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Impacts of Policy-Induced Freight Modal Shifts (2019)

Chapter: Chapter 8 - Model Results

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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 8 - Model Results." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Impacts of Policy-Induced Freight Modal Shifts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25660.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 8 - Model Results." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Impacts of Policy-Induced Freight Modal Shifts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25660.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 8 - Model Results." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Impacts of Policy-Induced Freight Modal Shifts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25660.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 8 - Model Results." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Impacts of Policy-Induced Freight Modal Shifts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25660.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 8 - Model Results." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Impacts of Policy-Induced Freight Modal Shifts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25660.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 8 - Model Results." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Impacts of Policy-Induced Freight Modal Shifts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25660.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 8 - Model Results." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Impacts of Policy-Induced Freight Modal Shifts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25660.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 8 - Model Results." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Impacts of Policy-Induced Freight Modal Shifts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25660.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 8 - Model Results." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Impacts of Policy-Induced Freight Modal Shifts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25660.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 8 - Model Results." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Impacts of Policy-Induced Freight Modal Shifts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25660.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 8 - Model Results." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Impacts of Policy-Induced Freight Modal Shifts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25660.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 8 - Model Results." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Impacts of Policy-Induced Freight Modal Shifts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25660.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 8 - Model Results." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Impacts of Policy-Induced Freight Modal Shifts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25660.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 8 - Model Results." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Impacts of Policy-Induced Freight Modal Shifts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25660.
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87 This chapter presents the freight mode choice models obtained by the team. Since the descrip- tions of independent variables and model specifications for various types of models were pro- vided in Chapter 7, this chapter only provides the model results. In deciding which models to present in this chapter, the team used two criteria. The first was conceptual validity, which in most cases consisted of verifying that the models had negative parameters for rate, transit time, and generalized cost. The constant term in the models should be positive, as it represents the bias toward the truck mode. The NCFRP Project 44 research team, to the extent possible, compared the values of the parameters for the various models to ensure that comparatively speaking, the results made sense. The second criteria was statistical significance to ensure that the models were statistically solid. In a number of cases, however, the team decided to include models that were conceptually valid, but had parameters that were not statistically significant. These models have been labelled as “Not Recommended: Conceptually Valid But Statistically Not Significant.” These models were included for reference purposes. The model results utilize the following statistics to indicate the goodness of fit and statistical significance of the models: Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), F-test (F), value of time (VOT), Wald Chi-Squared Test (Wald), and Log Likelihood (Log Lik.). This chapter is divided into five sections. The first presents the shipment-size models as a function of GCD. The second section explains the market-share models. The subsequent three sections present the shipment-level models with three types of weights, unweighted, domestic, and total weight, respectively. Shipment-Size Models Table 21 shows the final shipment-size models (in lb) used to address the endogeneity between the mode choice and the shipment size. The instrumental variable is the GCD in miles. The functional forms are shown in Equations (14) and (15). These models, although they have a lower R2, were able to address the endogeneity effectively due to a higher t-stat value, which shows the explanatory power of the variable. Some commodities are grouped at the two-digit SCTG level to improve the model estimates. The shipment-size model for coal (SCTG 15) could not be presented because it did not pass the disclosure requirements. Market-Share Models The market-share models that estimate the probability of which mode will be chosen between truck and rail for a typical shipment are presented in Tables 22 to 25. It is important to note that only statistically significant and conceptually valid models are shown. In these tables, the model results are shown in two parts. The top part of each table lists the recommended models, C H A P T E R 8 Model Results

88 Impacts of Policy-Induced Freight Modal Shifts which are conceptually valid and statistically significant. The bottom part of each table shows the models that are not recommended because, although they are conceptually valid, they are not statistically significant. Also, the sample size represents the number of bins by GCD considered in the aggregation process and does not represent the number of shipments. Transit Time and Freight Rate Models This section presents the market-share models that consider freight rate or transit time as separate independent variables (see Table 22). SCTG Description a0 t-stat a1 t-stat Obs. R2 S2 02 Cereal Grains 10.030 330.00 0.2077 27.09 23,800 0.029 2.65 03 Agriculture 6.108 181.40 0.2420 33.37 51,800 0.021 10.96 06 Milled Grain Products 5.790 199.30 0.4960 82.52 53,400 0.113 6.91 07 Prepared Foodstuffs 7.157 468.70 0.1850 55.20 179,900 0.017 7.84 08 Alcoholic Beverages 5.533 348.10 0.2710 61.15 94,800 0.038 4.67 09 Tobacco Products 3.797 80.09 0.1450 13.40 14,800 0.012 6.10 16 Crude Petroleum 7.901 29.80 0.5190 7.15 900 0.056 9.92 17 Gasoline, Ethanol 9.116 369.90 0.2720 36.49 35,500 0.036 3.90 18 Fuel Oils 6.801 376.40 0.5230 78.10 57,200 0.096 3.21 19 Coal Products 6.137 393.00 0.1320 65.90 132,700 0.032 5.67 21 Pharmaceutical - - 0.5260 294.50 84,300 - 7.70 24 Plastics and Rubber 4.969 307.70 0.1430 46.21 270,800 0.008 9.36 25 Logs and Wood 9.277 118.30 0.1750 9.63 4,900 0.018 3.21 26 Wood Products 7.025 347.40 0.1850 41.59 143,300 0.012 7.95 32 Base Metal 6.222 325.50 0.2051 52.48 178,100 0.015 8.90 33 Articles of Base Metal 4.515 262.50 0.0830 24.47 224,300 0.003 9.88 34 Machinery 3.351 207.00 0.1160 37.88 250,300 0.006 8.66 35 Electronics 2.686 221.90 0.0430 19.97 305,300 0.001 6.05 36 Motorized Vehicles 3.374 153.40 0.2090 48.70 178,300 0.013 10.80 37 Transport Equipment - - 0.4870 206.40 41,700 - 8.43 38 Precision Instruments 1.842 92.96 0.0390 11.57 125,700 0.001 4.55 41 Waste and Scrap 9.993 558.50 0.1190 30.04 37,400 0.024 1.60 43 Mixed Freight 4.215 277.00 0.2560 74.47 271,000 0.020 10.63 04 Animal Feed 24110 7.29 3477 4.68 44,700 0.0004 - 31 Cements and Ceramics 27240 16.02 1403 3.53 169,100 0.0001 - 01,05 Meat, Poultry, Fish 5.068 206.60 0.5440 106.00 6,200 0.153 5.91 39,40 Furniture, Mattresses - - 0.6300 630.90 338,900 - 11.28 10-14 Nonmetalic Minerals - - 56910 36.62 146,400 - - 20,22,23 Basic Chemicals - - 5014 40.84 252,700 - - Two-Digit SCTG Models Power Function Models Logarithmic Models Power Function Models Logarithmic Models Group of Two-Digit SCTG Models Table 21. Shipment-size models (lb), two-digit SCTG and SCTG groups. SCTG Description a0 t-stat ac t-stat a t t-stat Obs . R 2 RMSE F VOT 21 Pharmaceuticals 5.074 11.09 -3.680E-03 -0.83 -3.904E-03 -0.78 40 0.09 0.77 2.29 0.94 29 Printed Products 6.381 15.89 -5.873E-03 -0.86 -4.929E-03 -0.73 40 0.41 0.98 13.00 1.19 30 Textiles 5.634 6.45 -2.872E-03 -0.94 -2.384E-03 -0.70 35 0.27 1.10 7.98 1.20 37 Transport Equipment 3.532 11.14 -5.224E-03 -1.86 -5.995E-03 -1.81 40 0.05 1.10 2.04 0.87 Not Recommended: Conceptually Valid but Statistically Not Significant Table 22. Market-share two-digit SCTG models, transit times, and freight rates.

Model Results 89 SCTG Description a0 t-stat aGC5 t-stat Obs R2 RMSE F 03 Agriculture 3.974 15.99 -4.676E-05 -2.81 40 0.15 1.20 7.90 05 Meat, Poultry, Fish 5.616 34.19 -2.412E-04 -4.55 35 0.38 0.83 20.66 06 Milled Grain Products 3.867 14.39 -1.217E-04 -3.78 40 0.25 1.41 14.29 07 Prepared Foodstuffs 4.299 22.40 -2.044E-04 -6.36 40 0.50 0.93 40.45 11 Natural Sands 1.559 5.16 -1.354E-04 -4.33 40 0.31 1.49 18.77 12 Gravel and Stone 1.818 7.06 -4.926E-05 -2.12 40 0.08 1.23 4.48 13 Non-Metallic Minerals 3.313 13.14 -1.286E-04 -4.91 40 0.37 1.18 24.09 17 Gasoline, Ethanol 1.667 3.34 -2.573E-04 -4.49 40 0.34 2.50 20.16 19 Coal Products 2.972 16.26 -7.987E-04 -4.22 40 0.30 1.17 17.83 23 Other Chemicals 4.256 29.02 -1.881E-03 -3.94 40 0.27 0.94 15.51 24 Plastics and Rubber 3.960 39.71 -9.408E-04 -5.00 40 0.37 0.57 24.97 25 Logs and Wood 3.090 10.11 -7.002E-04 -4.34 25 0.43 1.25 18.85 26 Wood Products 4.223 20.97 -2.371E-04 -6.63 40 0.52 0.97 43.90 27 Pulp, and Paper 3.775 20.71 -1.150E-03 -7.21 40 0.56 0.68 51.99 28 Paper Articles 5.584 26.57 -1.500E-03 -7.82 40 0.62 0.86 61.15 29 Printed Products 6.377 21.49 -1.029E-03 -4.19 35 0.33 1.05 17.56 30 Textiles 5.777 23.99 -8.220E-04 -3.09 40 0.18 1.16 9.54 31 Cements and Ceramics 3.369 25.26 -8.336E-04 -3.18 40 0.19 0.81 10.09 32 Base Metal 4.086 26.43 -1.624E-04 -3.71 40 0.24 0.80 13.77 33 Articles of Base Metal 5.403 28.93 -1.307E-03 -4.89 40 0.36 0.93 23.91 34 Machinery 5.130 42.26 -6.504E-04 -3.66 40 0.24 0.73 13.39 35 Electronics 5.788 26.18 -6.321E-04 -2.68 40 0.14 1.03 7.18 39 Furniture 7.219 31.37 -1.569E-03 -7.17 30 0.63 0.70 51.37 43 Mixed Freight 5.275 29.95 -2.169E-03 -6.17 40 0.49 0.93 38.12 02 Cereal Grains 0.552 1.72 -5.260E-05 -1.04 40 0.00 1.96 1.08 04 Animal Feed 2.341 7.98 -7.204E-04 -1.51 40 0.03 1.52 2.28 08 Alcoholic Beverages 3.614 9.50 -1.052E-03 -1.54 35 0.04 1.88 2.36 10 Building Stone 4.462 9.36 -8.489E-05 -1.90 5 0.34 1.02 3.63 18 Fuel Oils 2.206 4.62 -1.455E-04 -1.19 25 0.02 2.24 1.42 38 Precision Instruments 4.698 25.80 -2.253E-04 -0.71 35 -0.01 1.08 0.51 40 Misc. Manufacturing 5.680 33.40 -3.065E-04 -1.40 40 0.03 1.02 1.96 41 Waste and Scrap 1.596 11.61 -7.145E-05 -1.42 40 0.02 0.87 2.02 Not Recommended: Conceptually Valid but Statistically Not Significant Recommended: Conceptually Valid and Statistically Significant Table 23. Market-share two-digit SCTG models, generalized cost (op. cost = 5%). Generalized Cost Models This section presents market-share models that consider generalized costs as independent variables (see Tables 23 through 25). Shipment-Level Models: Unweighted These models assume that the freight mode choice data represent the actual market in the United States. Hence, the sample was not weighted for the model estimation. Tables 26 to 31 present the shipment-level models without any sample weights. Wherever the transit time vari- able has been found to be not statistically significant, it has been excluded from the tables. Transit Time and Freight Rate Models This section presents the unweighted shipment-level models that consider freight rate or transit times as separate independent variables. There are cases where only the freight rates are statistically significant (the transit time is not). In these cases, the team decided to accept these models as valid (see Tables 26 and 27).

90 Impacts of Policy-Induced Freight Modal Shifts SCTG Description a0 t-stat aGC10 z-stat Obs R2 RMSE F 03 Agriculture 3.881 16.08 -4.267E-05 -2.49 40 0.12 1.22 6.20 05 Meat, Poultry, Fish 5.416 34.63 -2.767E-04 -4.02 35 0.32 0.87 16.19 06 Milled Grain Products 3.823 14.39 -1.261E-04 -3.68 40 0.24 1.42 13.56 07 Prepared Foodstuffs 4.188 21.59 -2.192E-04 -5.74 40 0.44 0.98 32.92 11 Natural Sands 1.542 5.12 -1.381E-04 -4.30 40 0.31 1.50 18.49 12 Gravel and Stone 1.811 7.05 -4.924E-05 -2.09 40 0.08 1.23 4.36 13 Non-Metallic Minerals 3.302 13.07 -1.323E-04 -4.85 40 0.36 1.19 23.48 17 Gasoline, Ethanol 0.958 1.93 -1.997E-04 -2.94 40 0.17 2.81 8.66 25 Logs and Wood 2.853 9.36 -7.154E-04 -3.64 25 0.34 1.34 13.26 26 Wood Products 4.193 20.93 -2.530E-04 -6.54 40 0.51 0.98 42.73 27 Pulp, and Paper 3.481 17.03 -2.004E-03 -4.86 40 0.36 0.82 23.61 28 Paper Articles 5.032 21.54 -1.822E-03 -4.61 40 0.35 1.12 21.28 29 Printed Products 5.914 20.56 -8.272E-04 -2.59 35 0.14 1.19 6.70 32 Base Metal 4.010 26.89 -1.839E-04 -3.40 40 0.21 0.82 11.55 33 Articles of Base Metal 4.900 29.05 -1.543E-03 -2.90 40 0.16 1.07 8.39 39 Furniture 7.138 28.97 -2.006E-03 -6.33 30 0.57 0.76 40.02 10 Building Stone 4.457 9.37 -8.653E-05 -1.90 5 0.34 1.02 3.62 18 Fuel Oils 2.021 4.36 -3.876E-05 -0.30 25 -0.04 2.30 0.09 19 Coal Products 2.713 9.41 -4.766E-04 -1.72 40 0.05 1.36 2.96 24 Plastics and Rubber 3.658 25.47 -3.847E-04 -0.88 40 -0.01 0.72 0.77 30 Textiles 5.271 25.57 -4.115E-04 -1.23 40 0.01 1.28 1.51 31 Cements and Ceramics 3.206 20.63 -1.580E-04 -0.43 40 -0.02 0.91 0.19 41 Waste and Scrap 1.547 10.95 -3.169E-05 -0.59 40 -0.02 0.89 0.35 43 Mixed Freight 4.299 15.11 -1.775E-03 -1.86 40 0.06 1.26 3.44 Not Recommended: Conceptually Valid but Statistically Not Significant Recommended: Conceptually Valid and Statistically Significant Table 24. Market-share two-digit SCTG models, generalized cost (op. cost = 10%) SCTG Description a0 t-stat aGC25 z-stat Obs R2 RMSE F 06 Milled Grain Products 3.664 14.39 -1.391E-04 -3.31 40 0.20 1.46 10.94 07 Prepared Foodstuffs 3.640 18.31 -1.686E-04 -2.61 40 0.13 1.23 6.80 11 Natural Sands 1.474 4.96 -1.451E-04 -4.15 40 0.29 1.51 17.26 12 Gravel and Stone 1.784 7.02 -4.870E-05 -1.99 40 0.07 1.23 3.96 13 Non-Metallic Minerals 3.247 12.74 -1.414E-04 -4.56 40 0.33 1.22 20.77 26 Wood Products 4.068 20.65 -3.135E-04 -6.13 40 0.48 1.01 37.59 03 Agriculture 3.619 16.58 -1.980E-05 -1.29 40 0.02 1.29 1.65 10 Building Stone 4.442 9.40 -9.175E-05 -1.90 5 0.34 1.02 3.61 25 Logs and Wood 2.257 6.58 -1.962E-04 -0.73 25 -0.02 1.66 0.53 32 Base Metal 3.697 23.11 -9.320E-05 -0.74 40 -0.01 0.93 0.55 Not Recommended: Conceptually Valid but Statistically Not Significant Recommended: Conceptually Valid and Statistically Significant Table 25. Market-share two-digit SCTG models, generalized cost (op. cost = 25%)

Model Results 91 SCTG Description a0 z-stat ac z-stat 3.730 207.70 0.000 -30.69 02 Cereal Grains -0.920 -23.53 -2.670E-004 -34.31 03 Agriculture 0.438 9.08 -2.920E-005 -25.06 04 Animal Feed -0.445 -12.42 -5.138E-004 -28.67 05 Meat, Poultry, Fish 1.748 23.19 -1.321E-004 -23.56 06 Milled Grain Products -0.116 -3.19 -4.500E-005 -30.08 07 Prepared Foodstuffs 0.521 16.97 -8.820E-005 -59.03 08 Alcoholic Beverages 1.578 27.04 -8.384E-004 -46.23 11 Natural Sands -0.871 -21.87 -2.173E-004 -37.35 12 Gravel and Stone 0.132 3.44 -1.041E-004 -17.88 13 Non-Metallic Minerals -0.935 -20.19 -6.760E-005 -21.82 17 Gasoline, Ethanol 0.493 7.15 -4.635E-004 -42.72 18 Fuel Oils 1.359 17.47 -3.169E-004 -11.08 19 Coal Products 0.969 22.48 -5.614E-004 -39.63 20 Basic Chemicals -0.965 -37.74 -2.449E-004 -18.34 22 Fertilizers -1.131 -31.27 -1.118E-003 -33.76 23 Other Chemicals 0.649 17.02 -4.104E-004 -24.00 24 Plastics and Rubber 0.204 7.66 -2.047E-004 -18.02 26 Wood Products 0.563 17.64 -1.325E-004 -59.59 27 Pulp, and Paper -0.191 -5.31 -4.774E-004 -43.06 28 Paper Articles 1.465 26.42 -6.650E-004 -40.27 29 Printed Products 2.663 27.87 -6.435E-004 -20.30 31 Cements and Ceramics 0.205 7.04 -6.417E-004 -46.59 32 Base Metal 0.489 15.99 -7.380E-005 -24.57 33 Articles of Base Metal 1.504 33.12 -4.887E-004 -27.68 34 Machinery 1.826 31.58 -3.578E-004 -18.17 35 Electronics 2.003 29.23 -3.433E-004 -19.03 36 Motorized Vehicles 0.261 8.40 -1.332E-004 -7.61 38 Precision Instruments 1.380 13.82 -2.377E-004 -6.75 39 Furniture 2.907 24.45 -5.926E-004 -14.76 40 Misc. Manufacturing 2.297 30.14 -5.911E-004 -22.79 41 Waste and Scrap -1.660 -61.03 -1.026E-004 -16.93 43 Mixed Freight 1.967 42.11 -7.976E-004 -45.92 Obs. Wald (68) p-value q 2,235,000 59,160 0 0.16 Generic Parameter for All Commodity Specific Parameters to Be Added to Generic Parameter Model Fit Table 26. Shipment-level models, unweighted, pooled, freight rates. SCTG Description a0 z-stat aC z-stat aT z-stat Obs Wald (2) p- value Log Lik. q VOT 37 Transport Equip. 3.183 43.52 -2.665E-03 -14.94 -3.524E-03 -13.50 11,000 282.7 0.00 -1472 0.10 0.76 21 Pharmaceuticals 5.816 47.64 -1.116E-03 -2.24 -9.703E-04 -1.68 30,000 48.27 0.00 -764 0.02 1.15 28 Paper Articles 5.094 90.98 -9.943E-04 -13.72 -3.200E-04 -4.58 62,000 1670 0.00 -3365 0.16 3.11 Table 27. Shipment-level models, unweighted, two-digit SCTG, transit times, and freight rates. Pooled Models Two-Digit SCTG Models

92 Impacts of Policy-Induced Freight Modal Shifts Generalized Cost Models This section presents the unweighted shipment-level models that consider generalized costs as independent variables (see Tables 28 through 31). Pooled Models SCTG Description a0 z-stat aGC5 z-stat 2.501 112.4 -1.310E-06 -31.41 02 Cereal Grains -0.091 -2.50 -4.860E-005 -8.40 03 Agriculture 1.466 31.20 -2.190E-005 -16.33 04 Animal Feed 0.714 19.41 - - 05 Meat, Poultry, Fish 2.853 38.51 -1.033E-004 -12.97 06 Milled Grain Products 1.100 28.35 -4.490E-005 -28.06 07 Prepared Foodstuffs 1.628 50.05 -8.600E-005 -53.09 08 Alcoholic Beverages 2.082 45.74 - - 11 Natural Sands 0.331 7.95 -2.162E-004 -36.56 12 Gravel and Stone 1.369 33.74 -1.050E-004 -17.94 13 Non-Metallic Minerals 0.275 5.73 -6.980E-005 -21.38 17 Gasoline, Ethanol 1.123 20.90 -3.599E-004 -43.16 18 Fuel Oils 2.607 33.59 - - 19 Coal Products 2.066 49.48 - - 20 Basic Chemicals 0.130 4.68 - - 21 Pharmaceuticals 2.999 30.96 - - 22 Fertilizers -0.165 -4.68 - - 23 Other Chemicals 1.637 44.88 - - 24 Plastics and Rubber 1.307 46.24 - - 25 Logs and Wood 1.703 50.34 -1.302E-004 -55.63 26 Wood Products 0.343 11.09 - - 27 Pulp, and Paper 2.180 44.83 -4.568E-004 -19.75 28 Paper Articles 3.106 45.33 - - 29 Printed Products 2.027 45.83 - - 31 Cements and Ceramics 1.254 41.34 - - 32 Base Metal 1.573 48.88 -1.550E-005 -3.03 33 Articles of Base Metal 2.310 57.98 - - 34 Machinery 2.580 55.83 - - 35 Electronics 2.562 52.09 - - 36 Motorized Vehicles 1.513 44.61 - - 37 Transport Equipment 0.819 14.33 - - 38 Precision Instruments 2.245 29.05 - - 39 Furniture 3.622 35.32 -3.245E-004 -6.18 40 Misc. Manufacturing 2.671 51.40 - - 41 Waste and Scrap -0.491 -16.44 -6.200E-005 -8.51 43 Mixed Freight 2.727 65.68 -1.277E-004 -2.70 Obs. Wald (51) p-value q 2,210,000 47,790 0 0.13 Commodity Specific Parameters to Be Added to Generic Parameter Generic Parameter for All Model Fit Table 28. Shipment-level models, unweighted, pooled, generalized cost (op. cost = 5%).

Model Results 93 Two-Digit SCTG Models SCTG Description a0 z-stat aGC5 z-stat Obs Wald (1) p-value Log Lik. q 02 Cereal Grains 2.410 83.32 -4.990E-05 -8.63 16,000 74.41 0.00 -4,630 0.02 03 Agriculture 3.967 95.82 -2.320E-05 -17.32 34,000 299.90 0.00 -3,676 0.04 05 Meat, Poultry, Fish 5.353 75.77 -1.046E-04 -13.13 43,000 172.40 0.00 -1,475 0.16 06 Milled Grain Products 3.601 113.30 -4.620E-05 -28.89 40,000 834.40 0.00 -5,688 0.09 07 Prepared Foodstuffs 4.129 173.90 -8.730E-05 -53.91 120,000 2907.00 0.00 -11,890 0.09 11 Natural Sands 2.832 80.47 -2.175E-04 -36.78 17,000 1353.00 0.00 -3,654 0.20 12 Gravel and Stone 3.870 114.00 -1.063E-04 -18.17 46,000 330.00 0.00 -4,336 0.04 13 Non-Metallic Minerals 2.776 65.31 -7.110E-05 -21.78 11,000 474.40 0.00 -2,865 0.09 17 Gasoline, Ethanol 3.623 74.10 -3.612E-04 -43.31 20,000 1876.00 0.00 -2,224 0.45 26 Wood Products 4.204 164.80 -1.315E-04 -56.20 110,000 3158.00 0.00 -9,840 0.11 28 Paper Articles 4.680 108.30 -4.581E-04 -19.81 61,000 392.40 0.00 -3,816 0.04 32 Base Metal 4.073 175.20 -1.680E-05 -3.28 120,000 10.78 0.00 -10,160 0.02 39 Furniture 6.123 61.17 -3.258E-04 -6.20 56,000 38.47 0.00 -1,118 0.05 41 Waste and Scrap 2.009 100.70 -6.330E-05 -8.69 24,000 75.43 0.00 -8,781 0.02 21 Pharmaceuticals 5.495 58.28 -1.600E-05 -0.79 28,000 0.63 0.43 -734 0.06 40 Misc. Manufacturing 5.171 110.10 -5.810E-09 0.00 81,000 0.00 1.00 -2,815 0.01 Recommended: Conceptually Valid and Statistically Significant Not Recommended: Conceptually Valid but Statistically Not Significant Table 29. Shipment-level models, unweighted, two-digit SCTG, generalized cost (op. cost = 5%). SCTG Description a0 z-stat aGC10 z-stat Obs Wald (1) p-value Log Lik. q 03 Agriculture 3.791 98.67 -7.580E-06 -4.06 34,000 16.52 0.00 -3,782 0.01 05 Meat, Poultry, Fish 5.193 79.40 -5.270E-05 -4.09 43,000 16.71 0.00 -1,521 0.14 06 Milled Grain Products 3.563 114.00 -4.460E-05 -26.52 40,000 703.50 0.00 -5,738 0.08 07 Prepared Foodstuffs 4.003 178.30 -7.630E-05 -42.93 120,000 1843.00 0.00 -12,290 0.06 11 Natural Sands 2.797 80.93 -2.106E-04 -35.56 17,000 1264.00 0.00 -3,724 0.19 12 Gravel and Stone 3.867 114.10 -1.043E-04 -17.77 46,000 315.90 0.00 -4,346 0.04 13 Non-Metallic Minerals 2.742 65.42 -6.820E-05 -20.59 11,000 423.80 0.00 -2,889 0.08 17 Gasoline, Ethanol 3.240 81.48 -2.735E-04 -39.94 20,000 1595.00 0.00 -3,024 0.26 26 Wood Products 4.117 167.80 -1.222E-04 -49.60 110,000 2460.00 0.00 -10,150 0.08 41 Waste and Scrap 2.007 100.50 -4.980E-06 -1.43 24,000 2.06 0.15 -8,822 0.01 21 Pharmaceuticals 5.493 58.09 -3.040E-06 -0.62 28,000 0.38 0.54 -735 0.06 Recommended: Conceptually Valid and Statistically Significant Not Recommended: Conceptually Valid but Statistically Not Significant Table 30: Shipment-level models, unweighted, two-digit SCTG, generalized cost (op. cost = 10%). SCTG Description a0 z-stat aGC25 z-stat Obs Wald (1) p-value Log Lik. q 06 Milled Grain Products 3.448 116.60 -3.500E-05 -17.26 40,000 297.80 0.00 -5,887 0.06 11 Natural Sands 2.698 82.27 -1.832E-04 -31.25 17,000 976.60 0.00 -3,951 0.14 12 Gravel and Stone 3.861 114.40 -9.760E-05 -16.34 46,000 267.00 0.00 -4,377 0.04 13 Non-Metallic Minerals 2.643 65.66 -5.640E-05 -16.05 11,000 257.50 0.00 -2,965 0.06 26 Wood Products 3.875 176.50 -6.000E-05 -16.27 110,000 264.60 0.00 -10,960 0.01 21 Pharmaceuticals 5.494 57.99 -7.960E-07 -0.55 28,000 0.30 0.58 -735 0.06 Recommended: Conceptually Valid and Statistically Significant Not Recommended: Conceptually Valid but Statistically Not Significant Table 31. Shipment-level models, unweighted, two-digit SCTG, generalized cost (op. cost = 25%).

94 Impacts of Policy-Induced Freight Modal Shifts Shipment-Level Models: Weighted—Domestic Cargo (Dom-Weight) This section presents the shipment-level models with sample weighted for the domestic cargo mode share by commodity, as published in FAF Version 4 (FAF 2018). Tables 32 to 37 pre- sent the shipment-level models using the weighted sample. As with the previous set of models, wherever the transit time variable has been found to be not statistically significant, it has been excluded from the tables. Transit Time and Freight Rate Models This section presents the domestic-weight shipment-level models that consider freight rate or transit times as separate independent variables (see Tables 32 and 33). Pooled Models SCTG Description a0 z-stat aC z-stat 0.971 13.95 -5.820E-06 -7.58 02 Cereal Grains 1.053 13.44 -3.711E-04 -19.76 03 Agriculture 2.424 29.88 -2.790E-05 -21.63 04 Animal Feed 1.830 24.16 -6.395E-04 -13.03 05 Meat, Poultry, Fish 4.837 49.53 -1.287E-04 -25.91 06 Milled Grain Products 1.277 16.87 -5.150E-05 -27.52 07 Prepared Foodstuffs 2.173 29.69 -9.480E-05 -56.11 08 Alcoholic Beverages 2.699 31.51 -1.050E-03 -46.2 09 Tobacco Products 2.611 34.22 -1.481E-04 -11.83 11 Natural Sands 2.107 27.25 -1.245E-04 -10.39 12 Gravel and Stone 1.328 16.51 -6.960E-05 -20.14 13 Non-Metallic Minerals 3.551 38.21 -4.324E-04 -24.35 17 Gasoline, Ethanol 3.098 29.63 -3.323E-04 -4.92 18 Fuel Oils 1.360 16.73 -7.386E-04 -12.09 19 Coal Products - - -2.495E-04 -1.38 20 Basic Chemicals 5.337 39.95 -2.711E-04 -7.11 22 Fertilizers 0.251 3.27 -1.615E-03 -26.22 23 Other Chemicals 2.113 27.5 -4.263E-04 -25.59 24 Plastics and Rubber 0.197 2.73 -2.024E-04 -16.39 25 Logs and Wood 2.659 36.02 -1.414E-04 -52.57 26 Wood Products 1.318 17.41 -5.420E-04 -44.83 27 Pulp, and Paper 3.018 35.29 -7.133E-04 -40.46 28 Paper Articles 5.894 53.88 -6.399E-04 -24.64 29 Printed Products 5.062 54.62 -4.346E-04 -26.64 31 Cements and Ceramics 2.536 34.74 -6.583E-04 -46.63 32 Base Metal 1.190 16.18 -8.300E-05 -27.71 33 Articles of Base Metal 2.625 33.17 -5.176E-04 -35.27 34 Machinery 4.597 53.58 -3.554E-04 -22.25 35 Electronics 5.767 63.91 -3.395E-04 -24.76 36 Motorized Vehicles 2.889 38.99 -1.308E-04 -6.8 38 Precision Instruments 7.475 65.35 -2.341E-04 -8.13 39 Furniture 6.512 53.2 -5.882E-04 -19.71 40 Misc. Manufacturing 4.786 48.41 -5.898E-04 -24.61 41 Waste and Scrap 2.135 29.13 -1.055E-04 -7.74 43 Mixed Freight 5.434 68.08 -7.773E-04 -53.74 Obs. Wald (70) p-value q 2,235,000 104,400 0 0.27 Commodity Specific Parameters to Be Added to Generic Parameter Generic Parameter for All Model Fit Table 32. Shipment-level models, dom-weight, pooled, transit times, and freight rates.

Model Results 95 Generalized Cost Models This section presents the domestic-weight shipment-level models that consider generalized costs as independent variables (see Tables 34 through 37). Pooled Models SCTG Description a0 z-stat aC z-stat aT z-stat Obs Wald (<15) p-value Log Lik. q VOT 21 Pharmaceuticals 6.251 53.34 -1.115E-03 -2.33 -9.689E-04 -1.74 30,000 1.00 1.15 28 Paper Articles 3.915 74.02 -9.689E-04 -8.45 -2.431E-04 -2.27 62,000 1.00 3.99 37 Transport Equip. 0.899 12.37 -3.634E-03 -15.63 -4.640E-03 -14.66 11,000 62.72 1681 265.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 -529 -8537 -5416 1.00 0.78 Table 33. Shipment-level models, dom-weight, two-digit SCTG, transit times, and freight rates. Two-Digit SCTG Models SCTG Description a0 z-stat aGC5 z-stat 1.068 38.30 -9.440E-07 -8.72 02 Cereal Grains 0.371 8.08 -2.610E-05 -1.25 03 Agriculture 2.114 33.38 -2.210E-05 -7.36 04 Animal Feed 1.658 40.97 - - 05 Meat, Poultry, Fish 4.620 63.30 -1.032E-04 -16.85 06 Milled Grain Products 1.155 28.09 -5.290E-05 -29.46 07 Prepared Foodstuffs 1.945 54.75 -9.510E-05 -57.33 08 Alcoholic Beverages 1.686 34.75 - - 11 Natural Sands 2.502 60.19 -1.511E-04 -12.55 12 Gravel and Stone 2.020 45.95 -1.259E-04 -10.42 13 Non-Metallic Minerals 1.210 24.66 -7.450E-05 -20.73 17 Gasoline, Ethanol 2.893 33.25 -3.563E-04 -12.77 18 Fuel Oils 3.005 37.84 - - 19 Coal Products 1.073 23.84 - - 20 Basic Chemicals -0.352 -10.84 - - 21 Pharmaceuticals 4.863 49.46 -1.510E-05 -1.21 22 Fertilizers -0.250 -6.41 - - 23 Other Chemicals 1.763 43.90 - - 24 Plastics and Rubber -0.026 -0.80 - - 25 Logs and Wood 2.466 66.85 -1.411E-04 -51.25 26 Wood Products 0.427 12.14 - - 27 Pulp, and Paper 2.352 39.02 -4.654E-04 -10.63 28 Paper Articles 5.013 71.08 - - 29 Printed Products 4.068 85.99 - - 31 Cements and Ceramics 2.255 65.00 - - 32 Base Metal 0.921 23.99 -1.300E-05 -1.06 33 Articles of Base Metal 2.077 48.06 - - 34 Machinery 4.027 81.90 - - 35 Electronics 5.003 96.30 - - 36 Motorized Vehicles 2.815 74.32 - - 37 Transport Equipment -0.199 -3.35 - - 38 Precision Instruments 7.017 88.70 - - 39 Furniture 5.904 56.73 -3.246E-04 -6.15 40 Misc. Manufacturing 3.833 70.19 - - 41 Waste and Scrap 1.977 57.06 -7.460E-05 -3.10 43 Mixed Freight 4.881 106.50 -1.295E-04 -1.08 Obs. Wald (50) p-value q 2,210,000 93,490 0 0.23 Commodity Specific Parameters to Be Added to Generic Parameter Generic Parameter for All Model Fit Table 34. Shipment-level models, dom-weight, pooled, generalized cost (op. cost = 5%).

96 Impacts of Policy-Induced Freight Modal Shifts Two-Digit SCTG Models SCTG Description a0 z-stat aGC5 z-stat Obs Wald (<15) p-value Log Lik. q 02 Cereal Grains 1.439 39.44 -2.700E-05 -1.29 16,000 1.67 0.20 -7,902 0.02 03 Agriculture 3.182 55.94 -2.300E-05 -7.68 34,000 59.04 0.00 -6,550 0.04 05 Meat, Poultry, Fish 5.688 84.33 -1.041E-04 -17.01 43,000 289.40 0.00 -1,116 0.16 06 Milled Grain Products 2.222 73.57 -5.380E-05 -30.04 40,000 902.60 0.00 -14,210 0.11 07 Prepared Foodstuffs 3.013 136.80 -9.600E-05 -58.02 120,000 3367.00 0.00 -26,670 0.12 11 Natural Sands 3.570 115.80 -1.520E-04 -12.63 17,000 159.60 0.00 -2,156 0.14 12 Gravel and Stone 3.088 90.85 -1.268E-04 -10.50 46,000 110.30 0.00 -7,725 0.05 13 Non-Metallic Minerals 2.278 56.41 -7.540E-05 -21.00 11,000 441.10 0.00 -3,877 0.10 17 Gasoline, Ethanol 3.961 48.05 -3.572E-04 -12.80 20,000 163.80 0.00 -1,732 0.45 21 Pharmaceuticals 5.930 62.90 -1.600E-05 -1.28 28,000 1.64 0.20 -508 0.06 26 Wood Products 3.534 146.30 -1.420E-04 -51.64 110,000 2666.00 0.00 -16,330 0.13 28 Paper Articles 3.420 63.99 -4.664E-04 -10.65 61,000 113.40 0.00 -10,040 0.05 32 Base Metal 1.989 75.33 -1.390E-05 -1.14 120,000 1.29 0.26 -43,650 0.02 39 Furniture 6.972 69.53 -3.256E-04 -6.17 56,000 38.02 0.00 -539 0.05 40 Misc. Manufacturing 4.900 104.40 -6.130E-09 -0.01 81,000 0.00 1.00 -3,523 0.01 41 Waste and Scrap 3.045 148.10 -7.550E-05 -3.14 24,000 9.89 0.00 -4,457 0.02 43 Mixed Freight 5.949 163.50 -1.304E-04 -1.09 150,000 1.19 0.28 -2,806 0.03 Table 35. Shipment-level models, dom-weight, two-digit SCTG, generalized cost (op. cost = 5%). SCTG Description a0 z-stat aGC10 z-stat Obs Wald (<15) p-value Log Lik. q 03 Agriculture 2.999 36.83 -6.480E-06 -0.66 34,000 0.43 0.51 -6,767 0.01 05 Meat, Poultry, Fish 5.528 85.04 -5.270E-05 -4.62 43,000 21.39 0.00 -1,149 0.14 06 Milled Grain Products 2.177 71.95 -5.130E-05 -26.38 40,000 695.70 0.00 -14,390 0.10 07 Prepared Foodstuffs 2.870 131.10 -8.220E-05 -42.18 120,000 1779.00 0.00 -27,870 0.08 11 Natural Sands 3.551 116.10 -1.497E-04 -12.96 17,000 168.10 0.00 -2,179 0.13 12 Gravel and Stone 3.086 90.92 -1.224E-04 -9.43 46,000 88.88 0.00 -7,751 0.05 13 Non-Metallic Minerals 2.240 54.32 -7.170E-05 -18.52 11,000 343.00 0.00 -3,917 0.09 17 Gasoline, Ethanol 3.588 40.44 -2.815E-04 -7.11 20,000 50.50 0.00 -2,319 0.26 21 Pharmaceuticals 5.928 62.86 -3.040E-06 -1.75 28,000 3.07 0.08 -508 0.06 26 Wood Products 3.438 142.60 -1.310E-04 -42.15 110,000 1777.00 0.00 -16,940 0.10 41 Waste and Scrap 3.043 148.60 -6.100E-06 -0.63 24,000 0.40 0.53 -4,479 0.01 Table 36. Shipment-level models, dom-weight, two-digit SCTG, generalized cost (op. cost = 10%). SCTG Description a0 z-stat aGC25 z-stat Obs Wald (<15) p-value Log Lik. q 06 Milled Grain Products 2.038 66.29 -3.760E-05 -12.69 40,000 161.10 0.00 -14,930 0.06 11 Natural Sands 3.489 114.10 -1.365E-04 -12.16 17,000 147.90 0.00 -2,257 0.10 12 Gravel and Stone 3.080 91.26 -1.087E-04 -5.81 46,000 33.72 0.00 -7,825 0.04 13 Non-Metallic Minerals 2.130 43.59 -5.720E-05 -8.58 11,000 73.69 0.00 -4,037 0.06 26 Wood Products 3.173 128.10 -5.950E-05 -7.14 110,000 50.95 0.00 -18,530 0.01 Table 37. Shipment-level models, dom-weight, two-digit SCTG, generalized cost (op. cost = 25%).

Model Results 97 Shipment-Level Models: Weighted—Total Cargo (Total-Weight) This section presents the shipment-level models with sample weighted for the total (includ- ing imports and exports) cargo mode share by commodity (FAF 2018). As in previous sections, wherever the transit time variable has been found to be not statistically significant, it has been excluded from the tables. Transit Time and Freight Rate Models This section presents the total-weight shipment-level models that consider transit time and freight rate as separate independent variables (see Tables 38 and 39). Pooled Models SCTG Description a0 z-stat aC z-stat 1.349 45.14 -6.710E-006 -7.51 02 Cereal Grains 0.643 13.74 -3.746E-04 -19.88 03 Agriculture 1.925 37.49 -2.730E-05 -19.79 04 Animal Feed 1.221 28.98 -7.375E-04 -12.60 05 Meat, Poultry, Fish 3.880 51.70 -1.299E-04 -24.88 06 Milled Grain Products 0.877 20.78 -5.090E-05 -26.27 07 Prepared Foodstuffs 1.719 45.81 -9.490E-05 -53.53 08 Alcoholic Beverages 2.036 34.52 -1.113E-03 -45.64 11 Natural Sands 1.962 44.18 -1.718E-04 -12.95 12 Gravel and Stone 1.691 37.48 -1.248E-04 -10.34 13 Non-Metallic Minerals 0.656 12.98 -7.210E-05 -19.37 17 Gasoline, Ethanol 3.088 45.47 -4.392E-04 -24.39 18 Fuel Oils 1.904 22.40 -2.951E-04 -4.61 19 Coal Products 0.982 19.03 -7.377E-04 -12.07 20 Basic Chemicals -0.640 -6.00 -1.938E-04 -0.98 21 Pharmaceuticals 2.368 20.11 -2.731E-04 -7.14 22 Fertilizers -0.260 -5.85 -1.652E-03 -26.41 23 Other Chemicals 1.595 35.97 -4.287E-04 -25.28 24 Plastics and Rubber -0.234 -6.49 -2.014E-04 -16.28 26 Wood Products 1.818 46.52 -1.507E-04 -52.19 27 Pulp, and Paper 0.752 17.71 -5.549E-04 -44.76 28 Paper Articles 2.609 44.92 -7.142E-04 -40.30 29 Printed Products 4.633 51.73 -6.418E-04 -24.61 30 Textiles 3.740 54.75 -4.350E-04 -26.45 31 Cements and Ceramics 2.062 55.45 -6.625E-04 -46.27 32 Base Metal 0.693 18.15 -8.360E-05 -27.00 33 Articles of Base Metal 1.989 41.25 -5.276E-04 -34.52 34 Machinery 2.749 46.91 -3.608E-04 -21.97 35 Electronics 3.653 56.21 -3.425E-04 -24.41 36 Motorized Vehicles 1.005 25.62 -1.281E-04 -6.72 37 Transport Equipment -0.278 -3.82 -3.740E-05 -1.60 38 Precision Instruments 2.789 29.09 -2.364E-04 -8.07 39 Furniture 4.372 41.39 -5.946E-04 -19.28 40 Misc. Manufacturing 4.002 52.22 -5.911E-04 -24.36 41 Waste and Scrap 1.600 42.37 -1.042E-04 -7.48 43 Mixed Freight 4.828 97.98 -7.810E-04 -53.07 Obs. Wald (70) p-value q 2,235,000 77,470 0 0.23 Commodity Specific Parameters to Be Added to Generic Parameter Generic Parameter for All Model Fit Table 38. Shipment-level models, total-weight, pooled, transit times and freight rates.

98 Impacts of Policy-Induced Freight Modal Shifts Two-Digit SCTG Models SCTG Description a0 z-stat aC z-stat aT z-stat Obs Wald (<15) p-value Log Lik. q VOT 21 Pharmaceuticals 3.661 31.23 -1.143E-03 -2.29 -9.969E-04 -1.72 30,000 1.15 28 Paper Articles 3.886 73.35 -9.673E-04 -8.42 -2.397E-04 -2.23 62,000 4.04 37 Transport Equip. 1.004 13.95 -3.561E-03 -15.83 -4.556E-03 -14.85 11,000 62.93 1672 272.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 -4,260 -8,730 -5,244 0.03 0.19 0.17 0.78 Table 39. Shipment-level models, total-weight, two-digit SCTG, transit times, and freight rates. Generalized Cost Models This section presents the total-weight shipment-level models that consider generalized costs as independent variables (see Tables 40 through 43). Pooled Models SCTG Description a0 z-stat aGC5 z-stat 1.157 38.14 -9.590E-07 -9.00 02 Cereal Grains 0.242 5.13 -2.500E-05 -1.23 03 Agriculture 1.901 29.34 -2.200E-05 -7.20 04 Animal Feed 1.331 31.56 - - 05 Meat, Poultry, Fish 3.946 53.33 -1.042E-04 -16.51 06 Milled Grain Products 1.043 24.37 -5.300E-05 -29.41 07 Prepared Foodstuffs 1.780 47.46 -9.600E-05 -56.93 08 Alcoholic Beverages 1.257 25.16 - - 11 Natural Sands 2.136 48.38 -1.746E-04 -13.34 12 Gravel and Stone 1.893 41.55 -1.269E-04 -10.42 13 Non-Metallic Minerals 0.827 16.24 -7.780E-05 -20.17 17 Gasoline, Ethanol 2.022 45.80 - - 18 Fuel Oils 2.083 25.94 - - 19 Coal Products 0.984 21.13 - - 20 Basic Chemicals -0.568 -16.41 - - 21 Pharmaceuticals 2.180 22.01 -1.520E-05 -1.21 22 Fertilizers -0.484 -11.86 - - 23 Other Chemicals 1.531 36.54 - - 24 Plastics and Rubber -0.168 -4.81 - - 26 Wood Products 1.908 48.83 -1.512E-04 -50.20 27 Pulp, and Paper 0.130 3.49 - - 28 Paper Articles 2.230 36.23 -4.656E-04 -10.56 29 Printed Products 4.038 56.45 - - 30 Textiles 3.033 62.16 - - 31 Cements and Ceramics 2.069 56.38 - - 32 Base Metal 0.710 17.66 -1.260E-05 -1.03 33 Articles of Base Metal 1.721 38.38 - - 34 Machinery 2.460 48.62 - - 35 Electronics 3.171 59.49 - - 36 Motorized Vehicles 1.220 30.73 - - 37 Transport Equipment -0.171 -2.81 - - 38 Precision Instruments 2.615 32.69 - - 39 Furniture 4.044 38.48 -3.255E-04 -6.10 40 Misc. Manufacturing 3.335 59.66 - - 41 Waste and Scrap 1.731 47.26 -7.330E-05 -3.03 43 Mixed Freight 4.561 96.29 -1.291E-04 -1.08 Obs. Wald (60) p-value q 2,210,000 64,310 0 0.19 Commodity Specific Parameters to Be Added to Generic Parameter Generic Parameter for All Model Fit Table 40. Shipment-level models, total-weight, pooled, generalized cost (op. cost = 5%).

Model Results 99 Two-Digit SCTG Models Table 43. Shipment-level models, total-weight, two-digit SCTG, generalized cost (op. cost = 25%). SCTG Description a0 z-stat aGC25 z-stat Obs Wald (<15) p-value Log Lik. q 06 Milled Grain Products 2.015 65.48 -3.770E-05 -12.62 40,000 159.40 0.00 -15,120 0.06 11 Natural Sands 3.196 101.70 -1.533E-04 -12.19 17,000 148.60 0.00 -2,798 0.11 12 Gravel and Stone 3.042 90.15 -1.092E-04 -5.72 46,000 32.77 0.00 -8,040 0.04 13 Non-Metallic Minerals 1.822 35.87 -5.750E-05 -7.75 11,000 60.13 0.00 -4,745 0.06 21 Pharmaceuticals 3.335 35.36 -8.080E-07 -1.91 28,000 3.66 0.06 -4,137 0.06 26 Wood Products 2.672 106.40 -5.860E-05 -6.52 110,000 42.48 0.00 -26,240 0.01 SCTG Description a0 z-stat aGC5 z-stat Obs Wald (<15) p-value Log Lik. q 02 Cereal Grains 1.399 38.68 -2.600E-05 -1.28 16,000 1.63 0.20 -8,041 0.02 03 Agriculture 3.058 53.40 -2.300E-05 -7.52 34,000 56.57 0.00 -7,139 0.04 05 Meat, Poultry, Fish 5.103 75.61 -1.052E-04 -16.66 43,000 277.70 0.00 -1,813 0.16 06 Milled Grain Products 2.200 72.81 -5.400E-05 -29.99 40,000 899.50 0.00 -14,380 0.11 07 Prepared Foodstuffs 2.937 133.10 -9.700E-05 -57.61 120,000 3319.00 0.00 -28,060 0.12 11 Natural Sands 3.293 102.60 -1.756E-04 -13.42 17,000 180.00 0.00 -2,647 0.16 12 Gravel and Stone 3.050 89.73 -1.279E-04 -10.50 46,000 110.30 0.00 -7,936 0.05 13 Non-Metallic Minerals 1.984 48.52 -7.880E-05 -20.43 11,000 417.40 0.00 -4,539 0.10 17 Gasoline, Ethanol 3.866 46.38 -3.587E-04 -12.34 20,000 152.20 0.00 -1,860 0.45 21 Pharmaceuticals 3.337 35.39 -1.620E-05 -1.29 28,000 1.67 0.20 -4,131 0.06 26 Wood Products 3.065 124.40 -1.522E-04 -50.55 110,000 2556.00 0.00 -22,750 0.15 28 Paper Articles 3.387 63.23 -4.666E-04 -10.59 61,000 112.00 0.00 -10,280 0.05 32 Base Metal 1.867 70.71 -1.350E-05 -1.10 120,000 1.22 0.27 -46,720 0.02 39 Furniture 5.201 51.69 -3.265E-04 -6.11 56,000 37.37 0.00 -2,416 0.05 41 Waste and Scrap 2.888 140.60 -7.430E-05 -3.07 24,000 9.41 0.00 -4,979 0.02 43 Mixed Freight 5.718 157.20 -1.301E-04 -1.09 150,000 1.18 0.28 -3,416 0.03 Table 41. Shipment-level models, total-weight, two-digit SCTG, generalized cost (op. cost = 5%). SCTG Description a0 z-stat aGC10 z-stat Obs Wald (<15) p-value Log Lik. q 03 Agriculture 2.874 35.28 -6.220E-06 -0.63 34,000 0.40 0.53 -7,380 0.01 05 Meat, Poultry, Fish 4.941 76.00 -5.280E-05 -4.60 43,000 21.15 0.00 -1,873 0.14 06 Milled Grain Products 2.155 71.17 -5.150E-05 -26.31 40,000 692.30 0.00 -14,570 0.10 07 Prepared Foodstuffs 2.792 127.20 -8.280E-05 -41.80 120,000 1747.00 0.00 -29,350 0.08 11 Natural Sands 3.269 103.50 -1.713E-04 -13.52 17,000 182.70 0.00 -2,681 0.15 12 Gravel and Stone 3.048 89.81 -1.234E-04 -9.38 46,000 88.07 0.00 -7,963 0.05 13 Non-Metallic Minerals 1.942 46.28 -7.430E-05 -17.70 11,000 313.20 0.00 -4,591 0.09 17 Gasoline, Ethanol 3.489 39.04 -2.797E-04 -6.88 20,000 47.31 0.00 -2,501 0.26 21 Pharmaceuticals 3.334 35.35 -3.080E-06 -1.76 28,000 3.09 0.08 -4,135 0.06 26 Wood Products 2.960 119.90 -1.396E-04 -39.48 110,000 1559.00 0.00 -23,710 0.11 41 Waste and Scrap 2.887 141.20 -5.960E-06 -0.64 24,000 0.41 0.52 -5,003 0.01 Table 42. Shipment-level models, total-weight, two-digit SCTG, generalized cost (op. cost = 10%).

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In recent public policy debates, much emphasis has been placed on proposals to shift freight from highways to rail. This emphasis is based on goals of reducing emissions and highway congestion. However, prudent planning requires an understanding of the basics of mode choices, what could change those choices, and what the impacts will be.

The TRB National Cooperative Freight Research Program's NCFRP Research Report 40: Impacts of Policy-Induced Freight Modal Shifts provides public policymakers with the factors that shippers and carriers consider when choosing freight modes and provides an analytical methodology to quantify the probability and outcomes of policy-induced modal shifts.

This is the final report of the NCFRP Program, which ends on December 31, 2019. NCFRP has covered a range of issues to improve the efficiency, reliability, safety, and security of the nation's freight transportation system.

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