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Committee on the Supply Chain for Middle-Skill Jobs: Education, Training, and Certification Pathways Board on Science, Technology, and Economic Policy Board on Higher Education and Workforce Policy and Global Affairs Board on Science Education Division on Behavioral and Social Sciences National Academy of Engineering A Report of
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 This activity was supported in part by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. DUE-1406910; Contract No. HHSH250200976014I/ HHSH25034024T with the Health Resources & Services Administration of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services; Contract No. HHSP233201400020B/HHSP23337006 with the Administration for Children and Families of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services; Contract No. DOL-OPS-15-P-00071 with the U.S. Department of Labor; and a grant from the Spencer Foundation; with additional support from the National Academy of Sciences W. K. Kellogg Foundation Fund. This study was also funded in part by a grant from JPMorgan Chase. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-44006-6 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-44006-8 Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/23472 Library of Congress Control Number: 2017939638 Additional copies of this publication are available for sale from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2017 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Building Americaâs Skilled Technical Workforce. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: https://doi.org/10.17226/23472.
The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.national-academies.org.
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COMMITTEE ON THE SUPPLY CHAIN FOR MIDDLE-SKILL JOBS: EDUCATION, TRAINING, AND CERTIFICATION PATHWAYS Jeff Bingaman (Chair), Former U.S. Senator, New Mexico Thomas R. Bailey (Co-Chair), Director, Community College Research Center, Teachers College, Columbia University Katharine G. Frase (NAE) (Co-Chair), Vice President and Chief Technology Officer, IBM Public Sector (retired) David S. C. Chu, President, Institute for Defense Analyses Rita R. Colwell (NAS), Distinguished University Professor, Institute for Advanced Computer Studies, University of Maryland College Park, and Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland Gary Hoachlander, President, ConnectEd: The California Center for College and Career Harry J. Holzer, John LaFarge Jr. S.J. Professor of Public Policy, McCourt School of Public Policy, Georgetown University Francine Lawrence, Executive Vice President, American Federation of Teachers (retired) Jennifer McNelly, President, 180 Skills, LLC Elizabeth Mertz, Associate Professor, Preventive & Restorative Dental Sciences, School of Dentistry, University of California, San Francisco Paul Osterman, Nanyang Technological University Professor of Human Resources and Management, Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Annette Parker, President, South Central College Susan K. Sclafani, Pearson Foundation (retired) Mark Tomkins, President and CEO, German American Chamber of Commerce of the Midwest PROJECT STAFF BOARD ON SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, AND ECONOMIC POLICY POLICY AND GLOBAL AFFAIRS Gail Cohen, Board Director Sujai Shivakumar, Study Director Jeff Alstott, Christine Mirzayan Science and Technology Policy Graduate Fellow (Continued) v
David Allen Ammerman, Financial Officer David Dierksheide, Program Officer Fred Lestina, Senior Program Assistant Erik Saari, Senior Program Assistant BOARD ON HIGHER EDUCATION AND WORKFORCE POLICY AND GLOBAL AFFAIRS Tom Rudin, Board Director BOARD ON SCIENCE EDUCATION DIVISION OF BEHAVIORAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCES AND EDUCATION Heidi Schweingruber, Board Director Margaret Hilton, Senior Program Officer NATIONAL ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING Ken Jarboe, Senior Program Officer vi
BOARD ON SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, AND ECONOMIC POLICY For the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, this project was overseen by the Board on Science, Technology, and Economic Policy (STEP), a standing board established by the National Academies of Sciences and Engineering and the Institute of Medicine in 1991. The mandate of the STEP Board is to advise federal, state, and local governments and inform the public about economic and related public policies to promote the creation, diffusion, and application of new scientific and technical knowledge to enhance the productivity and competitiveness of the U.S. economy and foster economic prosperity for all Americans. The STEP Board and its committees marshal research and the expertise of scholars, industrial managers, investors, and former public officials in a wide range of policy areas that affect the speed and direction of scientific and technological changes and their contributions to the growth of the U.S. and global economies. Results are communicated through reports, conferences, workshops, briefings, and electronic media subject to the procedures of the National Academies to ensure their authoritativeness, independence, and objectivity. The members of the STEP Board and staff are listed below: Richard K. Lester (Chair), Massachusetts Institute of Technology Jeff Bingaman, Former U.S. Senator, New Mexico Ellen R. Dulberger, Dulberger Enterprises, LLC Alan M. Garber (NAM), Harvard University Ralph E. Gomory (NAS/NAE), New York University Michael Greenstone, The University of Chicago Arati Prabhakar (NAE) Luis M. Proenza, University of Akron Kathryn L. Shaw, Stanford University STEP Staff Gail Cohen, Board Director Jeff Alstott, Christine Mirzayan Science and Technology Policy Graduate Fellow Paul Beaton, Senior Program Officer David Dierksheide, Program Officer Fred Lestina, Senior Program Assistant Erik Saari, Senior Program Assistant Sujai Shivakumar, Senior Program Officer and Study Director vii
Preface Skilled technical occupationsâdefined as occupations that require a high level of knowledge in a technical domain but do not require a bachelorâs degree for entryâare a key component of the U.S. economy. The United States needs a workforce with the right mix of skills to remain competitive while fostering greater innovation and boosting shared prosperity. In response to globalization and advances in science and technology, American firms are demanding workers with greater proficiency in literacy and numeracy, as well as strong interpersonal, technical, and problem-solving skills. However, employer surveys and industry and government reports have raised concerns that the nation may not have an adequate supply of skilled technical workers to achieve its competitiveness and economic growth objectives. American policy makers therefore need to consider whether they are creating the conditions that will encourage citizens to prepare for technically oriented, skilled jobs. The implementation of the recently reauthorized Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act of 2014 represents an opportunity for federal, state, and local policy makers to make the U.S. system for workforce development more demand-driven and accountable. In response to the broader need for policy information and advice, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine convened the Committee on the Supply Chain for Middle Skilled Jobs to examine the coverage, effectiveness, flexibility, and coordination of the policies and various programs that prepare Americans for skilled technical jobs. 1 To carry out this charge, the committee undertook a review of the salient academic and evaluation literature, commissioned a series of papers on key topics, convened a national symposium, and consulted numerous experts to gather evidence and incorporate diverse viewpoints to inform its deliberations. This consensus report, which provides the committeeâs conclusions and action-oriented recommendations for improving the American system of 1 Although the committeeâs name includes the phrase âmiddle-skill,â this report describes this workforce as âtechnically skilled,â a term the committee determined to be a more appropriate designation (see Chapter 1). ix
x PREFACE technical education, training, and certification, is a result of this broad-based effort. It is the committeeâs hope that this report will guide policy makers and administrators, educators, employers, labor organizations, and other stakeholders in preparing Americans for well-paid technically skilled jobs that meet local and national needs to support a robust economy. This study reflects a collaborative effort across several boards and program offices of the National Academies: the Board on Higher Education and Workforce, the Board on Science Education, and National Academy of Engineering Program Office. The study was led by the Board on Science, Technology, and Economic Policy (STEP). ACKNOWLEDGMENTS On behalf of the National Academies, the committee expresses its appreciation for the insights, experiences, and perspectives made available by the authors of the papers we commissioned and to the participants in the symposium and meetings we convened over the course of this study. We particularly recognize Margaret Polski for her assistance in preparing a draft of this report and in responding to the comments of reviewers. In addition, we thank Alicia Sasser Modestino for her valuable contributions to Chapter 2 of this report. We also recognize David Dierksheide, Fredric Lestina, and Erik Saari of the STEP staff, along with Rita Johnson, for their contributions to the reportâs preparation. ACKNOWLEDGMENT OF REVIEWERS This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Marilyn Barger, Hillsborough Community College; Crystal Bridgeman, Siemens Foundation; Ellis Cowling, North Carolina State University; Alicia Dowd, Pennsylvania State University; Miles Free, Precision Machined Products Association; Kevin Hollenbeck, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research; Melissa Kearney, University of Maryland; Livia Lam, Learning Policy Institute; Robert Lerman, American University; Daniel Marschall, AFL- CIO; Mary Alice McCarthy, New America Foundation; Darlene Miller, Permac Industries; Sanjay Rai, Montgomery College; Ursula Renolds, ETH ZÃ¼rich;
PREFACE xi James Stone, National Research Center for Career and Technical Education; Michelle Van Noy, Rutgers University; and Michael Wolf, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Cora Marrett, University of Wisconsin, and Robert Sproull, University of Massachusetts. Appointed by the National Academies, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution. Jeff Bingaman Sujai Shivakumar
Contents SUMMARY 1 1 THE SKILLED TECHNICAL WORKFORCE DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGE 5 1.1 Key Challenges for Developing a Skilled Technical Workforce, 5 1.2 The Importance of Skills, 6 1.3 Study Charge, Scope, and Approach, 9 1.4 Defining the Workforce, 13 1.5 Structure of the System for U.S. Skilled Technical Workforce Development, 16 1.6 A Network-Centered Approach, 17 1.7 Organization of This Report, 19 2 LABOR MARKET PATTERNS AND TRENDS 21 2.1 The Supply of and Demand for Skilled Technical Workers, 22 2.2 Local and Sectoral Trends in the Demand for and Supply of Technical Skills, 27 2.3 Trends in Supply and Demand in Health Care, 30 2.4 Trends in Supply and Demand in Manufacturing, 33 2.5 International Perspectives: OECD Countries and Partners, 35 2.6 Conclusions, 36 3 THE PUBLIC POLICY CONTEXT 39 3.1 The Policy Agenda for the Skilled Technical Workforce, 39 3.2 The Polycentric Policy Landscape, 41 3.3 Federal-Level Policies and Programs, 42 3.4 Federal Legislation Under Consideration, 50 3.5 State-Level Policies, 51 3.6 Current Policy Issues Related to Developing a Skilled Technical Workforce, 54 xiii
xiv CONTENTS 3.7 Conclusions, 61 4 THE COMPLEX U.S. SYSTEM OF WORKFORCE EDUCATION AND TRAINING 63 4.1 Education and Training as a Quasi-Public Good, 64 4.2 The Primary Components of Workforce Development, 65 4.3 Other Postsecondary Education and Training Programs, 72 4.4 Funding for Skilled Technical Workforce Education and Training, 82 4.5 Conclusions, 91 5 CHALLENGES IN DEVELOPING A SKILLED TECHNICAL WORKFORCE 93 5.1 The Return-on-Investment Calculus, 94 5.2 Impediments to Better Training Outcomes, 100 5.3 Challenges in Training and Transitioning the Skilled Technical Workforce, 109 5.4 Conclusions, 120 6 KEY LESSONS FOR PROGRAMS AND POLICIES 123 6.1 Linking Students to Skilled Technical Education and Training Opportunities and Improving Success Rates, 124 6.2 Linking Secondary and Postsecondary Education and Training, 135 6.3 Linking Training and Work, 140 6.4 Employer-Based Training Programs, 146 6.5 Improving Linkages through Better Data, 153 6.6 Other Policy Initiatives, 157 6.7 Conclusions, 159 7 FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 161 Findings, 162 Recommendations, 180 REFERENCES 191 APPENDIXES A AGENDAS OF COMMITTEE MEETINGS 215 B BIOGRAPHIES OF COMMITTEE MEMBERS 225 C EXAMPLES OF SECTOR-SPECIFIC STRATEGIES 235
Boxes, Tables, and Figures BOXES 1-1 An Array of Skills and Competencies, 9 1-2 Statement of Task, 10 1-3 Papers Commissioned for This Study, 11 1-4 Estimation Challenges, 15 1-5 Building a Network of SolutionsâAn Example, 18 3-1 Every Student Succeeds Act, 47 3-2 Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act (WIOA), 48 3-3 What are the STEM Capabilities?, 59 4-1 Apprenticeships: Challenges from Concept to Application, 77 4-2 Working Definitions of Alternative Credentials, 79 4-3 The Alliance for Employee Growth and Development, Inc., 88 5-1 Factors Affecting Unemployment Compensation for Ex- servicemembers (UCX) Applications, 118 5-2 Workshop on âThe Military as a Pathway to Skilled Technical Jobsâ, 121 6-1 Key Features of Wraparound Services, 128 6-2 Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Report on Online Learning, 134 6-3 Make It Real and Make It Fair, 136 6-4 IBMâs P-Tech Model, 137 6-5 A National Academy Foundation (NAF) Academy: The Academy of Finance, Northeast High School, Florida, 140 6-6 Community and Technical CollegeâEmployer Partnerships, 141 6-7 The Pacific Northwest Center of Excellence for Clean Energy, 143 6-8 Apprenticeship Carolina, 147 xv
xvi BOXES, TABLES, AND FIGURES 6-9 Key Lessons from Foreign Apprenticeship Systems, 149 6-10 Wisconsin AFL-CIO Regional Training Partnership, 150 6-11 The Bison Gear Example, 151 6-12 U.S. Chamber of Commerce Foundationâs Talent Management Principles, 152 7-1 Summary of Selected Recommended Actions for Stakeholders, 187 TABLES 3-1 Federally Funded Employment and Training Programs by Agency, Fiscal Year 2009, 43 3-2 State-Level Policy Making on Career and Technical Education in 2014, 53 4-1 Percentages of Career and Technical Education (CTE) Concentrators from Different Demographic Groups, 68 4-2 Community College Revenues by Source (2013-2014), 72 4-3 Participation in Job-Related Courses and Apprenticeship Programs in 2005, 74 4-4 Percentage of Workers Aged 25-64 Participating in Employer-Led Training in the Previous 12 Months, 90 5-1 The Nationâs Report Card: Percentage of Students Who Performed at or above Proficient in Eight Subject Areas, 97 5-2 Uniformed Armed Forces Strength Figures as of January 31, 2016, 114 FIGURES 1-1 Likelihood of positive social and economic outcomes among highly literate adults, 7 1-2 Skilled technical workers by major occupational group, 16 1-3 Overview of the components of U.S. system for skilled technical workforce development, 17 2-1 Change in demand for skills: Trends in routine and nonroutine tasks in occupations, United States, 1960-2009, 22 2-2 Difference in migration rates of workers in most- and least-licensed occupations, 29 2-3 Cities with higher information technology (IT) demand than IT supply, 30
BOXES, TABLES, AND FIGURES xvii 2-4 The evolution of skills required in production occupations, 35 2-5 Evolution of employment in occupational groups defined by level of education: Percentage change in the share of employment over all employed people relative to 1998, by occupational groups defined by workersâ average level of education, 37 3-1 Federal agencies participating in the policy-making landscape for the development of a skilled technical workforce, 42 3-2 Annual federal funding for postsecondary education and training, 45 4-1 Decision options at the secondary and postsecondary levels for skilled technical education and training, 66 4-2 Number of degree-granting institutions with first-year undergraduates, 69 4-3 Postsecondary enrollment in degree-granting institutions by age group in 2015 (projected), 71 4-4 Sources of revenue of all postsecondary institutions, 83 5-1 Revenues per full-time equivalent (FTE) student, 2007-2008 and 2012- 2013, 107 5-2 Business areas most affected by the talent shortage, 111 5-3 Age of uniformed active duty personnel in fiscal year 2014, 115 6-1 Sector strategy concept, 144 6-2 Apprenticeship starts by country in 2012, 147 C-1 Arizona sector partnerships in 2013, 237
Abbreviations and Acronyms AACC American Association of Community Colleges ACTE Association for Career and Technical Education ASAP Accelerated Study in Associate Programs ATD Association for Talent Development ATE advanced technical education BEA Bureau of Economic Analysis BLS Bureau of Labor Statistics CBO Congressional Budget Office CPI Career Pathways Initiative CPS Current Population Survey CSW Corporation for a Skilled Workforce CTE career and technical education CUNY City University of New York CWS Credentials for Work Survey DoD U.S. Department of Defense DOI U.S. Department of the Interior DOL U.S. Department of Labor ED U.S. Department of Education ESSA Every Student Succeeds Act FAFSA Free Application for Federal Student Aid FTE full-time equivalent FY fiscal year GAO Government Accountability Office xix
xx ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS HEA Higher Education Act HHS U.S. Department of Health and Human Services IT information technology JATC Joint Apprenticeship and Training Committee MIT Massachusetts Institute of Technology MOOC massive open online course NAEP National Assessment of Educational Progress NAF National Academy Foundation NASDCTEc National Association of State Directors of Career Technical Education Consortium NCES National Center for Education Statistics NGA National Governors Association NMI National Manufacturing Institute NSB National Science Board NSF National Science Foundation OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development PCAST Presidentâs Council of Advisors on Science and Technology PIACC Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies SHRM Society for Human Resource Management SOC Standard Occupational Classification (System) STEM science, technology, engineering, and mathematics TAA Trade Adjustment Assistance Act UCX Unemployment Compensation for Ex-servicemembers USCM U.S. Conference of Mayors USMAP United States Military Apprenticeship Program VET vocational education and training WIA Workforce Investment Act WIOA Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act WLMIS workforce labor market information system