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Page 110
Suggested Citation:"Appendix C State-specific parameters for the MCS model." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Identification of Factors Contributing to the Decline of Traffic Fatalities in the United States from 2008 to 2012. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25590.
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Page 110
Page 111
Suggested Citation:"Appendix C State-specific parameters for the MCS model." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Identification of Factors Contributing to the Decline of Traffic Fatalities in the United States from 2008 to 2012. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25590.
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Page 111
Page 112
Suggested Citation:"Appendix C State-specific parameters for the MCS model." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Identification of Factors Contributing to the Decline of Traffic Fatalities in the United States from 2008 to 2012. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25590.
×
Page 112
Page 113
Suggested Citation:"Appendix C State-specific parameters for the MCS model." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Identification of Factors Contributing to the Decline of Traffic Fatalities in the United States from 2008 to 2012. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25590.
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Page 113

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Page 95 Appendix C State-specific parameters for the MCS model Table C-1 State-Specific Parameters for the MCS model with VMT as exposure State Estimate Standard Error P-value Alabama 0.3596 0.0641 <.0001 Alaska 0.0299 0.07 0.6695 Arizona 0.2314 0.0725 0.0014 Arkansas 0.5598 0.0593 <.0001 California -0.1229 0.0872 0.1586 Colorado -0.2502 0.0656 0.0001 Connecticut -0.4656 0.0935 <.0001 Delaware -0.1887 0.0903 0.0367 Florida 0.1176 0.0845 0.1641 Georgia 0.0791 0.0669 0.2369 Hawaii -0.2054 0.0832 0.0136 Idaho 0.2567 0.0584 <.0001 Illinois -0.2918 0.0822 0.0004 Indiana -0.0912 0.0597 0.1264 Iowa -0.1557 0.0626 0.013 Kansas 0.1342 0.0617 0.0296 Kentucky 0.4626 0.0539 <.0001 Louisiana 0.3855 0.0634 <.0001 Maine -0.0201 0.056 0.7201 Maryland -0.2049 0.0928 0.0272 Massachusetts -0.6195 0.0995 <.0001 Michigan -0.1634 0.0712 0.0218 Minnesota -0.5554 0.0565 <.0001 Mississippi 0.5557 0.0649 <.0001 Missouri 0.1053 0.0632 0.0958 Montana 0.392 0.0577 <.0001 Nebraska -0.1662 0.0596 0.0053 Nevada 0.0031 0.0786 0.9683 New Hampshire -0.7107 0.085 <.0001 New Jersey -0.345 0.1094 0.0016 New Mexico 0.228 0.0574 <.0001 New York -0.1999 0.0804 0.013

Page 96 State Estimate Standard Error P-value North Carolina 0.2237 0.0662 0.0007 North Dakota -0.1153 0.0513 0.0248 Ohio -0.2456 0.0656 0.0002 Oklahoma 0.2174 0.0617 0.0004 Oregon 0.0114 0.0691 0.8694 Pennsylvania -0.0609 0.063 0.3341 Rhode Island -0.361 0.0919 <.0001 South Carolina 0.4392 0.0547 <.0001 South Dakota 0.1469 0.0513 0.0042 Tennessee 0.3403 0.0686 <.0001 Texas 0.0205 0.0688 0.766 Utah -0.1108 0.0854 0.1944 Vermont -0.327 0.0678 <.0001 Virginia -0.1919 0.0781 0.014 Washington -0.2291 0.0793 0.0039 West Virginia 0.577 0.0675 <.0001 Wisconsin -0.2803 0.056 <.0001 Wyoming 0 0 . Table C-2 State-specific parameters for the MCS model with population as exposure State Estimate Standard Error P-value Alabama 0.4992 0.0699 <.0001 Alaska -0.7208 0.0749 <.0001 Arizona 0.1407 0.0788 0.0743 Arkansas 0.5336 0.0641 <.0001 California -0.3947 0.0957 <.0001 Colorado -0.4884 0.0712 <.0001 Connecticut -0.904 0.102 <.0001 Delaware -0.4366 0.0983 <.0001 Florida 0.1446 0.0922 0.1169 Georgia 0.0714 0.0731 0.329 Hawaii -0.5401 0.0901 <.0001 Idaho 0.1767 0.0626 0.0048

Page 97 State Estimate Standard Error P-value Illinois -0.6258 0.0903 <.0001 Indiana -0.0965 0.0648 0.1364 Iowa -0.3045 0.0681 <.0001 Kansas 0.0277 0.0667 0.6781 Kentucky 0.3825 0.0583 <.0001 Louisiana 0.1845 0.0691 0.0076 Maine -0.1783 0.0605 0.0032 Maryland -0.3002 0.1017 0.0031 Massachusetts -0.9782 0.109 <.0001 Michigan -0.2843 0.0778 0.0003 Minnesota -0.7161 0.061 <.0001 Mississippi 0.7983 0.0707 <.0001 Missouri 0.0992 0.069 0.1503 Montana 0.4253 0.0618 <.0001 Nebraska -0.318 0.0646 <.0001 Nevada -0.2593 0.0856 0.0025 New Hampshire -0.7527 0.0919 <.0001 New Jersey -0.625 0.1201 <.0001 New Mexico 0.3478 0.0619 <.0001 New York -0.9236 0.0881 <.0001 North Carolina 0.1423 0.0724 0.0495 North Dakota -0.1945 0.0543 0.0003 Ohio -0.434 0.0712 <.0001 Oklahoma 0.3377 0.0668 <.0001 Oregon -0.1785 0.0754 0.0179 Pennsylvania -0.4151 0.0685 <.0001 Rhode Island -0.7258 0.0993 <.0001 South Carolina 0.4646 0.0591 <.0001 South Dakota -0.0059 0.0546 0.9142 Tennessee 0.3062 0.075 <.0001 Texas -0.1285 0.0751 0.0871 Utah -0.2402 0.0927 0.0096 Vermont -0.2146 0.0724 0.003 Virginia -0.3139 0.0854 0.0002 Washington -0.5256 0.087 <.0001

Page 98 State Estimate Standard Error P-value West Virginia 0.595 0.0734 <.0001 Wisconsin -0.3481 0.0604 <.0001 Wyoming 0 0 .

Next: Appendix D State-level MNCS model prediction vs. performance »
Identification of Factors Contributing to the Decline of Traffic Fatalities in the United States from 2008 to 2012 Get This Book
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Between 2005 and 2011, the number of traffic fatalities in the U.S. declined by 11,031, from 43,510 in 2005 to 32,479 in 2011. This decline amounted to a reduction in traffic-related deaths of 25.4 percent, by far the greatest decline over a comparable period in the last 30 years.

Historically, significant drops in traffic fatalities over a short period of time have coincided with economic recessions. Longer recessions have coincided with deeper declines in the number of traffic fatalities. This report from the National Cooperative Highway Research Program, NCHRP Research Report 928: Identification of Factors Contributing to the Decline of Traffic Fatalities in the United States from 2008 to 2012, provides an analysis that identifies the specific factors in the economic decline that affected fatal crash risk, while taking into account the long-term factors that determine the level of traffic safety.

A key insight into the analysis of the factors that produced the sharp drop in traffic fatalities was that the young contributed disproportionately to the drop-off in traffic fatalities. Of the reduction in traffic fatalities from 2007 to 2011, people 25-years-old and younger accounted for nearly 48 percent of the drop, though they were only about 28 percent of total traffic fatalities prior to the decline. Traffic deaths among people 25-years-old and younger dropped substantially more than other groups. Young drivers are known to be a high-risk group and can be readily identified in the crash data. Other high-risk groups also likely contributed to the decline but they cannot be identified as well as age can.

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