CHARACTERIZING RISK IN CLIMATE
CHANGE ASSESSMENTS
Proceedings of a Workshop
Alexandra Beatty, Rapporteur
Board on Environmental Change and Society
Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education
Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
Division on Earth and Life Studies
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, DC
www.nap.edu
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This activity was supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under award number NNH14CK78B (formerly NNH13CI84B). Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-44551-1
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-44551-5
Digital Object Identifier: 10.17226/23569
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Copyright 2016 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. (2016). Characterizing Risk in Climate Change Assessments: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23569.
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PLANNING COMMITTEE FOR THE WORKSHOP ON METHODS FOR CHARACTERIZING RISK IN CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENTS
JOSEPH ARVAI (Chair), School of Natural Resources and Environment and Ross School of Business, University of Michigan
KRISTIE L. EBI, Department of Global Health, University of Washington
BARUCH FISCHHOFF, Department of Social and Decision Sciences and Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University
PETER GLEICK, Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment, and Security, Oakland, CA
ANDREW HOFFMAN, Ross School of Business, University of Michigan
RICHARD H. MOSS, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD
CLAUDIA TEBALDI, Climate and Global Dynamics, Climate Change Research Section, National Center for Atmospheric Research
CHRISTOPHER WEAVER, Office of Research and Development/National Center for Environmental Assessment, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
ROBYN S. WILSON, School of Environment and Natural Resources, Ohio State University
PAUL C. STERN, Study Director
ALEXANDRA BEATTY, Rapporteur
MARY GHITELMAN, Program Assistant
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BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND SOCIETY 2016
RICHARD H. MOSS (Chair), Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD
JOSEPH ARVAI, School of Natural Resources and Environment and Ross School of Business, University of Michigan
ANTHONY J. BEBBINGTON, Graduate School of Geography, Clark University
WILLIAM U. CHANDLER, Transition Energy, Annapolis, MD
F. STUART CHAPIN, III, Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska–Fairbanks
RUTH DEFRIES, Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Environmental Biology, Columbia University
HALLIE C. EAKIN, School of Sustainability, Arizona State University
RICHARD NEWELL, Nicholas School of Environment and Duke University Energy Initiative, Duke University
JONATHAN OVERPECK, Institute of the Environment, University of Arizona
STEPHEN POLASKY, Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota
J. TIMMONS ROBERTS, Department of Sociology and Environmental Studies, Brown University
MAXINE L. SAVITZ, Technology/Partnership Honeywell Inc. (retired)
ROBYN S. WILSON, School of Environment and Natural Resources, The Ohio State University
MARY ELLEN O’CONNELL, Interim Board Director
PAUL C. STERN, Scholar
JENNIFER HEIMBERG, Senior Program Officer
HEATHER BREINER, Associate Program Officer
TINA M. LATIMER, Program Coordinator
MARY GHITELMAN, Program Assistant
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Acknowledgments
This Proceedings of a Workshop has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the Report Review Committee of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published proceedings as sound as possible and to ensure that the proceedings meets institutional standards for clarity, objectivity, and responsiveness to the charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process.
We thank the following individuals for their review of this proceedings: Paul Fleming, Climate Resiliency Group, Seattle Public Utilities, Seattle, Washington; Robert J. Lempert, Frederick S. Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy and the Future Human Condition, RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, California; and Chris Weaver, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina.
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they did not see the final draft of the proceedings before its release. The review of this proceedings was overseen by Cynthia M. Beall, Department of Anthropology, Case Western Reserve University. Appointed by the Academies, she was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this proceedings was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this Proceedings of a Workshop rests entirely with the rapporteur and the institution.
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Contents
2 CHARACTERIZING AND COMMUNICATING RISK
Consequences of Risk: A Policy Perspective
How Likely Are Significant Consequences?
Addressing Uncertainty in Climate Change Assessments
Framing Risks to Improve Communication
A Framework for Decision Making under Uncertainty
3 CASES: METHODS AND APPROACHES FOR RISK ASSESSMENT AND COMMUNICATION
Energy-Land-Water Interactions
4 STRATEGIES FOR THE FOURTH NATIONAL CLIMATE ASSESSMENT
An EPA Approach to Assessment of Risks and Benefits