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Suggested Citation:"References." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Identification of Factors Contributing to the Decline of Traffic Fatalities in the United States from 2008 to 2012. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25590.
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Page 103
Suggested Citation:"References." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Identification of Factors Contributing to the Decline of Traffic Fatalities in the United States from 2008 to 2012. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25590.
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Page 104
Suggested Citation:"References." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Identification of Factors Contributing to the Decline of Traffic Fatalities in the United States from 2008 to 2012. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25590.
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Page 105
Suggested Citation:"References." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Identification of Factors Contributing to the Decline of Traffic Fatalities in the United States from 2008 to 2012. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25590.
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Page 105

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Page 88 Flannagan, C. A. C. and A. Leslie (2012). Analysis of Rollovers and ESC in Light Vehicles. Ann Arbor, MI, University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute. Forsman, Å., L. Simonsson, et al. (n.d.). Analysis of fatal accidents during a period of severe economic recession. Linköping, Sweden, VTI. Grabowski, D. C. and M. A. Morrisey (2004). "Gasoline prices and motor vehicle fatalities." Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 23(3): 575-593. Grabowski, D. C. and M. A. Morrisey (2006). "Do higher gasoline taxes save lives?" Economics Letters 90(1): 51-55. Harper, S., T. J. Charters, et al. (2015). "Trends in Socioeconomic Inequalities in Motor Vehicle Accident Deaths in the United States, 1995-2010." Am J Epidemiol 182(7): 606-614. Haughwout, S. P., R. A. LaVallee, et al. (2015). Surveillance Report #102, Apparent per capita alcohol consumption: national, state, and regional trends, 1977-2013. Arlington, VA, National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism: 61. Highway Loss Data Institute (2014). "Predicted availability of safety features on registered vehicles – an update." HLDI Bulletin 31(15). Hilbe, J. M. (2011). Negative Binomial Regression. Cambridge, UK, Cambridge University Presss Hilbe, J. M. (2014). Modeling Count Data. Cambridge, UK, Cambridge University Presss Hsia, R. Y. and Y.-C. Shen (2011). "Changes in geographical access to trauma centers for vulnerable populations in the United States." Health Affairs (Project Hope) 30(10): 1912. Kahane, C. J. (2004). Lives Saved By The Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards And Other Vehicle Safety Technologies, 1960-2002-Passenger Cars And Light Trucks-With A Review Of 19 FMVSS And Their Effectiveness In Reducing Fatalities, Injuries And Crashes. Washington, DC, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Kahane, C. J. (2014). Updated Estimates of Fatality Reduction by Electronic Stability Control. Washington, DC, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Kahane, C. J. (2015). Lives saved by vehicle safety technologies and associated Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards, 1960 to 2012 – Passenger cars and LTVs – With reviews of 26 FMVSS and the effectiveness of their associated safety technologies in reducing fatalities, injuries, and crashes. Washington, DC, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Keall, M. and S. Newstead (2009). "Selection of Comparison Crash Types for Quasi-Induced Exposure Risk Estimation." Traffic injury prevention 10(1): 23-29. Klinich, K. (2016). Digest and index of state laws on alcohol for drivers. Kweon, Y. J. (2015). "What affects annual changes in traffic safety? A macroscopic perspective in Virginia." Journal of Safety Research 53: 17-21. Lloyd, L., C. Wallbank, et al. (2015). "A collection of evidence for the impact of the economic recession on road fatalities in Great Britain." Accident Analysis & Prevention 80: 274- 285. Lord, D., S. Geedipally, et al. (2010). "Extension of the Application of Conway-Maxwell- Poisson Models: Analyzing Traffic Crash Data Exhibiting Under-Dispersion." Risk Analysis 30(8): 8. Lord, D. and F. Mannering (2010). "The statistical analysis of crash-frequency data: A review and assessment of methodological alternatives." Transportation Research Part a-Policy and Practice 44(5): 291-305.

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Page 90 Pickrell, T. M. and C. Liu (2014). Seat Belt Use in 2013 – Overall Results. Washington, DC, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Santos, A., N. McGuckin, et al. (2011). Summary of Travel Trends: 2009 National Household Travel Survey. Washington, DC, FHWA: 82. Silver, D., J. Macinko, et al. (2013). "Variation in U.S. traffic safety policy environments and motor vehicle fatalities 1980-2010." Public Health 127(12): 1117-1125. Tefft, B. C., A. F. Williams, et al. (2013). Timing of driver’s license acquisition and reasons for delay among young people in the United States, 2012. Washington, DC, AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety. US Bureau of the Census (2016). Real Median Household Income in the United States. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. St. Louis, MO. US EIA (2016). State Energy Data System. US Energy Information Administration, Retrieved from http://www.eia.gov/state/seds/. Williams, A. F. (1999). The Haddon matrix: its contribution to injury prevention and control. Third National Conference on Injury Prevention and Control, Brisbane, Queensland. World Bank (2016). World development indicators. Wunderlich, R. (2015). An Estimation of Lives Saved by Installing Guardrails, Median Barriers, and Impact Attenuators from 1982 through 2012. College Station, TX, Texas A&M University.

Next: Appendix A Factor analysis details »
Identification of Factors Contributing to the Decline of Traffic Fatalities in the United States from 2008 to 2012 Get This Book
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Between 2005 and 2011, the number of traffic fatalities in the U.S. declined by 11,031, from 43,510 in 2005 to 32,479 in 2011. This decline amounted to a reduction in traffic-related deaths of 25.4 percent, by far the greatest decline over a comparable period in the last 30 years.

Historically, significant drops in traffic fatalities over a short period of time have coincided with economic recessions. Longer recessions have coincided with deeper declines in the number of traffic fatalities. This report from the National Cooperative Highway Research Program, NCHRP Research Report 928: Identification of Factors Contributing to the Decline of Traffic Fatalities in the United States from 2008 to 2012, provides an analysis that identifies the specific factors in the economic decline that affected fatal crash risk, while taking into account the long-term factors that determine the level of traffic safety.

A key insight into the analysis of the factors that produced the sharp drop in traffic fatalities was that the young contributed disproportionately to the drop-off in traffic fatalities. Of the reduction in traffic fatalities from 2007 to 2011, people 25-years-old and younger accounted for nearly 48 percent of the drop, though they were only about 28 percent of total traffic fatalities prior to the decline. Traffic deaths among people 25-years-old and younger dropped substantially more than other groups. Young drivers are known to be a high-risk group and can be readily identified in the crash data. Other high-risk groups also likely contributed to the decline but they cannot be identified as well as age can.

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