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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Integrating Social and Behavioral Sciences Within the Weather Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24865.
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Integrating Social and
Behavioral Sciences Within
the Weather Enterprise

Committee on Advancing Social and Behavioral Science Research
and Application Within the Weather Enterprise

Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

Division on Earth and Life Studies

Board on Environmental Change and Society

Board on Human-Systems Integration

Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

A Consensus Study Report of

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, DC
www.nap.edu

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Integrating Social and Behavioral Sciences Within the Weather Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24865.
×

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS • 500 Fifth Street, NW • Washington, DC 20001

This study was supported by the Federal Highway Administration under contract number DTFH6112-D-00033 and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under contract number WC133R-11-CQ-0048. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.

International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-46422-2
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-46422-6
Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/24865

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Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Integrating Social and Behavioral Sciences Within the Weather Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: https://doi.org/10.17226/24865.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Integrating Social and Behavioral Sciences Within the Weather Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24865.
×

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The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president.

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Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Integrating Social and Behavioral Sciences Within the Weather Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24865.
×

Image

Consensus Study Reports published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine document the evidence-based consensus on the study’s statement of task by an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and the committee’s deliberations. Each report has been subjected to a rigorous and independent peer-review process and it represents the position of the National Academies on the statement of task.

Proceedings published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other event convened by the National Academies. The statements and opinions contained in proceedings are those of the participants and are not endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies.

For information about other products and activities of the National Academies, please visit www.nationalacademies.org/about/whatwedo.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Integrating Social and Behavioral Sciences Within the Weather Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24865.
×

COMMITTEE ON ADVANCING SOCIAL AND BEHAVIORAL SCIENCE RESEARCH AND APPLICATION WITHIN THE WEATHER ENTERPRISE

ANN BOSTROM (Co-Chair), University of Washington, Seattle

WILLIAM H. HOOKE (Co-Chair), American Meteorological Society, Washington, DC

RAYMOND J. BAN, Ban and Associates, Marietta, GA

ELLEN J. BASS, Drexel University, Philadelphia, PA

DAVID V. BUDESCU, Fordham University, Bronx, NY

JULIE L. DEMUTH, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO

MICHAEL D. EILTS, Weather Decision Technologies, Inc., Norman, OK

CHARLES F. MANSKI, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL

RICHARD J. NELSON, American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, Minden, NV

YVETTE RICHARDSON, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park

JACQUELINE SNELLING, Federal Emergency Management Agency, Washington, DC

JOHN TOOHEY-MORALES, WTVJ NBC-6, Miami, FL

JOSEPH E. TRAINOR, University of Delaware, Newark

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff

LAURIE GELLER, Senior Program Officer

ALISON MACALADY, Program Officer

HEATHER KREIDLER, Associate Program Officer

AMANDA PURCELL, Associate Program Officer

ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate

ERIN MARKOVICH, Senior Program Assistant/Research Assistant

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Integrating Social and Behavioral Sciences Within the Weather Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24865.
×

BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE

A.R. RAVISHANKARA (Chair), Colorado State University, Fort Collins

SHUYI S. CHEN (Vice Chair), University of Washington, Seattle

CECILIA BITZ, University of Washington, Seattle

MARK A. CANE, Columbia University, Palisades, NY

HEIDI CULLEN, Climate Central, Princeton, NJ

ROBERT DUNBAR, Stanford University, CA

PAMELA EMCH, Northrop Grumman Aerospace Systems, Redondo Beach, CA

ARLENE FIORE, Columbia University, Palisades, NY

PETER FRUMHOFF, Union of Concerned Scientists, Cambridge, MA

WILLIAM B. GAIL, Global Weather Corporation, Boulder, CO

MARY GLACKIN, The Weather Company, Washington, DC

TERRI S. HOGUE, Colorado School of Mines, Golden

EVERETTE JOSEPH, SUNY University at Albany, NY

RONALD “NICK” KEENER, JR., Duke Energy Corporation, Charlotte, NC

ROBERT KOPP, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ

L. RUBY LEUNG, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA

JONATHAN MARTIN, University of Wisconsin–Madison

JONATHAN OVERPECK, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

ALLISON STEINER, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

DAVID W. TITLEY, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park

DUANE WALISER, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena

Ocean Studies Board Liaison

DAVID HALPERN, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff

AMANDA STAUDT, Director

DAVID ALLEN, Senior Program Officer

LAURIE GELLER, Senior Program Officer

KATHERINE THOMAS, Senior Program Officer

LAUREN EVERETT, Program Officer

APRIL MELVIN, Associate Program Officer

AMANDA PURCELL, Program Officer

YASMIN ROMITTI, Research Associate

RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Integrating Social and Behavioral Sciences Within the Weather Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24865.
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SHELLY FREELAND, Financial Associate

ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate

MICHAEL HUDSON, Senior Program Assistant

ERIN MARKOVICH, Senior Program Assistant/Research Assistant

Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Integrating Social and Behavioral Sciences Within the Weather Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24865.
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BOARD ON ENVIRONMENAL CHANGE AND SOCIETY

RICHARD H. MOSS (Chair), Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD

JOSEPH L. ARVAI, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

F. STUART CHAPIN III, University of Alaska–Fairbanks

RUTH DEFRIES, Columbia University, New York, NY

HALLIE C. EAKIN, Arizona State University, Tempe

LORI M. HUNTER, University of Colorado Boulder

KATHARINE L. JACOBS, University of Arizona, Tucson

MICHAEL ANTHONEY MENDEZ, Yale University, New Haven, CT

RICHARD G. NEWELL, Resources for the Future, Washington, DC

MARY D. NICHOLS, California Air Resources Board, Sacramento

JONATHAN T. OVERPECK, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

ASEEM PRAKASH, University of Washington, Seattle

J. TIMMONS ROBERTS, Brown University, Providence, RI

MAXINE L. SAVITZ, Technology/Partnership Honeywell Inc., Los Angeles, CA

MICHAEL P. VANDENBERGH, Vanderbilt University Law School, Nashville, TN

JALONNE L. WHITE-NEWSOME, The Kresge Foundation, Troy, MI

ROBYN S. WILSON, The Ohio State University, Columbus

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff

TOBY WARDEN, Interim Board Director

JENNIFER HEIMBERG, Senior Program Officer

HEATHER KREIDLER, Associate Program Officer

JORDYN WHITE, Program Officer

TINA M. LATIMER, Program Coordinator

LETICIA GARCILAZO GREEN, Senior Program Assistant

MARY GHITELMAN, Senior Program Assistant

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Integrating Social and Behavioral Sciences Within the Weather Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24865.
×

BOARD ON HUMAN-SYSTEMS INTEGRATION

PASCALE CARAYON (Chair), University of Wisconsin–Madison

ELLEN BASS, Drexel University, Philadelphia, PA

SARA J. CZAJA, University of Miami Miller School of Medicine, FL

FRANCIS “FRANK” T. DURSO, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta

ANDREW S. IMADA, A.S. Imada and Associates, Carmichael, CA

EDMOND ISRAELSKI, AbbVie, North Chicago, IL

ELIZABETH LOFTUS, University of California, Irvine

FREDERICK OSWALD, Rice University, Houston, TX

KARL S. PISTER, University of California, Santa Cruz, Berkeley (Emeritus)

DAVID REMPEL, Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco

EMILIE ROTH, Roth Cognitive Engineering, Stanford, CA

BARBARA SILVERSTEIN, Washington State Department of Labor and Industries, Olympia

DAVID H. WEGMAN, University of Massachusetts, Lowell (Emeritus)

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff

TOBY WARDEN, Interim Board Director

HEATHER KREIDLER, Associate Program Officer

TINA M. LATIMER, Program Coordinator

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Integrating Social and Behavioral Sciences Within the Weather Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24865.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Integrating Social and Behavioral Sciences Within the Weather Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24865.
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Acknowledgments

This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process.

We thank the following individuals for their review of this report:

PATRICIA DeLUCIA, Texas Tech University, Lubbock

JOHN A. DUTTON, retired, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park

BARUCH FISCHHOFF, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA

JONATHAN GILLIGAN, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN

ROBERT GOLDHAMMER, International Association of Emergency Managers, Falls Church, VA

EVE GRUNTFEST, California Polytechnic State University, San Luis

JENNIFER HENDERSON, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg

AMANDA LEE HUGHES, Utah State University, Logan

NATHAN S. JOHNSON, WRAL-TV, Raleigh, NC

KEVIN KLOESEL, University of Oklahoma, Norman

DENNIS MILETI, University of Colorado Boulder

WILFRID A. NIXON, retired, The University of Iowa, Iowa City

LORI PEEK, University of Colorado Boulder

RICK ROSEN, retired, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Program Office, Silver Spring, MD

JOSEPH YURA, The University of Texas at Austin

Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Bonnie J. McCay, Rutgers University, and Kristie L. Ebi, University of Washington, Seattle. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Integrating Social and Behavioral Sciences Within the Weather Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24865.
×

National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies.

We would also like to thank numerous people who provided input to the Committee throughout the study process (see the list of names in Appendix C).

Page xiii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Integrating Social and Behavioral Sciences Within the Weather Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24865.
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Preface

During the time that we were wrapping up this report, the United States was struck by three tremendous weather events—Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria. Those events illustrated how the ever-more prolific production and dissemination of weather forecasts weaves through and interacts with our cultural values and behavioral norms, with numerous sectors of our economy (e.g., agriculture, commerce, energy, and water management), with a wide array of public policies, and much more.

Given today’s accelerating pace of social and technological change, and the warming of our atmosphere and oceans, our relationship to weather is rapidly evolving. The rise of social media and individualized communications have enriched and complicated the public–private partnerships that have delivered weather messages for decades; it also creates new opportunities for collaborative advances in decision support with weather forecasting, and new challenges with respect to accuracy, reliability, and quality control.

Social and behavioral science efforts to understand and inform the weather enterprise go back decades and have achieved many successes—including advances in our understanding of forecasting processes, warning perceptions, and evacuation behaviors, for example. Awareness of unmet needs among different segments of society has spawned a variety of exploratory studies in recent years, bringing to bear the expertise of psychologists, sociologists, economists, geographers, and others on a variety of important communication challenges. Already social scientists have helped the weather enterprise (the ecosystem of government agencies and private enterprise responsible for weather service provision) improve the clarity and utility of their messages for what the community now refers to as “impact-based decision support.” These efforts have found a toehold in the weather enterprise, but the social and behavioral sciences have yet to realize advances on the scale and scope realized by the meteorological sciences. Although the potential of social science for improving the value of weather services has been demonstrated, much more can and should be done.

Over the course of the past 15 months, our Committee was charged to offer guidance to government agencies and other institutions in the weather enterprise, on strategies for effectively integrating social and behavioral science knowledge and its application into meteorology, weather forecasting, and hazard preparedness. The Committee held multiple meetings and solicited input from several dozen scholars and practitioners

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Integrating Social and Behavioral Sciences Within the Weather Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24865.
×

coming from government agencies, academic institutions, and private-sector companies. Dr. Laurie Geller and her colleagues at the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (in particular Heather Kreidler and Erin Markovich) designed and executed the complicated logistics for these data collection exercises efficiently and creatively, enabling the Committee to cast a far wider net than initially seemed feasible. We are indebted to Dr. Geller and colleagues for their superb support in assessing and integrating the resulting diversity of evidence, and to those from across and beyond the weather enterprise who volunteered their time and insights to this report, especially our fellow Committee members.

The Committee’s report lays out a research agenda and points to opportunities for building capacity that offer the prospect of major returns on investment. Our hope is that the recommendations set forth will aid the weather enterprise in its investments and decisions going forward. This task has implications far beyond its nominal scope, given that weather hazards affect the safety, health, and well-being of all individuals, communities, and society at large.

Ann Bostrom and William Hooke
Co-Chairs, Committee on Advancing Social and Behavioral Science Research and Application Within the Weather Enterprise

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Integrating Social and Behavioral Sciences Within the Weather Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24865.
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Our ability to observe and forecast severe weather events has improved markedly over the past few decades. Forecasts of snow and ice storms, hurricanes and storm surge, extreme heat, and other severe weather events are made with greater accuracy, geographic specificity, and lead time to allow people and communities to take appropriate protective measures. Yet hazardous weather continues to cause loss of life and result in other preventable social costs.

There is growing recognition that a host of social and behavioral factors affect how we prepare for, observe, predict, respond to, and are impacted by weather hazards. For example, an individual’s response to a severe weather event may depend on their understanding of the forecast, prior experience with severe weather, concerns about their other family members or property, their capacity to take the recommended protective actions, and numerous other factors. Indeed, it is these factors that can determine whether or not a potential hazard becomes an actual disaster. Thus, it is essential to bring to bear expertise in the social and behavioral sciences (SBS)—including disciplines such as anthropology, communication, demography, economics, geography, political science, psychology, and sociology—to understand how people’s knowledge, experiences, perceptions, and attitudes shape their responses to weather risks and to understand how human cognitive and social dynamics affect the forecast process itself.

Integrating Social and Behavioral Sciences Within the Weather Enterprise explores and provides guidance on the challenges of integrating social and behavioral sciences within the weather enterprise. It assesses current SBS activities, describes the potential value of improved integration of SBS and barriers that impede this integration, develops a research agenda, and identifies infrastructural and institutional arrangements for successfully pursuing SBS-weather research and the transfer of relevant findings to operational settings.

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