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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Review of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management "Air Quality Modeling in the Gulf of Mexico Region" Study. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25600.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Review of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management "Air Quality Modeling in the Gulf of Mexico Region" Study. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25600.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Review of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management "Air Quality Modeling in the Gulf of Mexico Region" Study. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25600.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Review of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management "Air Quality Modeling in the Gulf of Mexico Region" Study. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25600.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Review of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management "Air Quality Modeling in the Gulf of Mexico Region" Study. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25600.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Review of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management "Air Quality Modeling in the Gulf of Mexico Region" Study. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25600.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Review of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management "Air Quality Modeling in the Gulf of Mexico Region" Study. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25600.
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Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Review of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management "Air Quality Modeling in the Gulf of Mexico Region" Study. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25600.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Review of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management "Air Quality Modeling in the Gulf of Mexico Region" Study. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25600.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Review of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management "Air Quality Modeling in the Gulf of Mexico Region" Study. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25600.
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Below is the uncorrected machine-read text of this chapter, intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text of each book. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

Committee for the Review of the BOEM “Air Quality Modeling in the Gulf of Mexico” Study Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Division on Earth and Life Studies A Consensus Study Report of

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 This activity was supported by contracts between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Environmental Studies Program, Washington, D.C., under Contract Number 140M0119D0001. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-49880-7 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-49880-5 Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/25600 Additional copies of this publication are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2019 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Review of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management “Air Quality Modeling in the Gulf of Mexico Region” Study. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/25600.

The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. John L. Anderson is president. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org.

Consensus Study Reports published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine document the evidence-based consensus on the study’s statement of task by an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and the committee’s deliberations. Each report has been subjected to a rigorous and independent peer-review process and it represents the position of the National Academies on the statement of task. Proceedings published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other event convened by the National Academies. The statements and opinions contained in proceedings are those of the participants and are not endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies. For information about other products and activities of the National Academies, please visit www.nationalacademies.org/about/whatwedo.

COMMITTEE FOR THE REVIEW OF THE BOEM “AIR QUALITY MODELING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO” STUDY ARMISTEAD RUSSELL (Chair), Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta KIRAN BHAGANAGAR, University of Texas, San Antonio BART CROES, California Air Resources Board (retired), Sacramento JOOST DE GOUW, University of Colorado, Boulder ROBERT YAMARTINO, Sigma Research Corporation (retired), Portland, ME QI YING, Texas A&M University, College Station National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff KATHARINE THOMAS, Study Director MICHAEL HUDSON, Program Assistant/Research Assistant RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate v

BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE A. R. RAVISHANKARA (Chair), Colorado State University, Fort Collins SHUYI S. CHEN (Vice Chair), University of Washington, Seattle CECILIA BITZ, University of Washington, Seattle MARK A. CANE, Columbia University, Palisades, NY HEIDI CULLEN, Climate Central, Princeton, NJ ROBERT DUNBAR, Stanford University, Stanford, CA PAMELA EMCH, Northrop Grumman Aerospace Systems, Redondo Beach, CA ARLENE FIORE, Columbia University, Palisades, NY PETER FRUMHOFF, Union of Concerned Scientists, Cambridge, MA WILLIAM B. GAIL, Global Weather Corporation, Boulder, CO MARY GLACKIN, The Weather Company, Washington, DC TERRI S. HOGUE, Colorado School of Mines, Golden EVERETTE JOSEPH, SUNY University at Albany, NY RONALD “NICK” KEENER, JR., Duke Energy Corporation, Charlotte, NC ROBERT KOPP, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ L. RUBY LEUNG, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA JONATHAN MARTIN, University of Wisconsin–Madison JONATHAN OVERPECK, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor ALLISON STEINER, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor DAVID W. TITLEY, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park DUANE WALISER, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena Ocean Studies Board Liaison DAVID HALPERN, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff AMANDA STAUDT, Director LAURIE GELLER, Senior Program Officer KATHERINE THOMAS, Senior Program Officer LAUREN EVERETT, Program Officer APRIL MELVIN, Program Officer AMANDA PURCELL, Program Officer RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator SHELLY FREELAND, Financial Associate ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate MICHAEL HUDSON, Senior Program Assistant ERIN MARKOVICH, Senior Program Assistant/Research Assistant vi

Acknowledgments The committee thanks Dan Baker, EnTech Consulting Corp., Elmer P. Danenberger, and Thomas A. Readinger for sharing their reviews of the BOEM “Air Quality Modeling in the Gulf of Mexico Region” Study with the Committee. The Committee also thanks the following individuals for providing additional context and perspectives through presentations to the committee: Pietro A Catizone, Woodard & Curran Chris Owens, Environmental Protection Agency Adam Pacsi, Chevron Corp. Greg Southworth, Offshore Operators Committee This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following individuals for their review of this report: WAYNE ANGEVINE, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO PIETRO A CATIZONE, Woodard & Curran, Hartford, CT JOSEPH CHANG, The RAND Corporation, Arlington, VA KATHERINE ENSOR, Rice University, Houston, TX BOB GIFFORD, Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, Austin STEVEN HANNA, Harvard University, Boston, MA ELENA MCDONALD-BULLER, University of Texas, Austin Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Jared Cohon, Carnegie Mellon University, and S.T. Rao, North Carolina State University. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies. vii

Contents Summary ....................................................................................................................................................... 1 Chapter 1: Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 9 Chapter 2: Committee’s Review of the Study ............................................................................................ 13 Comments on the Overall Study ............................................................................................................. 13 Review of the Executive Summary ......................................................................................................... 18 Review of Chapter 1: Introduction.......................................................................................................... 18 Review of Chapter 2: WRF Model Performance Evaluation.................................................................. 19 Review of Chapter 3: Emissions Inventory for the Cumulative and Visibility Impacts Assessment ..... 24 Review of Chapter 4: Cumulative and Air Quality Impacts Analysis .................................................... 27 Review of Chapter 5: Emission Exemption Threshold Evaluation......................................................... 31 Review of Chapter 6: Uncertainty and Recommendations ..................................................................... 41 Concluding Thoughts .............................................................................................................................. 41 References ................................................................................................................................................... 43 Appendix A: Statement of Task .................................................................................................................. 47 Appendix B: Committee Biographies ......................................................................................................... 49 Appendix C: Acronyms .............................................................................................................................. 53 Appendix D: Data for Figures S.1, 2.2, and 2.3 .......................................................................................... 55 ix

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Emissions associated with oil and gas exploration, development, and production on the Gulf waters can result in increased levels of air pollutants that contribute to a range of air quality impacts in the Gulf of Mexico Region (GOMR). “Criteria air pollutants”, such as carbon monoxide, lead, nitrogen dioxide, ozone, particulate matter, and sulfur dioxide, are considered harmful to public health and the environment. The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) manages the U.S. outer continental shelf oil and gas resources and is required to help manage air quality in the GOMR.

Review of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management “Air Quality Modeling in the Gulf of Mexico Region” Study reviews and provides feedback on the BOEM’s Air Quality Modeling in the Gulf of Mexico Region Study. This independent technical review of the study explores whether the study meets its goals, accurately reflects the scientific literature, uses reasonable data and modeling analyses, approaches quantitative modeling appropriately, documents findings in a consistent, transparent, and credible way, and aligns with necessary guidelines.

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