Assessment of Approaches to Updating the Social Cost of
Carbon: Phase 1 Report on a Near-Term Update
Committee on Assessing Approaches to Updating the Social Cost of Carbon
Board on Environmental Change and Society
Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001
This activity was supported by Contract/Grant No. DE-PI0000010, task DE-DT0009404 between the National Academy of Sciences and the Department of Energy. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-39145-0
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-39145-8
Digital Object Identifier: 10.17226/21898
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Printed in the United States of America
Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. (2016).
Assessment of Approaches to Updating the Social Cost of Carbon: Phase 1 Report on a Near-Term Update. Committee on Assessing Approaches to Updating the Social Cost of Carbon, Board on Environmental Change and Society. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21898
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COMMITTEE ON ASSESSING APPROACHES TO UPDATING THE SOCIAL COST OF CARBON
MAUREEN L. CROPPER (Cochair), Department of Economics, University of Maryland
RICHARD G. NEWELL (Cochair), Nicholas School of the Environment and Duke University Energy Initiative, Duke University
MYLES ALLEN, Climate Dynamics Group, Department of Physics, University of Oxford, England
MAXIMILIAN AUFFHAMMER, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, University of California, Berkeley
CHRIS E. FOREST, Departments of Meteorology and Geosciences, Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, The Pennsylvania State University
INEZ Y. FUNG, Department of Earth & Planetary Science and Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, University of California, Berkeley
JAMES HAMMITT, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University
HENRY D. JACOBY, Sloan School of Management (emeritus), Massachusetts Institute of Technology
ROBERT KOPP, Rutgers Energy Institute and Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Rutgers University
WILLIAM PIZER, Sanford School of Public Policy, Duke University
STEVEN ROSE, Energy and Environmental Analysis Research Group, Electric Power Research Institute
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE, Sloan School of Management (emeritus), Massachusetts Institute of Technology
JOHN P. WEYANT, Department of Management Science and Engineering, Stanford University
JENNIFER HEIMBERG, Study Director
CASEY J. WICHMAN, Technical Consultant, Resources for the Future, Washington, DC
MARY GHITELMAN, Program Assistant
BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND SOCIETY
RICHARD H. MOSS (Chair), Joint Global Change Research Institute, University of Maryland and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
JOSEPH ARVAI, School of Natural Resources and Environment, Ross School of Business, University of Michigan
ANTHONY J. BEBBINGTON, Graduate School of Geography, Clark University
WILLIAM CHANDLER, President, Transition Energy, Annapolis, Maryland
F. STUART CHAPIN, III, Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska–Fairbanks
RUTH DEFRIES, Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Environmental Biology, Columbia University
HALLIE C. EAKIN, School of Sustainability, Arizona State University
SHIRLEY B. LASKA, Department of Sociology (emerita), University of New Orleans
RICHARD G. NEWELL, Nicholas School of the Environment and Duke University Energy Initiative, Duke University
JONATHAN OVERPECK, Institute of the Environment, University of Arizona
STEPHEN POLASKY, Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota
J. TIMMONS ROBERTS, Institute at Brown for Environment and Society and Department of Sociology, Brown University
MAXINE L. SAVITZ, Technology/Partnership, Honeywell, Inc. (retired)
ROBYN S. WILSON, School of Environment and Natural Resources, The Ohio State University
MARY ELLEN O’CONNELL, Interim Board Director
Acknowledgment of Reviewers
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following individuals for their participation in their review of this report:
Kenneth J. Arrow, Department of Economics, Stanford University;
James (Jae) Edmonds, Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory;
Peter Kelemen, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University and Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory;
Bryan K. Mignone, Corporate Strategic Research, ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company;
Elisabeth Moyer, Department of Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago;
William D. Nordhaus, Department of Economics, Yale University; and David Weisbach, The University of Chicago Law School and The Computation Institute, University of Chicago and Argonne National Laboratories.
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Elisabeth M. Drake, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, appointed by the Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, and Charles F. Manski, Northwestern University, appointed by the Report Review Committee, who were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.
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|AR4||IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report|
|AR5||IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report|
|CMIP3||Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3|
|CMIP5||Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5|
|DICE||Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy Model|
|ECS||Equilibrium climate sensitivity|
|EgC||Exagram of carbon, 1 trillion tons of fossil carbon|
|EMF 22||Energy Modeling Forum’s 22nd study|
|FUND||Climate Framework for Uncertainty, Negotiation and Distribution|
|Gt||Gigaton, 1,000,000,000 tons|
|IAM||Integrated assessment model|
|IPCC||Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change|
|IPT||Initial pulse-adjustment timescale|
|IWG||Interagency Working Group on the Social Cost of Carbon|
|OMB||Office of Budget and Management|
|PAGE||Policy Analysis of the Greenhouse Effect|
|PETM||Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (in Figure 3-1)|
|ppm||Parts per million|
|RCP/ECP||Representative concentration pathway/extended concentration pathway|
|SCC||Social cost of carbon|
|TCR||Transient climate response|
|TCRE||Transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions|
|Tt C||Teraton of carbon, 1 trillion tons of fossil carbon|
|USG1||U.S. Government 1 (a designation for one of the five socioeconomic scenarios used in the IAMs)|
|USG2||U.S. Government 2 (a designation for one of the five socioeconomic scenarios used in the IAMs)|
|USG5||U.S. Government 5 (a designation for one of the five socioeconomic scenarios used in the IAMs)|
|W/m2||Watts per square meter|