Forecasting Highway Construction Staffing Requirements (2013)

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State transportation agencies (STAs) across the country continue to face many challenges to repair and enhance roadway infrastructure. One of these challenges is the selection of agency staff. Data collected in the current work shows that between 2000 and 2010 the total lane-miles in the systems managed by these agencies increased by an average of 4.1%, whereas the in-house STA personnel available to manage these systems decreased by an average of 9.78% over the same time period. By any measure STAs are doing more work with fewer agency employees than they were 10 years ago. Some of these agency employees have been replaced with consultant personnel; however, 86.1% of the respondents to this synthesis sur- vey indicated that they were “doing more with fewer people than [they] were 10 years ago.” Additional information on staffing levels and demographics from the responding states are described in chapter two. These statistics indicate that the allocation of human resources is critical in maintaining and improving the nation’s roadway infrastructure system. This is especially true for agency employees in the area of construction, because construction projects represent a significant portion of a transportation agencies’ total budget. Adequate construction staffing is critical to the cost, schedule, quality, and safety perfor- mance of highway construction projects. However, the variable nature of construction project volume, construction project type, and construction project location can make estimating staffing requirements for both the short and long term difficult. The focus of this synthesis is on identifying factors influencing construction staffing levels required for highway con- struction and what systems are currently being used to forecast highway construction project staff. The synthesis was carried out using a combination of an on-line survey distributed to the 50 STAs, a review of existing tools and methods to forecast construction in use at these agencies, and site visits with non-state transportation agency transportation organizations (such as municipal planning authorities) to collect data on construction staffing. Of the 40 STAs that responded to requests for information, only seven reported having some formal method or tool for estimating construction staffing needs for future projects. These methods and tools were diverse in their approach, ranging from simple construction staffing heuristics based on project type to complex forecasting models developed through multi-variate regression analysis of historic project data, and taking into account seasonal fluctuations in staffing requirements. Validation effort to verify the accuracy of these systems was either nonexistent or not reported. In addition to the identification of construction staff forecasting methods in current use, the project also identified poor quality plans, specifications, and cost estimates as the most frequently cited factors in increasing the construction staffing requirements of a given project. This is consistent with previous research on the impact of design errors on construction proj- ect performance. The work also found that 88% of respondents to the survey reported using consultants to perform construction staffing functions, representing a significant increase over values reported in previous studies of the use of consultant construction labor by STAs. Additional details on the factors identified that affected construction staffing requirements are described in more detail in chapter three. SUMMARY FORECASTING hIGhwAY CONSTRUCTION STAFFING REQUIREMENTS

2 The results of this synthesis offer a number of significant general findings related to STA construction staffing for highway construction projects: • The types of construction staff forecasting methods employed by STAs are diverse and widespread in their methodology. The forecasting methods range from simple staffing heuristics based on generic project types to multi-variate regression models developed from historical project data. The methods were also varied in the processes used to esti- mate staffing numbers with some using work type and others using total project cost to estimate staff requirements. • The two most cited factors by responding STAs for increasing construction staffing requirements for a project were poor quality plans, specifications, and cost estimates and an accelerated construction schedule. Other factors that increased staffing require- ments for construction administration and construction engineering personnel differed from those for construction inspection. Construction engineering and construction administration staffing requirements were increased by increased third party coordi- nation efforts. Construction inspection personnel requirements were supplemented by increased environmental mitigation requirements. • Few factors were identified that tended to decrease construction staffing requirements for highway construction projects. The lone exception was that increased experience for construction inspectors and contractors reduced the amount of construction inspection personnel required. However, it is important to note that the survey tool did not specifi- cally collect data on factors that could decrease construction staffing requirements. • Outsourcing of construction personnel is much more common now than reported in pre- vious studies. Ninety-six percent of survey respondents indicated they used consul- tant personnel to meet staffing needs in construction administration, engineering, and inspection. The most common reason cited for the use of consultant labor was a lack of quantity of in-house construction staff. • The adoption of mobile information technology within STAs’ construction organizations appears to be limited and the impact of those technologies used is also limited. Less than 30% of responding agencies reported smart phone use among their field personnel and less than 15% reported using a tablet computer. Of those using mobile information technologies, 60% reported no increase in user productivity from the mobile devices. For STAs that are interested in developing a construction staff forecasting system for their own agency, the systems examined in the current work share a number of common character- istics that could be considered when developing a new system. Details on each of the systems examined are described in chapter four. • A timeline for the construction staffing forecast. Although the timelines for the systems differ, all the systems examined in the current work base their staffing estimate on a specified analysis period. It can be noted from the systems examined in the current work that the longer the analysis timeline the more complex the system, and likely the more resources required to develop and maintain. • Some form of project schedule is needed to estimate staffing needs. None of the examined forecasting systems reported developing a formal critical path schedule as part of their methodology. However, each system used some formal or informal method to estimate project duration, with several systems including some generic type of activity. • Some type of connection between staff requirements and the work performed is needed. Although most of these systems use some type of historical data or published standard for staffing levels, the synthesis panel cautions that these data should not be used with- out taking into account the current project or project portfolio. Relying on historical data can lead to a self-fulfilling prophecy, where because a project provided a certain level of staff that staff is used regardless of whether more or fewer people are needed on the project.