, Melissa A. Anderson, LLC, Liaison Richard Weaver, APTA Liaison Stephen J. Andrle, TRB Liaison
TCRP Research Report 201 was developed to help transit managers, planners, and commu- nities understand how changes in demographics, traveler preferences, and markets for public transportation affect transit ridership now and in the future. The research report, which is intended for practitioners and decision makers, is supported by seven appendices that will benefit researchers. The research conducted for TCRP Research Report 201: Understanding Changes in Demo- graphics, Preferences, and Markets for Public Transportation concludes that a mix of factors interacts and ultimately drives transit ridership. An individualâs demographics affect that personâs long-term values, current attitudes, and choice of neighborhood type. Each of these factors also affects the likelihood to ride transit. This research report presents findings in eight major areas: 1. Demographic factors are critical for predicting future markets for transit. 2. Location is critical for predicting the future markets for transit. 3. Market-based preferences are critical for predicting the future markets for transit. 4. Age, preferences, and location together affected changes over the past decade. 5. Age, preferences, and location together can explain expected changes for the future. 6. Transit level of service is more important than having a population that is pro-transit. 7. Transportation network companies (TNCs) will offer more competition to transit. 8. Study results have important implications for transit leaders. The report is supplemented by seven technical appendices, which are available on the TRB website (www.trb.org) by searching for âTCRP Research Report 201â. These appendices include a literature review and bibliography and provide additional information on the subjects covered in Chapters 2 through 7 in this final report: â¢ Technical Appendix 1. Literature Review and Project Bibliography, â¢ Technical Appendix 2. Demographics in Support of Chapter 2, â¢ Technical Appendix 3. Geography and Neighborhood Type in Support of Chapter 3, â¢ Technical Appendix 4. Survey and Market Segmentation in Support of Chapter 4, â¢ Technical Appendix 5. Analysis of Preference in Support of Chapter 5, â¢ Technical Appendix 6. Integrated Behavioral Modeling in Support of Chapter 6, and â¢ Technical Appendix 7. Information and Communications Technology in Support of Chapter 7. F O R E W O R D By Dianne S. Schwager Staff Officer Transportation Research Board
This research was led by Resource Systems Group (RSG), where Thomas Adler served as principal in charge. Matthew Coogan, an independent contractor, served as the principal investigator and primary author of the final report. Greg Spitz of RSG served as the project manager. Major research concerning demographics was provided by Nancy McGuckin, and research in land use implications was provided by Richard Kuzmyak of Renaissance Planning. Karla Karash served as a senior advisor focusing on the implications for the transit industry.
1 Summary 7 Chapter 1 Eight Major Findings and Policy Implications 7 Research Approach 8 Major Finding 1. Demographic Factors Are Critical for Predicting Future Markets for Transit 11 Major Finding 2. Location Is Critical for Predicting Future Markets for Transit 13 Major Finding 3. Market-Based Preferences Are Critical for Understanding Present and Future Orientation Toward Transit 14 Major Finding 4. How Age and Preferences Affect Location 17 Major Finding 5. How Age, Preferences, and Location Explain Expected Changes for the Future 19 Major Finding 6. Transit Level of Service Is More Important Than Having a Population That Is Pro-Transit 20 Major Finding 7. TNCs Will Offer More Competition 22 Major Finding 8. Implications for the Leaders of the Transit Community 27 Chapter 2 Demographic Characteristics Affecting the Market for Transit 27 Highlights of Demographic Trends of Transit Riders 28 Trends in Characteristics of Transit Users 31 Trends in Characteristics of Transit Trips 33 Trends in Overall American Travel Patterns and VMT Across Two Decades 35 Chapter 3 Variation in Transit Use by Neighborhood Type and Urban Form 35 Trends in Location of Residence 37 Transit-Supportive Conditions 38 Trends in Employment Location 40 Telecommuting and Working at Home 42 Defining New Ways to Understand Neighborhood Characteristics 44 Chapter 4 Market Segments for Transit Use 44 Market Segmentation for Transit 44 Methodology 45 The Four Market Segments from the 2016 TCRP Survey 46 Who Is in Each Segment? 47 Chapter 5 Preferences About Where We Live and How We Travel 47 Mode Share by Age, Neighborhood Type, and Market Segment 48 Preferences About Where to Live 52 Car Preferences 54 Concerns About Transit: Safety, Crime, and Disturbing Behavior 56 Expectations for Personal Change C O N T E N T S
59 Chapter 6 Understanding How the Factors Fit Together: Integrated Modeling 59 A New Integrated Scenario Forecasting Model for Transit 65 A New Model for the Impact of Values and Attitudes on Transit Ridership 68 Chapter 7 Information and Communications Technology Might Change the Setting for Transit 68 Who Owns Communications Devices? 68 Who Finds Communications Devices Important and How Do They Use Them? 70 Services from Transportation Network Companies 72 Autonomous Vehicles and Transit 73 Are Trips Being Replaced by Information Technology? 75 Chapter 8 Conclusions and Further Research 75 Things That Can Be Predicted About Future Transit Markets 76 Things That Cannot Be Predicted About Future Transit Markets 77 Implications for Further Research 78 Specific Project Ideas for Further Research 80 References 82 Additional Resources 83 Acronyms 84 Appendices