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N A T I O N A L C O O P E R A T I V E H I G H W A Y R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M NCHRP REPORT 770 Estimating Bicycling and Walking for Planning and Project Development: A Guidebook J. Richard Kuzmyak Renaissance Planning gRouP Arlington, VA Jerry Walters FehR & PeeRs Walnut Creek, CA Mark Bradley MaRk BRadley ReseaRch and consulting Santa Barbara, CA Kara M. Kockelman univeRsity oF texas Austin, TX Subscriber Categories Highways â¢ Pedestrians and Bicyclists â¢ Planning and Forecasting TRANSPORTAT ION RESEARCH BOARD WASHINGTON, D.C. 2014 www.TRB.org Research sponsored by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration
NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM Systematic, well-designed research provides the most effective approach to the solution of many problems facing highway administrators and engineers. Often, highway problems are of local interest and can best be studied by highway departments individually or in cooperation with their state universities and others. However, the accelerating growth of highway transportation develops increasingly complex problems of wide interest to highway authorities. These problems are best studied through a coordinated program of cooperative research. In recognition of these needs, the highway administrators of the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials initiated in 1962 an objective national highway research program employing modern scientific techniques. This program is supported on a continuing basis by funds from participating member states of the Association and it receives the full cooperation and support of the Federal Highway Administration, United States Department of Transportation. The Transportation Research Board of the National Academies was requested by the Association to administer the research program because of the Boardâs recognized objectivity and understanding of modern research practices. The Board is uniquely suited for this purpose as it maintains an extensive committee structure from which authorities on any highway transportation subject may be drawn; it possesses avenues of communications and cooperation with federal, state and local governmental agencies, universities, and industry; its relationship to the National Research Council is an insurance of objectivity; it maintains a full-time research correlation staff of specialists in highway transportation matters to bring the findings of research directly to those who are in a position to use them. The program is developed on the basis of research needs identified by chief administrators of the highway and transportation departments and by committees of AASHTO. Each year, specific areas of research needs to be included in the program are proposed to the National Research Council and the Board by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. Research projects to fulfill these needs are defined by the Board, and qualified research agencies are selected from those that have submitted proposals. Administration and surveillance of research contracts are the responsibilities of the National Research Council and the Transportation Research Board. The needs for highway research are many, and the National Cooperative Highway Research Program can make significant contributions to the solution of highway transportation problems of mutual concern to many responsible groups. The program, however, is intended to complement rather than to substitute for or duplicate other highway research programs. Published reports of the NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM are available from: Transportation Research Board Business Office 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 and can be ordered through the Internet at: http://www.national-academies.org/trb/bookstore Printed in the United States of America NCHRP REPORT 770 Project 08-78 ISSN 0077-5614 ISBN 978-0-309-28403-5 Library of Congress Control Number 2014939893 Â© 2014 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. COPYRIGHT INFORMATION Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously published or copyrighted material used herein. Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) grants permission to reproduce material in this publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Permission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB, AASHTO, FAA, FHWA, FMCSA, FTA, or Transit Development Corporation endorsement of a particular product, method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing the material in this document for educational and not-for-profit uses will give appropriate acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission from CRP. NOTICE The project that is the subject of this report was a part of the National Cooperative Highway Research Program, conducted by the Transportation Research Board with the approval of the Governing Board of the National Research Council. The members of the technical panel selected to monitor this project and to review this report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance. The report was reviewed by the technical panel and accepted for publication according to procedures established and overseen by the Transportation Research Board and approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council. The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this report are those of the researchers who performed the research and are not necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board, the National Research Council, or the program sponsors. The Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, the National Research Council, and the sponsors of the National Cooperative Highway Research Program do not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturersâ names appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the object of the report.
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. On the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, on its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academyâs purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. The Transportation Research Board is one of six major divisions of the National Research Council. The mission of the Transporta- tion Research Board is to provide leadership in transportation innovation and progress through research and information exchange, conducted within a setting that is objective, interdisciplinary, and multimodal. The Boardâs varied activities annually engage about 7,000 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. The program is supported by state transportation departments, federal agencies including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transportation, and other organizations and individu- als interested in the development of transportation. www.TRB.org www.national-academies.org
C O O P E R A T I V E R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M S CRP STAFF FOR NCHRP REPORT 770 Christopher W. Jenks, Director, Cooperative Research Programs Christopher Hedges, Manager, National Cooperative Highway Research Program Nanda S. Srinivasan, Senior Program Officer Charlotte Thomas, Senior Program Assistant Eileen P. Delaney, Director of Publications Hilary Freer, Senior Editor NCHRP PROJECT 08-78 PANEL Field of Transportation PlanningâArea of Forecasting Jennifer Lynn Dill, Portland State University, Portland, OR (Chair) Chris Schmidt, California DOT, San Diego, CA Melissa A. Anderson, US Access Board, Washington, DC Thomas Huber, Toole Design Group, Madison, WI Sean Masters, Florida DOT, Bartow, FL Andy Pickard, Federal Highway Administration, Lansing, MI Karl H. Quackenbush, Boston Region Metropolitan Planning Organization, Boston, MA Paula J. Reeves, Washington State DOT, Olympia, WA Gabriel Rousseau, FHWA Liaison Sarah Sun, FHWA Liaison Kimberly Fisher, TRB Liaison
F O R E W O R D By Nanda S. Srinivasan Staff Officer Transportation Research Board This guidebook contains methods and tools for practitioners to estimate bicycling and walking demand as part of regional-, corridor-, or project-level analyses. The methods are sensitive to key planning factors, including bicycle and pedestrian infrastructure, land use and urban design, topography, and sociodemographic characteristics. The planning tools presented in this guidebook include some entirely new methods as well as some existing methods found to have useful properties for particular applications. The tools take advan- tage of existing data and the capabilities present in GIS methods to create realistic measures of accessibility which are a critical determinant of bicycle, pedestrian, and even transit mode choice. The guidebook should be of considerable value to transportation practitioners either directly interested in forecasting bicycling or walking activity levels or accounting for the impact of bicycle or pedestrian activity in support of broader transportation and land use planning issues. The need for robust methods that can accurately measure bicycle and walking activity has long been recognized, particularly in relation to land use. Many planning agencies are trying to assess the potential for smart growth and other land use options to increase bicycling and walking and reduce motor vehicle use. Existing national data sources document a particular segment of bicycling or walking trips (e.g., U.S. Census Journey-to-Work data) or document all bicycling or walking trips at large-scale geography such as state or aggregations of metro- politan areas (e.g., the National Household Travel Survey or other household travel surveys). However, there was a lack of consistent methods to understand bicycling and walking activ- ity, and relationships to demographic, social, and physical factors were not well understood. Consistent methods and credible data were needed to enhance local and regional planning to evaluate bicycle and pedestrian needs. NCHRP Project 08-78, âEstimating Bicycling and Walking for Planning and Project Development,â was conceived to fill this gap. NCHRP Proj- ect 08-78 addresses robust methods to accurately estimate bicycle and walking activity, both to account for the role of non-motorized travel in coordinated transportation/land use plan- ning and to support design and prioritization of pedestrian and bicycle facilities and systems. The research was performed by Richard Kuzmyak of Renaissance Planning Group in association with Fehr & Peers; Keith Lawton Consulting, Inc.; Mark Bradley Research and Consulting; John Bowman Research & Consulting; Richard H. Pratt, Consultant, Inc.; University of Texas at Austin; and NuStats. Information was gathered via literature review and interviews with practitioners. The products of the research include a guidebook for practitioners on a range of methods for estimating bicycling and walking activity and CRP-CD-148 containing a GIS Walk Accessibility Model, spreadsheets, and the contrac- torâs final report, which documents the research and tools that operationalize the methods described in the guidebook.
C O N T E N T S 1 Summary 7 Chapter 1 Introduction 7 1.1 Purpose 7 1.2 Overview of Analytic Tools and Gaps 10 1.3 Overview of the Research behind the Guidebook 11 1.4 Content of the Guidebook 12 1.5 How to Use the Guidebook 13 Chapter 2 Fast Facts about Walking and Bicycling 13 2.1 Walking and Bicycling Activity Levels 13 2.2 The Role of Distance in Non-Motorized Travel 16 2.3 Walking and Biking by Trip Purpose 17 2.4 Who Walks and Bikes? 21 Chapter 3 Factors Affecting Walking and Biking 21 3.1 Overview 21 3.2 Insights from International Experience 23 3.3 Land Use and the Built Environment 25 3.4 Facilities 26 3.5 Factors Related to the Natural Environment 27 3.6 Sociodemographic Factors 28 3.7 Attitudes and Perceptions 30 Chapter 4 Best-Practice Methods for Estimating Bicycle and Pedestrian Demand 30 4.1 Identification of Planning Needs and Assessment of Available Tools 33 4.2 Addressing the Gaps 34 4.3 Introducing the Guidebook Planning Tools 36 4.4 Overview of Recommended Guidebook Tools 59 Chapter 5 Application of Methods 59 5.1 Introduction 60 5.2 Comparison of Tool Properties and Capabilities 65 5.3 Individual Tool Profiles 77 5.4 Guidelines and Suggestions for Model Selection and Use 82 5.5 Guidelines for Use 116 References 119 Appendix A Seattle Tour-Generation and Mode-Choice Models 126 Appendix B Enhanced Four-Step Process 136 Appendix C Portland Pedestrian Model Enhancement
139 Appendix D Baltimore PedContext Model 144 Appendix E Baltimore MoPeD Model 147 Appendix F Portland Bicycle Route Choice Model 150 Appendix G Direct Demand Models