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Committee for the Review of the BOEM âAir Quality Modeling in the Gulf of Mexicoâ Study Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Division on Earth and Life Studies A Consensus Study Report of
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 This activity was supported by contracts between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Environmental Studies Program, Washington, D.C., under Contract Number 140M0119D0001. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-49880-7 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-49880-5 Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/25600 Additional copies of this publication are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2019 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Review of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management âAir Quality Modeling in the Gulf of Mexico Regionâ Study. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/25600.
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Consensus Study Reports published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine document the evidence-based consensus on the studyâs statement of task by an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and the committeeâs deliberations. Each report has been subjected to a rigorous and independent peer-review process and it represents the position of the National Academies on the statement of task. Proceedings published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other event convened by the National Academies. The statements and opinions contained in proceedings are those of the participants and are not endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies. For information about other products and activities of the National Academies, please visit www.nationalacademies.org/about/whatwedo.
COMMITTEE FOR THE REVIEW OF THE BOEM âAIR QUALITY MODELING IN THE GULF OF MEXICOâ STUDY ARMISTEAD RUSSELL (Chair), Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta KIRAN BHAGANAGAR, University of Texas, San Antonio BART CROES, California Air Resources Board (retired), Sacramento JOOST DE GOUW, University of Colorado, Boulder ROBERT YAMARTINO, Sigma Research Corporation (retired), Portland, ME QI YING, Texas A&M University, College Station National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff KATHARINE THOMAS, Study Director MICHAEL HUDSON, Program Assistant/Research Assistant RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate v
BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE A. R. RAVISHANKARA (Chair), Colorado State University, Fort Collins SHUYI S. CHEN (Vice Chair), University of Washington, Seattle CECILIA BITZ, University of Washington, Seattle MARK A. CANE, Columbia University, Palisades, NY HEIDI CULLEN, Climate Central, Princeton, NJ ROBERT DUNBAR, Stanford University, Stanford, CA PAMELA EMCH, Northrop Grumman Aerospace Systems, Redondo Beach, CA ARLENE FIORE, Columbia University, Palisades, NY PETER FRUMHOFF, Union of Concerned Scientists, Cambridge, MA WILLIAM B. GAIL, Global Weather Corporation, Boulder, CO MARY GLACKIN, The Weather Company, Washington, DC TERRI S. HOGUE, Colorado School of Mines, Golden EVERETTE JOSEPH, SUNY University at Albany, NY RONALD âNICKâ KEENER, JR., Duke Energy Corporation, Charlotte, NC ROBERT KOPP, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ L. RUBY LEUNG, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA JONATHAN MARTIN, University of WisconsinâMadison JONATHAN OVERPECK, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor ALLISON STEINER, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor DAVID W. TITLEY, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park DUANE WALISER, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena Ocean Studies Board Liaison DAVID HALPERN, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff AMANDA STAUDT, Director LAURIE GELLER, Senior Program Officer KATHERINE THOMAS, Senior Program Officer LAUREN EVERETT, Program Officer APRIL MELVIN, Program Officer AMANDA PURCELL, Program Officer RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator SHELLY FREELAND, Financial Associate ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate MICHAEL HUDSON, Senior Program Assistant ERIN MARKOVICH, Senior Program Assistant/Research Assistant vi
Acknowledgments The committee thanks Dan Baker, EnTech Consulting Corp., Elmer P. Danenberger, and Thomas A. Readinger for sharing their reviews of the BOEM âAir Quality Modeling in the Gulf of Mexico Regionâ Study with the Committee. The Committee also thanks the following individuals for providing additional context and perspectives through presentations to the committee: Pietro A Catizone, Woodard & Curran Chris Owens, Environmental Protection Agency Adam Pacsi, Chevron Corp. Greg Southworth, Offshore Operators Committee This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following individuals for their review of this report: WAYNE ANGEVINE, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO PIETRO A CATIZONE, Woodard & Curran, Hartford, CT JOSEPH CHANG, The RAND Corporation, Arlington, VA KATHERINE ENSOR, Rice University, Houston, TX BOB GIFFORD, Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, Austin STEVEN HANNA, Harvard University, Boston, MA ELENA MCDONALD-BULLER, University of Texas, Austin Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Jared Cohon, Carnegie Mellon University, and S.T. Rao, North Carolina State University. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies. vii
Contents Summary 1Â Chapter 1: Introduction 9Â Chapter 2: Committeeâs Review of the Study 13Â Comments on the Overall Study, 13Â Review of the Executive Summary, 18Â Review of Chapter 1: Introduction, 18Â Review of Chapter 2: WRF Model Performance Evaluation, 19Â Review of Chapter 3: Emissions Inventory for the Cumulative and Visibility Impacts Assessment, 24Â Review of Chapter 4: Cumulative and Air Quality Impacts Analysis, 27Â Review of Chapter 5: Emission Exemption Threshold Evaluation, 31Â Review of Chapter 6: Uncertainty and Recommendations, 41Â Concluding Thoughts, 42Â References 45Â Appendix A: Statement of Task 49Â Appendix B: Committee Biographies 51Â Appendix C: Acronyms 55Â Appendix D: Data for Figures S.1, 2.2, and 2.3 57Â ix