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Next Generation Earth System Prediction: Strategies for Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts (2016)

Chapter: Appendix D: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members

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Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Next Generation Earth System Prediction: Strategies for Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21873.
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APPENDIX D

Biographical Sketches of Committee Members

Mr. Raymond J. Ban (Chair) is retired Executive Vice President of Programming, Operations and Meteorology at The Weather Channel, Inc. (TWC). Currently, he serves as Consultant for Weather Industry and Government Partnerships, responsible for growing TWC relationships with the atmospheric science community across the entire weather and climate enterprise. He is currently President of Ban and Associates, LLC, providing consultative services to the weather media industry and also a guest lecturer in the Meteorology Department at The Pennsylvania State University where he teaches 1 month each semester in the Weather Communications Program. He has served on the Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate of the National Academy of Sciences, and he was Chair of the Academy Committee on Effective Communication of Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Forecasts and most recently Chair of the NOAA Science Advisory Board. Currently, he is active on several boards and committees including Co-Chair of the Weather Coalition, a member of the Board of Directors of the National Environmental Education Foundation, and a member of the Advisory Council to The National Center for Atmospheric Research. He earned his B.S. in meteorology from The Pennsylvania State University in 1973.

Dr. Cecilia Bitz is a professor in the Atmospheric Sciences Department at the University of Washington. Her research interests include climate dynamics, polar climate predictability, climate change, paleoclimate, the role of sea ice in the climate system, and sea ice model development. The primary tools for her research are a variety of models, from simple reduced models to sophisticated climate system models. Dr. Bitz is co-lead of the new Polar Climate Predictability Initiative of the World Climate Research Program and co-Principal Investigator (PI) on the Sea Ice Prediction Network. Dr Bitz is an active participant in the Community Earth System Model project, which is sponsored by the National Science Foundation and Department of Energy. She received her Ph.D. in atmospheric sciences from the University of Washington in 1997.

Dr. Andy Brown is the Director of Science at the UK Met Office. He works with the Chief Scientist on the development and implementation of the science strategy. He has particular responsibilities for the Foundation Science area, which provides the underpinning science and modeling capabilities that support Met Office weather and climate services. Dr. Brown joined the Met Office in 1990 and has worked in a

Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Next Generation Earth System Prediction: Strategies for Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21873.
×

number of roles in science aimed at improving our understanding of the atmosphere and improving its representation in the Unified Model used for weather and climate prediction. Additionally, he has undertaken a secondment to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). He has been active in international science coordination through involvement with the World Meteorological Organization and for 5 years was co-chair of the World Climate Research Programme/Commission for Atmospheric Sciences Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE).

Dr. Eric Chassignet is a Professor and Director of the Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies at Florida State University. His current area of research interest is on the role of the ocean in climate variability from the complementary perspectives of coupled ocean-atmosphere modeling and observations. Dr. Chassignet’s emphasis is on the study of the thermohaline circulation, western boundary currents, and associated eddies and their impact on the world ocean circulation. Dr. Chassignet earned his Ph.D. in physical oceanography from the University of Miami.

Dr. John A. Dutton is President of Prescient Weather, Ltd., a firm providing information and strategies for managing weather and climate risk, and is Chief Executive of the World Climate Service, a commercial seasonal forecasting enterprise. He is Professor Emeritus of Meteorology and Dean Emeritus of the College of Earth and Mineral Sciences at The Pennsylvania State University. Dr. Dutton holds B.S., M.S. and Ph.D. degrees from the University of Wisconsin—Madison and served for 3 years as an officer in the Air Weather Service of the U.S. Air Force. He is a fellow of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) and the American Association for the Advancement of Science and is the author of a variety of articles on the dynamics of atmospheric motion as well as two text books: Dynamics of Atmospheric Motion (Dover, originally The Ceaseless Wind) and Atmospheric Turbulence (with Hans Panofsky). Dr. Dutton has been active in the AMS, the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, and in National Academy of Sciences studies related to atmospheric science, space science, and aviation. He chaired the National Research Council (NRC) Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate while it produced The Atmospheric Sciences Entering the Twenty-First Century and most recently chaired an NRC committee that produced a report For Greener Skies—Reducing the Environmental Impacts of Aviation. Dr. Dutton also served on an NRC committee that examined the potential of high-end computing for the atmospheric and other sciences. Earlier, he was the principal author of an award-winning NRC report Weather for Those Who Fly. He is a recent member of the Climate Working Group of the Science Advisory Board of the U.S. National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and co-chaired a task force that produced a recent report, A Vision and a Model for NOAA and Private Sector Collaboration in a National Climate Services

Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Next Generation Earth System Prediction: Strategies for Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21873.
×

Enterprise. In recent years, he has been a member of the community-based committee reviewing and advising on the operations of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of the U.S. National Weather Service.

Dr. Robert Hallberg is an oceanographer and Head of the Oceans and Ice-sheet Processes and Climate Group at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), and a Lecturer on the faculty of Princeton University. He has a 1995 Ph.D. in oceanography from the University of Washington and a 1990 B.A. in physics from the University of Chicago. He has spent many years developing isopycnal (density) coordinate ocean models to the point where they are now valuable tools for coupled climate studies, including extensive work on the robustness of the models’ numerical techniques, and on the development or incorporation of parameterizations of a wide range of physical processes. The isopycnal coordinate ocean model that Dr. Hallberg developed provides the physical ocean component of GFDL’s ESM2G comprehensive Earth System Model, which was used in the IPCC 5th Assessment Report, and its dynamic core is the basis for version 6 of the Modular Ocean Model (MOM6). Dr. Hallberg has used global-scale numerical ocean simulations to study topics as varied as the dynamics of Southern Ocean eddies and their role in the ocean’s response to climate, sources of steric sea level rise, and the fate of the deep plumes of methane and oil from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Dr. Hallberg has been actively involved in three ocean Climate Process Teams, studying Gravity Current Entrainment, Eddy-Mixed Layer Interactions, and Internal Wave Driven Mixing. These teams aim to improve the representation of these processes in climate-scale models, based on the best understanding that can be obtained from observations, process studies, and theory. He is currently working on coupling a dynamic ice-sheet and ice-shelf model with high-resolution versions of GFDL’s coupled climate models for improved prediction of sea-level rise and is leading the effort to modernize GFDL’s sea ice model.

Ms. Anke Kamrath is Director of Computing Operations and Services in NCAR’s Computational and Information Systems Laboratory. She came to NCAR in 2009 after 22 years at the San Diego Supercomputer Center at the University of California, San Diego. Ms. Kamrath has more than 27 years of experience in supporting, operating, deploying, and managing world-class supercomputing resources in support of scientific research. She has oversight responsibilities for the NCAR-Wyoming Supercomputing Center, all supercomputing operations, and for all computing systems, operational and services staff. Prior to her experience in supercomputing, she worked as a rocket scientist at the Aerospace Corporation in El Segundo, California, and has an M.S. in mechanical engineering from University of California (UC) Berkeley.

Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Next Generation Earth System Prediction: Strategies for Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21873.
×

Dr. Daryl T. Kleist is an Assistant Professor at the University of Maryland. His research interests include data assimilation, numerical weather prediction, atmospheric predictability, targeted observing, data thinning, and forecast sensitivity. His data assimilation research has primarily focused on improving initial conditions through algorithm development for operational numerical weather prediction for short- and medium-range timescales. Most recently, he has worked on developing and testing a hybrid ensemble-variational (EnVar) algorithm with an extension to four dimensions that does not require the use of an adjoint model. Before joining the faculty at Maryland, Dr. Kleist spent more than 10 years working at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Environmental Modeling Center as a member of the data assimilation team and within the global climate and weather modeling branch. There, he worked on various aspects of the operational data assimilation system for the global forecast system. Before leaving NCEP, he led the effort on the testing and development of the 4D-EnVar algorithm for operational implementation in the global data assimilation system. Dr. Kleist earned his Ph.D. in atmospheric and oceanic science from the University of Maryland.

Dr. Pierre F.J. Lermusiaux is an Associate Professor of Mechanical Engineering and Ocean Science and Engineering at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). He has made outstanding contributions in the fields of data assimilation, ocean modeling, and uncertainty predictions. His research thrusts include understanding and modeling complex physical and interdisciplinary oceanic dynamics and processes. With his group, he creates, develops, and utilizes new mathematical models and computational methods for ocean predictions and dynamical diagnostics, optimization and control of autonomous ocean systems, uncertainty quantification and prediction, and data assimilation and data-model comparisons. He has participated in many national and international sea exercises. He received a Fulbright Foundation Fellowship, the Wallace Prize at Harvard (1993), and the Ogilvie Young Investigator Lecture in Ocean Engineering at MIT (1998). He was awarded the MIT Doherty Chair in Ocean Utilization (2009-2011) and the 2010 Ruth and Joel Spira Award for Distinguished Teaching by the School of Engineering at MIT.

Dr. Hai Lin is a Senior Research Scientist at Environment and Climate Change Canada. He is also an adjunct professor at McGill University and Editor-in-Chief of Atmosphere-Ocean. His research interests include climate dynamics and numerical weather prediction. He was the recipient of the 2010 President’s Prize of the Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society. He is a member of the Steering Group for Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction of the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) and World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). He earned his Ph.D. in atmospheric and oceanic sciences at McGill University.

Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Next Generation Earth System Prediction: Strategies for Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21873.
×

Dr. Laura Myers is a Senior Research Social Scientist and Deputy Director, Center for Advanced Public Safety, at The University of Alabama. Her research, publication, and training areas include disaster management and planning, weather enterprise application research, criminal justice education, criminal courts, criminal justice ethics, and criminal justice administration. Dr. Myers has received more than $600,000 in Department of Homeland Security grants to develop and create a model for regional emergency planning, with emphasis on the social science aspects of partnership planning between the National Weather Service and its weather enterprise partners including emergency management, broadcast meteorology, and end users of its products. Through these grants, Dr. Myers works with the National Weather Service providing social science research for severe weather warning improvement and risk communication projects. Dr. Myers earned her Ph.D. in criminology from Florida State University.

Dr. Julie Pullen is an Associate Professor in Ocean Engineering at Stevens Institute of Technology. She uses high-resolution coupled ocean-atmosphere modeling in order to understand and forecast the dynamics of coastal urban regions throughout the world. Her research interests encompass the ocean response to atmospheric flows around island topography, as well as sea breeze interactions with city morphology during heat waves. Applications include predicting chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear dispersion in coastal cities in the event of a terrorist or accidental release. She has served on the steering team for field studies in urban air dispersion (DHS/DTRA NYC Urban Dispersion Program) and archipelago oceanography (ONR Philippines Straits Dynamics Experiment). She is a member of the international GODAE Coastal Ocean and Shelf Seas Task Team and is the physical oceanography councilor for The Oceanography Society. Dr. Pullen earned her Ph.D. in physical oceanography at Oregon State University and did postdoctoral work at the Naval Research Laboratory’s Marine Meteorology Division. She is an Adjunct Research Scientist at Columbia’s Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory.

Dr. Scott Sandgathe is a Senior Principal Meteorologist in the Applied Physics Laboratory at the University of Washington and an Adjunct Research Scientist at Oregon State University. He has extensive experience in operational oceanography and meteorology including tropical meteorology, synoptic analysis and forecasting, and numerical weather prediction. He is a retired Navy Commander and has served as the Deputy Director of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and onboard the USS Carl Vinson supporting battle group operations including meteorological and oceanographic support. In addition, he has held a number of positions in research policy and planning in the Navy. Prior to joining the Applied Physics Laboratory at the University of Washington, he was the Team Leader for the Office of Naval Research Marine Meteorology and Atmospheric Effects Program where he supported research and

Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Next Generation Earth System Prediction: Strategies for Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21873.
×

technology development. He served as the Department of Defense (DOD) working group member on the Federal Coordinating Committee on Science, Engineering and Technology Subcommittee on U.S. Global Climate Change Research Program and the Climate Modeling working group and chaired the working group to develop the joint DOD-Department of Energy-Environmental Protection Agency Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program research agenda. He is currently a technical advisor to National Earth System Prediction Capability and the National Unified Operational Prediction Capability, two multi-agency programs focused on improving operational numerical weather and climate prediction through multi-agency collaboration. His current research is on developing automated forecast verification techniques for mesoscale numerical weather prediction and developing parameter optimization techniques for numerical modeling. Dr. Sandgathe is a Fellow of the American Meteorological Society and currently holds a top-secret security clearance. Dr. Sandgathe received a B.S. in Physics from Oregon State University and a Ph.D. in meteorology from the Naval Postgraduate School.

Dr. Mark Shafer is Associate State Climatologist at the Oklahoma Climatological Survey and established and leads the Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (SCIPP), a NOAA Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) Program based at The University of Oklahoma and Louisiana State University. SCIPP focuses on place-based applications of climate and weather information to improve community preparedness to a range of natural hazards. His research interests focus upon communication between the scientific community and policymakers, particularly in managing societal response to extreme events and climate change. Primary areas of research include the influence of scientific and technical information on policy outcomes and institutional factors that can affect the flow of information. Dr. Shafer earned an M.S. in meteorology and a Ph.D. in political science from the University of Oklahoma and was a coordinating lead author on the Great Plains chapter in the 2014 National Climate Assessment.

Dr. Duane Waliser is Chief Scientist of the Earth Science and Technology Directorate at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Pasadena, California, which formulates, develops, and operates of a wide range of Earth science remote sensing instruments for NASA’s airborne and satellite program. His principal research interests lie in climate dynamics and in global atmosphere-ocean modeling, prediction, and predictability, with emphasis on the Tropics and the Earth’s water cycle. His recent research foci at JPL involves utilizing new and emerging satellite data sets to study weather and climate as well as advance our model simulation and forecast capabilities, particularly for long-range weather and short-term climate applications. He received a B.S. in physics and a B.S. in computer science from Oregon State University in 1985, an M.S. in physics

Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Next Generation Earth System Prediction: Strategies for Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21873.
×

from UC San Diego in 1987, and his Ph.D. in physical oceanography from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego in 1992. He is presently a member of the WCRP-WWRP Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Project Steering Committee and Co-Chair of the WCRP Data Advisory Council’s obs4MIPs Task Team. Dr. Waliser is also a Visiting Associate in the Geological and Planetary Sciences Division at Caltech and an Adjunct Professor in the Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Department at UCLA.

Dr. Chidong Zhang is a Professor at the University of Miami. His research interests include large-scale air-sea interaction and atmospheric dynamics in the tropics. He was the Chief Scientist of the 2011-12 Indian Ocean field campaign of DYNAMO (Dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation). He served as a member of the American Meteorological Society Council, WWRP/WCRP YOTC MJO Task Force, International CLIVAR’s Atlantic Implementation Panel, and International Science Working Group of North American Monsoon Experiment., He is currently an Editor of Journal of Geophysical Research—Atmosphere, Co-Chair of the Science Steering Committee of Years of the Maritime Continent (YMC), member of the U.S. Steering Committee of International Indian Ocean Expedition 2 (IIOP-2), the Steering Committee of Salinity Processes in the Upper Ocean Regional Study 2 (SPURS-2), and Tropical Pacific Observing System (TPOS) Planetary Boundary Layer Task Team. Dr. Zhang earned his Ph.D. in meteorology from The Pennsylvania State University in 1989.

Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Next Generation Earth System Prediction: Strategies for Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21873.
×

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Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Next Generation Earth System Prediction: Strategies for Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21873.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Next Generation Earth System Prediction: Strategies for Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21873.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Next Generation Earth System Prediction: Strategies for Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21873.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Next Generation Earth System Prediction: Strategies for Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21873.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Next Generation Earth System Prediction: Strategies for Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21873.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Next Generation Earth System Prediction: Strategies for Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21873.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Next Generation Earth System Prediction: Strategies for Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21873.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Next Generation Earth System Prediction: Strategies for Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21873.
×
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As the nation’s economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices.

Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation’s S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.

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