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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Understanding and Responding to Global Health Security Risks from Microbial Threats in the Arctic: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25887.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Understanding and Responding to Global Health Security Risks from Microbial Threats in the Arctic: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25887.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Understanding and Responding to Global Health Security Risks from Microbial Threats in the Arctic: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25887.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Understanding and Responding to Global Health Security Risks from Microbial Threats in the Arctic: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25887.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Understanding and Responding to Global Health Security Risks from Microbial Threats in the Arctic: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25887.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Understanding and Responding to Global Health Security Risks from Microbial Threats in the Arctic: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25887.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Understanding and Responding to Global Health Security Risks from Microbial Threats in the Arctic: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25887.
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Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Understanding and Responding to Global Health Security Risks from Microbial Threats in the Arctic: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25887.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Understanding and Responding to Global Health Security Risks from Microbial Threats in the Arctic: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25887.
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Page R9
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Understanding and Responding to Global Health Security Risks from Microbial Threats in the Arctic: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25887.
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Below is the uncorrected machine-read text of this chapter, intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text of each book. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

PREPUBLICATION COPY Lauren Everett, Rapporteur Polar Research Board Board on Life Sciences Division on Earth and Life Studies Board on Global Health Health and Medicine Division In collaboration with the InterAcademy Partnership and the European Academies Science Advisory Council This prepublication version of Understanding and Responding to Global Health Security Risks from Microbial Threats in the Arctic: Proceedings of a Workshop has been provided to the public to facilitate timely access to the report. Although the substance of the report is final, editorial changes may be made throughout the text and citations will be checked prior to publication. The final report will be available through the National Academies Press in fall 2020.

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 This activity was supported by the National Academy of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Endowment Funds, the US Agency for International Development Emerging Pandemic Threats Program Award No. 7200AA18GR00003, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases Award No. 200-2011-38807/75D30118F00067, the Tides Center Ending Pandemics Project, the Heising-Simons Foundation, and the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-XXXXX-X International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-XXXXX-X Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/25887 Additional copies of this publication are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2020 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Understanding and Responding to Global Health Security Risks from Microbial Threats in the Arctic: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/25887. PREPUBLICATION COPY

The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. John L. Anderson is president. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org. PREPUBLICATION COPY

Consensus Study Reports published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine document the evidence-based consensus on the study’s statement of task by an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and the committee’s deliberations. Each report has been subjected to a rigorous and independent peer-review process and it represents the position of the National Academies on the statement of task. Proceedings published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other event convened by the National Academies. The statements and opinions contained in proceedings are those of the participants and are not endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies. For information about other products and activities of the National Academies, please visit www.nationalacademies.org/about/whatwedo. PREPUBLICATION COPY

PLANNING COMMITTEE ON UNDERSTANDING AND RESPONDING TO GLOBAL HEALTH SECURITY RISKS FROM MICROBIAL THREATS IN THE ARCTIC: A WORKSHOP DIANA WALL (Chair), Colorado State University VOLKER TER MEULEN (Vice Chair), InterAcademy Partnership ROBYN BARBATO, Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory BIRGITTA EVENGÅRD, Umeå University ROBIN FEARS, European Academies Science Advisory Council CHARLES HAAS, Drexel University THOMAS INGLESBY, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health REBECCA KATZ, Georgetown University SUSAN KUTZ, University of Calgary National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff LAUREN EVERETT, PRB Senior Program Officer LAURIE GELLER, PRB Program Director ROB GREENWAY, PRB Program Associate JULIE PAVLIN, BGH Senior Board Director KATIE PEREZ, BGH Research Associate AUDREY THÉVENON, BLS Program Officer PREPUBLICATION COPY v

Acknowledgments This Proceedings of a Workshop was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published proceedings as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process. We thank the following individuals for their review of this proceedings: Robyn Barbato, Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory Emily Jenkins, University of Saskatchewan Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the content of the proceedings nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this proceedings was overseen by Barbara Schaal, Washington University in St. Louis. She was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this proceedings was carried out in accordance with standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the rapporteur and the National Academies. We would like to thank Volker Ter Meulen, InterAcademy Partnership, and Robin Fears, European Academies’ Science Advisory Council, for their support and contributions to this activity. In kind support was generously provided by The Volkswagen Foundation (VolkswagenStiftung) and the Herrenhausen Conference Center. Assistance was also provided by Siobhan Addie, National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. PREPUBLICATION COPY vii

Contents Overview 1 Background and Context, 1 Opening Remarks, 3 Session 1: What Do We Know? 13 Viruses in Permafrost, 13 2016 Anthrax Outbreak, 14 Panel on Ecosystem Changes and Microbial Threats in the Environment, 16 Environmental and Climatic Determinants of Infectious Disease, 20 Panel on the Potential Risk of Human and Animal Exposure to Threats, 23 Session 2: What Do We Need to Know? 31 Wildlife Health Surveillance, 31 Human Health Surveillance, 32 Panel on Research Needs and Gaps in Scientific Understanding and Surveillance Capabilities, 34 Discussion on Biosafety and Biosecurity Risks, 37 Session 3: Research and Operational Paths Forward 41 Local Environmental Observer Network, 41 Zoonotic Diseases of Importance to Subsistence Communities, 42 Using Indigenous Knowledge to Detect Emerging Pathogens, 45 Panel on International and Multidisciplinary Research Examples, 47 Discussion on Harmonization of Surveillance Data, 51 Final Thoughts: Impacts of Microbial Threats on Stakeholder Organizations 55 References 61 Appendix A: Statement of Task 69 Appendix B: Planning Committee Biosketches 71 Appendix C: Workshop Agenda 77 Appendix D: Workshop Participants 83 PREPUBLICATION COPY ix

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The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in collaboration with the InterAcademy Partnership and the European Academies Science Advisory Committee held a workshop in November 2019 to bring together researchers and public health officials from different countries and across several relevant disciplines to explore what is known, and what critical knowledge gaps remain, regarding existing and possible future risks of harmful infectious agents emerging from thawing permafrost and melting ice in the Arctic region. The workshop examined case studies such as the specific case of Arctic region anthrax outbreaks, as a known, observed risk as well as other types of human and animal microbial health risks that have been discovered in snow, ice, or permafrost environments, or that could conceivably exist. The workshop primarily addressed two sources of emerging infectious diseases in the arctic: (1) new diseases likely to emerge in the Arctic as a result of climate change (such as vector-borne diseases) and (2) ancient and endemic diseases likely to emerge in the Arctic specifically as a result of permafrost thaw. Participants also considered key research that could advance knowledge including critical tools for improving observations, and surveillance to advance understanding of these risks, and to facilitate and implement effective early warning systems. Lessons learned from efforts to address emerging or re-emerging microbial threats elsewhere in the world were also discussed. This publication summarizes the presentation and discussion of the workshop.

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