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AN EVALUATION OF THE U.S. NAVY'S EXTREMELY LOW FREQUENCY COMMUNICATIONS SYSTEM ECOLOGICAL MONITORING PROGRAM Committee to Evaluate the U.S. Navy's Extremely Low Frequency Communications System Ecological Monitoring Program Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology Commission on Life Sciences National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS WASHINGTON, D.C., ~ 997
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Avenue, NVV Washington, DC 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The project was supported by contract DAMD 17-89-C-9086 between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Department of Defense. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authoress and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for this project. Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 96-70733 International Standard Book Number 0-309-05590-3 Additional copies of this report are available from: National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Ave., NW Box 285 Washington, DC 20055 800-624-6242 or 202-334-3313 (in the Washington Metropolitan Area) http://www.nap.edu Copyright 1997 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America.
COMMI! ILK TO EVALUATE THE U.S. NAVY'S EXTREMELY LOW FREQUENCY COMMUNICATIONS SYSTEM ECOLOGICAL MONITORING PROGRAM DUNCAN T. PATTEN (Chair), Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona OM P. GANDHI, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah THOMAS GETTY, Michigan State Universy, Hickory Corners, Michigan WIGWAM E. GORDON, Rice University, Houston, Texas I. WOODLAND HASTINGS, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts PETER KAREIVA, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington JAMES C. LlN, University of Illinois, Chicago, Illinois ROBERT G. ObsEN,Washington State University, Pullman, Washington JOHN PASTOR, University of Minnesota, Duluth, Minnesota BEVERLY J. RATHCKE, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan ANTONIO SASTRE, Midwest Research Tnstitute, Kansas City, Missouri LAWRENCE A. SHEPP, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey and AT&T Bell Laboratories, Murray Hill, New Jersey Staff RAYMOND A. WASSEL, Project Director and Program Director for Environmental Sciences and Engineering BONNIE A. SCARBOROUGH, Research Assistant RUTH P. DANOFF, Senior Project Assistant NORMAN GROSSBLATT, Editor KATE~NE TVERSON, Information Specialist Sponsor: U.S. Department of Defense ·~.
BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES AND TOXICOLOGY PAUL G. RISSER (Chair), Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon MAY R. BERENBAUM, University of Illinois, Urbana, TIlinois EULA BINGHAM, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, Ohio PAUL BUSCH, Malcolm Pirnie, Tnc., White Plains, New York EDWIN H. CLARK II, Clean Sites, Inc., Alexandria, Virginia ELLIS COWLING, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina GEORGE P. DASTON, The Procter & Gamble Co., Cincinnati, Ohio PETER L. DEFUR, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, Virginia DAVID L. EATON, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington DIANA FRECKMAN, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, Colorado ROBERT A. FROSCH, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts DANIEL KREWSN, Health & Welfare Canada, Ottawa, Ontario RAYMOND C. LOEHR, The University of Texas, Austin, Texas WARREN MUIR, Hampshire Research Tnstitute, Alexandria, Virginia GORDON ORIANS, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington GEOFFREY PLACE, Hilton Head, South Carolina BURTON H. SINGER, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey MARGARET STRAND, Bayh, Connaughton and Malone, Washington, D.C. BAILUS WALKER, JR., Howard University, Washington, D.C. GERALD N. WOGAN, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts TERRY F. YOSIE, Harrison/Ruder Finn Co., Washington, D.C. Senior Staff Officers JAMES J. REISA, Director DAVID J. POLICANSKY, Associate Director and Program Director for Applied Ecology KULBIR S. BAKSHI, Program Director for the Committee on Toxicology CAROL A. MACZKA, Program Director for Toxicology and Risk Assessment I,EE R. PAULSON, Program Director for Information Systems and Statistics RAYMOND A. WASSEL, Program Director for Environmental Sciences and . . . . engineering IV
COMMISSION ON LIFE SCIENCES THOMAS D. POLLARD (ChairJ, The Salk Institute, La lolIa, California FREDERICK R. ANDERSON, Cadwalader, Wickersham & Taft, Washington, D.C. JOHN C. BAILAR III, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois PAUL BERG, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California JOHN E. BURRIS, Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, Massachusetts SHARON L. DUNWOODY, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin URS - A W. GOODENOUGH, Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri HENRY W. HEADMEN, University of Northern Colorado, Greeley, Colorado HANS J. KENDE, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan SUSAN E. LEEMAN, Boston University School of Medicine, Boston, Massachusetts THOMAS E. LOVEJOY, Smithsonian :Institution, Washington, D.C. DONALD R. MATTISON, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania JOSEPH E. MURRAY, Wellesley Hills, Massachusetts EDWARD E. PENHOET, Chiron Corporation, Emeryville, California EMU A. PFITZER, Research Institute for Fragrance Materials, Hackensack, New Jersey MALCOLM C. PINE, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California HENRY C. PITOT III, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin JONATHAN M. SAMET, The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland CHARLES F. STEVENS, The Salk Tnstitute, La lolIa, California JOHN L. VANDEBERG, Southwest Foundation for Biomedical Research, San Antonio, Texas PAUL GERMAN, Executive Director v
OTHER RECENT REPORTS OF THE BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES AND TOXICOLOGY Carcinogens and Anticarcinogens in the Human Diet: A Comparison of Naturally Occurring and Synthetic Substances (1996) Upstream: Salmon and Society in the Pacific Northwest (1996) Science and the Endangered Species Act (1995) Wetlands: Characteristics and Boundaries (1995) Biologic Markers (Urinary Toxicology (1995), Immunotoxicology (1992), Environmental Neurotoxicology (1992), Pulmonary Toxicology (1989), Reproductive Toxicology (1989~) Review of EPA's Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (three reports, 1994-1995) Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment (1994) Ranking Hazardous Waste Sites for Remedial Action (1994) Pesticides in the Diets of Infants and Children (1993) Issues in Risk Assessment (1993) Setting Priorities for Land Conservation (1993) Protecting Visibility in National Parks and Wilderness Areas (1993) Dolphins and the Tuna Industry (1992) Hazardous Materials on the Public Lands (1992) Science and the National Parks (1992) Animals as Sentinels of Environmental Health Hazards (1991) Assessment of the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf Environmental Studies Program, Volumes I-IV (1991-1993) Human Exposure Assessment for Airborne Pollutants (1991) Monitoring Human Tissues for Toxic Substances (1991) Rethinking the Ozone Problem in Urban and Regional Air Pollution (1991) Decline of the Sea Turtles (1990) Tracking Toxic Substances at Industrial Facilities (1990) Copies of these reports may be orderedfrom the National Academy Press (800) 624-6242 (202) 334-3313 Vl
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self- perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Tnstitute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth T. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. vii
Preface THE U.S. NAVY has an extremely-Iow-frequency (ELF) communications system that transmits from Wisconsin and upper Michigan using electric and magnetic fields (EMFs) to communicate with submarines anywhere in the world. In response to recommendations in a 1977 National Research Council report, the Navy conducted a multiyear program to monitor possible effects on plants and animals in the vicinity of the transmitting antennas. Possible effects on humans were not addressed in the program. The Navy arranged for the TIlinois Tnstitute of Technology Research Insti- tute (PETRI) to manage the ecological monitoring program and provide engi- neering support, such as performing ELF-EMF measurements. The program included i! monitoring studies, which were undertaken by subcontracting researchers from Michigan State University, Michigan Technological Univer- sity, the University of M~nnesota-Duluth, the University of Wisconsin-Milwau- kee, and the University of Wisconsin-Parkside. Each research team prepared a final report on the results and conclusions of its multiyear effort. In 1995, at the Navy's request, the National Research Council convened the Committee to Evaluate the U.S. Navy's Extremely Low Frequency Communi- cations System Ecological Monitoring Program to review independently the results of the Navy's multiyear program. The committee was not charged or constituted to address the broader topic of biologic effects of EMFs. Thus, it did not separately investigate mechanisms by which EMFs might affect biologic systems. Rather, the committee placed its emphasis on reviewing and IX
PREFACE x evaluating the study designs, analyses of data, and interpretations of results in the Navy's program. Possible human effects of EMF exposure have been addressed in another National Research Council report, Possible HeaZth Elects of Exposure to Residential Electric and Magnetic Fields (NRC 1997~. As part of its analysis, the committee reviewed documents from the ecologi- cal monitoring program, including the requests for proposals, the proposals themselves, annual and final reports, reviewer comments, and engineering reports. The committee also received information in response to questions that it asked of the Navy, UTRT, and subcontracting researchers. Documents from the Ecological Monitoring Program are available to the public from the Na- tional Technical Information Service, Springfield, Va. The committee sought additional levant information from grass-roots organi- zations active in protesting the use of the ELF system and from various indi- viduals with scientific expertise on the effects of electric and magnetic radia- tion on plants and animals. No data relevant to ecological effects were ob- tained through such requests. At its first meeting in July 1995, the committee heard presentations by Dennis Murphy, Communications Systems Project Office, Space and Naval Warfare Systems Command, U.S. Navy; Anthony Valentino, Vice President, TTTRI; John Zapotosky, Program Manager, ]:TTRI; and Abdu} El-Shaarawi, statistical consultant to IlTR]. Information was also provided by Robert Yacovissi, Non Ionizing Radiation Health Branch, Bureau of Medicine and Surgery, U.S. Navy; Willie [ones, Space and Naval Warfare Systems Com- mend, U.S. Navy; Bonnie Bonner, Space and Naval Warfare Systems Com- mand, U.S. Navy; and Ralph Carison, Director of Research, ELF Electromag- netic Compatibility Assurancy, TTTRI. The committee thanks all the persons mentioned above. In addition to his presentation, John Zapatosky provided helpful and timely information to the committee over the course of its deliberations. The committee also acknowI- edges the efforts of individual researchers in the monitoring program who generously responded to requests for information. Although this report represents the work of the committee, it benefited from the excellent contributions of staff at the National Research Council: Ray Wassel, Bonnie Scarborough, Ruth Danoff, and Larry Toburen. Norman Grossblatt edited the report. Duncan T. Patten, Chair
Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMA RY INTRODUCTION The ELF Communications System, 13 The Navy's Ecological Monitoring Program, 15 The Committee's Charge and Approach, 17 Specific Theories of Biologic Effects of EMF Exposure, 19 Scope of the Report, 20 1 13 EMF MEASUREMENT, EXPOSURE CRITERIA, AND DOSIMETRY 21 Characterization of Electric and Magnetic Fields, 22 Exposure Criteria for Site Selection, 25 Exposure Data Supplied to Researchers, 26 Using Formulas for Predicting Electric and Magnetic Fields, 26 Dosimetry, 28 Differences in Effect Between Unmodulated 60-Hz and Modulated 76-Hz Signals, 30 Conclusions Regarding EMF Measurements, 30 EVALUATION OF FINAL REPORTS OF INDIVIDUAL STUDIES 32 Introduction, 32 Wetlands, 33 Slime Mold, 45 xi
CONTENTS Wisconsin Birds and Michigan Birds, 53 Small Vertebrates, 61 Litter Decomposition and Microflora, 73 Upland Flora, 85 Aquatic Ecosystems, 92 Pollinating Tnsects, 96 Soil Arthropods and Earthworms, :~04 Soil Amebas, 108 COMMON ISSUES Use of Exposure Data by Ecological Monitoring Teams, Study-Site Selection, 116 Pseudoreplication, llS Species Selection, 120 Response-Variable Selection, :122 Statistical Power, 126 Response to Reviews and Critiques, 128 Appropriateness of Interpretation, 130 Different Methods for Similar Organisms, 13 ~ Lack of Integration Among Studies and Synthesis of Information, 132 Data Archiving, 135 OVERALL CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Ecological Effects, 139 IlTRI's Engineering Support and Program Management, 142 Recommendation, 143 Suggested Next Steps, 144 xli References Appendix A Appendix B 138 148 153 157
AN EVALUATION OF THE U.S. NAVY'S EXTREMELY LOW FREQUENCY COMMUNICATIONS SYSTEM ECOLOGICAL MONITORING PROGRAM