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Runway Deviation Modeling The probability of aircraft collision associated with the sep- aration between the runway and taxiway or objects depends on whether the movement is a landing or a takeoff operation. For landing there are two types of risk that may be evaluated: ⢠Risk during the final approach phase when the aircraft is air- borne and the combination of large lateral and vertical devi- ations from the nominal approach path may lead to collision with a fixed or movable object in the airfield area (e.g., an aircraft taxiing in a parallel taxiway). ⢠Risk if the aircraft loses directional control after touching down and veers off the runway, colliding with fixed or mov- able objects. These two types of risk may be combined to provide the total risk for landing. The veer-off risk is estimated for every landing operation, whereas the airborne risk is computed only for missed approaches. When taking off, the pilot may reject the procedure and intentionally or unintentionally veer-off the runway. If direc- tional control is lost when in high speed, the aircraft may col- 21 7 98 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Taxilane/Taxilane Wingtip Separation (ft) 1.E-08 1.E-06 1.E-04 1.E-09 1.E-07 1.E-05 1.E-03 R is k of C ol lis io n pe r O pe ra tio n Figure 14. Taxilane/taxilane collision probability based on wingtip separation. 4 86 10 12 14 16 18 20 Taxilane/Object Wingtip Separation (ft) 1.E-08 1.E-06 1.E-04 1.E-10 1.E-09 1.E-07 1.E-05 1.E-03 R is k of C ol lis io n pe r O pe ra tio n Figure 15. Taxilane/object collision risk based on wingtip separation.
