National Academies Press: OpenBook
« Previous: 9 Trend Comparisons
Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2000. Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature Change. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9755.
×

Page 72

REFERENCES

Angell, J. K., 1988. Variations and trends in tropospheric and stratospheric global temperatures, 1958–87. J Climate 1, 1296–1313.

Angell, J. K., 1999. Comparison of surface and tropospheric trends estimated from a 63-station radiosonde network, 1958–1998. Geophys. Res. Lett. 26, 2761–2764.

Angell, J. K., and J. Korshover, 1975. Estimate of the global change in tropospheric temperature between 1958 and 1973. Mon. Wea. Rev. 103, 1007–1012.

Basist, A., N. C. Grody, T. C. Peterson, and C. N. Williams, 1998. Using the Special Sensor Microwave Imager to monitor land surface temperatures, wetness, and snow cover. J. Appl. Meteorol. 37, 888–911.

Bengtsson, L., E. Roeckner, and M. Stendel. 1999. Why is the global warming proceeding much slower than expected? J Geophys. Res. 104, 3865–3876.

Bradley, R. S., P. M. Kelly, P. D. Jones, C. M. Goodess and H. F. Diaz, 1985. A Climatic Data Bank for Northern Hemisphere Land Areas, 1851–1980. TR017. Department of Energy, Washington, D.C., 335 pp.

Christy, J. R. and R. T. McNider, 1994. Satellite greenhouse warming. Nature 367, 325.

Christy, J. R., R. W. Spencer, and E. Lobl, 1998. Analysis of the merging procedure for the MSU daily temperature time series. J Climate 5, 2016–2041.

Christy, J. R., R. W. Spencer, and W. D. Braswell, 2000. MSU tropospheric temperatures: Dataset construction and radiosonde comparisons. J. Atmos. and Oc. Tech (in press).break

Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2000. Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature Change. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9755.
×

Page 73

Conrad, V., and C. Pollak, 1950. Methods in Climatology, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Mass., 459 pp.

Cryer, J. D., 1996. Time Series Analysis. Duxbury Press, 286 pp.

Dai, A., K. E. Trenberth, T. R. Karl, 1999. Effects of clouds, soil moisture, precipitation, and water vapor on diurnal temperature range. J. Climate 12, 2451–2473.

De la Mare, W. K., 1997. Abrupt mid-twentieth-century decline in Antarctic sea-ice extent from whaling records. Nature 389, 57–60.

Diaz, H. F. and N. E. Graham, 1996. Recent changes in tropical freezing heights and the role of sea surface temperature. Nature 383, 152–155.

Easterling, D. R., B. Horton, P. D. Jones, T. C. Peterson, T. R. Karl, D. E. Parker, M. J. Salinger, V. Razuvaev, N. Plummer, P. Jamason, and C. K. Folland, 1997. Maximum and minimum temperature trends for the globe. Science 277, 364–367.

Folland, C. K., and D. E. Parker, 1995. Correction of instrumental biases in historical sea surface temperature data. Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc. 121, 319–367.

Folland, C. K., D. M. H. Sexton, D. J. Karoly, C. E. Johnson, D. P. Rowell, and D. E. Parker, 1998. Influences of anthropogenic and oceanic forcing on recent climate change. Geophys. Res. Lett. 25, 353–356.

Gaffen, D. J., 1993. Historical changes in radiosonde instruments and practices. WMO Instruments and Observing Methods Report No. 50, WMO/TD No. 541, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, 123 pp.

Gaffen, D. J., 1994. Temporal inhomogeneities in radiosonde temperature records. J. Geophys. Res. 99, 3667–3676.

Gaffen, D. J., 1996. A digitized metadata set of global upper-air station histories, NOAA Technical Memorandum ERL-ARL 211, Silver Spring, MD, 38 pp.

Gaffen, D. J., W. P. Elliott, and A. Robock, 1992. Relationships between tropospheric water vapor and surface temperature as observed by radiosondes. Geophys. Res. Lett. 19, 1839–1842.

Gaffen, D. J., M. A. Sargent, R. E. Habermann, and J. R. Lanzante, 2000. Sensitivity of tropospheric and stratospheric temperature trends to radiosonde data quality. J Climate (in press).

Gaffen, D. J., B. D. Santer, J. S. Boyle, J. R. Christy, N. E. Graham, and R. J. Ross, in review. Multi-decadal changes in the vertical temperature structure of the tropical troposphere. Science.

Gullett, D. W., L. Vincent, and P. J. F. Sajecki, 1990. Testing for Homogeneity in Temperature Time Series at Canadian Climate Stations. CCC Report No. 90-4. Atmospheric Environment Service, Downsview, Ontario. 43 pp.

Gutzler, D., 1992. Climatic variability of temperature and humidity over the tropical western Pacific. Geophys. Res. Lett. 19, 1595–1598.break

Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2000. Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature Change. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9755.
×

Page 74

Gutzler, D., 1996. Low-frequency ocean-atmosphere variability across the tropical western Pacific. J. Atmos. Sci. 53, 2773–2785.

Hansen, J., and S. Lebedeff, 1987. Global trends of measured surface air temperature. J. Geophys. Res. 92, 13345–13372.

Hansen, J., A. Lacis, R. Ruedy, M. Sato, and H. Wilson, 1993. How sensitive is the world's climate? Natl. Geogr. Res. and Exploration 9, 142–158.

Hansen, J., H. Wilson, Mki. Sato, R. Ruedy, K. Shah, and E. Hansen, 1995. Satellite and surface temperature data at odds? Climatic Change 30, 103–117.

Hansen, J., M. Sato, A. Lacis, and R. Ruedy, 1997. The missing climate forcing. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. 352, 231–240.

Hansen, J., R. Ruedy, J. Glascoe, and M. Sato, 1999. GISS analysis of surface temperature change. J. Geophys. Res 104, 30997–31022.

Heino, R., 1994. Climate in Finland during the Period of Meteorological Observations. Finnish Meteorological Institute Contributions 12, 209 pp.

Hurrell, J. W., 1996. Influence of variations in extratropical wintertime teleconnections on Northern Hemisphere temperature. Geophys. Res. Lett. 23, 665–668.

Hurrell, J. W., and K. E. Trenberth, 1996. Satellite versus surface estimates of air temperature since 1979. J. Climate 9, 2222–2232.

Hurrell, J. W., and K. E. Trenberth, 1998. Difficulties in obtaining reliable temperature trends: Reconciling the surface and satellite MSU 2R trends. J. Climate 11, 945–967.

Hurrell, J. W., and K. E. Trenberth, 1999. Global sea surface temperature analyses: Multiple problems and their implications for climate analysis, modeling and reanalysis. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc. 80, 2661–2678.

Hurrell, J. W., S. J. Brown, K. E. Trenberth, and J. R. Christy, in review. Comparison of tropospheric temperatures from radiosondes and satellites: 1979–1998. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc.

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change), 1996. Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change. J. T. Houghton, F. G. Meira Filho, B. A. Callander, N. Harris, A. Kattenberg, and K. Maskell (eds.), Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U.K., 570 pp.

Jones, P.D., 1994. Hemispheric surface air temperature variations: A reanalysis and an update to 1993. J. Climate 7, 1794–1802.

Jones, P.D., 1994. Recent warming in global temperature series. Geophys. Res. Lett. 21, 1149–1152.

Jones, P. D., S. C. B. Raper, B. Santer, B. S. B Cherry, C. Goodess, P. M. Kelly, T. M. L. Wigley, R. S. Bradley, and H. F. Diaz, 1985. A Grid Point Surface Air Temperature Data Set for the Northern Hemisphere. TRO22, Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. 251 pp.break

Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2000. Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature Change. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9755.
×

Page 75

Jones, P. D., T. J. Osborn, and K. R. Briffa, 1997. Estimating sampling errors in large-scale temperature averages. J. Climate 10, 2548–2568.

Jones, P. D., M. New, D. E. Parker, S. Martin, and I. G. Rigor, 1999. Surface air temperature and its changes over the past 150 years. Rev. Geophys. 37, 173–200.

Kalnay, E., M. Kanamitsu, R. Kistler, W. Collins, D. Deaven, L. Gandin, M. Iredell, S. Saha, G. White, J. Woollen, Y. Zhu, M. Chelliah, W. Ebisuzaki, W. Higgins, J. Janowiak, K. C. Mo, C. Ropelewski, J. Wang, A. Leetmaa, R. Reynolds, Roy Jenne, and Dennis Joseph, 1996. The NMC/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc. 77, 437–471.

Karl, T. R., and C. N. Williams, Jr., 1987. An approach to adjusting climatological time series for discontinuous inhomogeneities. J. Climate Appl. Meteor. 26, 1744–1763.

Karl, T. R., P. D. Jones, R. W. Knight, G. Kukla, N. Plummer, V. Razuvaev, K. P. Gallo, J. Lindseay, and T. C. Peterson, 1993. A new perspective on recent global warming: Asymmetric trends of daily maximum and minimum temperatures. Bull. Amer. Meteorol Soc. 14, 1007–1023.

Karl, T. R., R. W. Knight, and J. R. Christy, 1994. Global and hemispheric temperature trends: Uncertainties related to inadequate spatial sampling. J. Climate 7, 1144–1163.

Luers, J. K., and R. E. Eskridge. 1998. Use of radiosonde temperature data in climate studies. J. Climate 11, 1002–1019.

Mo, T., 1995. A study of the Microwave Sounding Unit on the NOAA-12 satellite. IEEE Trans. Geoscience and Remote Sensing 33, 1141–1152.

NRC (National Research Council), 1999. Adequacy of Climate Observing Systems. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 51 pp.

Oerlemans, J., 1994. Quantifying global warming from the retreat of glaciers. Science 264, 243–245.

Oort, A. H., and H. Liu, 1993. Upper-air temperature trends over the globe, 1958–1989. J. Climate 6, 292–307.

Owen, T. W., K. P. Gallo, C. D. Elvidge, and K. E. Baugh, 1998. Using DMSPOLS light frequency data to categorize urban environments associated with U.S. climate observing stations. Intl. J. Remote Sensing 19, 3451–3456.

Parker, D. E., and D. I. Cox. 1995. Towards a consistent global climatological rawinsonde data-base. Internat. J. Climatol. 15, 473–496.

Parker, D. E., P. D. Jones, A. Bevan, and C. K. Folland, 1994. Interdecadal changes of surface temperature since the late 19th century. J. Geophys. Res. 99, 14373–14399.

Parker, D. E., M. Gordon, D. P. N. Cullum, D. M. H. Sexton, C. K. Folland, and N. Rayner, 1997. A new global gridded radiosonde temperature data base and recent temperature trends. Geophys. Res. Lett. 24, 1499–1502.break

Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2000. Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature Change. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9755.
×

Page 76

Parkinson, C. L., D. J. Cavalieri, P. Gloersen, H. J. Zwally, and J. C. Comiso, 1999. Arctic sea ice extents, areas, and trends, 1978–1996. J. Geophys. Res. 104, 20837–20856.

Peterson, T., H. Daan, and P. Jones, 1997. Initial Selection of a GCOS Surface Network, Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc. 78, 2145–2152.

Peterson, T. C., and J. F. Griffiths, 1997. Historical African data. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc. 78, 2869–2872.

Peterson, T. C., and R. S. Vose, 1997. An overview of the Global Historical Climatology Network temperature database. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc. 78, 2837–2849.

Peterson, T. C., T. R. Karl, P. F. Jamason, R. Knight, and D. R. Easterling, 1998a. The first difference method: Maximizing station density for the calculation of long-term global temperature change. J. Geophys. Res. 103, 25967–25974.

Peterson, T. C., D. R. Easterling, T. R. Karl, P. Ya. Groisman, N. Nicholls, N. Plummer, S. Torok, I. Auer, R. Boehm, D. Gullett, L. Vincent, R. Heino, H. Tuomenvirta, O. Mestre, T. Szentimre, J. Salinger, E. FØrland, I. Hanssen-Bauer, H. Alexandersson, P. Jones, D. Parker, 1998b. Homogeneity adjustments of in situ atmospheric climate data: A review. Int. J. Climatol. 18, 1493–1517.

Peterson, T. C., R. S. Vose, R. Schmoyer, and V. Razuvaev, 1998c. GHCN quality control of monthly temperature data. Internat. J. Climatol. 18, 1169–1179.

Peterson, T. C., K. P. Gallo, J. Lawrimore, T. W. Owen, A. Huang, and D. A. McKittrick, 1999. Global rural temperature trends. Geophys. Res. Lett. 26, 329–332.

Pollack, H. N., S. Huang, P. Y. Shen, 1998. Climate change record in subsurface temperatures: a global perspective. Science 282, 279–281.

Prabhakara, C., R. lacovazzi, Jr., J.-M. Yoo, G. Dalu, 1998. Global warming deduced from MSU. Geophys. Res. Lett. 25, 1927–1930.

Quayle, R. G., T. C. Peterson, A. N. Basist, and C. S. Godfrey, 1999. An operational near real time global temperature index. Geophys. Res. Lett. 26, 333–336.

Reynolds, R. W., and D. C. Marsico, 1993. An improved real time global SST analysis. J. Climate 6, 114–119.

Reynolds, R. W., and T. M. Smith, 1994. Improved global sea surface temperature analyses using optimum interpolation. J. Climate 7, 929–948.

Reynolds, R. W., and T. M. Smith, 1994. Improved global sea surface temperature analyses using optimum interpolation. J. Climate 7, 929–948.

Ross, R. J., J. Otterman, D. Starr, W. Elliott, J. Angell, and J. Susskind, 1996. Regional trends of surface and tropospheric temperature and evening-hard

Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2000. Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature Change. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9755.
×

Page 77

morning temperature difference in northern latitudes: 1973–93. Geophys. Res. Lett. 23, 3179–3182.

Rothrock, D. A., Y. Yu, G. A. Maykut, 1999. Thinning of the Arctic sea-ice cover. Geophys. Res. Lett. 26,3469–3472.

Santer, B. D., J. J. Hnilo, T. M. L. Wigley, J. S. Boyle, C. Doutriaux, M. Fiorino, D. E. Parker, and K. E. Taylor, 1999. Uncertainties in observationally based estimates of temperature change in the free atmosphere. J. Geophys. Res. 104, 6305–6338.

Santer, B. D., T. M. L. Wigley, J. S. Boyle, D. Gaffen, J. J. Hnilo, D. Nychka, D. E. Parker, and K. E. Taylor, 2000. Statistical significance of trend differences in layer-average temperature time series. J. Geophys. Res. (in press).

Santer, B. D., T. M. L. Wigley, D. J. Gaffen, L. Bengtsson, C. Doutriaux, J. S. Boyle, M. Esch, J. J. Hnilo, P. D. Jones, G. A. Meehl, E. Roeckner, K. E. Taylor and M. F. Wehner, in review. Interpreting differential temperature trends at the surface,and in the lower troposphere. Science.

Smith, T. M., R. E. Livezey, and S. S. Shen, 1998. An improved method for analyzing sparse and irregularly distributed SST data on a regular grid: The tropical Pacific Ocean. J. Climate 11, 1717–1729.

Spencer, R. W., and J.R. Christy, 1992. Precision and radiosonde validation of satellite gridpoint temperature anomalies. Part II: A tropospheric retrieval and trends during 1979–90. J. Clim. 5, 858–866.

Tett, S. F. B., J. F. B. Mitchell, D. E. Parker, and M. R. Allen, 1996. Human influence on the atmospheric vertical temperature structure: detection and observations. Science 274, 1170–1173.

Thompson, L.G., E. Mosley-Thompson, M.E. Davis, P.-N. Lin, K.A. Henderson, J. Cole-Dai, J.F. Bolzan, and K.-B. Liu, 1995. Late Glacial Stage and Holocene tropical ice core records from Huascarán, Peru. Science 269, 46–50.

Thompson, L.G., 1999. Ice core evidence for climate change in the Tropics: Implications for our future. Quaternary Science Review (in press).

Trenberth, K. E., J. R. Christy, and J. W. Hurrell, 1992. Monitoring global monthly mean surface temperatures. J. Climate 5, 1405–1423.

Uppala, S., 1997. Observing system performance in ERA. ECMWF Re-Analysis Project Report Series, No. 3. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast, Reading, U.K., 261 pp.

Vinnikov, A., A. Robock, R. J. Stouffer, J. Walsh, C. L. Parkinson, D. J. Cavalieri, J. F. B. Mitchell, D. Garrett, V. F. Zakharov, 1999. Global Warming and Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent. Science 286, 1934–1937.

Wallis, T. W. R., 1998. A subset of Core Stations from the Comprehensive Aerological Reference Dataset (CARDS). J. Climate 11, 272–282.break

Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2000. Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature Change. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9755.
×

Page 78

Warrick, R. A., C. Le Provost, M. F. Meier, J. Oerlemans, and P. L. Woodworth, 1996. Changes in sea level, Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 359–407.

Wentz, F. J., and M. Schabel, 1998. Effects of orbital decay on satellite-derived lower tropospheric temperature trends. Nature 394, 661–664.

Wentz, F. J., and M. Schabel, in press. Precise climate monitoring using complementary satellite data sets. Nature.

WMO (World Meteorological Organization), 1994. Guide to the Applications of Marine Climatology. WMO - No. 781. 119 pp.

WMO, 1996. Measurements of upper air temperature, pressure, and humidity. Guide to Meteorological Instruments and Methods of Observation, chapter 12. WMO-NO. 8, sixth edition, Geneva, I. 12-1—I.12-32.

Woodruff, S. D., H. F. Diaz, J. D. Elms, and S. J. Worley, 1998. COADS release 2 data and metadata enhancements for improvements of marine surface flux fields. Phys. Chem. Earth 23, 517–526.break

Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2000. Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature Change. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9755.
×

Page 79

APPENDIXES

Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2000. Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature Change. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9755.
×

There was a problem loading page 80.

Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2000. Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature Change. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9755.
×
Page 72
Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2000. Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature Change. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9755.
×
Page 73
Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2000. Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature Change. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9755.
×
Page 74
Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2000. Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature Change. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9755.
×
Page 75
Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2000. Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature Change. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9755.
×
Page 76
Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2000. Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature Change. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9755.
×
Page 77
Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2000. Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature Change. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9755.
×
Page 78
Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2000. Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature Change. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9755.
×
Page 79
Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2000. Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature Change. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9755.
×
Page 80
Next: Appendix A: Biographical Information on Panel Members »
Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature Change Get This Book
×
Buy Paperback | $39.00 Buy Ebook | $31.99
MyNAP members save 10% online.
Login or Register to save!
Download Free PDF

An overall increase in global-mean atmospheric temperatures is predicted to occur in response to human-induced increases in atmospheric concentrations of heat-trapping ''greenhouse gases." The most prominent of these gases, carbon dioxide, has increased in concentration by over 30% during the past 200 years, and is expected to continue to increase well into the future. Other changes in atmospheric composition complicate the picture. In particular, increases in the number of small particles (called aerosols) in the atmosphere regionally offset and mask the greenhouse effect, and stratospheric ozone depletion contributes to cooling of the upper troposphere and stratosphere.

Many in the scientific community believe that a distinctive greenhouse-warming signature is evident in surface temperature data for the past few decades. Some, however, are puzzled by the fact that satellite temperature measurements indicate little, if any, warming of the lower to mid-troposphere (the layer extending from the surface up to about 8 km) since such satellite observations first became operational in 1979. The satellite measurements appear to be substantiated by independent trend estimates for this period based on radiosonde data. Some have interpreted this apparent discrepancy between surface and upper air observations as casting doubt on the overall reliability of the surface temperature record, whereas others have concluded that the satellite data (or the algorithms that are being used to convert them into temperatures) must be erroneous. It is also conceivable that temperatures at the earth's surface and aloft have not tracked each other perfectly because they have responded differently to natural and/or human-induced climate forcing during this particular 20-year period. Whether these differing temperature trends can be reconciled has implications for assessing:

  • how much the earth has warmed during the past few decades,
  • whether observed changes are in accord with the predicted response to the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere based on model simulations, and
  • whether the existing atmospheric observing system is adequate for the purposes of monitoring global-mean temperature.

This report reassesses the apparent differences between the temperature changes recorded by satellites and the surface thermometer network on the basis of the latest available information. It also offers an informed opinion as to how the different temperature records should be interpreted, and recommends actions designed to reduce the remaining uncertainties in these measurements.

  1. ×

    Welcome to OpenBook!

    You're looking at OpenBook, NAP.edu's online reading room since 1999. Based on feedback from you, our users, we've made some improvements that make it easier than ever to read thousands of publications on our website.

    Do you want to take a quick tour of the OpenBook's features?

    No Thanks Take a Tour »
  2. ×

    Show this book's table of contents, where you can jump to any chapter by name.

    « Back Next »
  3. ×

    ...or use these buttons to go back to the previous chapter or skip to the next one.

    « Back Next »
  4. ×

    Jump up to the previous page or down to the next one. Also, you can type in a page number and press Enter to go directly to that page in the book.

    « Back Next »
  5. ×

    Switch between the Original Pages, where you can read the report as it appeared in print, and Text Pages for the web version, where you can highlight and search the text.

    « Back Next »
  6. ×

    To search the entire text of this book, type in your search term here and press Enter.

    « Back Next »
  7. ×

    Share a link to this book page on your preferred social network or via email.

    « Back Next »
  8. ×

    View our suggested citation for this chapter.

    « Back Next »
  9. ×

    Ready to take your reading offline? Click here to buy this book in print or download it as a free PDF, if available.

    « Back Next »
Stay Connected!