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VISIONS INTO VOYAGES for Planetary Science in the Decade 2013-2022 A Midterm Review Committee on the Review of Progress Toward Implementing the Decadal Survey Vision and Voyages for Planetary Sciences Space Studies Board Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences A Consensus Study Report of
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESSâ 500 Fifth Street, NWâ Washington, DC 20001 This project was supported by Contract NNH06CE15B with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and Grant AST-1050744 with the National Science Foundation. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of any organization or agency that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13:â 978-0-309-47933-2 International Standard Book Number-10:â 0-309-47933-9 Digital Object Identifier:â https://doi.org/10.17226/25186 Cover: Design by Michael Okuda. Copies of this report are available free of charge from: Space Studies Board National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 Additional copies of this report are available for sale from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2018 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Visions into Voyages for Planetary Science in the Decade 2013-2022: A Midterm Review. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: https://doi. org/10.17226/25186.
The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on is- sues related to science and Â echnology. Members are elected by their peers for outstand- t ing contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the na- tion. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on Â medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contribu- tions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org.
Consensus Study Reports publishedÂ by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and MedicineÂ document the evidence-based consensus on the studyâs statement of task by an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and the committeeâs deliberations. Each report has been subjected to a rigorous and independent peer-review process and it represents the positionÂ ofÂ the National Academies on the statement of task. ProceedingsÂ publishedÂ by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and MedicineÂ chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or otherÂ eventÂ convened by the National Academies. The statements and opinions contained in proceedings are those of the participants and are not endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies. For information about other products and activities of the National Academies, please visitÂ www.nationalacademies.org/about/whatwedo.
COMMITTEE ON THE REVIEW OF PROGRESS TOWARD IMPLEMENTING THE DECADAL SURVEY VISION AND VOYAGES FOR PLANETARY SCIENCES LOUISE M. PROCKTER, Lunar and Planetary Institute, Co-Chair JOSEPH H. ROTHENBERG, Former NASA Associate Administrator for Space Flight and Goddard Center Director, Co-Chair DAVID A. BEARDEN, Jet Propulsion Laboratory SCOTT BOLTON, Southwest Research Institute BARBARA A. COHEN, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center ANDREW M. DAVIS, University of Chicago MELINDA DARBY DYAR, Mount Holyoke College and the Planetary Science Institute ALAN W. HARRIS, MoreData! Inc. AMANDA R. HENDRIX, Planetary Science Institute BRUCE M. JAKOSKY, University of Colorado Boulder MARGARET G. KIVELSON, NAS,1 University of California, Los Angeles SCOTT L. MURCHIE, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory JUAN PEREZ-MERCADER, Harvard University MARK P. SAUNDERS, Independent Consultant SUZANNE SMREKAR, Jet Propulsion Laboratory DAVID J. STEVENSON, NAS, California Institute of Technology Staff DWAYNE DAY, Study Director MIA BROWN, Research Associate DIONNA WISE, Program Coordinator 1â Member, National Academy of Sciences. v
SPACE STUDIES BOARD FIONA HARRISON, NAS,1 California Institute of Technology, Chair ROBERT D. BRAUN, NAE,2 University of Colorado Boulder, Vice Chair DAVID N. SPERGEL, NAS, Princeton University and Center for Computational Astrophysics at the Simons Foundation, Vice Chair JAMES G. ANDERSON, NAS, Harvard University JEFF M. BINGHAM, Consultant JAY C. BUCKEY, Geisel School of Medicine at Dartmouth College MARY LYNNE DITTMAR, Dittmar Associates JOSEPH FULLER, JR., Futron Corporation THOMAS R. GAVIN, California Institute of Technology SARAH GIBSON, National Center for Atmospheric Research WESLEY T. HUNTRESS, Carnegie Institution of Washington ANTHONY C. JANETOS, Boston University CHRYSSA KOUVELIOTOU, NAS, George Washington University DENNIS P. LETTENMAIER, NAE, University of California, Los Angeles BARBARA SHERWOOD LOLLAR, University of Toronto ROSALY M. LOPES, Jet Propulsion Laboratory DAVID J. McCOMAS, Princeton University LARRY PAXTON, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory SAUL PERLMUTTER, NAS, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory ELIOT QUATAERT, University of California, Berkeley HARLAN E. SPENCE, University of New Hampshire MARK H. THIEMENS, NAS, University of California, San Diego MEENAKSHI WADHWA, Arizona State University Staff RICHARD ROWBERG, Acting Director COLLEEN HARTMAN, Director (from April 2018) MICHAEL H. MOLONEY, Director (until April 2018) CARMELA J. CHAMBERLAIN, Administrative Coordinator TANJA PILZAK, Manager, Program Operations CELESTE A. NAYLOR, Information Management Associate MARGARET KNEMEYER, Financial Officer ANTHONY BRYANT, Financial Assistant 1â Member, National Academy of Sciences. 2â Member, National Academy of Engineering. vi
Preface In spring 2011 the National Research Council produced a report outlining the next decade in planetary sci- ences. That report, titled Vision and Voyages for Planetary Science in the Decade 2013-2022,1 and popularly referred to as the âplanetary science decadal survey,â has provided high-level prioritization and guidance for the National Aeronautics and Space Administrationâs (NASAâs) Planetary Science Division. Other considerations, such as budget realities, congressional language in authorization and appropriations bills, administration requirements, and cross-division and cross-directorate requirements (notably in retiring risk or providing needed information for the human program) are also necessary inputs to how NASA develops its planetary science program. In 2016 NASA asked the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to undertake a study assessing NASAâs progress at meeting the objectives of the decadal survey. After the study was under way, Con- gress passed the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Transition Authorization Act of 2017 which called for NASA to engage the National Academies in a review of NASAâs Mars Exploration Program. NASA and the National Academies agreed to incorporate that review into the midterm study. That study has produced this report, which serves as a midterm assessment and provides guidance on achieving the goals in the remaining years cov- ered by the decadal survey as well as preparing for the next decadal survey, currently scheduled to begin in 2020. 1â NationalResearch Council, Vision and Voyages for Planetary Science in the Decade 2013-2022, The National Academies Press, Wash- ington, D.C., 2011. vii
Acknowledgment of Reviewers This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspec- tives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Robert D. Braun, NAE,1 University of Colorado Boulder, Wendy M. Calvin, University of Nevada, Reno, Philip R. Christensen, Arizona State University, Orlando Figueroa, Independent Consultant, Martha S. Gilmore, Wesleyan University, Scott G. Hubbard, Stanford University, Stephen J. Mackwell, Universities Space Research Association, Timothy J. McCoy, National Museum of Natural History, Smithsonian Institution, Daniel J. Scheeres, NAE, University of Colorado Boulder, Amy Simon, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Norman H. Sleep, NAS,2 Stanford University, and Jessica Sunshine, University of Maryland. Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Marcia J. Rieke, NAS, University of Arizona. She was respon- sible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies. 1â Member, National Academy of Engineering. 2â Member, National Academy of Sciences. ix
Contents SUMMARY 1 1 BACKGROUND ON THE DECADAL SURVEY AND MIDTERM ASSESSMENT 11 Decadal Survey Recommendations, 12 Small Missions, 12 Medium Missions, 12 Large Missions, 13 NASAâs Planetary Research and Analysis Programs, 18 NSF-Funded Research and Infrastructure, 18 Technology Needs, 18 Humans in Space, 19 Recommended Program Descope Options, 20 The Committeeâs Charge and Tasks, 21 The Committeeâs Review Process, 21 Organization of This Report, 22 Reference, 23 2 RECENT SCIENTIFIC DISCOVERIES 24 Mercury, 24 Venus, 26 Continent-Like Plateaus, 26 Venus as an Analog for Early Earth, 27 The Moon, 28 Lunar Interior, 29 Lunar Surface, 30 Lunar Volatiles, 31 Lunar Environment, 31 Current Implementation, 32 Mars, 32 Ancient Wet and Habitable Environments, 32 xi
xii CONTENTS Ancient Climate and Loss of the Atmosphere, 33 More Recent (<3 Ga Age) Climate Change, 34 Dynamic Modern Mars, 35 Jupiter, 35 Saturn System, 36 Europa, 38 Ceres and Vesta, 39 Comets and âOumuamua, 39 Pluto and Charon, 40 Exoplanets, 42 Conclusion, 43 References, 46 3 ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT PROGRESS VIS-Ã-VIS VISION AND VOYAGES AND GUIDANCE FOR THE REST OF THE DECADE 53 Cadence and Budget Considerations, 53 R&A Programs and Technology Investment, 54 Programmatic Balance (Among Mission Classes), 58 Discovery Missions, 61 Medium (New Frontiers) Missions, 66 Large Strategic (Flagship) Missions, 68 Europa Clipper, 68 Europa Lander, 69 Ice Giants, 71 Continuing Missions, 72 Need for Large Strategic (Flagship) Program Cost/Risk Review Process, 73 The PSD Infrastructure, 74 Space and Earth-Based Telescopes, 74 The Deep Space Network, 75 Sample Curation and Laboratory Facilities, 75 Education and Outreach, 77 Partnerships, 78 References, 79 4 PLANETARY SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY 81 Technology Investment Budget, 81 Technology Program Tactical and Strategic Investment Balance, 82 Technology Development Management, TRL Maturation, and Mission Insertion, 82 Technology Development Progress Assessment, 84 Radioisotope Power, 85 Electric Propulsion and Advanced Solar Arrays, 85 Aerocapture, 86 Communications and Data Bandwidth, 87 Science Instruments and Detectors, 88 Extreme Environments, 89 Technology for Large Strategic (Flagship) Missions in the Next Decade, 90 Small Satellite Technology, 92 Space Launch System and Commercial Launch Vehicles, 94 Conclusion, 94 References, 94
CONTENTS xiii 5 MARS EXPLORATION ARCHITECTURE 95 Mars Exploration Program Background, 95 Present Status of the Mars Exploration Program, 99 Mars Exploration Program History and Organization, 99 Mars Exploration Program Missions in Flight and Development, 100 Mars Exploration Program Future Plans, 103 The Prospect of âFocused and Rapidâ Mars Sample Return, 105 Assessment of the Current Status of the Mars Program, 106 Summary of the Current Status of the Mars Exploration Program, 114 References, 114 6 PREPARING FOR THE NEXT DECADAL SURVEY 116 National Civil Space Initiatives, 117 Procedures to Deal with Unanticipated Situations, 117 Ocean Worlds, 121 SmallSats, 121 Cost and Schedule Performance, 121 Planetary Protection Issues, 124 The Role of the Virtual Institutes, 124 References, 126 APPENDIXES A Statement of Task 129 B Committee Biographical Information 130 C Acronyms 136