Forecasting Highway Construction Staffing Requirements (2013)

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74 APPENDIX D Research Needs Statement Draft AASHTO STANDING COMMITTEE ON RESEARCH AMERICAN ASSOCIATION OF STATE HIGHWAY AND TRANSPORTATION OFFICIALS I. PROBLEM NUMBER To be assigned by NCHRP staff. II. PROBLEM TITLE State Transportation Agency Construction Staff Forecasting Methodology for Highway Construction Oversight III. RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT In recent years, State Transportation Agencies (STA) have expe- rienced evolutions in their traditional business models for the development of highway construction projects. These evolutions have been driven by several influences including fluctuations in funding levels (e.g., lean periods of state funding followed by the influx of federal stimulus funding), dynamic sources of funding (e.g., local vs. state vs. national, public-private partner- ships), alternative contracting methods (e.g., design-build, QA/ QC practices, warrantee contracts), changes in traditional job responsibilities (e.g., integration of construction and mainte- nance departments), increased use of consultant services to aug- ment in-house personnel (e.g., design outsourcing, construction inspection outsourcing), changes in project requirements (e.g., increased environmental mitigation requirements for planning and construction), and advances in design and construction tech- nology (e.g., GPS machine control, 3D design) among others. This evolution also comes at a time when STAs are experiencing staff turnover. Experienced personnel are leaving STAs through retirement and are being replaced by less experienced person- nel who are encountering more rapid increases in responsibility earlier in their careers than their predecessors. These changes have impacted all divisions of STA personnel, particularly those tasked with the construction of highway infrastructure. STA oversight of highway construction is important because it helps ensure that public money is efficiently utilized to improve the nation’s highway infrastructure. This oversight requires con- struction oversight staff of the appropriate quality and quantity to ensure projects are constructed in accordance with the plans and specifications. In adequate staffing levels can delay project completion, lead to project cost overruns, and reduce project quality. Conversely overstaffing can also negatively impact project performance as well as waste scarce human resources. In most STAs, construction personnel are concentrated in field offices throughout the state with construction support staff located in central or regional offices. STAs are tasked not only with ensuring that construction staffing levels are adequate to meet the state’s current construction needs but also forecasting future construction personnel staffing levels. Forecasting con- struction personnel needs is challenging due to many factors mostly related to the dynamic nature of highway infrastructure construction. Total state construction volume can vary from year-to-year which adds uncertainty to personnel requirements at the central and field office level. However, construction vol- ume within state districts can also fluctuate year-to-year which can require adjustments to field personnel. Construction staff forecasting is further complicated by variations in personnel experience levels in identical positions across the state, varia- tions in construction staff productivity, variations in contractor quality, variation in project type and complexity, variations in local government requirements, changes in construction tech- nology, and changes in construction staff responsibilities. NCHRP Synthesis 43-13 Forecasting Construction Staffing Requirements for Future Projects highlighted the lack of wide- spread use of formal construction staffing methodologies across STAs. This likely does not mean that STAs are not performing some type of construction staffing analysis at either an informal level or as a discrete, periodic planning exercise. However, as these agencies continue to be tasked to manage larger infrastruc- ture systems with fewer employees the need for an accurate esti- mate of construction staffing personnel will be critical. A tool that accurately forecasts construction staff over both the short and long term would improve personnel management decisions, budgeting decisions, and project selection. Obviously, such a tool could be used to estimate the number of Full Time Equivalent (FTE) posi- tions needed to execute a project portfolio and then management could adjust resources accordingly (hire new employees, bring in consultant labor, employ interns, etc.). However, the tool could be used as a decision aid in more areas than simply adjusting human resources. If a forecast shows that a program plan results in unsustainable variations in FTEs, the individual project sched- ules could be adjusted to distribute the projects more evenly and allow a more sustainable staffing plan. In addition, if a spike in human resources is identified, STA management could review the assigned duties and responsibilities of construction personnel and temporarily (or permanently) adjust duties and responsibilities to allow the existing workforce to cover a larger project volume. The proposed research should address the following questions: • What project characteristics have the greatest impact on STA staffing requirements? • What types of information are needed to accurately pre- dict construction staffing requirements? • What tools can be developed to assist STAs in estimating construction staffing needs? IV. LITERATURE SEARCH SUMMARY Based on the review of the TRB Transportation Research Infor- mation System (TRIS) online, the TRB Research in Progress database, construction management and infrastructure aca- demic journals, and the authors’ own knowledge on this topic, prior research on highway related construction staff forecast- ing is limited. NCHRP Synthesis 43-13 Forecasting Construc- tion Staffing Requirements for Future Projects identified some type of formal construction staff forecasting systems in place at seven STAs (California, Michigan, North Carolina, North Dakota, Texas Utah, and Virginia). These systems varied in their forecast horizon, forecast methodology, and their complexity. Additionally, Bell and Brandenburg [15] developed a regression model to estimating staffing requirements on South Carolina highway construction projects. Insights into the developments of commercial airline staff scheduling methods developed over

75 VII. URGENCY, PAYOFF POTENTIAL, AND IMPLEMENTATION NCHRP Synthesis 43-13 Forecasting Construction Staffing Requirements for Future Projects found that between 2000 and 2010 state managed lane-miles increased by an average of 4.10% while the number of FTEs decreased by 9.68%. When FTEs are normalized across the managed road system the responding STAs FTEs per million dollars of disbursement on capital outlay decreased by an average of 37.26%. This indicates that STAs are increasingly being asked to execute larger volumes of work construction work with fewer over- sight personnel. Accurately forecasting personnel require- ments will help ensure that the scare human resources that are availability are efficiently utilized and augmented with addi- tional resources when necessary to ensure project success. By developing and validating the process and tools through the practitioner focused NCHRP research process will help ensure the research is useful to STAs. VIII. PERSON(S) DEVELOPING THE PROBLEM Tim Taylor, University of Kentucky [others to be added as appropriate] IX. PROBLEM MONITOR TBD X. DATE AND SUBMITTED BY TBD. the past 30 years may offer useful insights into approaches to forecasting construction staffing requirements. V. RESEARCH OBJECTIVE The main objective is to develop a process and tools to accu- rately estimate STA construction staffing requirements for high- way construction projects. Proposed tasks to accomplish the main objective include: Task 1 – A literature review of existing forecasting methods among the transportation agencies and other industries. Task 2 – Identify the “best practice” forecasting process which include key steps and practices to accurately estimate construction staffing requirements among state Depart- ments of Transportation. Task 3 – Finalize the estimation process and develop tool(s) that states can use to forecast construction staffing needs. Task 4 – Obtain industry input on the final forecasting process and validate tool(s) on actual projects to validate its accuracy and robustness. Task 5 – Develop the guideline to help states successfully imple- ment the forecasting process and related tool(s). VI. ESTIMATE OF PROBLEM FUNDING AND RESEARCH PERIOD Recommended Funding: Recommended funding for the project is $400,000 Research Period: It is estimated that 24 months will be required to perform the research.

Abbreviations used without definitions in TRB publications: A4A Airlines for America AAAE American Association of Airport Executives AASHO American Association of State Highway Officials AASHTO American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials ACI–NA Airports Council International–North America ACRP Airport Cooperative Research Program ADA Americans with Disabilities Act APTA American Public Transportation Association ASCE American Society of Civil Engineers ASME American Society of Mechanical Engineers ASTM American Society for Testing and Materials ATA American Trucking Associations CTAA Community Transportation Association of America CTBSSP Commercial Truck and Bus Safety Synthesis Program DHS Department of Homeland Security DOE Department of Energy EPA Environmental Protection Agency FAA Federal Aviation Administration FHWA Federal Highway Administration FMCSA Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration FRA Federal Railroad Administration FTA Federal Transit Administration HMCRP Hazardous Materials Cooperative Research Program IEEE Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers ISTEA Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act of 1991 ITE Institute of Transportation Engineers MAP-21 Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act (2012) NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NASAO National Association of State Aviation Officials NCFRP National Cooperative Freight Research Program NCHRP National Cooperative Highway Research Program NHTSA National Highway Traffic Safety Administration NTSB National Transportation Safety Board PHMSA Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration RITA Research and Innovative Technology Administration SAE Society of Automotive Engineers SAFETEA-LU Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (2005) TCRP Transit Cooperative Research Program TEA-21 Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century (1998) TRB Transportation Research Board TSA Transportation Security Administration U.S.DOT United States Department of Transportation