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Suggested Citation:"2 Background." Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, and National Academy of Engineering. 1992. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1605.
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Page 5

2
Background

The Global Nature of Greenhouse Warming

Greenhouse warming is global in at least two respects. First, greenhouse gases released anywhere in the world disperse rapidly in the global atmosphere. Neither the location of release nor the activity resulting in a release makes much difference. A molecule of CO2 from a cooking fire in Yellowstone or India is subject to the same laws of chemistry and physics in the atmosphere as a molecule from the exhaust pipe of a high-performance auto in Indiana or Europe. Second, the anticipated climatic effects include changes in the global circulation of air and water. Global average temperature is often used as an indicator of the various climatic effects. Climate change, however, has many facets: seasonal cycles and annual fluctuations of temperature and precipitation, wind speed and direction, and strength and direction of ocean currents. Although the results of climate change will differ from place to place, they derive from global processes.

Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Human Activities

Greenhouse warming is complicated in another, more fundamental way. The amounts released vary, of course, but virtually every form of human activity contributes some amount of greenhouse gas to the atmosphere or removes some from the atmosphere. Subsistence agriculture contributes its bit, as does modern industry and the consumption and use of modern goods and services. Growing trees remove CO2 from the atmosphere, but burning wood for heating and cooking releases CO2 into the atmosphere. Rice paddies and cattle contribute CH4. Industrial activities include releases of all the

Suggested Citation:"2 Background." Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, and National Academy of Engineering. 1992. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1605.
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Page 6

greenhouse gases to varying extents. In most societies the burning of fossil fuels for electricity and transportation is a major contributor.

Since releases of greenhouse gases are connected to most economic activity, significant reductions in their emission may affect the economic competitiveness of individuals, firms, and nations. Avoiding additional greenhouse warming may be costly, it may create economic winners and losers, and it may alter trade balances.

The Effects of World Population and Economic Growth

The world's population today is 5.3 billion, and it is expected to continue to grow at about 1.7 percent per year at current rates of fertility. Figure 2.1 shows historical population growth and an estimate for 2000. This increasing population is one of the major factors affecting trends in greenhouse gas emissions. More people create greater demand for food, energy, clothing, and shelter. Producing such products emits greenhouse gases.

Economic growth also produces more greenhouse gas emissions. If population grows with constant per capita income, more resources are used for food, clothing, and shelter. If per capita income grows in a constant population, the demand for goods also grows, particularly for health and education services, transportation, and housing. Most nations in the world have policies to reduce population growth rates, but all nations seek to achieve rapid growth in per capita income. The reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is well served by the first objective (reducing population growth) but, depending on the means used, can be in conflict with the second (growth in per capita income).

The detailed links between population growth and greenhouse gas emissions are complex and not well understood. The developing countries that have reduced their population growth rates within the last 30 years did so only after rapidly increasing their standards of living. This often was accompanied by environmental degradation. Perhaps it will be possible to rapidly raise living standards without resulting in traditional patterns of pollution. Unfortunately, there are few examples to guide us. What is needed is a breakthrough in strategies for development, especially with respect to energy supply and demand. Developing countries experiencing rapid economic growth will need effective mitigation programs if they are to avoid substantial increases in their greenhouse gas emissions. Implementing new strategies will require funds that will probably be scarce if populations grow rapidly. Nevertheless, at any given per capita rate of greenhouse gas emissions, a smaller population means fewer emissions, as well as less stress on the environment in general.

Suggested Citation:"2 Background." Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, and National Academy of Engineering. 1992. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1605.
×

Page 7

image

FIGURE 2.1 World population.

SOURCE: C. McEvedy and R. Jones. 1978. Atlas of World Population History.
Middlesex, United Kingdom: Penguin. Figure 6.2.

Trends in Human Activities Affecting Greenhouse Gas Concentrations

Table 2.1 presents emission estimates for five greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, CFC-11, CFC-12, and N2O) that accounted for about 87 percent of the increase in the heat-trapping capacity of the atmosphere in the 1980s and about 92 percent of the increase over the previous 100 years. The table presents estimated 1985 emissions (in million tons per year) and converts non-CO2

Suggested Citation:"2 Background." Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, and National Academy of Engineering. 1992. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1605.
×

Page 8

TABLE 2.1 Estimated 1985 Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Human Activities

 

Greenhouse Gas

CO2-equivalent

 

Emissions (Mt/yr)

Emissions (Mt/yr)

CO2 Emissions

     
 

Commercial energy

18,800

18,800

(57)

 

Tropical deforestation

2,600

2,600

(8)

 

Other

400

400

(1)

 

TOTAL

21,800

21,800

(66)

CH4 Emissions

     
 

Fuel production

60

1,300

(4)

 

Enteric fermentation

70

1,500

(5)

 

Rice cultivation

110

2,300

(7)

 

Landfills

30

600

(2)

 

Tropical deforestation

20

400

(1)

 

Other

30

600

(2)

 

TOTAL

320

6,700

(20)b

CFC-11 and CFC-12 Emissions

     
 

TOTAL

0.6

3,200

(10)

N2O Emissions

     
 

Coal combustion

1

290

(>1)

 

Fertilizer use

1.5

440

(1)

 

Gain of cultivated land

0.4

120

(>1)

 

Tropical deforestation

0.5

150

(>1)

 

Fuel wood and industrial biomass

0.2

60

(>1)

 

Agricultural wastes

0.4

120

(>1)

 

TOTAL

4

1,180

(4)

 

TOTAL

 

32,880

(100)

NOTE: Mt/yr = million (106) metric tons (t) per year. All entries are rounded because the exact values are controversial.

aCO2-equivalent emissions are calculated from the Greenhouse Gas Emissions column by using the following multipliers:

CO2

1

CH4

21

CFC-11 and -12

5,400

N2O

290

Numbers in parentheses are percentages of total.

bTotal does not sum due to rounding errors.

SOURCE: Adapted from U.S. Department of Energy. 1990. The Economics of Long-Term Global Climate Change: A Preliminary Assessment—Report of an Interagency Task Force. Springfield, Va.: National Technical Information Service.

Suggested Citation:"2 Background." Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, and National Academy of Engineering. 1992. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1605.
×

Page 9

TABLE 2.2 Carbon Dioxide Emission Estimates

 

1960

1970

1980

1988

 

Total

Per Capita

Total

Per Capita

Total

Per Capita

Total

Per Capita

East Germany

263.6

15.4

160.6

15.8

306.9

18.3

327.4

19.8

United States

2858.2

16.1

4273.5

20.9

4617.4

20.2

4804.1

19.4

Canada

193.2

10.6

333.3

15.4

424.6

17.6

437.8

16.9

Czechoslovakia

129.8

9.5

199.1

13.9

242.4

15.8

233.6

15.0

Australia

88.4

8.4

142.6

11.4

202.8

13.9

241.3

14.7

USSR

1452.4

6.6

2303.4

9.5

3283.5

12.5

3982.0

13.9

Poland

201.7

7.0

303.6

9.2

459.8

12.8

459.4

12.1

West Germany

544.9

9.9

736.6

12.1

762.7

12.5

669.9

11.0

United Kingdom

589.6

11.4

643.1

11.4

588.9

10.3

559.2

9.9

Romania

53.5

2.9

119.5

5.9

199.8

9.2

220.7

9.5

South Africa

98.6

5.5

149.6

6.6

213.4

7.7

284.2

8.4

Japan

234.3

2.6

742.1

7.3

934.6

8.1

989.3

8.1

Italy

110.4

2.2

286.0

5.5

372.5

6.6

359.7

6.2

France

274.3

5.9

426.1

8.4

484.4

9.2

320.1

5.9

Korea

49.1

0.4

52.1

1.5

125.8

3.3

204.6

4.8

Spain

12.8

1.5

110.7

3.3

198.7

5.5

187.7

4.8

Mexico

63.1

1.8

106.0

1.8

260.3

3.7

306.9

3.7

People's Republic of China

789.4

1.2

775.9

1.0

1490.1

1.5

2236.3

2.1

Brazil

46.9

0.7

86.5

0.7

176.7

1.5

202.4

1.5

India

121.7

0.4

195.4

0.4

350.2

0.4

600.6

0.7

NOTE: Emission estimates are rounded and expressed in million tons of CO2; per capita estimates are rounded and expressed in tons of CO2. All tons are metric.

SOURCE: Adapted from Thomas A. Boden, Paul Kanciruk, and Michael P. Farrell. 1990. Trends '90: A Compendium of Data on Global Change. Oak Ridge, Tenn.: Oak Ridge National Laboratory.

gases into CO2-equivalent emissions so that their respective contributions can be compared. These projections necessarily involve uncertainties. (Note that throughout this report tons (t) are metric; 1 Mt equals 1 million metric tons.)

The United States is the world's largest contributor of greenhouse gas emissions. Table 2.2 shows total and per capita CO2 emissions (the dominant greenhouse gas emitted by human activity) for the United States and several other countries from 1960 to 1988, in order of their most recent per capita emissions. Two of the six countries with the largest total emissions are developing countries (People's Republic of China and India). Per capita

Suggested Citation:"2 Background." Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, and National Academy of Engineering. 1992. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1605.
×

Page 10

TABLE 2.3 Carbon Dioxide Emissions per Unit of Economic Activity (1988 to 1989)

 

Emissions (Mt CO2/yr)

GNP (billions of $/yr)

Emissions/GNP Ratio (Mt CO2/$1000 GNP)

China

2236.3

372.3a

6.01b

South Africa

284.2

79.0

3.60

Romania

220.7

79.8a

2.77b

Poland

459.4

172.4a

2.66b

India

600.6

237.9

2.52

East Germany

327.4

159.5a

2.05b

Czechoslovakia

233.6

123.2a

1.90b

Mexico

306.9

176.7

1.74

USSR

3982.0

2659.5a

1.50b

South Korea

204.6

171.3

1.19

Canada

437.8

435.9

1.00

United States

4804.1

4880.1

0.98

Australia

241.3

246.0

0.98

United Kingdom

559.2

702.4

0.80

Brazil

202.4

323.6

0.63

West Germany

669.9

1201.8

0.56

Spain

187.7

340.3

0.55

Italy

359.7

828.9

0.43

Japan

989.3

2843.7

0.35

France

320.1

949.4

0.34

aEstimates of GNP for centrally planned economies are subject to large margins of error. These estimates are as much as 100 times larger than those from other sources that correct for availability of goods or use free-market exchange rates.

bThe emissions/GNP is also likely to be underestimated for centrally planned economies.

SOURCE: Table 2.2 above for CO2 emissions. For GNP, entries are from World Bank, 1990, World Development Report, 1990, World Bank, Washington, D.C., Table 3. For centrally planned economies other than China, estimates are from U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, World Factbook 1990.

emissions in 1988 are lower than those in 1980 in several countries, including the United States, suggesting that some actions to reduce greenhouse warming are already being taken.

It is also informative to compare emissions to economic activity. Table 2.3 shows CO2 emissions per unit of economic activity for recent emissions data. The table illustrates that some developing countries and centrally planned economies are large emitters of greenhouse gases per unit of

Suggested Citation:"2 Background." Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, and National Academy of Engineering. 1992. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1605.
×

Page 11

TABLE 2.4 Estimated Deforestation in the Tropics (thousand hectares)

   

Number of Countries Studied

Total Land Area

Forest Area 1980

Forest Area 1990

Annual Deforestation 1980–1990

Africa

15

609,500

289,700

241,500

4,800

Latin America

32

1,263,500

825,900

753,000

7,300

Asia

15

891,100

334,500

287,500

4,700

 

TOTAL

62

2,754,500

1,450,100

1,282,300

15,800

NOTE: Entries cover closed tropical forests. Closed forests have trees covering a high proportion of the ground and grass does not form a continuous layer on the forest floor. The numbers are indicative and should not be taken as regional averages.

SOURCE: Committee on Forestry. 1990. Interim Report on Forest Resources Assessment 1990 Project, Tenth Session. Geneva, Switzerland: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.

economic activity and that the United States is in the middle of the field. It also shows France with low emissions per unit of economic activity, probably because of its extensive reliance on nuclear power as a source of electricity.

Table 2.4 shows recent estimates of deforestation in tropical forests for selected countries. About 80 percent of this wood is destroyed or used as fuel wood, and the remaining 20 percent is harvested for industrial or trade purposes. If the trees are burned, the CO2 they have stored is added to the air, and if they are replaced with plants that grow more slowly, less CO2 will be removed from the atmosphere.

Suggested Citation:"2 Background." Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, and National Academy of Engineering. 1992. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1605.
×
Page 5
Suggested Citation:"2 Background." Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, and National Academy of Engineering. 1992. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1605.
×
Page 6
Suggested Citation:"2 Background." Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, and National Academy of Engineering. 1992. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1605.
×
Page 7
Suggested Citation:"2 Background." Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, and National Academy of Engineering. 1992. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1605.
×
Page 8
Suggested Citation:"2 Background." Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, and National Academy of Engineering. 1992. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1605.
×
Page 9
Suggested Citation:"2 Background." Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, and National Academy of Engineering. 1992. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1605.
×
Page 10
Suggested Citation:"2 Background." Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, and National Academy of Engineering. 1992. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1605.
×
Page 11
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Global warming continues to gain importance on the international agenda and calls for action are heightening. Yet, there is still controversy over what must be done and what is needed to proceed.

Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming describes the information necessary to make decisions about global warming resulting from atmospheric releases of radiatively active trace gases. The conclusions and recommendations include some unexpected results. The distinguished authoring committee provides specific advice for U.S. policy and addresses the need for an international response to potential greenhouse warming.

It offers a realistic view of gaps in the scientific understanding of greenhouse warming and how much effort and expense might be required to produce definitive answers.

The book presents methods for assessing options to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, offset emissions, and assist humans and unmanaged systems of plants and animals to adjust to the consequences of global warming.

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